Cdog71
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I think this where we see things differently and I don’t mean to be rude.
Player Watch #5: Brandon Ellis - off to GC pick 39 as compo
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If 63% of his disposals are in defence, and thats undisputed fact, and his heat map shows around 80% in the back half, then we do see things different.
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the next messiah for carltoon
Cdog71
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This is about you speaking in absolutes about the way you interpret his game I don’t see it that way.
I don’t see Ellis as part of Defensive rotations
He’s a defensive wingman, we see him differently but it doesn’t follow that 63% of his disposals is 63% of his game time and whether its back half or forward half.
It’s the wing and he’s expected to play between the arcs.
I don’t see Ellis as part of Defensive rotations
He’s a defensive wingman, we see him differently but it doesn’t follow that 63% of his disposals is 63% of his game time and whether its back half or forward half.
It’s the wing and he’s expected to play between the arcs.
Phar Ace
Brownlow Medallist
Harsh, again. For example, I didn't have any problem with most of his efforts against Carlton in the second half. Was a bit quiet in the first half I thought but was neither offensive or great.
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Lot easier to get out all by yourself in the back half than the fwd half.Easier to put his hands up and yell quick quick give it to me only to see him chip it sideways or backwards or if he happens to be under pressure give off a hospital handpass.
It is harder to get loose up forward and snag a mark or two near goal!
But lets acknowledge something here...we have a 'gun' defense played by 'gun' players the caliber of Rance, Vlas, Broad, Houli, Grimes...
Why the fecking hell would such gun players pass the ball to Ellis if he was going to recieve the footy under pressure...it just doesn't make sense!
Not really.... don’t see Lynch down in defence or grimes up forward. Ellis drifts back and gets his little easy kicks to put it in basic terms. As I’ve said its all good and well being a gut runner but his possessions are nothing touches and don’t hurt the opponent at all. There’s a reason Brando never sees a tag in his life. Compare him to a bloke like gaff who plays the same position and they are a mile apart, gaff breaks lines and hurts the oppo with his kicking game.
Phar Ace
Brownlow Medallist
Gaff breaks line and jaws mate. More hurt per Kg I'd say.
So you are telling me you have never looked and seen all 36 players forward of the Centre Circle? Where is that smiley with the mouth agape, eyes wide open and shaking his head vigourisly side to side when you need it........................
_RT_
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Given Gaff seems to be the popular comparison to Ellis lets have a look at a few stats.
Both have played 18 games this year.
Disposals
Ellis 22.4 Gaff 31.8
Marks
Ellis 5.7 Gaff 6.3
Tackles
Ellis 2.7 Gaff 2.5
I50s
Ellis 2.5 Gaff 4.2
Goal Assists
Ellis 0.3 Gaff 0.6
Contested Possessions
Ellis 6.5 Gaff 9.0
Uncontested Possessions
Ellis 16 Gaff 22.3
Effective Disposals
Ellis 17.2 Gaff 22.5
Disposal Efficiency %
Ellis 76.8 Gaff 70.8
Clangers
Ellis 2.1 Gaff 3.2
Clearances
Ellis 1.5 Gaff 4.3
R50s
Ellis 2.9 Gaff 2.4
One Percenters
Ellis 1.7 Gaff 0.7
Turnovers
Ellis 3.7 Gaff 5.7
Bounces
Ellis 0.6 Gaff 0.6
Score Involvements
Ellis 4.8 Gaff 5.2
Intercepts
Ellis 4.4 Gaff 3.9
Metres Gained
Ellis 282.7 Gaff 425.6
Metres Gained Per Disposal
Ellis 12.6 Gaff 13.3
Gaff gets more of the ball than Ellis and as a result wins slightly more contested footy, a bit more uncontested footy and more effective disposals. Ellis has a better disposal efficiency, while Gaff commits more turnovers and clangers, understandable with him having more disposals. As far as run and carry is concerned they average the same number of bounces. Offensively Gaff has slightly more impact averaging higher Score Involvements and I50s, while Ellis has slightly more impact defensively winning more intercept possessions and having more R50s.
Now for the interesting stat, given how much has been made about Ellis' poor metres gained per disposals it's surprising to find that while Gaff gains more overall metres per game, per disposal he only averages an extra 70cm gained. Now given Gaff averages 6.5 more kicks a fair assumption would be that Gaff has a lot of short sideways kicks that don't really gain any metres, given the same assessment has been made of Ellis given his low metres gained per disposal average.
Gaff ranks 1st for disposals and 2nd for metres gained at WCE, while Ellis ranks 5th for disposals and 12th for metres gained. To me it's clear that Gaff is the Eagles prime mover of the ball where as for us we use guys like Houli Martin Prestia & Short who all average the same or more metres gained than Gaff, but gain significantly more metres per disposal than Gaff does.
Which makes me wonder if Gaff played for us would he be used in the same way that he is used at WCE and further more would Ellis be used differently if he was at another club or we didn't have other more attacking options to use instead?
So we may aswel not have positions on field? I think not! Yes all players push up and back on field but they still keep the basic structure mate.
Gaff is a star of the game.
Phar Ace
Brownlow Medallist
Great Statistical analysis - AGAIN! The other thing I would ask is with disposals, a marked difference in the combination of kicks vs handballs could go someway to explain metres gained discrepancy. Gaff works forward more and back less I would have thought from watching. Whereas Ellis is the opposite. Also observed Gaff do more stoppage work than Ellis would and Gaff is more likely to cover both sides of the ground than Ellis is. Metres covered would be interesting.
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Phar Ace
Brownlow Medallist
Chirlish response, if anything the AFL have mandated positions wuth 6 / 6 / 6. You know well enough what I was saying. The world loves to label everything and ground positions are not going away. But you didn't answer my question. Even on the TV they point to it from time to time. It's why the Interchange has many calling for it to be dropped radically in numbers allowed. It's why metres covered is up per player over the years. Players don't just own turf, they own space between opponents.
_RT_
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Last week Gaff ran 14.7km Ellis ran 14.5km. He also averaged 19.1m gained per disposal far above his season average. In terms of disposal breakdown Ellis averages 12.8 kicks & 9.7 handballs whereas Gaff is 19.3 kicks and 12.4 handballs.
Yes I know what you mean and tend to agree. Getting back to old Brando though........ his heatmap pretty much sums him up. Yes he has a tank and can find the ball. BUT imo he’s not damaging, he’s gutless and goes missing in big games. Let’s come back to this come finals time and see what his performances are like. IF he makes the cut.
tigerdan
Norm Smith Medallist
With respect, these stats we keep getting bombarded with don't really tell you if the guy is any good. I dare say the stats for Miles look pretty good as an onballer.
My only issue is he lacks composure when dragged deep in defence, particularly against the good teams, and he's a bit of a squib.
You don't pay overs for such a player. Especially when the AFL's magic formula will see us well compensated if he leaves.
We only have so much in our salary cap and no need to blow it on an outside winger with limitations.
If he says on modest pay he'll make a good depth player in the future. There's a reason why he was dropped for the finals last year.
My only issue is he lacks composure when dragged deep in defence, particularly against the good teams, and he's a bit of a squib.
You don't pay overs for such a player. Especially when the AFL's magic formula will see us well compensated if he leaves.
We only have so much in our salary cap and no need to blow it on an outside winger with limitations.
If he says on modest pay he'll make a good depth player in the future. There's a reason why he was dropped for the finals last year.
Phar Ace
Brownlow Medallist
I sit well in the middle on Brando. We have bookend extremists of MP and Bazzar, and i think it's fair to say you are just a little inside of MP, and bit outside of TI on what I'll call the Ellis scale of indifference.
Really don't like 'NOT Damaging', 'Gutless', but can live with 'goes missing in big games'. Could live with not damaging enough, and attack on the ball could be better. For mine it's never quite as bad as you claim - nor is it as good as Bazzar says.
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Phar Ace
Brownlow Medallist
Don't rely on stats to form an opinion, use them to find the right information to form an opinion. Stats start the analysis, not end it.
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Statistically speaking, that is.
Cdog71
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I might be wrong here, but I think I remember a couple of times when Brando was playing wing before he played half back where he was tagged and tagged out’ve the game after or around the period he was named ext aa squad and best 22 undr 22.
Then they shifted him to less wing more H/B rather than the way they’re playing him now.
Maybe there’s something in that..Brando is consistant and plays the percentages every time and no-one is gonna tag a def winger. If you can live without needing him to create or rely on him to take the game on, you don’t really lose anything if he keeps being consistant.
_RT_
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As mentioned stats on their own never tell the full story, but they do provide evidence one way or the other in relation to claims that are made and can really add to a discussion if people are open minded about them and prepared to look a bit deeper at what they are being used for.
For example in the last few pages assertions have been made that Ellis is nothing like Gaff when it comes to playing the wing, and on face value I agree with that even said the same thing myself, yet when you look in depth at their stats they are quite similar in a number of areas and quite different in others. One of the main issues is that Ellis gets little bang for his buck from disposals in terms of gaining ground, yet for the season Gaff only averages 1m more per disposal than Ellis despite being the Eagles prime ball mover.
When it comes to the metres gained stat that the public use/see, it basically means the metres gained heading towards goal, so if a so if a guy takes a 20m run and then kicks it 20m to a teammate ahead of you and then run another 10m then goes 30m to a leading forward, you gain 80m same as you would running 15 having a bounce running another 15 and then kicking it 50m to a contest. Difference is that in the first passage you get 2 disposals where as in the second you get the one.
As for your issues with Ellis I don't think anyone is saying he doesn't have these problems, but despite them he has still managed to carve out an 8 year 170 game career nobody does that at this level without having more positives than negatives regarding their overall game.
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He must be streets ahead on the list of "gutless" AFL/VFL players... about 170 ahead!
You missed Brownlow medal votes.
Gaff... 79 votes
Ellis... 25 votes
And to get some more current data..
Coaches votes this year...
Gaff... 38 votes
Ellis... 13 votes
There are stats, and there are other stats.
Comparing the impact of Gaff and Ellis is obviously vastly different to anyone watching the games.
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lol and i apologise for doing so. I take it by your comment it is not the role of our defenders to give it to Ellis whose job it is then to give it back so the defenders are the ones who run and carry and deliver.I take it that also means as good as they are they sometimes make a poor decision or two,
Ah well carry on then i understand where your coming from now!!!!!!!!!!
