Prediction 7 premiers for the 20's

[Pessimistic]

Process of elimination

Melbourne - don’t win flags

Collingwood - don’t win flags, twice in the last 60 years

St Kilda - don’t win flags

Bulldogs - don’t win flags, 2016 was a fluke

Freo - don’t win flags

North - don’t win flags, they bought their two in the 70s with a short-lived bizarre rule and had a freak in Carey in the 90s.

Carlton - haven’t had their s**t together since the game went professional and aren’t about to change

Essendon - I’d love it to be different but we’re probably in Carlton’s category

Gold Coast - GC sporting curse won’t be broken

Adelaide - weird, culty, nutty culture coming out of that joint... that takes years to fix

Port - Kochie is an Eddie figure who won’t quit when he should and makes every decision with his own personal glory first, and the club second

So the seven premiers will be...

West Coast
Brisbane
Sydney
GWS
Hawthorn
Geelong
Richmond

Multiples for West Coast, they’re always good... and GWS, the AFL will keep it up til it happens.

‘I reckon a generation in AFL is seven years so any team could do it. Really sticking our neck out would be to pick. Premier from your first list, and the team which won’t actually do it from the second

I’m going st kilda and sydney

 

[Pessimistic]

This seems to be the antithesis to the ‘can hawthorn be successful while avoiding the elite end of the draft’ thread

the vibe in here is ‘Hell yeah’

but I suppose it is a decade and the hawks could turn around and go heavily in the draft, so both would be right

 

[Billy ray]

Richmond
Brisbane
Brisbane
Gold Coast
Gold Coast
Carlton
Gold Coast
Carlton
Hawthorn
Fremantle

 

[Soapy V]

Hard to pick 7 when Carlton will win at least 5

 

[Pessimistic]

In the 90’s 7 teams won a premiership – Collingwood, Hawthorn, West Coast, Essendon, Carlton, North and Adelaide.

In the 00’s 7 teams won a premiership – Essendon, Brisbane, Port, Sydney, West Coast, Geelong and Hawthorn.

In the 10’s 7 teams won a premiership – Collingwood, Geelong, Sydney, Hawthorn, Bulldogs, Richmond and West Coast.

Assuming this trend is to continue for the 20’s who are your predicted 7 premiers for the decade?

And who of the 7 will win multiples (either - 3 win 2 -- 1 wins 3 & 1 wins 2 -- 1 wins 4).

From the patterns, four from the previous decade will win again, three will drop out replaced by one from two decades ago, and ten completely new from the last two decades

Collingwood, Geelong, Sydney, Hawthorn, Bulldogs, Richmond and West Coast

Essendon, Brisbane, Port, Sydney, West Coast, Geelong and Hawthorn.

Fremantle, Gold Coast, GWS Giants, Melbourne, St Kilda


*If you won last decade, you have a better than even chance of repeating this coming decade
Otherwise your chances are 3/8*

 

[Pessimistic]

I know Hawthorn won't win one because they can't succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft.

even we cant ignore it for ten years

 

[SunshineBoy]

Yeah amazingly you have to go back to the 50's to find a decade where Hawthorn didn't win at least one flag - but I am not convinced you can win a flag with such a trade heavy approach.

Agree with Brisbane - they are one of my multiple flag winners along with the Bulldogs and Gold Coast.
It feels like the AFL will not rest until Gold Coast is stable and I think it will take a flag to make it so.

What about the 40s , 30s , 20 s

 

[Freomaniac]

From the patterns, four from the previous decade will win again, three will drop out replaced by one from two decades ago, and ten completely new from the last two decades

Collingwood, Geelong, Sydney, Hawthorn, Bulldogs, Richmond and West Coast

Essendon, Brisbane, Port, Sydney, West Coast, Geelong and Hawthorn.

Fremantle, Gold Coast, GWS Giants, Melbourne, St Kilda


*If you won last decade, you have a better than even chance of repeating this coming decade
Otherwise your chances are 3/8*

So frematle and St Kilda and Gold coast all possibly winning a flag from 2020-29?

 

[Kappa]

Outside of this year and next year you may as well just randomly toss at a dart board, you'll have just as likely a chance to get it right. Dumb thread.

 

[AjsGuns]

2020: West Coast Eagles
2021: GWS
2022: Western Bulldogs
2023: Western Bulldogs
2024: GWS
2025: Brisbane Lions
2026: Carlton
2027: Gold Coast
2028: Hawthorn
2029: Gold Coast

pretty much a crapshoot, reckon an interstate team win in 2020 (West Coast or god forbid the GWS scum)

 

[Pessimistic]

So frematle and St Kilda and Gold coast all possibly winning a flag from 2020-29?

imo. Id say in order of likely

GWS
st kilda fremantle
melbourne gold coast

 

[Joao]

Outside of this year and next year you may as well just randomly toss at a dart board, you'll have just as likely a chance to get it right. Dumb thread.

2021 is too far away to predict. I'd even say 2020 is given what happened in 16/17/18.

I mean, you can probably rule out 6 teams for 2020 but still reckon we could get surprised by a team nobody (except their own fans) takes seriously as a premiership threat (Port or Hawks for example).

 

[Capriati]

This current team of West coast are too up themselves a bit like Geelong thinking it will just happen I can't see them winning another Grand final for a very long time. I think Freo will win the next one from the west.

This is brilliant!


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Capriati]

I’m surprised WCE have received so many votes. They are the Collingwood of last off-season. Bring in Kelly (Beams) and everything will just fall into place. The fact is both sides are just not on Richmond’s level and they will need a lot more than one overrated midfielder to catch the benchmark of the comp.

The other surprising one was Carlton. Average youth that is currently being carried by their ageing brigade. I hope for their fans’ sake that they eventually deliver some success but in my view it still looks pretty grim.

North Melbourne are definitely one everyone got correct.

Western Bulldogs are one side that everyone is sleeping on. They are have constantly taken it up to Richmond and are a young side stacked with talent. Address their key position talent and they are bound to win one or two more, potentially three.

GWS rightfully received a lot of votes. No one is losing faith after they lost their first attempt at a premiership against a dynasty side. The fact is, no one would’ve beaten Richmond that day. They should not drop their heads. They have a very talented list.

If you knew anything about the eagle you shouldn't be that surprised. Since the AFL era began in 1990 we have one at least one premiership each decade.

West Coast is an extremely well run club. The Eagles are often written off by folks outside of WA. Who would have thought after winning the spoon in 2010 we would bounce back and make a PF in 2011? Or after conceding the first 5 goals we'd come back and with our 4th flag in 2018.

One thing they don't get enough credit for is the resilience of the club to persevere and bounce back from setbacks.

 

[M Malice]

Lions(4 flags), Eagles(1), Giants(1), Crows(1), Suns(1), Dockers(1), Swans(1).

 

[PumpyChowdown]

2020: Richmond
2021: West Coast Eagles
2022: Western Bulldogs
2023: Carlton
2024: Carlton
2025: Brisbane Lions
2026: Carlton
2027: Gold Coast
2028: Fremantle
2029: Essendon.....ahahahahahah! Only joking. Probably Tasmania.

 

[footyfan1978]

2020: Richmond
2021: West Coast Eagles
2022: Western Bulldogs
2023: Carlton
2024: Carlton
2025: Brisbane Lions
2026: Carlton
2027: Gold Coast
2028: Fremantle
2029: Essendon.....ahahahahahah! Only joking. Probably Tasmania.

Not bad but I want four premierships this decade.

 

[Pessimistic]

2021 is too far away to predict. I'd even say 2020 is given what happened in 16/17/18.

I mean, you can probably rule out 6 teams for 2020 but still reckon we could get surprised by a team nobody (except their own fans) takes seriously as a premiership threat (Port or Hawks for example).

If someone is saying in feb their team "might just make the 8' they probably wont

 

[Pessimistic]

Just noticed "No one would have beaten Richmond that day"

I'd guess not many teams would have gone worse than the giants did. Even Port scored more

 

[Lsta062]

If you knew anything about the eagle you shouldn't be that surprised. Since the AFL era began in 1990 we have one at least one premiership each decade.

West Coast is an extremely well run club. The Eagles are often written off by folks outside of WA. Who would have thought after winning the spoon in 2010 we would bounce back and make a PF in 2011? Or after conceding the first 5 goals we'd come back and with our 4th flag in 2018.

One thing they don't get enough credit for is the resilience of the club to persevere and bounce back from setbacks.

Eagles can be very enigmatic like that. Many (including me) thought it was the end of West Coast in 2018 pre-season and then they win the Premiership. That Round 2 game when they hammered Bulldogs is probably when I thought that they could be a threat in 2018 and it just escalated from there.

The only thing is that they can suddenly crash as well. Don’t think 2020 is one of those years, but they are harder to pick than many other sides apart from the fact that they are regularly competitive and often taste success.

 

[Gorringe Can Suck One]

agree, they can’t keep players no one wants to be there and can’t see that changing regardless of who coach ect ect is. I think it’s the culture of the Gold Coast as a whole that ruins it for footballers, living there is completely different to the holiday

Fair go mate,
Just compare our 2019 trade period compared to 2017/2018 before the cleanout had concluded
Players Lost 2017:Matera, Ablett, Saad
Players Lost 2018: Lynch, May, Hall, Kojodjashnij
Now compare that to only Martin and Ah Chee (Who couldn't even get a game in our 22) in 2019. Times are certainly changing and there is a belief among the club and the supporters. If we can manage our retention of young talent, surely a flag is in the not too distant future

 

[dustysnecktattoo]

Fair go mate,
Just compare our 2019 trade period compared to 2017/2018 before the cleanout had concluded
Players Lost 2017:Matera, Ablett, Saad
Players Lost 2018: Lynch, May, Hall, Kojodjashnij
Now compare that to only Martin and Ah Chee (Who couldn't even get a game in our 22) in 2019. Times are certainly changing and there is a belief among the club and the supporters. If we can manage our retention of young talent, surely a flag is in the not too distant future

and a sincere good luck with that

 

[Capriati]

agree, they can’t keep players no one wants to be there and can’t see that changing regardless of who coach ect ect is. I think it’s the culture of the Gold Coast as a whole that ruins it for footballers, living there is completely different to the holiday

They just resigned King and Lukoscious. I think they may have turned a corner in terms of their retention.

If so, where are you going to get your premiership players from now?

 

[footyfan1978]

They just resigned King and Lukoscious. I think they may have turned a corner in terms of their retention.

If so, where are you going to get your premiership players from now?

Same place they got them from 1981 to 2016....

 

[A Bit Dusty]

They just resigned King and Lukoscious. I think they may have turned a corner in terms of their retention.

If so, where are you going to get your premiership players from now?

The Tigers are a destination club now not like a few years ago. There are plenty of players in interstate teams that want to come home and also play in front of big crowds. We have plenty of salary cap space and I'm sure deals are already well in motion for the end of the season.