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Player Watch #44 Sydney Stack

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God help the next campaigner.

He controls his aggression beautifully. Got a mature footy head on him. Havent been this excited by a player since Cotch I reckon.
 
So in terms of Syd’s contract does he need to be promoted to the Sr list at the end of the year before offering him a longer term deal or is it possible to sign him up long term while still being on the rookie list?
 
So in terms of Syd’s contract does he need to be promoted to the Sr list at the end of the year before offering him a longer term deal or is it possible to sign him up long term while still being on the rookie list?

I don't think there is any real doubt he will be promoted and offered a longer deal barring major derailment. If he wasn't offered that then other clubs would swoop and correct the situation very quickly. I would expect two years at $350k or something like that for Stack if he continues his current form and no shock if another club tries to trump that with a higher and longer offer. Based on what we have seen, why wouldn't you? But surely the Tigers get him locked away on reasonable terms.

My understanding is there is a limit to the amount of years you can be a rookie before you must be delisted or promoted, I think this has been three seasons. Unsure if this has changed for this season.
 
If he is on $75k + match payments now, the club could easily offer him $150k + match payments for two years and the kid would jump at it.

Doubling his pay check is a fantastic reward and sign of faith in our offer.
 

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If you were a rival club, and presuming Stack holds his form, would you let Richmond get away with offering $200k or less per year for him? He looks fit enough, more than tough enough, highly skilled, fast and is a good decision maker at AFL level at the age of 18. Say you were the Swans for e.g., you'd be contacting his agent and letting him know $1m for 3 years is on the table at least wouldn't you? You then come up with a trade to match the offer plus allow for his potential, say pick 12 or so. Or am I missing something? Any team with good cap space should be sharpening the pencil for a player like Stack, so the Tigers might have to err on the side of generosity with him.
 
If you were a rival club, and presuming Stack holds his form, would you let Richmond get away with offering $200k or less per year for him? He looks fit enough, more than tough enough, highly skilled, fast and is a good decision maker at AFL level at the age of 18. Say you were the Swans for e.g., you'd be contacting his agent and letting him know $1m for 3 years is on the table at least wouldn't you? You then come up with a trade to match the offer plus allow for his potential, say pick 12 or so. Or am I missing something? Any team with good cap space should be sharpening the pencil for a player like Stack, so the Tigers might have to err on the side of generosity with him.

I think he signed for one year but isn’t a rookie as the rule we used to sign him meant he went onto the primary list.


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If you think Stack would even dream of leaving the one club that gave him a chance for one of the 17 that wrote him off, you haven't been paying attention.

Of course we all hope he stays and we all expect he will as well. But let's say you are correct and he says Richmond is the only club that valued me so I am staying there.

Wind the clock forward to contract time. Hypothetical of course, but tet's say every other club makes enquiries around the $350k pa and above level. And Tigers offer him $200k take it or leave it. Doesn't that mean in Stack's mind Richmond goes from being the only club that valued him to now being the only club that under-values him? Do you think he would stay because Richmond was the only club that valued him as being worth anything before?

Thankfully, in practice it is not likely to play out like that but Richmond will surely need to make him an offer that makes him feel he is being valued in the correct range.
 

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Of course we all hope he stays and we all expect he will as well. But let's say you are correct and he says Richmond is the only club that valued me so I am staying there.

Wind the clock forward to contract time. Hypothetical of course, but tet's say every other club makes enquiries around the $350k pa and above level. And Tigers offer him $200k take it or leave it. Doesn't that mean in Stack's mind Richmond goes from being the only club that valued him to now being the only club that under-values him? Do you think he would stay because Richmond was the only club that valued him as being worth anything before?

Thankfully, in practice it is not likely to play out like that but Richmond will surely need to make him an offer that makes him feel he is being valued in the correct range.

The kid can play no doubt about it, however the risk of Syd and the offseason would still be there.

As thrilled as I am with his form and dedication over preseason it doesn't completely remove the dangers that recruiters saw and determined the risk was to high..

There is still risk and I'm sure were all desperate for a great 250+ game career from stacky, however his just turned 19 and been working hard for 6 months, cant see anyone throwing a million bucks at him just yet!!!
 
If you were a rival club, and presuming Stack holds his form, would you let Richmond get away with offering $200k or less per year for him? He looks fit enough, more than tough enough, highly skilled, fast and is a good decision maker at AFL level at the age of 18. Say you were the Swans for e.g., you'd be contacting his agent and letting him know $1m for 3 years is on the table at least wouldn't you? You then come up with a trade to match the offer plus allow for his potential, say pick 12 or so. Or am I missing something? Any team with good cap space should be sharpening the pencil for a player like Stack, so the Tigers might have to err on the side of generosity with him.


Of course clubs will have a good hard look at Syd. But also they know he is a rookie with issues that made him undraftable. I would guess that a desperate club would offer him serious $. And the tigers would be forced to increase their offer. But if he is that valuable then he is worth a high pick. So any club that wants him has to trade off $ and a high pick against a high quality kid - but one with some issues. And we know clubs often tend to be quite conservative with players that have troubles but and in a good place. Change the place maybe issues come back. I can't see that with Sydney. But to go hard for him the club would need to be quite sure and offer up a lot.
 
The kid can play no doubt about it, however the risk of Syd and the offseason would still be there.

As thrilled as I am with his form and dedication over preseason it doesn't completely remove the dangers that recruiters saw and determined the risk was to high..

There is still risk and I'm sure were all desperate for a great 250+ game career from stacky, however his just turned 19 and been working hard for 6 months, cant see anyone throwing a million bucks at him just yet!!!

I suppose then let's try the exercise of putting some values on him as a player on what he has shown so far and the risk you speak of, which I am sure hangs over him to some extent until he has removed it over the course of the the next year or two.

This is how I would value him as a player based on what he has shown both in the pre season(where he showed he can do more than is required to get himself right at AFL level) and the matches he has played so far....

1. Value as a player based on what he has shown

It is a small but very impressive body of work, and he has shown he does not have any obvious weakness and has a few areas where he already looks above players like Chris Mayne, Reece Conca, there are probably others, but these guys are known to have switched clubs on longish deals in the $400-500k range. You could form an argument to say those players are overvalued and they might have a bit of leadership/gameplan knowledge and adherence over Sydney at this stage. But he looks quicker than both, better than both in the air and is without any shadow more skilled with ball in hand. He is about as fearless and tough as you could be as well. Stay at home one club players filling similar roles like say Neville Jetta, Jarryn Geary, Nick Smith, Daniel Rich, Jason Johannisen, Caleb Daniel, Ed Richards, Kade Simpson, Shaun Atley, Brodie Smith, Rory Laird.....I have no certain knowledge what these guys are on, but would guess they all fall within the $250k(maybe Richards, Jetta at this end) to $600k range(maybe Geary, Simpson, Johannisen at this upper end.) Right now, based on what Sydney has shown to date, would you swap ANY of these players for him? If so, how many? Say a mythical match was being played next week for your life, how many of those guys are you picking ahead of young Sydney? A lot of those players have experience(therefore knowhow) and leadership over Stack but I defy anyone to find one of those players who was tracking better at the same stage, remembering he is 18, had a late start to the pre season and we are at round 7....

I think I take Stack over some of those guys right now, and this should place him at least around $350k value.

2. Additional value items

Richmond is not especially deficient for alternatives for his role, Short, Houli, now Edwards, so this would not add to his value.

His potential can only be seen as enormous. Ok, let's say he is so advanced for his age and has pushed himself so hard he already sits near his lifetime peak performance...you are looking at the potential of a top ten player on your list for 10-15 seasons, as opposed to a lot of players who get to this level with maybe 8 seasons left on the clock.

Marketability. Not sure I can recall too many 18 year olds to capture the public imagination to a greater extent than Stack already has. Even to a club like Richmond, this is worth something.

I am adding $50k for these additional value items.

So this places him at least around $400k value.

3. Subtracting value items.

His past indiscretions(aged 17 and below, not supported by a professional environment.)

The fact he had to ask Dimma what time training was while he was living with him.

For these doubts I maybe shave a year off his contract from 4 to 3, and discount by $50k.

Maybe, you get a little discount for being Richmond, a club where players really want to be right now. Maybe this saves $50k


Conclusion....get on the front foot and parcel him up for three years at $300-350k. Will maybe cost us a Brandon Ellis or Grigg retirement or someone else getting moved on we'd rather keep, but that is a good show of faith and reward for what the player is achieving and doesn't cruel the club in case of something going wrong.

Really interested to know how others would go about arriving at a value for Stack....
 

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I doubt he will even think about leaving Richmond until he's 24+. Also I doubt clubs offer him 350k+ this early either. A player they wouldn't even risk taking in the draft and has only been playing a month. He will sign another 2 with us on miles under 300k
 
Of course clubs will have a good hard look at Syd. But also they know he is a rookie with issues that made him undraftable. I would guess that a desperate club would offer him serious $. And the tigers would be forced to increase their offer. But if he is that valuable then he is worth a high pick. So any club that wants him has to trade off $ and a high pick against a high quality kid - but one with some issues. And we know clubs often tend to be quite conservative with players that have troubles but and in a good place. Change the place maybe issues come back. I can't see that with Sydney. But to go hard for him the club would need to be quite sure and offer up a lot.

Say a club offers him 4 years at $400k and the Tigers say no, can't get near that, best is 2 years at $250k. What pick is that worth? I sort of arrived at about pick 12 value in one post on this thread....
 
The thought of giving Sydney Stack $350k+ a year is just silly for many reasons

He got overlooked for a reason and to be over looked for the rookie draft is a big call and the issue's are /were real issue's that are not taken lightly and are not wiped out in 4 months.

Whilst stack has been great both on and off the ground he still needs to prove he can keep this up over the long term and im talking 2-3 years so until this time he doesnt get that sort of $$$.

$200k a year would be about the range we would pay a player that has agreed to extend and i would hate to think of the example we would be setting for players like Balta , Ross , RCD , Naish , Garth for future contract negotiations
 
The thought of giving Sydney Stack $350k+ a year is just silly for many reasons

He got overlooked for a reason and to be over looked for the rookie draft is a big call and the issue's are /were real issue's that are not taken lightly and are not wiped out in 4 months.

Whilst stack has been great both on and off the ground he still needs to prove he can keep this up over the long term and im talking 2-3 years so until this time he doesnt get that sort of $$$.

$200k a year would be about the range we would pay a player that has agreed to extend and i would hate to think of the example we would be setting for players like Balta , Ross , RCD , Naish , Garth for future contract negotiations


So the other clubs were right to overlook him, or wrong to overlook him? So far, he is making them look very wrong isn't he?

In answer to your point about setting an example for other young players, I would simply say Stack and also Ross have risen above the others on this list in terms of on field performance to date. They did not do this by accident, both apparently showed great dedication over the off season, well above and beyond what is normally expected.

If I were another club watching all this play out, and Richmond offered Balta, Ross, RCD, Naish, Garthwaite, Stack all similar contracts around $200k I would just simply target the ones that have already proven they are very good AFL players, Stack and Ross, and the one who appears to have massive potential in Balta, with much bigger offers. And I would leave RCD, Naish, Garth out of the shopping trolley for now. Why wouldn't another club make substantial offers to Stack, Balta and Ross if the Tigers don't move to reward them above others they are outperforming?
 
Effort over time is what’s missing, don’t get me wrong I think he’s a ripper but you don’t want the majority of your reason for a long term contract to be speculation.
I don’t think he’d look great to a different player group if he left for more money
 

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