Player Watch #21: Noah Balta

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They all look good but holding onto them all may not be easy as we are already struggling with our salary cap and decent offers will come for these sort of players, especially the way they are playing. This might be the great value of the likes of the likes of Broad, Mcintosh, Butler, Castagna, they can play a role and do it well while presumably on minimal cash.

We will probably have to shift the likes of Houli, Grigg, Ellis, sooner rather than later in order to hold on to most of these good youngsters. But at some point I fear we will need to lose someone we would rather keep, unless we can get the Pies' accountant to share his secrets with us.
 
They all look good but holding onto them all may not be easy as we are already struggling with our salary cap and decent offers will come for these sort of players, especially the way they are playing. This might be the great value of the likes of the likes of Broad, Mcintosh, Butler, Castagna, they can play a role and do it well while presumably on minimal cash.

We will probably have to shift the likes of Houli, Grigg, Ellis, sooner rather than later in order to hold on to most of these good youngsters. But at some point I fear we will need to lose someone we would rather keep, unless we can get the Pies' accountant to share his secrets with us.

What percent of the cap are we at right now?
 
I thought you had to stay between 90-100?
Not sure tho
Yep. And MR seems to know exactly where we are. I was curious to know 'exactly where we are' on the cap.
Obviously Dusty and Lynch are big contracts, but with backending and frontloading etc, and these kids are only 19-20 y.o., it's not like they will get 400-500,000 per year contracts. I am questioning our difficulty with the cap signing them all up.

We should be able sign them all up to 2-3 years with the players we have leaving in the next 3 years.
 
As long as they play the will stay.
This early on its game time they want. Their big contracts will come after they are 21 to 23 years old. The beauty is if they wanted to leave we could and would demand 1st rd picks for any of them.
 

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There is only around $600K difference between the minimum TPP and maximum TPP......... Not much wriggle room at all........

Interesting. Would indicate having a good numbers person is just as important as the trades themselves in some ways. Makes the long contracts important by being able to juggle the numbers too.
 
Yep. And MR seems to know exactly where we are. I was curious to know 'exactly where we are' on the cap.
Obviously Dusty and Lynch are big contracts, but with backending and frontloading etc, and these kids are only 19-20 y.o., it's not like they will get 400-500,000 per year contracts. I am questioning our difficulty with the cap signing them all up.

We should be able sign them all up to 2-3 years with the players we have leaving in the next 3 years.

To be clear I have no idea of the finite detail of where we are with the cap. I seem to recall it has been reported Lynch has been back ended, and if that is correct, then surely the only reason for this can be our cap is under pressure in the next few years. And we had Conca picked off last year to a better offer. If these kids are on minimal contracts now and they all continue to fire this season, it is not far fetched to think they are going to field offers of $350-400k from clubs looking for talent. I mean Boyd got a long term $1m a year offer or similar when he was at the same stage as Balta will be the end of this year, so it couldn't be out of the question for a club to reason Balta is someone they could build a future around and give him a long term deal on big cash. That is my understanding of how the system works, you recruit and develop really well, clubs will come knocking. We do it, everyone does it. So for me it stands to reason that with the excellent development of this group of exciting youngsters, we will end up priced out of some of our players, whether it be these guys or others. If you think some of this reasoning is incorrect then happy to be illuminated.
 
When i mention losing some players to free agency or trade i usually get people having a go at me due to their loyalty to said players but we will start shedding some players and we have 2 players that will be targeted this year as free agents.

Brandon Ellis - Most likely will get offers around the $500k-$650k range depending on which club needs him and how desperate they are
Suns , Crows , Blues , Saints , Doggies will all be looking. We should not match and accept a decent compo pick around #20-#30 imo

David Astbury - Again a free agent and will get good offers around the $600-$700k range for 3/4 years
being a premiership KPD player thats shown he can play on the big gorillas he will be sought after and again he is 29 and we have a decent replacement in Garth. David Astbury is a player we should cash in and take the pick similar to Ellis

Houli / Grigg - These 2 guys will also be gone by the end of 2020 and Grigg may get the tap on the shoulder this year, Again we now have their replacement ready or will be ready by the start of 2020

Butler / Castagna / Baker / Menadue /Markov are all also now no longer untouchable and could be let go if a good offer is made
 
When i mention losing some players to free agency or trade i usually get people having a go at me due to their loyalty to said players but we will start shedding some players and we have 2 players that will be targeted this year as free agents.

Brandon Ellis - Most likely will get offers around the $500k-$650k range depending on which club needs him and how desperate they are
Suns , Crows , Blues , Saints , Doggies will all be looking. We should not match and accept a decent compo pick around #20-#30 imo

David Astbury - Again a free agent and will get good offers around the $600-$700k range for 3/4 years
being a premiership KPD player thats shown he can play on the big gorillas he will be sought after and again he is 29 and we have a decent replacement in Garth. David Astbury is a player we should cash in and take the pick similar to Ellis

Houli / Grigg - These 2 guys will also be gone by the end of 2020 and Grigg may get the tap on the shoulder this year, Again we now have their replacement ready or will be ready by the start of 2020

Butler / Castagna / Baker / Menadue /Markov are all also now no longer untouchable and could be let go if a good offer is made

I am not sure Brandon Alice will get offers at or above $500k, that seems too high to me but $400k and I presume likely second round compensation might not be out of the question. I would guess we let him go for anything above about $300-350k.

Also not sure Astbury attracts $600-700k offers, but I wouldn't think we'd be matching if he did. He seems closer to $500k to me and again this might get a second round pick in compensation. I don't think we have sufficient ready made key defenders to be letting him go though and unless he gets a silly offer he can't refuse he should stay on a healthy contract.

I am not sure clubs will be after the likes of Butler, Castagna, Menadue, Markov unless they can get them on bargain money, but if any of these sort of guys get good offers I would think it will be very difficult for us to match.
 
When i mention losing some players to free agency or trade i usually get people having a go at me due to their loyalty to said players but we will start shedding some players and we have 2 players that will be targeted this year as free agents.

Brandon Ellis - Most likely will get offers around the $500k-$650k range depending on which club needs him and how desperate they are
Suns , Crows , Blues , Saints , Doggies will all be looking. We should not match and accept a decent compo pick around #20-#30 imo

David Astbury - Again a free agent and will get good offers around the $600-$700k range for 3/4 years
being a premiership KPD player thats shown he can play on the big gorillas he will be sought after and again he is 29 and we have a decent replacement in Garth. David Astbury is a player we should cash in and take the pick similar to Ellis

Houli / Grigg - These 2 guys will also be gone by the end of 2020 and Grigg may get the tap on the shoulder this year, Again we now have their replacement ready or will be ready by the start of 2020

Butler / Castagna / Baker / Menadue /Markov are all also now no longer untouchable and could be let go if a good offer is made

Know where you are coming from - there is no magic ever expanding pudding.

Not sure Brandon figures will be that high. He was quietly shopped a bit last season iirc. Now it will be more on his terms. I guess if Polec can get it done so can Brandon.

Astbury is an interesting one. He's 29 but has been reasonably durable in recent years (excluding gastro). That would be a big paycheck for someone to put out there and I agree with you we should smile and say nothing and take the compo pick.

Butler presents a great opportunity to get a decent pick as a trade. We may have to sacrifice some games to him through the season but it could be worth it if he can get a few more of those cheap goals on his CV.

The wildcard for me is Rance having nearly 12 months out of the game. Will he expand his religious commitment at all and what impact might that have on him being satisfied with what he has got from the game? I'd be surprised if he didn't accept a bit of a haircut on his salary given recent additions, so if he stepped away it would still be a significant chunk available.

I'm confident Balmey and Co will do whatever it takes to have Balta sign a new contract as soon as practical. Players of his potential don't fall from the trees too often in an 18 team comp.
 
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To be clear I have no idea of the finite detail of where we are with the cap. I seem to recall it has been reported Lynch has been back ended, and if that is correct, then surely the only reason for this can be our cap is under pressure in the next few years. And we had Conca picked off last year to a better offer. If these kids are on minimal contracts now and they all continue to fire this season, it is not far fetched to think they are going to field offers of $350-400k from clubs looking for talent. I mean Boyd got a long term $1m a year offer or similar when he was at the same stage as Balta will be the end of this year, so it couldn't be out of the question for a club to reason Balta is someone they could build a future around and give him a long term deal on big cash. That is my understanding of how the system works, you recruit and develop really well, clubs will come knocking. We do it, everyone does it. So for me it stands to reason that with the excellent development of this group of exciting youngsters, we will end up priced out of some of our players, whether it be these guys or others. If you think some of this reasoning is incorrect then happy to be illuminated.

Balta being offered 1m is enough illuminating for me.
I'll back in our system to keep the ones we want.
 
Balta being offered 1m is enough illuminating for me.
I'll back in our system to keep the ones we want.

I don't understand your first sentence.

My point is you can keep the "ones you want" up to the point where you have enough salary cap space to do so. After that point the best you can do is keep the ones you want most.
 
I am not sure Brandon Alice will get offers at or above $500k, that seems too high to me but $400k and I presume likely second round compensation might not be out of the question. I would guess we let him go for anything above about $300-350k.

Also not sure Astbury attracts $600-700k offers, but I wouldn't think we'd be matching if he did. He seems closer to $500k to me and again this might get a second round pick in compensation. I don't think we have sufficient ready made key defenders to be letting him go though and unless he gets a silly offer he can't refuse he should stay on a healthy contract.

I am not sure clubs will be after the likes of Butler, Castagna, Menadue, Markov unless they can get them on bargain money, but if any of these sort of guys get good offers I would think it will be very difficult for us to match.
North are going to be light on for tall backs shortly and with Dave having two years for sure in front of him that might be a good fit for a team thats got some talent but need a little development.
A club like Melbourne might be interested in Ellis they can get to the ball first but don’t seem to have to many outrunners.
I think both of em could be worth 500thou.
There’s not many free agents this year and to get one you have to pay more than anybody else wants to.
I’d be surprised if Balta was offered 500thou
Boyd is a good example of basing deals on potential
 
Just thinking on this a bit more now, what happened with Tyson Stengle probably illustrates the point well.

He is a good little player who was developing very nicely in the VFL team. I have seen nothing to suggest that Richmond didn't want to keep him, nor that he was in any way unhappy at Tigerland. The Crows, after losing Cameron and seeing Eddie Betts coming near to the end of his career made Stengle some sort of decent offer, I presume around $250k a season for a couple of years, and he would also see the possibility of greater opportunities to play senior footy at the Crows, which allows him to put a better case for a bigger contract in the future.

So the Tigers trade him for pick 68 and seem to have effectively replaced him on the rookie list with Jake Aarts, on a minimum wage, saving maybe $100k cap space compared to matching the Crows offer. It seems to me Richmond would have wanted Stengle on the list rather than Aarts, but because we had effectively chosen Bolton over Stengle by signing Bolton to a one year contract, we lost Stengle. From all reports Stengle is playing really well in the Crows SANFL team, and there is every chance he will go on to have a decent AFL career. We traded pick 68 for the Cats' 2019 fourth rounder so we will likely get a similar pick in the 2019 draft.

A similar scenario could easily play out with CCJ, Balta, Miller, Balta, Naish, Bolton at the end of this year(unsure if any have re-signed or extended?).

But let's say the Suns are awash with cap space and decide Balta is the perfect complement to Witts in the ruck, and with time on their side and a developing list, decide to offer Balta $650k per year for four years. Balta goes to the Tigers and says I want $500k x four years to stay. The Tigers agree.

Say then Crows sensing Jacobs is nearly gonzo offer $400k x 3 years for CCJ. We just won't be able to keep them all. At some point we will need to lose players we would rather keep. But way better this than young players stagnating.
 
North are going to be light on for tall backs shortly and with Dave having two years for sure in front of him that might be a good fit for a team thats got some talent but need a little development.
A club like Melbourne might be interested in Ellis they can get to the ball first but don’t seem to have to many outrunners.
I think both of em could be worth 500thou.
There’s not many free agents this year and to get one you have to pay more than anybody else wants to.
I’d be surprised if Balta was offered 500thou
Boyd is a good example of basing deals on potential

Potential has a price though. Maybe not one million a season, but not completely out of the question to think a club in rebuild makes a $500k+ play for a player like Balta, reasoning he is worth the punt given enormous potential upside. I could see Swans, GCS, Crows off the top of my head thinking a player like Balta could fit their needs and timings really well.
 

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