Opinion 2026 Predictions and Prognostications - Rise or Fall?

[steve9798]

If we did finish top 4 it would be an amazing bounce back after one of the worst finals performances in living memory. A lot of our 2026 fortunes are riding on the hope that a 20 and 21 year olds can develop overnight into gun midfielders.

 

[Golumless]

If we did finish top 4 it would be an amazing bounce back after one of the worst finals performances in living memory. A lot of our 2026 fortunes are riding on the hope that a 20 and 21 year olds can develop overnight into gun midfielders.

It's worth noting that the last time that got bundled out straight set in their first finals series also bounced back to top 4. So, it's not an 'amazing bounceback' per se.

Just reset, make sure we don't lose our defensive strength, and we'll be fine. The danger for us comes is if we throw the baby out with the bathwater and we over correct trying to be more offensive with our ball movement (we do need to find more consistency in this aspect, but we need to be careful seeing we have the vast majority of the jigsaw in place; my thought is just take the handbrake off Max). The good news is we don't have an old list, and that's the scenario where a straight set bundle can become predictive.

 

[1970crow]

I reckon 6-8. Think we've got a finals core side now, but a normal run with injuries will probably see us around the mark we should have been this year. Can't see us getting better than Brisbane, Geelong, Collingwood, Hawks and then you've got GC and GWS to contend with.

Obviously pre fixture and assuming equal injury runs, I reckon Lions, Suns, Cats and Hawks will be a step ahead of GWS, us, Freo, Pies, Swans and Dogs. Fixture and injuries to put them in order.

 

[1970crow]

It's worth noting that the last time that got bundled out straight set in their first finals series also bounced back to top 4. So, it's not an 'amazing bounceback' per se.

Just reset, make sure we don't lose our defensive strength, and we'll be fine. The danger for us comes is if we throw the baby out with the bathwater and we over correct trying to be more offensive with our ball movement (we do need to find more consistency in this aspect, but we need to be careful seeing we have the vast majority of the jigsaw in place; my thought is just take the handbrake off Max). The good news is we don't have an old list, and that's the scenario where a straight set bundle can become predictive.

This is a terrible take. It was inhibiting our offensive ball movement that turned us into an average team over our last handful of games. Can’t believe you’re oblivious to that.

 

[Geoffa32]

I reckon we will be just outside top 4.

 

[Not Darryl Moss]

Collingwood drop (too old)
Geelong drop (GF curse, too old, probably still top 4 though)
Hawks drop (Gunston had his 2023 Tex swan song, won’t kick 70 next year)

Brisbane improve (Allan)
Gold Coast improve (Petracca)
Sydney improve (Curnow, adjust to Cox’s game plan)

St Kilda improve but think they will miss the 8.

Fremantle/GWS/WB stay the same.

I think we improve or worse stay the same.

I think we finish 3rd.

Saints - flag 2026/7 or bust.

 

[WeeBlake]

It's worth noting that the last time that got bundled out straight set in their first finals series also bounced back to top 4. So, it's not an 'amazing bounceback' per se.

Just reset, make sure we don't lose our defensive strength, and we'll be fine. The danger for us comes is if we throw the baby out with the bathwater and we over correct trying to be more offensive with our ball movement (we do need to find more consistency in this aspect, but we need to be careful seeing we have the vast majority of the jigsaw in place; my thought is just take the handbrake off Max). The good news is we don't have an old list, and that's the scenario where a straight set bundle can become predictive.

We need to correct (be more attacking) but not over-correct (be TOO attacking)

I think the problem has 2 parts - first problem is that our midfield can’t defend well enough. The Collingwood final is a good example, they pinged it around freely and we couldn’t get a hand on them.

Second problem is our whole team reverted to long bombs down the line far too often.

 

[1970crow]

We need to correct (be more attacking) but not over-correct (be TOO attacking)

I think the problem has 2 parts - first problem is that our midfield can’t defend well enough. The Collingwood final is a good example, they pinged it around freely and we couldn’t get a hand on them.

Second problem is our whole team reverted to long bombs down the line far too often.

Long bombs down the line is Nicks’ deliberate strategy. It’s not player error.

 

[PCORF]

If we did finish top 4 it would be an amazing bounce back after one of the worst finals performances in living memory. A lot of our 2026 fortunes are riding on the hope that a 20 and 21 year olds can develop overnight into gun midfielders.

Also ran into Collingwood and Hawthorn, two teams with good records vs Adelaide at Adelaide Oval but both had dropped H&A games to us. They were always going to learn and we had no chance in the finals last season.

Next season will be tougher I can guarantee you that. But if we can win more of the close ones again we'll be back in the finals.

 

[Doctor B]

2025 season vs last 5 games of the season
Our last 5 games included playing Roos & Eagles

Goals scored 3rd - 13th
Shots on goal 4th - 13th
Goals /inside 50 3rd - 8th
Goal assists 3rd - 13th
Score origin
Defensive half 3rd - 11th
Forward half 4th - 11th
Centre bounce 11th - 17th

 

[LoBu]

Obviously pre fixture and assuming equal injury runs, I reckon Lions, Suns, Cats and Hawks will be a step ahead of GWS, us, Freo, Pies, Swans and Dogs. Fixture and injuries to put them in order.

Not sure Suns and Hawks are a certainty to be ahead of the pack in 2026, not much improvement during the trade period for either on the balance of things.

 

[1970crow]

2025 season vs last 5 games of the season
Our last 5 games included playing Roos & Eagles

Goals scored 3rd - 13th
Shots on goal 4th - 13th
Goals /inside 50 3rd - 8th
Goal assists 3rd - 13th
Score origin
Defensive half 3rd - 11th
Forward half 4th - 11th
Centre bounce 11th - 17th

Nicks choking hard and reverting to his ‘under pressure’ strategies.

And imagine the comparison last v first 20 would be a little worse, given they represent 20% of the total season numbers.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

2025 season vs last 5 games of the season
Our last 5 games included playing Roos & Eagles

Goals scored 3rd - 13th
Shots on goal 4th - 13th
Goals /inside 50 3rd - 8th
Goal assists 3rd - 13th
Score origin
Defensive half 3rd - 11th
Forward half 4th - 11th
Centre bounce 11th - 17th

Reverse of good preparation for finals.

We didn't take the opportunity to freshen players up for finals.

Was all about this week, when we should have been thinking about finals once it was obvious we made them.

 

[1970crow]

Not sure Suns and Hawks are a certainty to be ahead of the pack in 2026, not much improvement during the trade period for either on the balance of things.

If only the trade period was the only factor. I see those 2 clubs on the improve with high end senior coaches that are continuing to develop and improve their performance ceilings. Cats I think come back to the pack in September, but expecting a big H&A.

One thing about us is certain. We’ll be doing everything we can to keep everything the same as 2025. We won’t be looking to make structural or strategy improvements. We’ll believe we’ve nailed it and it’s all about working harder, continuity and now having an extra 2 finals games under nearly everybody’s belts.

 

[WeeBlake]

2025 season vs last 5 games of the season
Our last 5 games included playing Roos & Eagles

Goals scored 3rd - 13th
Shots on goal 4th - 13th
Goals /inside 50 3rd - 8th
Goal assists 3rd - 13th
Score origin
Defensive half 3rd - 11th
Forward half 4th - 11th
Centre bounce 11th - 17th

The wheels fell off well before finals

 

[1970crow]

The wheels fell off well before finals

Unfortunately it was impossible to predict that Nicks would choke hard and revert to the defensive forward strategy leading into September.

 

[Southerntakeover]

No, now you’re picking on men.

Anyway, it’s a stupid opinion that if you don’t expect to finish high up you’re shitting yourself and a sook

Leaving aside the gender stuff, it's just flat out stupid.

Accusing people of being afraid, in whatever moronic terms, implies that there's something bad which is unlikely to happen or yet to. We don't need to fear our club being the biggest finals busts of all time, and unable to compete. We already know that they are.

There is absolutely no reason to think that this club is capable of better. We didn't improve the list, it's the same players that humiliated the colours twice in september, the same dud coaches, the same smug adminstration.

I'm not afraid we're ass, I know it for a fact.

 

[1970crow]

Reverse of good preparation for finals.

We didn't take the opportunity to freshen players up for finals.

Was all about this week, when we should have been thinking about finals once it was obvious we made them.

being all about this week is in our DNA. It dates back to Saint Neil and has t changed since.

 

[1970crow]

Leaving aside the gender stuff, it's just flat out stupid.

Accusing people of being afraid, in whatever moronic terms, implies that there's something bad which is unlikely to happen or yet to. We don't need to fear our club being the biggest finals busts of all time, and unable to compete. We already know that they are.

There is absolutely no reason to think that this club is capable of better. We didn't improve the list, it's the same players that humiliated the colours twice in september, the same dud coaches, the same smug adminstration.

I'm not afraid we're ass, I know it for a fact.

I reckon we went into finals with a sizeable portion of players who had ??? on performing in finals or just general ability to perform to a B grade AFL level regularly. ROB, Keays, Hinge, Berry, Pedlar, Cumming, Taylor, Smith & Murray. Add cooked Tex, injured Sog and Dawson, underdone Rach and likely gassed Curtin and that’s over half the 23 with ??? over what we’ll get in the most intense games of the year.

I expect the 18 win season is likely to turn out to be our usual one off spike and we’ll return to our usual 4-10 competing area, which was always the design of an AFC rebuild anyway.

 

[Not Darryl Moss]

2025 season vs last 5 games of the season
Our last 5 games included playing Roos & Eagles

Goals scored 3rd - 13th
Shots on goal 4th - 13th
Goals /inside 50 3rd - 8th
Goal assists 3rd - 13th
Score origin
Defensive half 3rd - 11th
Forward half 4th - 11th
Centre bounce 11th - 17th

Seems that we were indeed gassed after the last bye.

 

[kirky]

Seems that we were indeed gassed after the last bye.

Disagree - we won against Doggies away, belted both Gold Coast and Port Adelaide before Hawthorn game.

Reckon Nicks got nervous as finals approached.

 

[BRL121]

Seems that we were indeed gassed after the last bye.

On what evidence? Since every result was a win in the main season, perhaps being gassed is the best strategy.

The real issue is the anaemic finals performance. We topped the first competition, but completely failed the second.

 

[Doctor B]

If only the trade period was the only factor. I see those 2 clubs on the improve with high end senior coaches that are continuing to develop and improve their performance ceilings. Cats I think come back to the pack in September, but expecting a big H&A.

One thing about us is certain. We’ll be doing everything we can to keep everything the same as 2025. We won’t be looking to make structural or strategy improvements. We’ll believe we’ve nailed it and it’s all about working harder, continuity and now having an extra 2 finals games under nearly everybody’s belts.

Ranking Hardwick, Mitchell and Nicks, its not hard picking 1 & 2.

Later in the season I heard him in a press conference (I'm fairly certain after a win) mention how hard confidence and form are to keep, who knows how long ours will last.
A brilliant way of driving collective underperformance.

 

[LoBu]

If you listened to any of the weekly sen champion data slots, Hoyne consistently said Adelaide wouldn't challenge as we were very bad for scoring from stoppages, almost 18th. We were good at scoring from turnover though.

This is why we need to start winning stoppages, unfortunately only organic growth for 2026 though, could be enough but I expect Draper and Curtin (especially Draper) won't be at the elite level next year.

 

[1970crow]

On what evidence? Since every result was a win in the main season, perhaps being gassed is the best strategy.

The real issue is the anaemic finals performance. We topped the first competition, but completely failed the second.

Surely 2 goal wins against the bottom 2 sides makes you consider our pre-finals form. You’re not seriously one of those that believe all wins are good wins?