20th AFL Team

[threenewpadlocks]

Our national sport is Surf Lifesaving, clearly

 

[Canberra Pear]

Was discussing this on the Tasmania thread, but got told to move it over here.

I think it's worth noting that while Tasmania has gone through so much to get their team, I don't think the burden will be as high for the 20th team - whether it's a third Perth team or Canberra.

Firstly, Tasmania really forced the AFL's hand. Expansion wasn't on the radar in that timeframe. The AFL gave Tasmania ridiculous hurdles, but they've met them, and now cleared the path for the 20th team.

We've established Perth is a big market, it's got already got a suitable stadium. It's not without its problems, but it will long-term be an easier set up than Tasmania.

Canberra is also a bigger market than Tasmania. Greater Canberra has more than double the population of Greater Hobart; its population growth is much greater; plus its median income is 54% higher. Canberra will have government funding (which all Canberran sports teams get), but they don't need "Tassie level money" to be sustainable.

Unless the NT somehow miraculously gets up, I expect Team 20 to be more able to stand on their own than Team 19 (less distro, less govt funding etc). That being said, bring on Tasmania!

 

[speedpeck23]

I see your misunderstanding.

Southport is on the Gold Coast, not Brisbane. There is no way a southport team would be playing out of Victoria Park, and there is no way a Southport team would be any more attractive to the Brisbane market than the Gold Coast already is.

Thanks for that.

Given the AFL has alluded to the possibility of a second AFL club in Brisbane, where do you think they may consider locating that club ?

 

[Canberra Pear]

Thanks for that.

Given the AFL has alluded to the possibility of a second AFL club in Brisbane, where do you think they may consider locating that club ?

Have they alluded to a second Brisbane team?

All I've ever heard was a journo ask and Dillon said "never say never". Which is probably what he'd say asked about Bunbury, Cairns or NZ as well.

 

[RedV3x]

Australian football is played on

....ovals......
most ovals in W.A. are named in fact "ovals" except for some "reserves" or "parks"etc
In fact, the only only oval in W.A. that I could find with "cricket" in it's name is the WACA
and football is no longer played at the WACA.

 

[hampton]

....ovals......
most ovals in W.A. are named in fact "ovals" except for some "reserves" or "parks"etc
In fact, the only only oval in W.A. that I could find with "cricket" in it's name is the WACA
and football is no longer played at the WACA.

The indigenous game had very English roots being played on cricket ovals and adapting rules from rugby. Using the word indigenous is hilarious to refer to Australian rules as it implies it’s been here before colonial settlers, yet it’s very well documented origin was as a pastime to keep cricketers fit. My gosh there’s so much spin from afl house that is bought hook line and sinker.

Maybe if we were playing Marn grook at the MCG, but we’re not.

 

[RedV3x]

England? I guess football's not as big in Wigan or Leeds but that's about it.

If you look at EPL map, EPL teams only exist central England. From Colchester to Leeds and from Cornwall to Bath.
Wales is rugby union and England is a part of the UK. That's hardly uniform.

US ok, you're right as Football isn't as big on the West Coast. Still have big teams in SF, San Diego and LA.

American Football is more popular in the South but the NFL has only 32 teams in 22 states that's NFL teams less than half of U.S.A. states.



So, if you believe in the idea of a national sport give me your criteria so what criteria?

 

[RedV3x]

The indigenous game

The indigenous game was inspired by a handful of colonials to keep cricketers fit during winter.
There were many influences to the early indigenous game but definitely NOT rugby.
In fact it is recorded that Tom Wills advised against adopting any rugby rules.
This can be seen in the first ten rules of the newly created indigenous game by absence of any rugby rules
and rules contre to rugby. Throwing, tackling and running (unless to kick) were banned.
The first games of the indigenous game were not played on ovals but open rectangular spaces.
Only when cricket saw the crowd and playing attraction of the indigenous game did cricket suggest the availability of their ovals.

Now you view of Australian sporting history is hilariously false.

You still haven't answered whether you believe in the idea of a national sport and it's criteria.
You're acting like a petulant Donald avoiding questions by creating distractions.

 

[The_Wookie]

The indigenous game had very English roots being played on cricket ovals and adapting rules from rugby. Using the word indigenous is hilarious to refer to Australian rules as it implies it’s been here before colonial settlers, yet it’s very well documented origin was as a pastime to keep cricketers fit. My gosh there’s so much spin from afl house that is bought hook line and sinker.

Maybe if we were playing Marn grook at the MCG, but we’re not.

Both rugby, cambridge and sheffield rules were drawn from - the creators very much not wanting the game to be like rugby.

Its formation and creation in a pub in Melbourne is historically documented and not up for debate. Indigenous does not exclusively mean aboriginal, it means native to the territory, and by definition the game is native to Australia.

 

[The_Wookie]

origin discussion is for another thread. take it there

 

[RedV3x]

In any case, 19th century "football" was interchangeable enough in the sense that there were still times that teams primarily playing different codes wouldn't even know what rules they were playing until they met each other, and that players would shift between one code and another if they moved city etc.

In any case, 19th century English football was interchangeable enough in the sense that there were still times that teams primarily playing different rules wouldn't even know what rules they were playing until they met each other, and that players would shift between one set of rules and another if they moved city etc.

By comparison Gaelic Football was and had been well organised for hundreds of years as part of Gaelic games.
There was a time when English Football was codified but it is not that period.
At that time all English Football looked like one almighty scrap.

Australian Football being Australian and indigenous is as much because it's a product of how it evolved and emerged and differentiated itself from other football codes over time.

The reason why Australian Football took off like a shot from a gun was that the creators had hit upon the basics of the game being a kick and catch game, for whatever undetermined influence but mainly by experimentation. The kick and catch game completely opened up the game as a spectacle and led to Australian Football being so popular and spreading around the colonies. The film, "The English game" displays how professionalism finally opened Association Football to the game something like we know it as today. Previous to that it was hard to distinguish Association Football from Rugby rules football.

Now this is relevant because the British establishment did everything in it's power to inhibit the development of what we now know as Australian Football in N.S.W. and Queensland. Today, the AFL is trying to reclaim those somewhat lost territories. The AFL has established four AFL teams in those states and we are questioning should there be more AFL teams in those two states. Is a 20th AFL team going to be in N.S.W. or Queensland ?

 

[speedpeck23]

Have they alluded to a second Brisbane team?

Yes

 

[Canberra Pear]

Yes

Can you provide some links then?

Because all I've read is an article where Dillon was asked and replied with "never say never", and from what I can tell, the whole narrative around it has stemmed from that with any further contribution from the AFL.

Happy to be proven wrong though if you've got the links.

 

[GC2015]

Can you provide some links then?

Because all I've read is an article where Dillon was asked and replied with "never say never", and from what I can tell, the whole narrative around it has stemmed from that with any further contribution from the AFL.

Happy to be proven wrong though if you've got the links.

It's worth pointing out that there was more to Dillion's 20th team quotes last year than just 'never say never' when it came expanding Queensland footy. He actually talked about the NT and North Queensland first before mentioning a third team in Perth and the last area he brought up was Canberra (see below). So what does he mean by North Queensland? A standalone team in Cairns/Townsville? A combined NQ + NT team that represents the whole north? An SEQ team with a North QLD presence (essentially what the Suns are currently doing but in another area of QLD that's not having as much success)?

Given the number of variables at play, it might be anyone's guess who is the favourite for the new AFL side. Last year Dillon was coy.

"We have got interest from the NT, there's interest in north Queensland.

"People have been talking about a third team out of WA, [or] Canberra, so it's great that there is interest. Long may that debate continue."

Beyond Tasmania, the race for the AFL's 20th team is heating up

The race for the location of the AFL’s 20th team is heating up. As powerbrokers across the nation are starting to stake their claims, Sean Lawson and Cody Atkinson look at the options.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Canberra Pear]

It's worth pointing out that there was more to Dillion's 20th team quotes last year than just 'never say never' when it came expanding Queensland footy. He actually talked about the NT and North Queensland first before mentioning a third team in Perth and the last area he brought up was Canberra (see below). So what does he mean by North Queensland? A standalone team in Cairns/Townsville? A combined NQ + NT team that represents the whole north? An SEQ team with a North QLD presence (essentially what the Suns are currently doing but in another area of QLD that's not having as much success)?

But Dillon has still never brought up SEQ has he? He's mentioned there have been talk about WA, Cairns, NQ and Canberra, but hasn't brought up a second Brisbane side. All I've heard him say on that subject is after (after being asked) "never say never".

So when speedpeck says the AFL have alluded to a second Brisbane team, I'm yet to see a time that they have.

Footy is going great in SEQ, and I can see a third team there in the future. But the entire narrative that has come out of Brisbane as Team 20 seems to have spawned from an offhanded three-worded deflection.

 

[GC2015]

But Dillon has still never brought up SEQ has he? He's mentioned there have been talk about WA, Cairns, NT and Canberra, but hasn't brought up a second Brisbane side. All I've heard him say on that subject is after (after being asked) "never say never".

So when speedpeck says the AFL have alluded to a second Brisbane team, I'm yet to see a time that they have.

Footy is going great in SEQ, and I can see a third team there in the future. But the entire narrative that has come out of Brisbane as Team 20 seems to have spawned from an offhanded three-worded deflection.

Here's what he said when asked about a third team in Queensland and he immediately brought up how well the Lions are doing in the Brisbane market straight after alluding to a third QLD team potentially being a possibility:

“If you look at the rate of participation and the talent coming out of Queensland at the moment … you never say never,” Dillon said when asked about the prospect of a third team based in the Sunshine State.

“Brisbane (Lions) is going really well at the moment and the crowds that they are getting, every single one of their games is a major event in Brisbane.

Then he went on to say that he believes the major growth for the AFL over the next decade will come from QLD & NSW:

“By 2033 we want to have 1m participants across Australia. We were just under 600,000 last year. So there’s going to be big growth for us over the next 6-8 years … and we still see the big growth to come from Queensland and New South Wales.

“They will be the drivers of that growth.”

 

[Canberra Pear]

Here's what he said when asked about a third team in Queensland and he immediately brought up how well the Lions are doing in the Brisbane market straight after alluding to a third QLD team potentially being a possibility:


Then he went on to say that he believes the major growth for the AFL over the next decade will come from QLD & NSW:

So he was up in Queensland, talking about growth, and then a journo asked him about a a second Brisbane team. team. Dillon continued talking about growth and then gave a deflection.

And other than those three words, have you ever heard an AFL official speak of a second Brisbane team?

As far as I can tell, this whole movement was based on Dillon pumping up Queensland and then not wanting to put a dampener on that when asked that question.

He would've said the same if you asked him in Newcastle or New Zealand as well.

 

[RedV3x]

So he was up in Queensland, talking about growth, and then a journo asked him about a a second Brisbane team. team. Dillon continued talking about growth and then gave a deflection.

The other side of the coin is that he didn't specifically name a city.
Nobody has specifically named where Pth3 would come from.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Yes

Most of us will be dead before Brisbane has a 2nd team

 

[RedV3x]

Most of us will be dead before Brisbane has a 2nd team

That's the sort of thing I used to hear way back and then the Sydney Swans became a success and then the Brisbane Lions became a success and then the Gold became a success and now GWS are threatening to become a success.
With Queensland Australian Football participation booming and providing huge development numbers there is logic in not only rewarding Queensland with another AFL team but also putting an AFL team where there is most development.

 

[speedpeck23]

So he was up in Queensland, talking about growth, and then a journo asked him about a a second Brisbane team. team. Dillon continued talking about growth and then gave a deflection.

And other than those three words, have you ever heard an AFL official speak of a second Brisbane team?

As far as I can tell, this whole movement was based on Dillon pumping up Queensland and then not wanting to put a dampener on that when asked that question.

He would've said the same if you asked him in Newcastle or New Zealand as well.

It's all about the Victoria Park Stadium 63,000 seat capacity in the heart of Brisbane. The AFL would be keen to use it most weeks .

 

[Aussie in exile]

It's all about the Victoria Park Stadium 63,000 seat capacity in the heart of Brisbane. The AFL would be keen to use it most weeks .

I always thought that Canberra would follow Tassie as the neXt team, but now I'm thinking WA.3.
I think that the Lions and the Suns need to be a lot more autarky than they are now before there is another Brisbane club.

 

[qlderlions]

But Dillon has still never brought up SEQ has he? He's mentioned there have been talk about WA, Cairns, NQ and Canberra, but hasn't brought up a second Brisbane side. All I've heard him say on that subject is after (after being asked) "never say never".

So when speedpeck says the AFL have alluded to a second Brisbane team, I'm yet to see a time that they have.

Footy is going great in SEQ, and I can see a third team there in the future. But the entire narrative that has come out of Brisbane as Team 20 seems to have spawned from an offhanded three-worded deflection.

First of all, let me say that I support Canberra having an AFL team and being either the next team or the second next team in the AFL. If the AFL was unconstrained by politics (big if!) the ideal mix would be North Melbourne as WA3, new team in Canberra, new 2nd team in Brisbane to take us to 20 Teams. Western bulldogs push out to dominate the West of Melbourne/Ballarat/Bendigo and St Kilda push out to dominate the SE of Melbourne to secure those clubs into the long term. What base the Melbourne demons hold into the long term is an open debate (I suspect that as the years go on the MCC affiliation will move over time to be dominated by the Big 4 Melbourne clubs and the proportion of Melbourne supporters will therefore decline).

Zooming into the SEQ debate above, I think the push for a Second Brisbane is coming from a number of fronts:
- No Stadium Debate required for the new team (don't underestimate the executive focus that has consumed AFL house over the Tasmania debate (and Victoria Park Stadium before that)). Manuka will start this conversation all over again....with both the ACT government and the Feds.

- Participation in Queensland has boomed, Queensland overtook WA to become the 2nd biggest AFL participation state this year. Participation growth is now being limited by facilities here (Oval Space, Change Rooms) and kids are being turned away by some clubs due to these limitations. The growth here is extremely rapid and AFL research indicates if you play the game you are 7 times more likely to go to be a member or go to a game. Also note that this growth is largely focused in Brisbane, Sunshine Coast, Redlands and Gold Coast LGAs, there is a lot of potential in the 2.5M Queenslanders that live outside these LGAs.

- The population growth of Queensland is extremely rapid in comparison to Canberra, if you look at the table and graph below, within 10 years there will be 4 cities in SEQ outside of Brisbane/Gold Coast (SC, Logan, Ipswich, Moreton Bay) each the same size as Canberra or larger and growing at faster (%) rates. Looking at the AFL landscape in South East QLD, Lions supporters are concentrated in Brisbane LGA. Moreton Bay Regional Council is underserved and the same size as Canberra and growing more rapidly. Logan/Ipswich are more Rugby League focused than the more diverse Moreton Bay region with some areas of good AFL penetration and some areas like Caboolture that are Rugby League focused. Sunshine Coast has a large AFL following (and participation) on par with Rugby League.

- Brisbane Lions have sold out of 2026 reserve seat memberships, I suspect there will be a waitlist established this year, 5 years before they move to the new stadium. I think the fear of empty seats at the new stadium are unfounded as the Lions sell out finals at 36k each year extremely rapidly. There is a huge ex-Victorian population here that can't get to general games or big 5 games because from now on seats will be limited.

- Gold Coast Suns are not a 2nd Brisbane team like people outside of QLD like to believe, it is like calling Geelong a Melbourne club (similar distance). As such the penetration of the Suns supporters in the Brisbane suburbs is limited (leaving un-tapped potential). It is not the same situation here as Port/Crows and Freo/WC.

Obviously, the first dot point and third dot point also apply to WA3 (perth based team not SW WA).

 

[Professor Knowall]

First of all, let me say that I support Canberra having an AFL team and being either the next team or the second next team in the AFL. If the AFL was unconstrained by politics (big if!) the ideal mix would be North Melbourne as WA3, new team in Canberra, new 2nd team in Brisbane to take us to 20 Teams. Western bulldogs push out to dominate the West of Melbourne/Ballarat/Bendigo and St Kilda push out to dominate the SE of Melbourne to secure those clubs into the long term. What base the Melbourne demons hold into the long term is an open debate (I suspect that as the years go on the MCC affiliation will move over time to be dominated by the Big 4 Melbourne clubs and the proportion of Melbourne supporters will therefore decline).

Zooming into the SEQ debate above, I think the push for a Second Brisbane is coming from a number of fronts:
- No Stadium Debate required for the new team (don't underestimate the executive focus that has consumed AFL house over the Tasmania debate (and Victoria Park Stadium before that)). Manuka will start this conversation all over again....with both the ACT government and the Feds.

- Participation in Queensland has boomed, Queensland overtook WA to become the 2nd biggest AFL participation state this year. Participation growth is now being limited by facilities here (Oval Space, Change Rooms) and kids are being turned away by some clubs due to these limitations. The growth here is extremely rapid and AFL research indicates if you play the game you are 7 times more likely to go to be a member or go to a game. Also note that this growth is largely focused in Brisbane, Sunshine Coast, Redlands and Gold Coast LGAs, there is a lot of potential in the 2.5M Queenslanders that live outside these LGAs.

- The population growth of Queensland is extremely rapid in comparison to Canberra, if you look at the table and graph below, within 10 years there will be 4 cities in SEQ outside of Brisbane/Gold Coast (SC, Logan, Ipswich, Moreton Bay) each the same size as Canberra or larger and growing at faster (%) rates. Looking at the AFL landscape in South East QLD, Lions supporters are concentrated in Brisbane LGA. Moreton Bay Regional Council is underserved and the same size as Canberra and growing more rapidly. Logan/Ipswich are more Rugby League focused than the more diverse Moreton Bay region with some areas of good AFL penetration and some areas like Caboolture that are Rugby League focused. Sunshine Coast has a large AFL following (and participation) on par with Rugby League.

- Brisbane Lions have sold out of 2026 reserve seat memberships, I suspect there will be a waitlist established this year, 5 years before they move to the new stadium. I think the fear of empty seats at the new stadium are unfounded as the Lions sell out finals at 36k each year extremely rapidly. There is a huge ex-Victorian population here that can't get to general games or big 5 games because from now on seats will be limited.

- Gold Coast Suns are not a 2nd Brisbane team like people outside of QLD like to believe, it is like calling Geelong a Melbourne club (similar distance). As such the penetration of the Suns supporters in the Brisbane suburbs is limited (leaving un-tapped potential). It is not the same situation here as Port/Crows and Freo/WC.

Obviously, the first dot point and third dot point also apply to WA3 (perth based team not SW WA).

Well done - that's a quality, well set out post. I would also add that the Qld participation surge hasn't just produced much greater numbers of Qld players drafted into the AFL over the last few seasons, but also a bunch of highly talented high draft picks.

For the first time, I'm now thinking of a second Brisbane team as a viable alternative to Canberra for the 20th club. I'm more doubtful of WA 3, but not ruling it out. It'll be interesting to see how things develop over the next few years before any decision is made.