Okay, would have been better to say "likely" or "could" but this seems like splitting hairs.
-
LIVE: St Kilda v Western Bulldogs - 7:30PM Thu
Squiggle tips Saints at 51% chance -- What's your tip? -- Team line-ups »
Victorian Covid Outbreak 2021
- Thread starter Magpie45
- Start date
- Tagged users None
Okay, would have been better to say "likely" or "could" but this seems like splitting hairs.
If 1 in 100 close contacts on average becomes a positive case, and there are 1000 close contacts, the chance of none of them testing positive is 0.004%.
Believe it or not this is them setting up for a point you will actually like - when we do have a couple of positive cases in a few days and the media hound them over it, they will just say ‘yeah we expected this’
If they’re all isolating at home then it won’t have an impact on restrictions.
Pakenhamsaint
Premium Platinum
- Jan 5, 2011
- 46,192
- 37,584
- AFL Club
- St Kilda
85 percent.
‘Extremely overwhelmingly likely’
Every time we reopen it gets quicker. We had 60 odd straight 0 days late last year and we got 30% on Boxing Day.
Within 40 days of the Holiday inn lockdown in february we had 75%.
You can't kiss at a brothel.
And most dudes are done within a couple of minutes which doesn't qualify it as ckose contact.
- Mar 20, 2009
- 14,393
- 16,743
- AFL Club
- Tasmania
- Other Teams
- Jacksonville
- Banned
- #1,757
A few minutes? How do they do that?You can't kiss at a brothel.
And most dudes are done within a couple of minutes which doesn't qualify it as ckose contact.
Sttew
Brownlow Medallist
Does this statement come from personal experience?
Last edited:
Sttew
Brownlow Medallist
We'll know soon, I think. Gil is now on record as saying MCG is the obvious preference but the AFL will not hesitate selling the GF to WA. It will come down to how full the stadium will be, and for obvious planning purposes the AFL will want assurances pronto. If the government says it can't do that or won't guarantee, say 85%, then I'd say its gone. The AFL isn't going to risk it's jewel in the crown
If its anything above 60% it's still no question at the MCG. I expect we'll have something pretty modest (<25%) in R14, 50% in R15 and then onwards and upwards from there.
- Apr 30, 2021
- 13,158
- 19,452
- AFL Club
- Melbourne
- Other Teams
- Port Melbourne, Carlisle, Celtics, GCS
Say covid slows down now, reckon the g would be able to get 100 by the gf?
It's definitely open for debate but I think if we have no further outbreaks it will be a good chance. Based on supply we could have around half the population vaccinated with their first dose by that point, and 30-40% fully vaccinated (https://chrisbillington.net/aus_vaccinations.html), which will help significantly.
Almost certainly minimum 85% by GF day since that's what we got to prior to the newest outbreak.
- Apr 30, 2021
- 13,158
- 19,452
- AFL Club
- Melbourne
- Other Teams
- Port Melbourne, Carlisle, Celtics, GCS
Is there much of a atmosphere difference at 85? Never went to a game since 2019
Your guess is as good as mine here, I haven't been to anything near that since 2019 either. All I can probably add is that once crowds got up to 75% it felt pretty normal in terms of distribution of the crowd. 50% was a bit strange, because of the way they did it at the MCG everyone gravitated to the edges of bays, leaving the middle alone. It looked a bit weird was all.
Maybe they could use it to drive vaccinations. You can only attend if you've had the jab, the city with the most jabs gets to host the grand final!
Sttew
Brownlow Medallist
Proportionately, of course
wowlace
Norm Smith Medallist
At this rate Victoria will be the most vaccinated state. Good chance for 100% cap.
Will be interesting to see if the demand holds up after a few weeks of 0s. We have a tendency to move on pretty quickly from these outbreaks once restrictions ease.
Pakenhamsaint
Premium Platinum
- Jan 5, 2011
- 46,192
- 37,584
- AFL Club
- St Kilda
Gil and the AFL have sent a not so subtle message to the Vic Government. Get you house in order or else.
Woah!
What if it goes the other way and lower percentage of people don't buy GF tickets?
Sttew
Brownlow Medallist
Somebody better tell ‘Professor’ Sutton to stop talking up the beast. It’s all about the optics
If I've learned anything throughout this pandemic when it comes to those with extreme views - yes, it's highly likely you are missing something.
Ok good, let’s get the insults out of the way early. Now let’s try with explanations next.. how does a group of 6-7 in lockdown get to NSW for a footy game?
