4 new covid cases in Victoria

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harrythetiger

Jack Graham That Is 🏆🏆🏆
Sep 13, 2015
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Hmm rather than predicting that people WILL get infected over the next WEEK - how about we just take it day by day like they always say and wait for testing to give the results?
If 1 in 100 close contacts on average becomes a positive case, and there are 1000 close contacts, the chance of none of them testing positive is 0.004%.
Believe it or not this is them setting up for a point you will actually like - when we do have a couple of positive cases in a few days and the media hound them over it, they will just say ‘yeah we expected this’
If they’re all isolating at home then it won’t have an impact on restrictions.
 

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harrythetiger

Jack Graham That Is 🏆🏆🏆
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It's going to be a tough sell. We only got to 75% before Lockdown 4.0 and Delta strain hadn't been seen or heard of in Australia up to that point.
Every time we reopen it gets quicker. We had 60 odd straight 0 days late last year and we got 30% on Boxing Day.
Within 40 days of the Holiday inn lockdown in february we had 75%.
 

Sttew

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 28, 2006
20,871
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Who's asking?
AFL Club
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Every time we reopen it gets quicker. We had 60 odd straight 0 days late last year and we got 30% on Boxing Day.
Within 40 days of the Holiday inn lockdown in february we had 75%.
We'll know soon, I think. Gil is now on record as saying MCG is the obvious preference but the AFL will not hesitate selling the GF to WA. It will come down to how full the stadium will be, and for obvious planning purposes the AFL will want assurances pronto. If the government says it can't do that or won't guarantee, say 85%, then I'd say its gone. The AFL isn't going to risk it's jewel in the crown
 

harrythetiger

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Sep 13, 2015
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We'll know soon, I think. Gil is now on record as saying MCG is the obvious preference but the AFL will not hesitate selling the GF to WA. It will come down to how full the stadium will be, and for obvious planning purposes the AFL will want assurances pronto. If the government says it can't do that or won't guarantee, say 85%, then I'd say its gone. The AFL isn't going to risk it's jewel in the crown
If its anything above 60% it's still no question at the MCG. I expect we'll have something pretty modest (<25%) in R14, 50% in R15 and then onwards and upwards from there.
 

harrythetiger

Jack Graham That Is 🏆🏆🏆
Sep 13, 2015
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Say covid slows down now, reckon the g would be able to get 100 by the gf?
It's definitely open for debate but I think if we have no further outbreaks it will be a good chance. Based on supply we could have around half the population vaccinated with their first dose by that point, and 30-40% fully vaccinated (https://chrisbillington.net/aus_vaccinations.html), which will help significantly.

Almost certainly minimum 85% by GF day since that's what we got to prior to the newest outbreak.
 

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Pickitt

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Apr 30, 2021
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It's definitely open for debate but I think if we have no further outbreaks it will be a good chance. Based on supply we could have around half the population vaccinated with their first dose by that point, and 30-40% fully vaccinated (https://chrisbillington.net/aus_vaccinations.html), which will help significantly.

Almost certainly minimum 85% by GF day since that's what we got to prior to the newest outbreak.
Is there much of a atmosphere difference at 85? Never went to a game since 2019
 

harrythetiger

Jack Graham That Is 🏆🏆🏆
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Is there much of a atmosphere difference at 85? Never went to a game since 2019
Your guess is as good as mine here, I haven't been to anything near that since 2019 either. All I can probably add is that once crowds got up to 75% it felt pretty normal in terms of distribution of the crowd. 50% was a bit strange, because of the way they did it at the MCG everyone gravitated to the edges of bays, leaving the middle alone. It looked a bit weird was all.
 

swingdog

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 3, 2007
6,916
7,726
Melbourne
AFL Club
West Coast
It's definitely open for debate but I think if we have no further outbreaks it will be a good chance. Based on supply we could have around half the population vaccinated with their first dose by that point, and 30-40% fully vaccinated (https://chrisbillington.net/aus_vaccinations.html), which will help significantly.

Almost certainly minimum 85% by GF day since that's what we got to prior to the newest outbreak.
Maybe they could use it to drive vaccinations. You can only attend if you've had the jab, the city with the most jabs gets to host the grand final!
 

Pakenhamsaint

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Jan 5, 2011
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We'll know soon, I think. Gil is now on record as saying MCG is the obvious preference but the AFL will not hesitate selling the GF to WA. It will come down to how full the stadium will be, and for obvious planning purposes the AFL will want assurances pronto. If the government says it can't do that or won't guarantee, say 85%, then I'd say its gone. The AFL isn't going to risk it's jewel in the crown
Gil and the AFL have sent a not so subtle message to the Vic Government. Get you house in order or else.
 

Lavender Bushranger

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 25, 2005
7,345
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Grogansville
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Hawthorn debutant tonight just said he was able to get 6-7 family members up to Sydney to watch him.

Am I missing something?

But can’t allow a few more at a funeral for a young boy in the country?
If I've learned anything throughout this pandemic when it comes to those with extreme views - yes, it's highly likely you are missing something.
 

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