Analysis Cuts to Senior List Sizes

[Baygirl1977]

Afl has just released pay cuts ,


AFL player agents were briefed early on Wednesday afternoon regarding the changes.

Sources with knowledge of negotiations believe this deal is a win for players, who at one stage were facing a 15 to 20 per cent cut in salaries.

As first reported by foxfooty.com.au last Thursday, clubs will only be required to select a minimum of one player in December’s national draft, down from three.

Change in List Size numbers

2020 Total List Sizes: 38-47 | 2021 Total List Sizes: 37-44

2020 Primary List: 38-40 | 2021 Primary List: 36-38

2020 Cat A Rookies: 0-6 | 2021 Cat A Rookies: 0-6

2020 Cat B Rookies: 0-3 | 2021 Cat B Rookies: 0-2

 

[briztoon]

It sounds brutal in theory, but in practice it should be reasonably "easy" for most teams to cut their lists back by ~10 players. It just means a lot of the project players are gone.

For the Dogs:

RETIREMENT
Tory Dickson
Matt Suckling

FIRST ONES OUT THE DOOR
Lin Jong
Brad Lynch
Roarke Smith

TRADE BAIT/FREE TO GOOD HOME
Billy Gowers
Fergus Greene
Ryan Gardner
Cal Porter
Jackson Trengove

That's 10 already. Could also look at guys like Ben Cavarra and Buku Khamis, but I think it's more likely the club gives those two a bit of extra time.

I'd consider the Dogs to have some of the best depth in the competition, and I still find it relatively simple to cut the list back. Any club could do the same if their hand was forced. I'd say the club that would have the toughest time would be West Coast, where they'd end up having to cut decent-ish players like Mark Hutchings

The only caveat I would mention is that all delistings have to come from out of contract players, and possibly contracted rookies.

And teams need to get their list down to 33 players to then include a minimum of two draft picks.

The AFL is trying to save money, so it’s not going to pay out contracted players.

 

[briztoon]

Lions have 47 players on their senior and rookie lists.

We would need to delist all our out of contracted players, plus cut our 2021 signed rookies to get down to 33 players.

Out of Contract 2020:
Cedric Cox
Jacob Allison (R)
Toby Wooller
Stefan Martin
Grant Birchall
Mitchell Hinge (R)
Ryan Lester
Allen Christensen
Sam Skinner (R)
Corey Lyons (R)
Matt Eagles (R)

Contracted Rookies in 2021:
Tom Fullarton (R)
Archie Smith (R)
James Madden (R)

From a Lions perspective I would really want to keep Stef Martin and Tom Fullarton at a minimum.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Any GWS watchers feel that there's a chance that Xavier O'Halloran ends up dropped in a list cut?

 

[Virgin Dog]

The only caveat I would mention is that all delistings have to come from out of contract players, and possibly contracted rookies.

And teams need to get their list down to 33 players to then include a minimum of two draft picks.

The AFL is trying to save money, so it’s not going to pay out contracted players.

Yeah completely agree - the players I listed are all out of contract. I think in a realistic scenario, it's more likely we'd see some players traded out too (as we see every year) so wouldn't end up that simple, but it's definitely doable.

Having something like 33 senior listed players sitting under their salary cap, then allowing for 10-15 rookies at different levels would be the go - Level 1 rookie gets the current AFL rookie minimum, while Level 2 rookie gets a much lower wage (~40k or thereabouts) with the understanding that they're a state league player who may get opportunity for a call up. This means clubs end up with access to even more players than before, removing the need for a mid season draft, while also bringing down salary cap expenditure.

 

[Virgin Dog]

Lions have 47 players on their senior and rookie lists.

We would need to delist all our out of contracted players, plus cut our 2021 signed rookies to get down to 33 players.

Out of Contract 2020:
Cedric Cox
Jacob Allison (R)
Toby Wooller
Stefan Martin
Grant Birchall
Mitchell Hinge (R)
Ryan Lester
Allen Christensen
Sam Skinner (R)
Corey Lyons (R)
Matt Eagles (R)

Contracted Rookies in 2021:
Tom Fullarton (R)
Archie Smith (R)
James Madden (R)

From a Lions perspective I would really want to keep Stef Martin and Tom Fullarton at a minimum.

You more than likely wouldn't need to cut everyone. Stef Martin and Tom Fullarton could stay in a real world scenario as there's a good chance you'd see players requesting trades elsewhere or retiring early, as we see every year.

I also see it being quite likely that the AFL give the clubs a 1 year transition period to help bring list sizes down to try relieve the pressure of having to get rid of so much of the list so quickly.

 

[briztoon]

You more than likely wouldn't need to cut everyone. Stef Martin and Tom Fullarton could stay in a real world scenario as there's a good chance you'd see players requesting trades elsewhere or retiring early, as we see every year.

I also see it being quite likely that the AFL give the clubs a 1 year transition period to help bring list sizes down to try relieve the pressure of having to get rid of so much of the list so quickly.

We really don’t have any contracted retirement candidates.

The most obvious players are Steph Martin and Grant Birchall.

I’m not sure if we’ll have any players request a trade. Maybe Rhys Mathieson, as he’s slipped back in the midfield pecking order.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

You more than likely wouldn't need to cut everyone. Stef Martin and Tom Fullarton could stay in a real world scenario as there's a good chance you'd see players requesting trades elsewhere or retiring early, as we see every year.

I also see it being quite likely that the AFL give the clubs a 1 year transition period to help bring list sizes down to try relieve the pressure of having to get rid of so much of the list so quickly.

By the end of the transition period they'd be playing again and the liquidity crisis would be over. This needs to be stopping outflows of cash now

 

[Chaisa]

Ronke on notice? I always liked him. Also had my eye on young Ling as a junior, he hasn't developed?

Ronke had two great games in 2018 and was overall fine that year but was awful last year. He might get another chance if no footy is played in 2020 but if there is he might find himself off the merryground if things go wrong, especially given Sydney have quite a few other options in his role.

Ling's problem is that he hasn't able to stay fit so hasn't really looked like making his debut thus far. It's possible that we choose to cut our losses with him, though I suspect he gets one more chance especially if we can't get back this season.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Ronke had two great games in 2018 and was overall fine that year but was awful last year. He might get another chance if no footy is played in 2020 but if there is he might find himself off the merryground if things go wrong, especially given Sydney have quite a few other options in his role.

Ling's problem is that he hasn't able to stay fit so hasn't really looked like making his debut thus far. It's possible that we choose to cut our losses with him, though I suspect he gets one more chance especially if we can't get back this season.

Shame about ling. Maybe a classic brings out his best against the cats number with ronke

 

[Giant Strides]

Any GWS watchers feel that there's a chance that Xavier O'Halloran ends up dropped in a list cut?

Only if it's a deep cut required (30 player list) and required to come from out of contract players and we can't work out how to move others off the list first. Otherwise, there would be enough others in front of him.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Only if it's a deep cut required (30 player list) and required to come from out of contract players and we can't work out how to move others off the list first. Otherwise, there would be enough others in front of him.

I'll take that as a no, cheers

 

[The Nostradamus]

Would be an interesting exercising ranking every teams player list from 1-45 and see who has the best 30-45 range players factoring in age also so that blokes about to retire might slide to that range

 

[Virgin Dog]

By the end of the transition period they'd be playing again and the liquidity crisis would be over. This needs to be stopping outflows of cash now

I think we'll be feeling knock on effects for at least a decade. This year will have royally ****ed the finances of most clubs to be honest. My suggestion was made with the intent of allowing the AFL to find the extra cash to pay off that $600 million loan, which will inevitably take decades to fully pay off. If savings can be had more quickly, then great, but I also feel clubs will be looking to make savings on expenses with a long term approach in mind, rather than list sizes only being cut for a season or two.

This year is going to change the shape of the AFL more than any we've seen since the national competition was established

 

[Virgin Dog]

Would be an interesting exercising ranking every teams player list from 1-45 and see who has the best 30-45 range players factoring in age also so that blokes about to retire might slide to that range

Would be cool to see every club board rank their own lists like that, then have it collated. But good luck to anyone wanting to organise that

 

[robbo1981]

Hopefully list size stays the same just cut the salary cap no more million dollar players.

 

[briztoon]

Hopefully list size stays the same just cut the salary cap no more million dollar players.

Yeah, said the same already.

 

[robbo1981]

Yeah, said the same already.

So you agree

 

[briztoon]

So you agree

Yeah, of course.

But there’s more to the AFL’s need to save money, than cutting the salary cap will solve.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Hopefully list size stays the same just cut the salary cap no more million dollar players.

That'd be ideal but currently contracted players would need to be paid out.

More likely that guys on longer contracts have payments deferred to later years

 

[Todman]

Get the state government to issue more pokie machine licenses.

 

[Mego Red]

Would be cool to see every club board rank their own lists like that, then have it collated. But good luck to anyone wanting to organise that

A few boards might already have this up. The Adelaide board does.

 

[Mego Red]

I think it goes to 37 and 3 for 2021.

Then 35 and 2 and finally 35, without a rookie list. I think they keep rookie list for a couple of years, as a way to help sides with contracted players scale back their list.

They could also give sides an amnesty to pay these out without any salary cap repercussions - but I don't think the club's could afford that anyway.

 

[eastfreo75]

I think it goes to 37 and 3 for 2021.

Then 35 and 2 and finally 35, without a rookie list. I think they keep rookie list for a couple of years, as a way to help sides with contracted players scale back their list.

They could also give sides an amnesty to pay these out without any salary cap repercussions - but I don't think the club's could afford that anyway.

Great point.

I am thinking the same.

Getting to 35 next year will be impossible without breaking contracts for some team including my team.

I think maybe 38 next year is more realistic and then 35 the following.

 

[coniglio_number1]

I hope cat B lists would be retained in any list reduction event as it sits outside the normal list rules and provides pathways for unique talent

 

[footyfan1978]

Hopefully list size stays the same just cut the salary cap no more million dollar players.

I'd prefer this option for sure.