Player Watch #50: Ben Brown - in talks with club for contract extension

RobZombie

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Rankings adjusted for points against ranking instead of ladder position:

View attachment 736452
Great work Pykie,

I was inspired by this to have a bit of a similar look. I weighted goals by actual points conceded rather than rankings, so with Geelong conceding 1462 points for the year and Gold Coast 2232, it was about 1.5 times easier to kick a goal against the top side than the bottom - or, a goal against CG was worth 2/3 of a goal against Geelong. Applying that to the entire ladder, I came out with this:

Brown: goals: 64, adj: 65.42
Cameron: goals: 67, adj: 65.56
Hawkins: goals: 52, adj: 51.80
Darling: goals: 52, adj: 52.42
Lynch: goals 54, adj: 54.54

So Cameron beating up on bad teams did account for the differences between his and BBB's final tallies, but probably not more than that. Brown was the only one of the top 5 to be more than a goal better than expected for quality of opposition.

Here is some python code that works that out.

#!/usr/bin/env python

from decimal import Decimal
from statistics import mean
import json

scores_against = {'GEE': 1462, 'COL': 1601, 'HAW': 1602,
'RIC': 1664, 'GWS': 1669, 'WCE': 1691,
'BRI': 1694, 'PTA': 1714, 'FRE': 1718,
'SYD': 1746, 'ADE': 1761, 'ESS': 1784,
'WBD': 1810, 'NME': 1834, 'CAR': 1905,
'STK': 1961, 'MEL': 1995, 'GCS': 2232}

m = mean(scores_against.values())

relative_value = {}
for k in scores_against:
rel = m/scores_against[k]
relative_value[k] = rel

players = {
'Brown': ['FRE 2', 'BRI 3', 'HAW 1', 'ADE 4', 'ESS 2', 'CAR 4', 'GEE 5',
'SYD 1', 'WBD 3', 'RIC 5', 'GCS 2', 'GWS 2', 'STK 3', 'ESS 6',
'BRI 3', 'WCE 2', 'HAW 4', 'PTA 10', 'MEL 2'],
'Cameron': ['ESS 4', 'WCE 3', 'RIC 7', 'GEE 3', 'FRE 4', 'SYD 3', 'STK 6',
'MEL 3', 'GCS 5', 'ADE 1', 'NME 1', 'ESS 3', 'BRI 2', 'RIC 3',
'COL 6', 'PTA 3', 'HAW 1', 'GCS 9'],
'Hawkins': ['COL 2', 'MEL 2', 'ADE 2', 'GWS 3', 'HAW 1', 'WCE 3', 'ESS 2',
'NME 4', 'WBD 4', 'GCS 4', 'SYD 4', 'RIC 4', 'ADE 2', 'WBD 2',
'HAW 2', 'STK 1', 'SYD 5', 'FRE 3', 'NME 2'],
'Darling': ['BRI 2', 'GWS 4', 'COL 1', 'FRE 3', 'GCS 2', 'STK 1', 'MEL 1',
'ADE 3', 'WBD 6', 'SYD 1', 'ESS 1', 'HAW 5', 'FRE 4', 'COL 3',
'MEL 4', 'NME 2', 'CAR 2', 'ADE 3', 'RIC 2', 'HAW 2'],
'Lynch': ['CAR 3', 'COL 3', 'GWS 4', 'PTA 6', 'MEL 1', 'FRE 2', 'HAW 3',
'ESS 2', 'NME 1', 'GEE 1', 'ADE 2', 'STK 3', 'GCS 3', 'GWS 3',
'PTA 3', 'COL 5', 'MEL 3', 'CAR 2', 'WCE 3', 'BRI 1']
}

goals = {}
for player, hauls in players.items():
goals[player] = {'raw': 0, 'adj': 0.0}
for haul in hauls:
(opp, gg) = haul.split()
goals[player]['raw'] += int(gg)
goals[player]['adj'] += int(gg) * float(relative_value[opp])

print(json.dumps(goals, indent=2))
 

ferball

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False. You’re just parroting a media narrative there. Browny’s always been surprisingly nimble at his feet for a bloke as big and gangly as he is, he manages to kick his fair share of goals from quick gathers at the feet and snap.
What the media really mean is that he lacks lateral movement but they don't understand how to use English properly so "not good at his feet" is all that comes out. I dunno ... is it their fault they are collectively stupid?

If he could move sideways like Cameron, kennedy or Buddy he'd be up there with the greatest forwards of all time already. As it is he's just the best FF in the comp over the last 3 seasons.

And he knows his limitations on the ground so he can be very effective with either quick shots on goal or (in past seasons anyway) assists. He doesn't try to do anything more if he has those options.
 

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giantroo

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While Gaff has recorded the most in a single game, it is Ben Brown who leads the way across the competition for the highest average distance covered.

The Telstra Tracker shows the North Melbourne goalkicker has an average of 15.6km per match, with the average across the League at 12.8km.

 

Devington

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While Gaff has recorded the most in a single game, it is Ben Brown who leads the way across the competition for the highest average distance covered.

The Telstra Tracker shows the North Melbourne goalkicker has an average of 15.6km per match, with the average across the League at 12.8km.

WTF was that shilling a the end of the article? God I hate the media in all shapes and form.


Anyway...
Do we have it 100% super duper official CONFIRMED that Browny isn't having any surgery?
 

King Corey

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An opportune time amidst some madness to remember we saw a North Melbourne kick 10 goals this year.

We haven't had many highlights in recent years but got to witness the biggest haul by a Roo for a long while.

In my book anyone who can knock up 10 goals in a game and 60+ goals each year is probably someone you look to keep on your list. But that's just me.
 

GarnerSmash

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An opportune time amidst some madness to remember we saw a North Melbourne kick 10 goals this year.

We haven't had many highlights in recent years but got to witness the biggest haul by a Roo for a long while.

In my book anyone who can knock up 10 goals in a game and 60+ goals each year is probably someone you look to keep on your list. But that's just me.
But he's a VEGAN!!!!
 

Snake_Baker

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Yes I agree, his form has definitely been good enough through the year to put to bed any claims of malnutrition.
Maybe a gentleman's agreement from all on the board that Ben's protein intake is his business and the benefits/drawbacks of same need not be discussed?

That's about it.

Best of luck to him.

I'm still going to be eating dead animals.
 

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3051

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Brown constantly exceeds my expectations - first could he kick a bag of 5? Check. Bag of 8? Check. Bag of 10? Check. I remember this guy running laps in the summer heat when no other North players were anywhere near Arden St around Christmas time. He loves footy and is constantly improving. What do you think is Brown's peak?
 

ferball

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Brown constantly exceeds my expectations - first could he kick a bag of 5? Check. Bag of 8? Check. Bag of 10? Check. I remember this guy running laps in the summer heat when no other North players were anywhere near Arden St around Christmas time. He loves footy and is constantly improving. What do you think is Brown's peak?
Dunno what his peak is but i expect he'll kick 80+ goals in the next 2 or 3 years. Maybe significantly more.
 

marklovesbeer

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That was a fun f***ing night.
Made all the more sweet by watching it with the over confident Port supporting father & brother in laws.

Edit: the two ex Port lads played great games as well. Shame BJ wasn’t out there too.
 

TennisPlayerAndy

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That was a fun f***ing night.
Made all the more sweet by watching it with the over confident Port supporting father & brother in laws.

Edit: the two ex Port lads played great games as well. Shame BJ wasn’t out there too.
The excitement in the air anytime he went near the footy was palpable.
 

Mr north man

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For Brown to even be considered for a AA berth in the team in 2020
Will need to start the season well and be consistent for the whole year will need to kick 75 to 80 goals to even be considered .
If he kicks even more will put near the finals.
 

Snake_Baker

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For Brown to even be considered for a AA berth in the team in 2020
Will need to start the season well and be consistent for the whole year will need to kick 75 to 80 goals to even be considered .
If he kicks even more will put near the finals.

Brad Scott cost him the Coleman.

Those early over possession matches completely neutured Brown's chances.
 

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