4thawns MMA + maybe some boxing betting tracker

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4THAWN

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Been browsing this punting section of large sherrin dot com for a while and only just noticed this part.

why the heck not?

I already track my bets on another website but I'll do some here (well actually I probably wont remember to but I'll try lol)

1u = 1% of bankroll

No major MMA organizations running shows this week and no props are out yet for next week's bellator or UFC (unsurprisingly).

We'll start with 1.5u Maki Pitolo @ 2.45 over Dusko Todorovic. No real conviction about Maki but he's not as bad as his record suggests. Fairly tight boxing offense and can wrestle a bit too. With the right gameplan he can trouble Dusko who lacks some fundamentals in his game. Probably a 50/50 fight. Sadly had 2.85 on this same bet when it was originally booked.
 
Having some small boxing bets due to lack of other things to bet on.

Would probably be having the house on Seals to beat Perry in Triller if I could get on


0.25u Multi
* Ford Caraballo Goes to dec
*Ken Ball Jr
*Mati v Demario goes to dec

5 multi roughly.
 

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4THAWN said:
Having some small boxing bets due to lack of other things to bet on.

Would probably be having the house on Seals to beat Perry in Triller if I could get on


0.25u Multi
* Ford Caraballo Goes to dec
*Ken Ball Jr
*Mati v Demario goes to dec

5 multi roughly.
Click to expand...
mati fight is off
 
Bellator today

1u Pettis by KO @ 13 - PB
0.35u Sanchez by KO @ 9 - PB
0.15u Sanchez r3 @ 21 - PB
 
Pre bets for UFC today:
1.5u Maki Pitolo 2.45
0.75u Gruetzmacher 2.07 + 0.25u Gritz r3 19s
1.25u Riddel 2.0 + 0.25u Riddel r3 21s
1u Allen wins by KO/Dec 2.20 + 0.2u Allen KO 7.5 (out to 10s now)
0.3u Hill by decision 9.0
0.15u Guida by KO 9.5 + 0.1u Guida r3 26s
0.85u Morono by KO 5.0 + 0.15u Morono r3 15s
1u Knight v Menifield goes to decision 2.42
1u Morales by KO 7.0
 
4THAWN said:
Pre bets for UFC today:
1.5u Maki Pitolo 2.45
0.75u Gruetzmacher 2.07 + 0.25u Gritz r3 19s
1.25u Riddel 2.0 + 0.25u Riddel r3 21s
1u Allen wins by KO/Dec 2.20 + 0.2u Allen KO 7.5 (out to 10s now)
0.3u Hill by decision 9.0
0.15u Guida by KO 9.5 + 0.1u Guida r3 26s
0.85u Morono by KO 5.0 + 0.15u Morono r3 15s
1u Knight v Menifield goes to decision 2.42
1u Morales by KO 7.0
Click to expand...
total for UFC was +0.67u

Takes us to overall +11.42u
 
Bets so far for UFC 269
honestly disgusted at the number of GTD/Dec variants i've got. Could be painful.

1u Nunes v Pena GTD 4.65
0.25u Nunes by decision 6.0
1u Ponz v Neal GTD 2.48
0.25u Neal dec 7.0
1u Garbrandt v KKF GTD 2.32
0.25u Pedro Muhnoz by sub 17.0
0.75u Tuivasa v Sakai GTD 2.85
0.5u Tuivasa dec 9.0
0.75u Robertson by KO 7.75
0.25u Cachoeira wins in rounds 2/3 18.0
0.67u Costa by decision 7.0
0.3u Wright by decision 12.0

Currently outlay on UFC 269 = 6.97u
 
not much to like this week

1u ewell dec 4.40

will probably bet more during the event but unlikely to post here
 
UFC back on sunday

0.75u Brahimaj by KO 11s + 0.25u Brahimaj KO3 56s (PB)
0.25u Algeo r2 12s + 0.25u Algeo r3 19s (365)

not much action so far, this card has fallen to pieces in the last week.
 

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+1.4 on Pickett
-1 on Brahimaj KO
-0.5 on algeo props
-0.1u multi
total for event -0.2u

takes total to +7.48u
 
Last edited:
Already taken 1u on gane dec at 4.75 a while ago. 4.50 best now at SB. Still good
adding 0.75u to fight goes to decision at 3.45 on SB and 0.25u on Ngannou dec at 15s 365.

1.5u Giles 2.15 Uni also
 
4THAWN said:
1.5u Giles - 2.15. 2 ? on trevin - Weight cut to 170 and fight IQ. On tape is clearly the better fighter, think he wins if he can fight smart and the weight cut doesn't destroy him.

1u Gane by dec 4.75 - bet365 but i think lads/neds now have that price instead
1.25u Fight GTD - 4s- neds
0.25u Ngannou dec 15s - plenty

Think Gane is 60% here and at least half of his win equity comes as dec so think theres an edge here. Happy to risk the biggest HW puncher in MMA history finding a KO at this price.

0.75u Wellington Turman by dec 7s Neds + 0.25u Turman r3 23s B365.
Really DON'T like Turman as a fighter and pretty much immediately regretted making these bets but too late now. Turman probably needs to put a pace on vieira, and obviously needs to survive the wrestling and grappling here to be a chance. Rodolfo volume, gassiness and overall game really makes it hard for him to cover as a big fave. This is just a way for me to to have a shot at a good return on a Vieira fade while keeping my exposure minimal (1u total).

0.25u Multi Lads
Stamman by points 3.75
giles 2.05
pereira 1.38
frevola 1.53

16.23 before a boost.
Sort of me trying to keep exposure down on Stamann but also get something out of him if he wins a dec. I think 3 fighters listed below him should all win based on tape.

Punt well people, this card should be a ripper.

Might have more bets
Click to expand...
Small adjustment here - its actually 0.75u Fight GTD at 3.45 topped up with 0.5u GTD at 4s.
 
1u Battle dec 6.50 b365
0.55u Battle r2 10.50 Betright
0.45u Battle r3 19s PB (17s now still good)
 
0.75u Casteneda by decision at 4.50 (actually got 5s on topsport through fight specials but won't record it at promo price)
 
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