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Position 2026 Rucks

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Average hitouts per game last year: 82.

Average hitouts per game (excl the cancelled one) in the preseason: 76.5

Confidence intervals


  • 95% CI: (69.9, 83.1) last year's 82 is just inside, so you can't reject "no change" at the 5% level
  • 90% CI: (71.2, 81.8) -- 82 falls outside, so you can reject at the 10% level

The direction of the signal is fairly convincing. There's roughly a 95% chance hitouts have genuinely dropped. But 8 pre-season games can't tell you how much. The true drop could be 1-2 hitouts (trivial noise) or 10+ (a major structural shift). You'll need roughly ~19 games before you can pin down the size of the effect with any confidence. Also worth noting these are pre-season games where intensity/effort may differ from the regular season.
 
Reposting my post here from the rucks thread for visibility:

Average hitouts per game last year: 82.

Average hitouts per game (excl the cancelled one) in the preseason: 76.5

Confidence intervals


  • 95% CI: (69.9, 83.1) last year's 82 is just inside, so you can't reject "no change" at the 5% level
  • 90% CI: (71.2, 81.8) -- 82 falls outside, so you can reject at the 10% level

The direction of the signal is fairly convincing. There's roughly a 95% chance hitouts have genuinely dropped. But 8 pre-season games can't tell you how much. The true drop could be 1-2 hitouts (trivial noise) or 10+ (a major structural shift). You'll need roughly ~19 games before you can pin down the size of the effect with any confidence. Also worth noting these are pre-season games where intensity/effort may differ from the regular season.
How does this compare to previous preseason games?
Feel they always play differently to the real thing
 
First draft side has English and TDK purely on the idea that you want the atheltic types that can outjump their opponents and get involved in link-up stuff. Luke Jackson would be another, I guess. Neiter at absolute top dollar. vs Xerri /Gawn /...

Is that the way to play it?

Other way of looking at it (from outside looking in) would be to go with lower priced scrubs and wait for prioce drops on the assumption that a bad match-up / a game where they get a few FAs will lead to all the topliners shedding value at some stage and then pick them up cheaper.
 

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