Strategy 3rd or 4th? What would you prefer?

[Magpie Monopoly]

Let me preface these comments by saying I understand that nothing is set in stone, there are 5 rounds left and anything could happen from now till September. I will outline what brought on the question further on.

So after running a few simulations (using https://predictor.squiggle.com.au/), i noticed an interesting trend developing in how the remainder of the season was getting simulated, so i decided to run a set of 50 and see the results. Richmond finished 1st all but once, West Coast finished 2nd all but once, and the Pies finished 3rd 38 times, and 4th remaining 12. Never higher, never lower, and this was the case if we won 14, 15 or 16 games. Feel free to run the simulations yourself, you'll find overwhelmingly you'll get the same results.

So, given this information (and yes i know, as previously stated this doesn't mean a whole lot) what would you prefer, Richmond in the first QF at the MCG, or West Coast in WA?

Both have pro's and con's in my opinion. Richmond arguably a better side, at a ground they haven't lost at in (potentially) a record number of games, but the majority of us Melbourne folks will be able to attend, or West Coast in WA, a weaker side but the majority probably wouldn't be able to attend?

What would you prefer as a Pies fan?

 

[TradeDraft]

4th because we play in Melbourne instead of Traveling to West or Sydney or Adelaide.

Though we better win that as IF we don't we have to Travel for the PF

 

[unplugged]

Let me preface these comments by saying I understand that nothing is set in stone, there are 5 rounds left and anything could happen from now till September. I will outline what brought on the question further on.

So after running a few simulations (using https://predictor.squiggle.com.au/), i noticed an interesting trend developing in how the remainder of the season was getting simulated, so i decided to run a set of 50 and see the results. Richmond finished 1st all but once, West Coast finished 2nd all but once, and the Pies finished 3rd 38 times, and 4th remaining 12. Never higher, never lower, and this was the case if we won 14, 15 or 16 games. Feel free to run the simulations yourself, you'll find overwhelmingly you'll get the same results.

So, given this information (and yes i know, as previously stated this doesn't mean a whole lot) what would you prefer, Richmond in the first QF at the MCG, or West Coast in WA?

Both have pro's and con's in my opinion. Richmond arguably a better side, at a ground they haven't lost at in (potentially) a record number of games, but the majority of us Melbourne folks will be able to attend, or West Coast in WA, a weaker side but the majority probably wouldn't be able to attend?

What would you prefer as a Pies fan?

I'll let you know at 4:30pm on Saturday!

 

[Chrispiesssss]

I think we can still finish second, but if we can’t, I prefer Tigers At the G. Especially after we beat them this week

 

[Mukesh]

Let me preface these comments by saying I understand that nothing is set in stone, there are 5 rounds left and anything could happen from now till September. I will outline what brought on the question further on.

So after running a few simulations (using https://predictor.squiggle.com.au/), i noticed an interesting trend developing in how the remainder of the season was getting simulated, so i decided to run a set of 50 and see the results. Richmond finished 1st all but once, West Coast finished 2nd all but once, and the Pies finished 3rd 38 times, and 4th remaining 12. Never higher, never lower, and this was the case if we won 14, 15 or 16 games. Feel free to run the simulations yourself, you'll find overwhelmingly you'll get the same results.

So, given this information (and yes i know, as previously stated this doesn't mean a whole lot) what would you prefer, Richmond in the first QF at the MCG, or West Coast in WA?

Both have pro's and con's in my opinion. Richmond arguably a better side, at a ground they haven't lost at in (potentially) a record number of games, but the majority of us Melbourne folks will be able to attend, or West Coast in WA, a weaker side but the majority probably wouldn't be able to attend?

What would you prefer as a Pies fan?

I'd be more concerned/worried about playing WC in Perth than Richmond at the G...

 

[Robroy22]

Fear no-one, enjoy the challenges as they come.

 

[Magpie Monopoly]

I think we can still finish second, but if we can’t, I prefer Tigers At the G. Especially after we beat them this week

Just as i posted this thread i got a simulation finishing 2nd on % (ofcourse i did)

 

[Chrispiesssss]

Just as i posted this thread i got a simulation finishing 2nd on % (ofcourse i did)

We would have to win every game.
We have to hope WCE lose to North in Tasmania, Port in Adelaide or Melbourne in Perth.

They have 3 tough games.

 

[Magpie Monopoly]

We would have to win every game.
We have to hope WCE lose to North in Tasmania, Port in Adelaide or Melbourne in Perth.

They have 3 tough games.

I got us there on 16 wins and West Coast on 16, us getting to 16 seems very plausible, however West Coast only winning 16 games seems unlikely

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Finish as high as possible, means we’re more likely to take confidence into the finals.

 

[Baird]

4th, it might be the only chance we get to see a Collingwood vs Richmond final in a long time. I also reckon we're more likely to beat Richmond than West Coast in Perth. We'll finish third though

 

[jmac70]

Definitely 4th. Going to the QF at the G against Richmond would be amazing.

 

[TradeDraft]

Definitely 4th. Going to the QF at the G against Richmond would be amazing.

What about a PF or a GF?

 

[jmac70]

What about a PF or a GF?

I’d prefer to play them earlier.

 

[spartan-magpie]

First or second.

 

[TradeDraft]

First or second.

We would have to win every single game left and have some big wins for more %

 

[OniAu]

Plus side either way. We get a taste of the new W.A stadium against freo. Not a bad pre warm up if we face the eagles in the first final.

I feel like if we can pinch 3rd or 4th, we are the team going into the finals from the top 4 with absolute zero pressure on us. Anything is a bonus.

Love to see the Richmond faces when the pressure mounts and they are down to a young pies team in the first final and are forced to travel at the very least in the prelim.

 

[left at home]

Should not matter, if we are good enough, we can win anywhere

 

[Matt_352]

Why not 1st or 2nd

 

[TradeDraft]

Why not 1st or 2nd

Doubt we win every Game and Tigers and Eagles Drop 2 Games

 

[Didstar]

Personally, wouldn't care where we finished if we made top 4. Would be a great achievement for the club either way.

 

[jmac70]

4th is the same as 1st this year.

 

[Quicky]

Personally, wouldn't care where we finished if we made top 4. Would be a great achievement for the club either way.

Absolutely!

 

[Yidaki]

4th imo. West coast over at optus would be a brutal task. And not to mention the travel too. 4th would mean we play the Tigers at the g which is our home ground.

 

[Gayfer_Pants]

Posts here are assuming Richmond finishes top. Not a given!