Canberra Federals, if Tassie can be run by a state government, go one better and get the federal government to run the club.
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20th AFL Team
- Thread starter lionshine
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My preference would be a new standalone team. Just as Tasmania won't have to deal with a second-hand club, I'd prefer not to either.
Yes, 19 teams can be done, but 20 is just so much neater.
If it came to a relocation, I'd prefer it be a Melbourne club. Sydney is too big to only have one club.
Yes, 19 teams can be done, but 20 is just so much neater.
If it came to a relocation, I'd prefer it be a Melbourne club. Sydney is too big to only have one club.
If it's run by the federal government, does that mean the team doesn't really spend much time actually in Canberra?
I didn't think of that, overseas for a lot of the year, that wouldn't work.
Definitely should be looking for a 20th team, adds another game per round which the TV stations who have the new broadcast deal would be extremely happy about.
Also, there is no need to have any byes especially due to having an odd number of teams, there is always a team or two who gets an advantage or disadvantage depending on when their byes are in the year.
As for location, best to push into new areas instead of further adding into some of the existing stronghold markets.
Canberra is a good idea, another team in Brisbane or Sydney helps grow the code, a new entity on the Sunshine Coast has strong appeal too.
I've been an advocate for 22 teams in total (21 round season) for some time now so there will never be any argument from me about expansion, just have a preference where they should be.
Also, there is no need to have any byes especially due to having an odd number of teams, there is always a team or two who gets an advantage or disadvantage depending on when their byes are in the year.
As for location, best to push into new areas instead of further adding into some of the existing stronghold markets.
Canberra is a good idea, another team in Brisbane or Sydney helps grow the code, a new entity on the Sunshine Coast has strong appeal too.
I've been an advocate for 22 teams in total (21 round season) for some time now so there will never be any argument from me about expansion, just have a preference where they should be.
RedV3x
It's about time some mods started being fair
No, they'd be the GWS Giants in a new guise.
I can definitely see another Brisbane or Sydney side coming in, but I don't think either would be ready for team 20.
The Lions are doing well with crowds at the moment, but they're about to get a big capacity boost with the Gabba development. I think they'll have to prove they can consistently fill the new Gabba before a second Brisbane team is considered. Also unsure where one would go, it's got a western corridor, but it's much smaller than Western Sydney.
Sydney doesn't even have their second side playing fully within the city. I think GWS needs to be better settled before a third team is considered.
Sunshine Coast is an interesting one. They're on track for 600k people by 2050, fuelled by southern immigration. And it could be an opportunity to get a team there before the NRL.
I also wouldn't be surprised if NZ was on the cards for Team 21 or 22.
Obviously, but still a stand alone club. Did you mean to say a start up?
Perth looks like it's becoming the front-runner for the 18th NRL team. I wonder how that'd affect WA3 as AFL20.
Would the AFL look to counter the NRL's entry with a third team? Or does it make WA3 less of the low-risk/low-reward option to complement Tasmania?
The WA government seems supportive of the NRL bid. It could mean they'd be less likely to make accommodations for WA3.
The NRL team and WA3 would both be targeting a similar demographic - sports fans disenfranchised with Freo and West Coast. The NRL team would also have an advantage with greater crossover with existing West Coast and Freo fans (it's easier to go for two teams in different sports).
It would also be easier for the NRL team to be considered a success. If it gets 15k crowds, it's in the top 8 for NRL crowds. If WA3 gets 15k crowds, it's sitting in 16th for AFL crowds, and embarrassingly low behind Freo and West Coast.
An NRL team is no risk to the current AFL WA teams, but it could affect the set up of WA3, taking away early fans, sponsorships and government support. My hope is that the AFL doesn't add WA3 as a defensive move in a city they've already shored up.
Would the AFL look to counter the NRL's entry with a third team? Or does it make WA3 less of the low-risk/low-reward option to complement Tasmania?
The WA government seems supportive of the NRL bid. It could mean they'd be less likely to make accommodations for WA3.
The NRL team and WA3 would both be targeting a similar demographic - sports fans disenfranchised with Freo and West Coast. The NRL team would also have an advantage with greater crossover with existing West Coast and Freo fans (it's easier to go for two teams in different sports).
It would also be easier for the NRL team to be considered a success. If it gets 15k crowds, it's in the top 8 for NRL crowds. If WA3 gets 15k crowds, it's sitting in 16th for AFL crowds, and embarrassingly low behind Freo and West Coast.
An NRL team is no risk to the current AFL WA teams, but it could affect the set up of WA3, taking away early fans, sponsorships and government support. My hope is that the AFL doesn't add WA3 as a defensive move in a city they've already shored up.
I don't think the AFL will try to do that. I'm struggling to see the comp past 20 teams tbh. It'll be Tassie next then either Canberra or NT.
Mr Taswegian
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I wonder which other place would most likely fill that 20 th spot then,most likely will be between Darwin and Canberra but I'm not sure either are ready for a team for at least another 10 years.
Mr Taswegian
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How many more years down the track do you think a 20th team will be?
I know Darwin is a romantic option, but I just can't see it happening any time in the next thirty years (without a population boom). They have fewer people than Toowoomba and no surrounding population to draw from. I'd be happy to be proven wrong, as I think it would be amazing if they pulled it off, but I can't see it working.
Canberra is pretty much already ready. We could have a team on the field a couple years after the AFL gives a greenlight. We already have 500k-plus people, a large AFL-supporting population and regular crowds. We hosted six games this year (four men's, two AFLW). This year Manuka Oval hosted more people than Giants Stadium (over two fewer games).
Team 20 will come in some time around 2028-2030. By then Greater Canberra will have 600k people. And that'd give GWS enough time to plan their strategic pivot to Sydney.
Our only drawback would be the stadium, which is too small at the moment. Though we would be guaranteed sell outs for the entire season.
The Manuka Oval masterplan has future phases of a redevelopment getting the oval up to a touch under 20k. Development seems to have stalled (as far as I can tell), but the plans are there and they could theoretically be tweaked to add a few thousand.
The longest stretch the AFL has gone with odd teams (in the past century, anyway) is four seasons, between the Crows' and Freo's entry.
Is 2027 still the expected Tasmanian entry? If so, I would guess 2031 by the latest. My guess is 2029 to give a slightly bigger draft gap compared to the GC/GWS entry.
Mr Taswegian
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2027 has been suggested as the most likely entry date although 2025 has also been suggested.
I would think 2027 to be the most likely date, too. I think 2025 was the optimistic date back when Gutwein started playing hard ball.
If 2027 is the Tasmanian entry, I think 2029 is very do-able for Canberra (if we're chosen).
Mr Taswegian
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Have you ever heard the AFL suggest Canberra as a possible location for a team?
Ever? In 1982, the general manager (then of the VFL), said Canberra would "almost certainly" be represented in the league in the future.
In modern times, no.
But in modern times, the AFL doesn't really publicly speculate about future teams (until things are pretty certain). Any noise for future expansion has mostly come from unsolicited bids, or non-official AFL media.
Noise around Tasmania and NT originally came from their government bids. It took a senate inquiry for Andrew Demetriou to comment on Tasmania. And another ballsy move by a premier to finally get things moving.
Most noise for the NT has come from their recent government bid, or from public comments from Eddie McGuire, Nathan Buckley or Andrew McLeod (definitely not AFL official). Noise about Newcastle only came from Sheedy. Alex Jesaulenko did something similar for Canberra about 15 years ago.
So, there's absolutely no certainty that Canberra's in the running for a team any time soon, but history suggests a 20th team to come with Tasmania. And WA3 and Canberra are the only two options that make any logical sense in the short-to-medium term.
RedV3x
It's about time some mods started being fair
No effect at all IMO as WA3 is very unlikely.
No.
WA3 makes little sense what-so-ever.
Yes. There is a vacant stadium built for the Force available. what is there to lose.
The WA government shafted attempted to shaft WA2 so I don't see it being helpful of WA3.
NO. NRL would be targeting NRL fans and AFL targeting AFL fans.
What, both of them ?
They didn't do it with the Force - did they, so why would they with the NRL ?
You mean like GWS - yes, but that means FA doesn't it. (except on BF)
Only the reduction in potential sponsorship is real and the hierarchy is that sponsorship goes to the top teams (unless special circumstances exist)
Don't worry, they wont.
WA3 makes the most sense if they were to add a 20th team. They don’t want another money draining team. They would need a team that can’t stand by its self.
Go back and watch Eddie’s segment on FC. He knows
Go back and watch Eddie’s segment on FC. He knows
The 20th team will most likely be from SA or WA. It’s just what deal they can get down with the Government and State football boards. Perths extra 800,000 population and possible big sponsorship more likely.
Mr Taswegian
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Well I think Canberra should have a team being the nation's capital,so good luck with it
SA government apparently have paid $10m for ‘Magic round’ would they pay that all year for another AFL team?
North Adelaide Redlegs and take over the North East of Adelaide? Can they capture the Neutral supporters? And get a % of the SANFL supporters to convert from the Rooster and Norwood? Or do you just go with a new team? Not sure but either way it’s a 20 year play and is sure to pay off compared to Cairns-Darwin team or GWS ect.
North Adelaide Redlegs and take over the North East of Adelaide? Can they capture the Neutral supporters? And get a % of the SANFL supporters to convert from the Rooster and Norwood? Or do you just go with a new team? Not sure but either way it’s a 20 year play and is sure to pay off compared to Cairns-Darwin team or GWS ect.
If the AFL is set on expansion and not relocation, then team 19 and 20 should be Tassie and Canberra, and not necessarily in that order. I think that's fair and it covers a state without representation and our capital city.
I agree with Canberra Pear on the NT but if the AFL laid out a strong plan for it with high probability of success then I'm all down for it.
WA3 and SA3 sound nice as they are AR heartlands, but I'd rather see the government and investors improve the SANFL and WAFL, make those leagues stronger, and give more resources to those clubs.
Of course those leagues will never be on par with the V/AFL but they are still great contributions to the game and economies of their respective states, and to see them improve would be totally awesome.
As far as I can remember only Norwood and East Perth had AFL ambitions. Most Norwood fans I've spoken to prefer to stay in the SANFL.
I agree with Canberra Pear on the NT but if the AFL laid out a strong plan for it with high probability of success then I'm all down for it.
WA3 and SA3 sound nice as they are AR heartlands, but I'd rather see the government and investors improve the SANFL and WAFL, make those leagues stronger, and give more resources to those clubs.
Of course those leagues will never be on par with the V/AFL but they are still great contributions to the game and economies of their respective states, and to see them improve would be totally awesome.
As far as I can remember only Norwood and East Perth had AFL ambitions. Most Norwood fans I've spoken to prefer to stay in the SANFL.
Mr Taswegian
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Tasmania is almost guaranteed to be entering in 2027 so maybe aim for Canberra in 2030.
Will you be leaving North Melbourne to barrack for the new Tassie team?
