Expansion 3rd Western Australian club

coniglio_number1

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Given that the afl is all about business and money I doubt WA would be the next target for them. This state has been well and truly conquered and any additional money made will be a pittance as it has been stated before, wa football fans already have a team they support
 

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Johnny Bananas

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Given that the afl is all about business and money I doubt WA would be the next target for them. This state has been well and truly conquered and any additional money made will be a pittance as it has been stated before, wa football fans already have a team they support
This despite the Eagles selling out games with the highest membership prices in the country? Plenty of sponsorship dollars to be had too.
 

Tayl0r

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The number of Western Australians demanding trades home is big and increasing, and I think it'll only continue to increase as the population boom of the past 15 years results in more WA footballers being produced. Freo and West Coast have a big recruitment advantage in that sense since there are only two clubs to divvy up the returning talent. Look at Freo's trade period this past year, and soon Tim Kelly will be adding to the numbers for either them or West Coast. So another reason I want a third team from Perth is to provide more competition for returnees. This new team should do reasonably well with the talent they can attract back, and we all know that success breeds crowds and support.
Where do the fans for this third club come from?

West Coast existed and soak up all the fans, then the AFL got scared of the Eagles getting all the WA players coming home cheap so they made Fremantle...who might get 40,000 at a game. That's good figures for a Melbourne team but that doesn't mean a third team is going to even do that well. I think the break even amount of fans at Optus is more suited to WCE packing it out than Freo not filling it up so well.

The current setup has the WAFC owning and utilising the WCE (mostly) and FFC (much less) to fund the majority of the WAFL. A second WA team was not required here to continue to fund WA football.

There are no new fans and new money to be tapped here.
 

Tayl0r

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Yet the same can’t be said about Fremantle. One powerful club does not mean all the others will be just as big
If we follow the trend then we might see 10 to 20,000 showing up to games - the AFL then has to decide if it's going to pay money to supplement the cost of the Joondalup Falcons. I expect they will say: "You get $2,000,000 or so out of the Eagles each year that they don't get to spend to make their club stronger, take more of that WAFC, it's your problem."
 

Johnny Bananas

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If we follow the trend then we might see 10 to 20,000 showing up to games - the AFL then has to decide if it's going to pay money to supplement the cost of the Joondalup Falcons. I expect they will say: "You get $2,000,000 or so out of the Eagles each year that they don't get to spend to make their club stronger, take more of that WAFC, it's your problem."
I thought the WAFC didn't own the licences anymore.

Edit: Looks like I'm wrong, but there's no reason a third one has to be given to them too.
 
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Johnny Bananas

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Where do the fans for this third club come from?
Perth has 2 million people and two teams. Do the maths. It may take a generation for support to filter through, but if I'm the AFL I think long term. Giving the Eagles little competition means they will be overly powerful and wealthy in perpetuity.

West Coast existed and soak up all the fans, then the AFL got scared of the Eagles getting all the WA players coming home cheap so they made Fremantle...who might get 40,000 at a game. That's good figures for a Melbourne team but that doesn't mean a third team is going to even do that well.
Those are more than good figures, they're excellent for anywhere in the world in any sport league, besides only the NFL. I understand that WA can seem like a fishbowl when it's so isolated and there are only two major teams, but Freo fans really need to get some perspective and stop thinking 35-40k attendances are low or substandard. If a second team can get that, a third could draw enough to get off the ground, and in a generation get up to that level too. Barring some horrific natural disaster, Perth isn't about to start shedding people in the next 20 years.

I think the break even amount of fans at Optus is more suited to WCE packing it out than Freo not filling it up so well.
That's speculation. Seats just under 60 000 doesn't it? I don't know the specifics of break-even numbers, but 2/3 of capacity being full is pretty decent for most stadiums.

The current setup has the WAFC owning and utilising the WCE (mostly) and FFC (much less) to fund the majority of the WAFL. A second WA team was not required here to continue to fund WA football.
Who said this team has to be given to the WAFC at all?

There are no new fans and new money to be tapped here.
Perth now isn't 90s Perth, there are more people, there's more money, and one extremely rich team for which a 60 000 capacity is too small. How can you say there's nothing more to be tapped? Yes, it will take a generation to develop real support. This is the case for any expansion club at this point.
 

Tayl0r

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but Freo fans really need to get some perspective and stop thinking 35-40k attendances are low or substandard.
The only standard that matters is whether it's profitable. And when the figures are closer to 30,000 at the ground then it's not. A fairly large portion of the audience at the Freo home game derby next weekend will be wearing blue and gold.

The west coast Eagles are the powerhouse because they had the state for years and all the success.

Brisbane is in the same boat. Except not a football state.

Perth now isn't 90s Perth, there are more people, there's more money, and one extremely rich team for which a 60 000 capacity is too small. How can you say there's nothing more to be tapped? Yes, it will take a generation to develop real support. This is the case for any expansion club at this point.
I can say it because it's the fact. The casual football fan is casually an eagles or dockers fan. The ones older than about 12 in 1995 are ALL eagles fans, the ones who were hitting their teens by 1987 are fans of victorian clubs and they have their families on board too.

There isn't new money, AFL football couldn't be more saturated in this state. If someone was coming to the game, they are already here.
 

Tayl0r

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I thought the WAFC didn't own the licences anymore.

Edit: Looks like I'm wrong, but there's no reason a third one has to be given to them too.
West Coast Eagles paid a royalty of $3,906,471 last year. This is where the money paying to develop these WA players who are drafted over east comes from.
 

Johnny Bananas

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The only standard that matters is whether it's profitable. And when the figures are closer to 30,000 at the ground then it's not. A fairly large portion of the audience at the Freo home game derby next weekend will be wearing blue and gold.
You don't know where the break even margin lies. Neither do I. You're speculating.

On crowd figures, Freo have had only 2 games at OS this year below 40 000 and none below 36 000. And last year they had only 4 below 40 000, one of which was Gold Coast's home game. So they are getting 40 000 or more at most home games, and closer to 40 000 than 30 000 at almost all of them. They're even drawing more to games against Essendon, Richmond and Collingwood in Perth than the same fixtures in Melbourne. I can't imagine they're doing it tough even if the break even crowd is high.

I can say it because it's the fact. The casual football fan is casually an eagles or dockers fan. The ones older than about 12 in 1995 are ALL eagles fans, the ones who were hitting their teens by 1987 are fans of victorian clubs and they have their families on board too.
So you're saying... everyone backed an existing team, and then when a new one came in, they attracted new fans too? And they continued to do very well because the population and economy expanded from that point onwards? Because that's pretty much what I'm saying too, just with a bigger population and a different time period. Otherwise you could make the case that Fremantle should never have existed since everyone in WA who liked football already had a team.
 

Tayl0r

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You don't know where the break even margin lies. Neither do I. You're speculating.

On crowd figures, Freo have had only 2 games at OS this year below 40 000 and none below 36 000. And last year they had only 4 below 40 000, one of which was Gold Coast's home game. So they are getting 40 000 or more at most home games, and closer to 40 000 than 30 000 at almost all of them. They're even drawing more to games against Essendon, Richmond and Collingwood in Perth than the same fixtures in Melbourne. I can't imagine they're doing it tough even if the break even crowd is high.



So you're saying... everyone backed an existing team, and then when a new one came in, they attracted new fans too? And they continued to do very well because the population and economy expanded from that point onwards? Because that's pretty much what I'm saying too, just with a bigger population and a different time period. Otherwise you could make the case that Fremantle should never have existed since everyone in WA who liked football already had a team.
Fremantle only exists because eastern states clubs got worried that West Coast would have too many quality WA players being stolen from their rightful eastern states clubs and playing back home for unders. The WAFC didn't want to start a second team.

Fremantle has done well to not go broke, West Coast dominate the market here. West Coast will continue to dominate the market. If West Coast aren't performing for a few years in a row the Fremantle game day attendance will swell. There are people who sit on their WCE cushions in front of me at the games.

That Gold Coast home game Freo bought? Didn't make money off it. Ross Lyon was talking at the end of last season that there is a commercial reality with playing under the new optus stadium deal, the club has to get people into the ground so they have to be competitive.

West Coast is WA football. Their waiting list to get a seat is at 9,000. If those people wanted to support another team and go to the game each week... there are that many seats available at Freo games. But they don't.
 

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Johnny Bananas

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Fremantle only exists because eastern states clubs got worried that West Coast would have too many quality WA players being stolen from their rightful eastern states clubs and playing back home for unders. The WAFC didn't want to start a second team.
Good thing the WAFC isn't making decisions here. There are an awful lot of WA players going back home even now and I think competition for them should increase in future as the AFL thought in the 90s.

Fremantle has done well to not go broke
Fremantle made a $2 million profit last financial year and has total equity of $15 million. Again, there's a serious lack of perspective here where Freo fans seem to have some 'poor us', small-club mentality when you're very successful off-field. Not compared to West Coast, no, but the league is a lot bigger than just West Coast. Freo are successful by league-wide standards even if they're not a financial behemoth like their neighbours.

West Coast is WA football. Their waiting list to get a seat is at 9,000. If those people wanted to support another team and go to the game each week... there are that many seats available at Freo games. But they don't.
Freo is a big rival now. A third team wouldn't be, not for years at least. We should also note that Freo is centred around a particular geographic area and have firmly entrenched themselves in the south now. Do they have many fans from North of the river? I honestly don't know, but I suspect they don't, because I imagine the geography limits their appeal somewhat. A club based north of the river might be able to attract fans without cutting into Freo's support.
 

Tayl0r

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Good thing the WAFC isn't making decisions here. There are an awful lot of WA players going back home even now and I think competition for them should increase in future as the AFL thought in the 90s.
I would have thought you'd be more worried about Victorians going home, as the rest of the interstate teams are.

Can you demonstrate that WA players go home at a higher rate than players from other states?
 

Johnny Bananas

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I would have thought you'd be more worried about Victorians going home, as the rest of the interstate teams are.
I am. But not so much now, since we have mitigated that problem by recruiting country boys and building a good club culture. There's also a difference in that there are many more teams in Victoria and fewer people living there per team, so there is more competition for go homers, which keeps the price higher and doesn't pool all the returning talent to one or two teams and make them overly powerful.

Can you demonstrate that WA players go home at a higher rate than players from other states?
Why should I have to? That isn't the point I made. You either missed it or are creating a straw man.
 

Tayl0r

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I am. But not so much now, since we have mitigated that problem by recruiting country boys and building a good club culture. There's also a difference in that there are many more teams in Victoria and fewer people living there per team, so there is more competition for go homers, which keeps the price higher and doesn't pool all the returning talent to one or two teams and make them overly powerful.


Why should I have to? That isn't the point I made. You either missed it or are creating a straw man.
You're basing your position off a fear that WA players are rushing home, requiring another WA team to mitigate this advantage.
I'll put some stats on the page. Just the national draft here.

2008 draft - 16 players drafted from WAFL. 5 of which drafted to WA clubs. Total traded/FA back to WA since = ...
2009 draft - 13 players drafted from WAFL. 5 of which drafted to WA clubs. Total traded/FA back to WA since = Lewis Jetta, Travis Colyer
2010 draft - 13 drafted from WAFL. 2 of which drafted to WA clubs. Total traded/FA back to WA since = Bennell, Conca, Cripps
2011 draft - 14 drafted from WAFL. 2 of which drafted to WA clubs. Total traded/FA back to WA since = Yeo, Hamling, Hill, Kersten, Ah Chee
2012 draft - 12 drafted from WAFL. 5 of which drafted to WA clubs. Total traded/FA back to WA since = ...
2013 draft - 12 drafted from WAFL. 3 of which drafted to WA clubs. Total traded/FA back to WA since = McCarthy, Lobb
2014 draft - 9 drafted from WAFL. 3 of which drafted to WA clubs. Total traded/FA back to WA since = ...
2015 draft - 7 drafted from WAFL. 1 of which drafted to WA clubs. Total traded/FA back to WA since = ...
2016 draft - 10 drafted from WAFL. 3 of which drafted to WA clubs. Total traded/FA back to WA since = ...
2017 draft - 15 drafted from WAFL. 4 of which drafted to WA clubs. Total traded/FA back to WA since = ...

That's 121 (-33) = 88 players from the WAFL out into the eastern states, of which in the last ten years of trade periods a total of 12 have returned. 13.63% of players drafted from WA to outside WA have returned home to play AFL.

Meanwhile Chris Yarran, Aaron Black, Trent Dennis-Lane, Ben Newton, Alex Fasolo, Tom Derickx, Mitchell (barely counts), Kent, (I won't count Jonathon Marsh), Jarrod Pickett, Jarrod Garlett, McGovern and Adams have moved on from their non-WA drafted club to another non-WA club. 12 out of 88 = 13.63%.

So over the last ten years of transfer periods a player drafted from a WA club is just as likely to be traded or move onto another non-WA club as they are to a WA club.
 

jatz14

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Good thing the WAFC isn't making decisions here. There are an awful lot of WA players going back home even now and I think competition for them should increase in future as the AFL thought in the 90s.


Fremantle made a $2 million profit last financial year and has total equity of $15 million. Again, there's a serious lack of perspective here where Freo fans seem to have some 'poor us', small-club mentality when you're very successful off-field. Not compared to West Coast, no, but the league is a lot bigger than just West Coast. Freo are successful by league-wide standards even if they're not a financial behemoth like their neighbours.


Freo is a big rival now. A third team wouldn't be, not for years at least. We should also note that Freo is centred around a particular geographic area and have firmly entrenched themselves in the south now. Do they have many fans from North of the river? I honestly don't know, but I suspect they don't, because I imagine the geography limits their appeal somewhat. A club based north of the river might be able to attract fans without cutting into Freo's support.
The deal is, the AFL does not directly fund footy in WA. The WAFC does, from money received from WC and FFC. A third team, even if it didn't lose money (almost a certainty imop), isn't going to make much, and will cut into profits at WC and FFC.

If the funds for footy development in WA start to dry up, what would the AFL do about it. It cannot both demand that the WAFC deal with the cost of WA footy, while making decisions that inhibit their income.

Break even at Optus is known to be high, it's one of the reasons ticket prices are so high. A third team goes broke if it plays there, and really quickly.

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NoobPie

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The deal is, the AFL does not directly fund footy in WA. The WAFC does, from money received from WC and FFC. A third team, even if it didn't lose money (almost a certainty imop), isn't going to make much, and will cut into profits at WC and FFC.

If the funds for footy development in WA start to dry up, what would the AFL do about it. It cannot both demand that the WAFC deal with the cost of WA footy, while making decisions that inhibit their income.

Break even at Optus is known to be high, it's one of the reasons ticket prices are so high. A third team goes broke if it plays there, and really quickly.

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I'm happy to go with the consensus of sandgropers on this one which appears to be overwhelmingly against the idea of a third team

What is missing in your analysis though is the fact that a third WA team means financially:

-an extra 11 games in perth and at perth stadium
-an extra 4 derbies, including 2 extra eagles and dockers away games

and non-financial factors
-an extra ~45 roster spots, including for WA kids
-one less trip a year for the existing WA sides
 

jatz14

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Will a second team in brisbane (as they are touting) in the nrl get supporters? Or do all brisbane based nrl fans have their team already?

Are there parallels?
Dont know the set up in Brisbane well enough to answer, but there are some specific circumstances around the entry of Freo in the comp that gave them a market, that wouldn't apply to a third team in WA. Firstly, the set up of the Eagles, and the affect it had on the WAFL alienated some WA people so that it became, any team except the Eagles. Second, Freo had a distinct footballing identity already in a way no other part of Perth did. Lots of people were ready to support a Freo team over a Perth team. Doesn't apply in the same way to somewhere like Joondalup.

So, to answer your question, is there an undercurrent of resentment to Brisbane for a new team to tap into, is there an area of Brisbane that sees itself as distinct from Brisbane, with a separate sporting history? I think Brisbane has been around to long for the first to apply in the same way. Freo where set up at a time some of the resentment about what had happened to the WAFL was still fresh.
 

The_Wookie

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The deal is, the AFL does not directly fund footy in WA. The WAFC does, from money received from WC and FFC. A third team, even if it didn't lose money (almost a certainty imop), isn't going to make much, and will cut into profits at WC and FFC.

If the funds for footy development in WA start to dry up, what would the AFL do about it. It cannot both demand that the WAFC deal with the cost of WA footy, while making decisions that inhibit their income.

Break even at Optus is known to be high, it's one of the reasons ticket prices are so high. A third team goes broke if it plays there, and really quickly.

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The AFL does directly give the WAFC $2 million a year in funding, and i believe it doesnt collect finals ticketing revenue from Optus Stadium.
 

The_Reaper

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Another thing is that Freo at least has the south of river as a logical geographical heartland as well as a strong historical identity.

There is nowhere else in Perth which offers this for hypothetical team 3.
 

Howard Littlejohn

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If we follow the trend then we might see 10 to 20,000 showing up to games - the AFL then has to decide if it's going to pay money to supplement the cost of the Joondalup Falcons. I expect they will say: "You get $2,000,000 or so out of the Eagles each year that they don't get to spend to make their club stronger, take more of that WAFC, it's your problem."
The third (and fourth) team would have little support initially, but would still get sponsorship and over a few decades should become mid-tier clubs. No financial threat to West Coast, but off-field able to complete with say geelong or Port.
You would get four; probably five and maybe even six though that's a stretch; sustainable teams out of Perth before one from Canberra or Tasmania.
 

Tayl0r

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The third (and fourth) team would have little support initially, but would still get sponsorship and over a few decades should become mid-tier clubs. No financial threat to West Coast, but off-field able to complete with say geelong or Port.
You would get four; probably five and maybe even six though that's a stretch; sustainable teams out of Perth before one from Canberra or Tasmania.
The AFL priority is new eyes to watch the tv so they can sell their next tv rights deal for twice as much and the salary cap can increase by another 40%.

Those eyeballs are already watching in WA or will be eventually, the new eyeballs are in NSW and QLD.
 
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