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Analysis 2026 - Moneyball

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KillaKanga

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Money Ball – 2026

I started this last year. Not interested? Don’t come a knockin.

This is purely from an offensive standpoint. I’m setting my sights on ‘points for’ that should be enough to finish Top 10 (finals amirite??). If we get blasted going the other way prison style it won’t matter, but I’m just hoping this’ll keep me/us interested enough throughout the season to continue.
2024 – 10th scored 1964 = 286 goals kicked
2025 – 10th scored 1845 = 264 goals kicked (although Melb 14th scored 1902 AND North kicked 267!!)
So let’s aim for 290 goals and see where it gets us?
North scored a much improved 1805 in 2025 but blew 2365 the other way. So, if we don’t limit the overall score against to under 2000 we’re no chance.
2024 – Everyone with a % over 100 was top 10
2025 – Everyone over 100% and 10th was 97%
So the aim should be to take to ~100% -


2024

2025

2026

So far …

Nick Larkey

46

41

45


Paul Curtis

30

38

45


Cam Zurhaar

29

38

40


Jack Darling

---

24

10


Cooper Trembath

---

9

15


Jy Simpkin

11

12

15


Luke Parker

---

12

10


Colby McKercher

---

12

15


Jacob Konstanty

---

11

10


Lachie Doveston

---

---

15


Cooper Harvey

---

10

0


LDU

11

8

10


Harry Sheezel

14

8

10


Tom Powell

9

6

10


Dylan Stephans

---

6

2


Zane Duursma

9

4

6


George Wardlaw

7

4

5


Tristan Xerri

8

4

5


Bailey Scott

5

3

2


Robert HansenJr

4

3

3


Zac Fisher

---

2

2


Finn O’Sullivan

---

1

5


Matt Whitlock

---

1

5


Griffin Logue

---

1

0


Zac Banch

---

1

5


Blake Threadgold

---

---

0


Hugo Mikunda

---

---

0


Charlie Comben

3

---

0


TOTAL

244

267

290

 
I don't I think dramatically overestimated any one player's goals kicked potential.

I am hoping Sheez, LDU, Simpkin, Powell and McKercher can hit the scoreboard a little more regularly. Add Duursma and FOS to that too.
 
I think we need to score and beat a few top 8 teams to achieve anything. Cam Zurhaar might kick 40 goals because we punch down and he’s a flat track bully but that wont permeate to season wins. 40 goals when you play the bottom 6 games vs bottom 4 and another 2 against a potential bottom 4 he’ll kick 30 against them alone. Then do **** all
 

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I'd swap Jy's and JK's goal scoring.

I reckon Trembath could be good for a goal a game.
Yeah I started at the top then took some off JK hoping Trembath gets more looks.
I thought Jy might be more forward this year and kick a couple more.

TBH I chucked this together without doing a real forensic look. Just before Round 1 when it looks more settled I'll refine and set.
 
Yeah I started at the top then took some off JK hoping Trembath gets more looks.
I thought Jy might be more forward this year and kick a couple more.

TBH I chucked this together without doing a real forensic look. Just before Round 1 when it looks more settled I'll refine and set.

I'd like you to be wrong about Sheeze by another goal per game too.
 
I'd like you to be wrong about Sheeze by another goal per game too.
Man if Sheez could hit mid to high 20s or hell 30s I'd be that Southpark gif.

But I thought that last year and he hit 8. I hopefully I do the reverse knockers and he shoots past 10 goals in 6 games.
 
Man if Sheez could hit mid to high 20s or hell 30s I'd be that Southpark gif.

But I thought that last year and he hit 8. I hopefully I do the reverse knockers and he shoots past 10 goals in 6 games.
Yeah its hard to pick...

If last year was a bad year for him, third year blues maybe, and he returns to the 2024 form that saw him kick 12 goals and have 13 goal assists in 10 games after the bye then he could easily do that. Whether he gets that form again or not who knows...
 
Yeah its hard to pick...

If last year was a bad year for him, third year blues maybe, and he returns to the 2024 form that saw him kick 12 goals and have 13 goal assists in 10 games after the bye then he could easily do that. Whether he gets that form again or not who knows...
So someone so young was thrown back, forward and middle.

If he can settle as a mid 1st resting forward he'll kick 1-2 goals a games. Fingers crossed!
 
Man if Sheez could hit mid to high 20s or hell 30s I'd be that Southpark gif.

But I thought that last year and he hit 8. I hopefully I do the reverse knockers and he shoots past 10 goals in 6 games.
Sheezel spent time in defence last year; don't think he will this season
 

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Rd 1 113 (2599) 168.7%

Tiny sample size of 1 but after a few rounds these stats will start to look like a form line. We scored 113 for round 1. If we score 113 every round we'll end with 2599 points.

Aim moneyball aim:
~100%
290goals/1900 points

In the so far column I'll put total goals so far and a projected total goals for the end of the season based on goals per game.

eg 2 goals in round one is 46 goals projected on 2 goals a game. Looks like

2 -> 46

Again, sample size of 1 so a player without a goal week 1 projects to 0 for year. Reckon after 5 rounds we'll see some patterns become noticable.

2024

2025

2026

So far …

Nick Larkey

46

41

45
4 -> 92

Paul Curtis

30

38

45
1 -> 23

Cam Zurhaar

29

38

40
2 -> 46

Jack Darling

---

24

10
1 -> 23

Cooper Trembath

---

9

15
3 -> 69

Jy Simpkin

11

12

15
1 -> 23

Luke Parker

---

12

10
1 -> 23

Colby McKercher

---

12

15
1 -> 23

Jacob Konstanty

---

11

10
0 -> 0

Lachie Doveston

---

---

15
0 -> 0

Cooper Harvey

---

10

0
0 -> 0

LDU

11

8

10
0 -> 0

Harry Sheezel

14

8

10
0 -> 0

Tom Powell

9

6

10
0 -> 0

Dylan Stephans

---

6

2
1 -> 23

Zane Duursma

9

4

6
1 -> 23

George Wardlaw

7

4

5
0 -> 0

Tristan Xerri

8

4

5
0 -> 0

Bailey Scott

5

3

2
0 -> 0

Robert HansenJr

4

3

3
0 -> 0

Zac Fisher

---

2

2
0 -> 0

Finn O’Sullivan

---

1

5
0 -> 0

Matt Whitlock

---

1

5
0 -> 0

Griffin Logue

---

1

0
0 -> 0

Zac Banch

---

1

5
0 -> 0

Blake Threadgold

---

---

0
0 -> 0

Hugo Mikunda

---

---

0
0 -> 0

Charlie Comben

3

---

0
1 -> 23

TOTAL

244

267

290
17 -> 390
 
Rd 1 113 (2599) 168.7%
Rd 2 - 207 (2380) 116.3%


Moneyball aim:
~100%
290goals/1900 points




2024

2025

2026

So far …

Nick Larkey

46

41

45
10 -> 115

Paul Curtis

30

38

45
3 -> 34

Cam Zurhaar

29

38

40
4 -> 46

Jack Darling

---

24

10
1 -> 11

Cooper Trembath

---

9

15
3 -> 34

Jy Simpkin

11

12

15
1 -> 11

Luke Parker

---

12

10
1 -> 11

Colby McKercher

---

12

15
1 -> 11

Jacob Konstanty

---

11

10
1 -> 11

Lachie Doveston

---

---

15
1 -> 11

Cooper Harvey

---

10

0
0 -> 0

LDU

11

8

10
0 -> 0

Harry Sheezel

14

8

10
0 -> 0

Tom Powell

9

6

10
1 -> 11

Dylan Stephans

---

6

2
1 -> 11

Zane Duursma

9

4

6
1 -> 11

George Wardlaw

7

4

5
0 -> 0

Tristan Xerri

8

4

5
0 -> 0

Bailey Scott

5

3

2
0 -> 0

Robert HansenJr

4

3

3
0 -> 0

Zac Fisher

---

2

2
0 -> 0

Finn O’Sullivan

---

1

5
1 -> 11

Matt Whitlock

---

1

5
0 -> 0

Griffin Logue

---

1

0
0 -> 0

Zac Banch

---

1

5
0 -> 0
Luke McDonald
---

---

0
1 -> 11

Hugo Mikunda

---

---

0
0 -> 0

Charlie Comben

3

---

0
1 -> 11

TOTAL

244

267

290
32 -> 368
 
Last edited:
Rd 1 113 (2599) 168.7%
Rd 2 - 207 (2380) 116.3%
Rd 3 - 288 (2208) 116.6%


Moneyball aim:
~100%
290goals/1900 points



2024

2025

2026

So far …

Nick Larkey

46

41

45
12 -> 92

Paul Curtis

30

38

45
4 -> 30

Cam Zurhaar

29

38

40
5 -> 38

Jack Darling

---

24

10
1 -> 7

Cooper Trembath

---

9

15
5 -> 38

Jy Simpkin

11

12

15
1 -> 7

Luke Parker

---

12

10
1 -> 7

Colby McKercher

---

12

15
1 -> 7

Jacob Konstanty

---

11

10
1 -> 7

Lachie Doveston

---

---

15
2 -> 15

Cooper Harvey

---

10

0
0 -> 0

LDU

11

8

10
0 -> 0

Harry Sheezel

14

8

10
0 -> 0

Tom Powell

9

6

10
1 -> 7

Dylan Stephans

---

6

2
1 -> 7

Zane Duursma

9

4

6
4 -> 30

George Wardlaw

7

4

5
0 -> 0

Tristan Xerri

8

4

5
1 -> 7

Bailey Scott

5

3

2
0 -> 0

Robert HansenJr

4

3

3
0 -> 0

Zac Fisher

---

2

2
0 -> 0

Finn O’Sullivan

---

1

5
1 -> 7

Matt Whitlock

---

1

5
0 -> 0

Griffin Logue

---

1

0
0 -> 0

Zac Banch

---

1

5
0 -> 0
Luke McDonald
---

---

0
1 -> 7
Tom Blamires
---

---

0
1 -> 7

Charlie Comben

3

---

0
1 -> 7

TOTAL

244

267

290
44 -> 337
 
Rd 1 113 (2599) 168.7%
Rd 2 - 207 (2380) 116.3%
Rd 3 - 288 (2208) 116.6%
Rd 4 - 384 (2208) 115.3%


Moneyball aim:
~100%
290goals/1900 points





2024

2025

2026
Projection

Nick Larkey

46

41

45
14 -> 80

Paul Curtis

30

38

45
6 -> 34

Cam Zurhaar

29

38

40
6 -> 34

Jack Darling

---

24

10
2 -> 5

Cooper Trembath

---

9

15
8 -> 46

Jy Simpkin

11

12

15
2 -> 11

Luke Parker

---

12

10
1 -> 5

Colby McKercher

---

12

15
1 -> 5

Jacob Konstanty

---

11

10
1 -> 5

Lachie Doveston

---

---

15
2 -> 11

Cooper Harvey

---

10

0
0 -> 0

LDU

11

8

10
0 -> 0

Harry Sheezel

14

8

10
1 -> 5

Tom Powell

9

6

10
1 -> 5

Dylan Stephans

---

6

2
1 -> 5

Zane Duursma

9

4

6
7 -> 40

George Wardlaw

7

4

5
0 -> 0

Tristan Xerri

8

4

5
1 -> 5

Bailey Scott

5

3

2
0 -> 0

Robert HansenJr

4

3

3
0 -> 0

Zac Fisher

---

2

2
0 -> 0

Finn O’Sullivan

---

1

5
1 -> 5

Matt Whitlock

---

1

5
0 -> 0

Griffin Logue

---

1

0
0 -> 0

Zac Banch

---

1

5
0 -> 0
Luke McDonald
---

---

0
1 -> 5
Tom Blamires
---

---

0
1 -> 5

Charlie Comben

3

---

0
1 -> 5

TOTAL

244

267

290
58 -> 333
 
Last edited:

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Rd 1 113 (2599) 168.7%
Rd 2 - 207 (2380) 116.3%
Rd 3 - 288 (2208) 116.6%
Rd 4 - 384 (2208) 115.3%
Rd 5 - 450 (2070) 105.9%


Moneyball aim:
~100%
290goals/1900 points




2025

2026
Projection

Nick Larkey

46

41

45
15 -> 69

Paul Curtis

30

38

45
7 -> 32

Cam Zurhaar

29

38

40
6 -> 27

Jack Darling

---

24

10
3 -> 16

Cooper Trembath

---

9

15
10 -> 46

Jy Simpkin

11

12

15
2 -> 9

Luke Parker

---

12

10
1 -> 4

Colby McKercher

---

12

15
1 -> 4

Jacob Konstanty

---

11

10
1 -> 4

Lachie Doveston

---

---

15
2 -> 9

Cooper Harvey

---

10

0
0 -> 0

LDU

11

8

10
1 -> 4

Harry Sheezel

14

8

10
1 -> 4

Tom Powell

9

6

10
2 -> 9

Dylan Stephens

---

6

2
1 -> 4

Zane Duursma

9

4

6
7 -> 32

George Wardlaw

7

4

5
0 -> 0

Tristan Xerri

8

4

5
1 -> 4

Bailey Scott

5

3

2
0 -> 0

Robert HansenJr

4

3

3
0 -> 0

Zac Fisher

---

2

2
0 -> 0

Finn O’Sullivan

---

1

5
1 -> 4

Matt Whitlock

---

1

5
0 -> 0

Griffin Logue

---

1

0
0 -> 0

Zac Banch

---

1

5
1 -> 10
Luke McDonald
---

---

0
1 -> 4
Tom Blamires
---

---

0
1 -> 9

Charlie Comben

3

---

0
2 -> 5

TOTAL

244

267

290
67 -> 308
 
Rd 1 113 (2599) 168.7%
Rd 2 - 207 (2380) 116.3%
Rd 3 - 288 (2208) 116.6%
Rd 4 - 384 (2208) 115.3%
Rd 5 - 450 (2070) 105.9%
Rd 6 - 580 (2223) 120.8%


Moneyball aim:
~100%
299goals/1960 points






2025

2026
Projection

Nick Larkey

46

41

45
17 -> 65

Paul Curtis

30

38

45
13 -> 49

Cam Zurhaar

29

38

40
6 -> 27

Jack Darling

---

24

10
4 -> 15

Cooper Trembath

---

9

15
10 -> 49

Jy Simpkin

11

12

15
2 -> 7

Luke Parker

---

12

10
1 -> 3

Colby McKercher

---

12

15
2 -> 7

Jacob Konstanty

---

11

10
1 -> 3

Lachie Doveston

---

---

15
2 -> 8
Charlie Spargo
---

10

0
1 -> 3

LDU

11

8

10
2 -> 7

Harry Sheezel

14

8

10
2 -> 7

Tom Powell

9

6

10
3 -> 11

Dylan Stephens

---

6

2
2 -> 7

Zane Duursma

9

4

6
9 -> 34

George Wardlaw

7

4

5
0 -> 0

Tristan Xerri

8

4

5
1 -> 3

Bailey Scott

5

3

2
0 -> 0

Robert HansenJr

4

3

3
0 -> 0

Zac Fisher

---

2

2
0 -> 0

Finn O’Sullivan

---

1

5
1 -> 4

Matt Whitlock

---

1

5
0 -> 0

Griffin Logue

---

1

0
0 -> 0

Zac Banch

---

1

5
1 -> 10
Luke McDonald
---

---

0
1 -> 4
Tom Blamires
---

---

0
1 -> 9

Charlie Comben

3

---

0
2 -> 5

TOTAL

244

267

290
87 -> 333
 
Last edited:
Also a consideration is that scoring across the league is up ~3% this year.

That would equate to an increase of about 9 more goals a year required.

Ie the required 290 is actually 299 when accounting for the scoring trend.
 

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