24 Years of AFL Revenue, Distributions, TPP, Broadcast $, Members, Crowds, Participation and TV est

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NoobPie

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#2
Awesome wookie!

I suspect your revenue estimate is unders on account of the tv rights increase. Adjusting for contra, and taking the $80m Etihad figure as a given, I am reckoning a consolidated revenue around $800m

Other questions...do the attendances include preseason? Based on afl tables the agg attendance last year was 7.29m for the premiership season compared to 7.14m in 2011. Surely there were not 700k to non premiership games in 2011?
 

The_Wookie

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Thread starter Moderator #3
Awesome wookie!

I suspect your revenue estimate is unders on account of the tv rights increase. Adjusting for contra, and taking the $80m Etihad figure as a given, I am reckoning a consolidated revenue around $800m

Other questions...do the attendances include preseason? Based on afl tables the agg attendance last year was 7.29m for the premiership season compared to 7.14m in 2011. Surely there were not 700k to non premiership games in 2011?
attendances include preseason and finals, as listed in the annual reports.

Revenue at Etihad Stadium was $79m in 2016 which ive included in my estimate.
 

NoobPie

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#4
attendances include preseason and finals, as listed in the annual reports.

Revenue at Etihad Stadium was $79m in 2016 which ive included in my estimate.
Cool, I'll look at the annual report 2011....got your Etihad rev est, think you need to add in an estimate for the tv rights increase into the revenue though....
 

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telsor

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#13
Tiny quibble (yeah I know, I'm OCD, feel free to ignore me on this)

2017 Revenue estimate = 2016 revenue + Docklands + extra media rights + rounding up.

569+80+168 = 817

Add your rounding up and it'd be at least 820.
 

The_Wookie

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Thread starter Moderator #14
Tiny quibble (yeah I know, I'm OCD, feel free to ignore me on this)

2017 Revenue estimate = 2016 revenue + Docklands + extra media rights + rounding up.

569+80+168 = 817

Add your rounding up and it'd be at least 820.
theres also additional revenues from womens footy and stuff that i havent included. They wont have full year revenues for Etihad though - they didnt take it over until november, so its likely to be in the area of 750 mill for 2017.
 

NoobPie

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#15
theres also additional revenues from womens footy and stuff that i havent included. They wont have full year revenues for Etihad though - they didnt take it over until november, so its likely to be in the area of 750 mill for 2017.
What is the AFL's financial year ? Is it Nov to Oct?

Other factor is that it is far from certain that the revenue will increase by the increase in the TV rights value...in the four years captured in the table, only one of them (06 to 07) saw the increase in revenues exceed the increase in TV rights....

upload_2018-1-8_13-29-3.png


Given that in every year except one (96 to 97) the AFL has experienced growth in revenue, I think it is unlikely that this is explainable by an off setting loss of revenue in other revenue sources.

More likely it is one or a combination of:
-an increase in the absolute value of contra in the new deal
-the receipt of the TV rights monies not necessarily broken evenly across the years of the deal, and perhaps even part of it received in advance on the first year
 

1873 United

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#16
Adjustments made



Stupid img caching Chief.
In the year 2000, weekly viewing is exponentially higher than every other year. Is the reasoning behind this more to do with the way ratings where recorded?

This was the year of the Olympic games (early season, may have had an effect), perhaps, if ratings from this period are dubious, does it not bring to question the ratings data for any time prior to this period?

Anyways, fantastic work Wookie, and I have to ask the question, are you employed within the industry? or are you just a statistics nut?
 

Rabman

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#19
Wookie what do you make of the AFL TV ratings from last season, would the networks be satisfied at the moment, particularly Friday night ratings or do they need to improve.
 

NoobPie

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#21
Wookie what do you make of the AFL TV ratings from last season, would the networks be satisfied at the moment, particularly Friday night ratings or do they need to improve.
I reckon they will end up at least on par with 15/16....the wookie could correct me but I would think the afl would have provided to them all ratings whether public or otherwise
 

Our Game

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#22
I reckon they will end up at least on par with 15/16....the wookie could correct me but I would think the afl would have provided to them all ratings whether public or otherwise
Considering most other sports on FTA TV are way down the AFL is going OK
The future will be another story when the new media platforms start to take over from the old in the next few years.
 

Rabman

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#23
I reckon they will end up at least on par with 15/16....the wookie could correct me but I would think the afl would have provided to them all ratings whether public or otherwise
The one concern i have is Melbourne FTA audiences on Friday nights. they seemed to have gradually decreased over the last 5 years. there were games back in 2012/2013 that rated well over 400k even over 500k, now looking at last season there were only 3 games that rated 400k or more in Melbourne.
 

telsor

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#25
Considering most other sports on FTA TV are way down the AFL is going OK
The future will be another story when the new media platforms start to take over from the old in the next few years.
Relative doesn't really cut it. If the AFL is to get a good deal next time around, then it's the absolute numbers that matter.

Viewers --> Advertisers --> Networks --> AFL

It's not a straight line formula, but there is a very strong correlation between how the money flow goes between these, so if viewers are dropping (or more correctly, the money advertisers get from viewers) then the AFL will get less money regardless of what is happening in other sports.
 
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