Brick Loosener
1980 2017 2019 2020
A meat tray if they buy enough raffle tickets.
Prediction 7 premiers for the 20's
- Thread starter TBOW
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A meat tray if they buy enough raffle tickets.
How many clubs have won a flag from Seventh on the ladder in the AFL era since 1990, only one and it
was not Richmond, that could suggest a fluke or anomaly, but I prefer an iron man effort with the
incredible support of the umpiring fraternity. I have boarded the Tiger train and simply acknowledge
their dominance and greatness.
Mate, you beat the Eagles in Perth because you were too good.
- Thread starter
- #129
No one flukes a premiership - it isn't speed skating...
You know in that game the Eagles had one goal assist for the entire game and we held a very high defensive
line which saw Jack Darling dropping marks on the wing instead of in the goal square, thank god for Dom
Sheed's kick in 2018 it removed the focus from Jack Darling and yet another costly fumble in the goal
square late that could have cost you the game. We were a better side in 2016 than our ladder finish
suggested, but luck was on our side thankfully.
Iron man effort with the incredible support of the umpiring fraternity were my words and it was short track
speed skating.
You can pick & chose to knock, I sat thru Swans/Eagles GFs 2005/6 ... when I see a photo of that great mark by Leo Barry I see Ash Sampi hogtied by Tahdg Kennelly, bad luck. The Swans were worthy winners.
In a one point game there are no worthy winners just moments of regret that burn your soul for all of eternity.
Imagine if Quatermain instead of yelling "Leo Barry you star" had yelled "Sampi is clearly being held out of the
marking contest that's a disgrace" we would of missed one of the great moments of AFL history.
Senor M
SFAEW World Heavyweight Champion
2016 was such a strange season in that there was such a gap between the ‘Top 7’ & the rest of the competition.
In 2016 the Bulldogs were 15-7 during the H&A season; Richmond were 15-7 in 2017 & 16-6 in 2019.
So IMO The Bulldogs feat in ‘16 was incredibly impressive having to “run the gauntlet” in a year where there was so many genuine contenders
- Thread starter
- #135
With the votes all but drying up on this thing time for a quick analysis of the results.
At the time of writing this the three teams most favored to take out a flag in the next decade - all with almost 200 votes or 2/3 of the respondents are West Coast, Richmond and GWS. Interestingly they are 3 of the 4 favorites for this years flag and appear to have been selected based on a high likelihood of taking out a flag in the next couple of years.
Brisbane who are a close fourth on 184 votes and the Bulldogs who are significantly further back in 5th on 143 votes could both be seen as teams with a solid performance in 2019 but more importantly young and talented lists who could make a sustained push for a flag in the short to medium term (next 5-6 years).
Collingwood in 6th place on 124 votes are in much the same position as the first 3 teams with a good chance at a premiership in the short term based on a recent period of contention, but they are clearly seen as a lesser chance than the first 3 teams considering the gap in votes.
Hawthorn in 7th place on just under 100 votes could be seen as the only team (barring to some extent West Coast and possibly Collingwood) who have been voted in based on their historic ability to win flags and the strength of their organisation. Based purely on statistical evidence over the last 30 years they seem a safe bet.
So they are the 7 teams considered most likely to win a premiership in the next decade. This will not however, accurately reflect the predictions of individuals as to who will win premierships across the span of the decade as there will be more consensus on the impending premiers than there will be on the later ones which will skew the results.
Outside the 7 Carlton was the next favourite on 91 votes - most likely due to a young and talented list, followed by Sydney and Fremantle on 59 votes.
Interestingly Geelong who have contested 14 of the last 16 final series and won 3 premierships in that time are given as much of a chance of winning a flag as recent stugglers Melbourne and Gold Coast, with all teams around 40 votes.
The two South Australian teams who appear to be in the process of regenerating their lists as well as historically under-resourced St.Kilda and North Melbourne all sit between 20 - 30 votes.
Despite being a financial powerhouse, Essendon is seen as the least likely of the current clubs to win a flag in the next 10 years with 13 votes. This could be due to list deficiencies and the ageing of important players, or simply an impression of poor governance which has clung to the club since the doping scandal.
The only team that is seen as less likely to win a flag than Essendon is a team does not exist, be that the oft spoken about Tasmania or another.
At the time of writing this the three teams most favored to take out a flag in the next decade - all with almost 200 votes or 2/3 of the respondents are West Coast, Richmond and GWS. Interestingly they are 3 of the 4 favorites for this years flag and appear to have been selected based on a high likelihood of taking out a flag in the next couple of years.
Brisbane who are a close fourth on 184 votes and the Bulldogs who are significantly further back in 5th on 143 votes could both be seen as teams with a solid performance in 2019 but more importantly young and talented lists who could make a sustained push for a flag in the short to medium term (next 5-6 years).
Collingwood in 6th place on 124 votes are in much the same position as the first 3 teams with a good chance at a premiership in the short term based on a recent period of contention, but they are clearly seen as a lesser chance than the first 3 teams considering the gap in votes.
Hawthorn in 7th place on just under 100 votes could be seen as the only team (barring to some extent West Coast and possibly Collingwood) who have been voted in based on their historic ability to win flags and the strength of their organisation. Based purely on statistical evidence over the last 30 years they seem a safe bet.
So they are the 7 teams considered most likely to win a premiership in the next decade. This will not however, accurately reflect the predictions of individuals as to who will win premierships across the span of the decade as there will be more consensus on the impending premiers than there will be on the later ones which will skew the results.
Outside the 7 Carlton was the next favourite on 91 votes - most likely due to a young and talented list, followed by Sydney and Fremantle on 59 votes.
Interestingly Geelong who have contested 14 of the last 16 final series and won 3 premierships in that time are given as much of a chance of winning a flag as recent stugglers Melbourne and Gold Coast, with all teams around 40 votes.
The two South Australian teams who appear to be in the process of regenerating their lists as well as historically under-resourced St.Kilda and North Melbourne all sit between 20 - 30 votes.
Despite being a financial powerhouse, Essendon is seen as the least likely of the current clubs to win a flag in the next 10 years with 13 votes. This could be due to list deficiencies and the ageing of important players, or simply an impression of poor governance which has clung to the club since the doping scandal.
The only team that is seen as less likely to win a flag than Essendon is a team does not exist, be that the oft spoken about Tasmania or another.
head to head the doggies were better for the year. And swans actually played the MCG MORE times that year
You've forgotten one thing about the history, it says that the Pies have to contend multiple GF's to secure one. Given that, it is unlikely the Pies will win one. Going purely on history Essendon and Carlton have as much say as the Pies even with much less votes.
My assumption is that the ONLY reason the Pies have 100+ votes is they're currently contending. If you look at the other teams they literally have to win it this year or the next. Sure they've got a good core of players who'll play for the next 5 to 10 years but then you look at other clubs and it's not so rosy.
I'm not so certain the Pies will be at the pointy end for the next decade, that remains to be seen, still my pessimism is fair speculation.
- Jun 14, 2015
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You are so head-****ed about West Coast, it's unbelievable.
It's not their fault your "dynasty side" shat the bed in 2018.
- Apr 12, 2012
- 46,172
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- GWS
Still a home city GF finishing below the interstate opposition.
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And some of the swans biggest crowds have been in victoria. doesnt stop them banging on about the 'bloods' when it suits.
Its like 2015. Hawks beat Eagles 2 of 3 meetings that year, 2 games being in WA
Hawks still unbeaten at optus stadium too
- Oct 16, 2016
- 8,649
- 17,072
- AFL Club
- Carlton
Saltyyyyyyy
- Oct 16, 2016
- 8,649
- 17,072
- AFL Club
- Carlton
Who do you support? Hard to decipher....
- Oct 16, 2016
- 8,649
- 17,072
- AFL Club
- Carlton
You just penned in your team for 3 premier ships in 10 years...I wouldnt be throwing around the biased tag
- Apr 12, 2012
- 46,172
- 41,969
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- GWS
My point is it would have made no difference
Chaisa
Brownlow Medallist
- Jun 2, 2013
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This is the mother of all crapshoots but I'll bite:
I think Richmond still have at least another flag in them, whereas the Lions and the Bulldogs look the two most likely to succeed over the next few years. Giants will probably pinch one eventually, the way Carlton are building seems very Hawthorn/Richmond-esque, Hawks history is too good to ignore (though it might not be until the end of the decade), and I'll plump for Sydney for the last slot as I'm biased and we seem to be building something really nice.
I think Richmond still have at least another flag in them, whereas the Lions and the Bulldogs look the two most likely to succeed over the next few years. Giants will probably pinch one eventually, the way Carlton are building seems very Hawthorn/Richmond-esque, Hawks history is too good to ignore (though it might not be until the end of the decade), and I'll plump for Sydney for the last slot as I'm biased and we seem to be building something really nice.
Process of elimination
Melbourne - don’t win flags
Collingwood - don’t win flags, twice in the last 60 years
St Kilda - don’t win flags
Bulldogs - don’t win flags, 2016 was a fluke
Freo - don’t win flags
North - don’t win flags, they bought their two in the 70s with a short-lived bizarre rule and had a freak in Carey in the 90s.
Carlton - haven’t had their s**t together since the game went professional and aren’t about to change
Essendon - I’d love it to be different but we’re probably in Carlton’s category
Gold Coast - GC sporting curse won’t be broken
Adelaide - weird, culty, nutty culture coming out of that joint... that takes years to fix
Port - Kochie is an Eddie figure who won’t quit when he should and makes every decision with his own personal glory first, and the club second
So the seven premiers will be...
West Coast
Brisbane
Sydney
GWS
Hawthorn
Geelong
Richmond
Multiples for West Coast, they’re always good... and GWS, the AFL will keep it up til it happens.
Melbourne - don’t win flags
Collingwood - don’t win flags, twice in the last 60 years
St Kilda - don’t win flags
Bulldogs - don’t win flags, 2016 was a fluke
Freo - don’t win flags
North - don’t win flags, they bought their two in the 70s with a short-lived bizarre rule and had a freak in Carey in the 90s.
Carlton - haven’t had their s**t together since the game went professional and aren’t about to change
Essendon - I’d love it to be different but we’re probably in Carlton’s category
Gold Coast - GC sporting curse won’t be broken
Adelaide - weird, culty, nutty culture coming out of that joint... that takes years to fix
Port - Kochie is an Eddie figure who won’t quit when he should and makes every decision with his own personal glory first, and the club second
So the seven premiers will be...
West Coast
Brisbane
Sydney
GWS
Hawthorn
Geelong
Richmond
Multiples for West Coast, they’re always good... and GWS, the AFL will keep it up til it happens.
- May 16, 2013
- 5,172
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- North Melbourne
GWS, Richmond, Bulldogs are the three I'm confident will be up there contending for much of the decade, so picked all of them. Also added Hawthorn, WCE and Sydney just because they all tend to be around the mark. No idea who to pick last so went North, fingers crossed.
AndrewShawble
Premiership Player
- Sep 10, 2019
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Not sure who will win them, but if we don't see one from Carlton with where this list is positioned, that might break the back.
BoundbyKreuze
Cancelled
- Feb 9, 2020
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That might be the reason behind the 5600 days.
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