2017 drafts analysis starts at post 44.
2018 start at post 61.
Inspired by GHS33 and a hope that my club would pick up Sam Petrevski-Seton, I decided to place as many Phantom drafts as I could find on a spreadsheet for analysis. I am looking forward to seeing who picks the draft most accurately from the furthest out. Of course, we will only have a true idea of who was most accurate when the players prove themselves over their career. Also, the Phantom drafts, Mock drafts and Ratings have different purposes: they can be an indication of who the poster rates, which players the clubs should prefer and where the players are likely to go in the draft. Nevertheless I looked for as many as I could find.
I have found 51 phantom drafts and rankings so far. 12 come from outside the BigFooty site. They range from top two rounds to complete attempts. I didn't include posters who only made first round predictions, as I don't think it would help the statistics. I haven't included Rookie draft phantoms, and I've included lists that aren't really phantoms if they have a numbering system.
I think grundog49's list of players to watch that came out at Christmas, and Knightmare's mammoth efforts have been very influential, but I couldn't find a complete ranking from those posters from the beginning of the year.
Overall 147 players have been selected in the 51 drafts.
13 players have been listed in each of the 51 drafts:
They are (order, average draft pick):
McCluggage (1st,1.6)
McGrath (2nd,2.5)
Ainsworth (3rd,4.7)
Bowes (4th,4.8)
Petrevski-Seton (5th,6.3)
Brodie (6th,6.3)
Setterfield (7th,7.5)
Taranto (8th,7.5)
Scrimshaw (9th,10.1)
English (10th,11.1)
Marshall (15th,15.8)
Berry (16th,16.4)
Battle (22nd,23.8)
Logue(11th,13.6), Perryman (12th,13.7), Florent (13th,15.4), (Venables (14th,15.4), Simpkin (17th, 16.9),Haywood (18th, 20.8), Powell-Pepper (19th, 20.9), Witherden (20th,21.7) and Gallucci (21st, 22.0) also featured in the top players, but were not selected in all 36 drafts.
28 players were mentioned only once in the phantom drafts. It will be interesting to see who, if any, of these dark horses get drafted.
6 of these players were mentioned in The BigFooty trial run in August, while the West Coast Eagles board draft mentioned 5, Quigley's Draft Ratings mentioned 4, the Carlton board Phantom Draft #2 mentioned 3, AFL DraftCentral, Snoop Dog and Chris25 (in his October Phantom Draft) mentioned 2, but no other draft had more than one.
Of the players mentioned six or more times, Reece Piper, Liam Ryan, Rowan Marshall, Jake Pitman and Max Lynch had the most variation in draft predictions.
Jacob Allison, Brandon Parfitt and Alex Villis (for obvious reason) seemed to be the biggest sliders over the course of the season, while Josh Rotham, Quinton Narkle and Joseph Atley also slid.
Taranto, Venables, Florent and Esava Ratugolea (obviously not as high as the first three) were the bolters over the course of the phantom drafts.
I know, what a waste of time. But I enjoyed doing it, so no. And over the last few years, I've been less impressed with the Journos who give really accurate top 30s a day or two before the actual draft, than with the posters on this board who give early insights to a player's prospects. The earlier the phantom, the more we get to learn about the young players, I reckon. The other issue is that when posters tinker with their drafts in the last few days based on rumours, inside knowledge or feedback, we usually lose their earlier opinions.
It's only a few days to the draft now. If anyone can help me with the best spreadsheet function to compare the phantom draft numbers with real draft picks, I'd be grateful. I've only put draft numbers for each player, so don't have recorded which clubs players are predicted to go to. With trading of picks and movement of picks because of academy bids, I thought that would be too hard. Even so, I'd like a good system to recognise drafts where the correct draft picks are predicted, or where there is a near miss.
2018 start at post 61.
Inspired by GHS33 and a hope that my club would pick up Sam Petrevski-Seton, I decided to place as many Phantom drafts as I could find on a spreadsheet for analysis. I am looking forward to seeing who picks the draft most accurately from the furthest out. Of course, we will only have a true idea of who was most accurate when the players prove themselves over their career. Also, the Phantom drafts, Mock drafts and Ratings have different purposes: they can be an indication of who the poster rates, which players the clubs should prefer and where the players are likely to go in the draft. Nevertheless I looked for as many as I could find.
I have found 51 phantom drafts and rankings so far. 12 come from outside the BigFooty site. They range from top two rounds to complete attempts. I didn't include posters who only made first round predictions, as I don't think it would help the statistics. I haven't included Rookie draft phantoms, and I've included lists that aren't really phantoms if they have a numbering system.
I think grundog49's list of players to watch that came out at Christmas, and Knightmare's mammoth efforts have been very influential, but I couldn't find a complete ranking from those posters from the beginning of the year.
Overall 147 players have been selected in the 51 drafts.
13 players have been listed in each of the 51 drafts:
They are (order, average draft pick):
McCluggage (1st,1.6)
McGrath (2nd,2.5)
Ainsworth (3rd,4.7)
Bowes (4th,4.8)
Petrevski-Seton (5th,6.3)
Brodie (6th,6.3)
Setterfield (7th,7.5)
Taranto (8th,7.5)
Scrimshaw (9th,10.1)
English (10th,11.1)
Marshall (15th,15.8)
Berry (16th,16.4)
Battle (22nd,23.8)
Logue(11th,13.6), Perryman (12th,13.7), Florent (13th,15.4), (Venables (14th,15.4), Simpkin (17th, 16.9),Haywood (18th, 20.8), Powell-Pepper (19th, 20.9), Witherden (20th,21.7) and Gallucci (21st, 22.0) also featured in the top players, but were not selected in all 36 drafts.
28 players were mentioned only once in the phantom drafts. It will be interesting to see who, if any, of these dark horses get drafted.
6 of these players were mentioned in The BigFooty trial run in August, while the West Coast Eagles board draft mentioned 5, Quigley's Draft Ratings mentioned 4, the Carlton board Phantom Draft #2 mentioned 3, AFL DraftCentral, Snoop Dog and Chris25 (in his October Phantom Draft) mentioned 2, but no other draft had more than one.
Of the players mentioned six or more times, Reece Piper, Liam Ryan, Rowan Marshall, Jake Pitman and Max Lynch had the most variation in draft predictions.
Jacob Allison, Brandon Parfitt and Alex Villis (for obvious reason) seemed to be the biggest sliders over the course of the season, while Josh Rotham, Quinton Narkle and Joseph Atley also slid.
Taranto, Venables, Florent and Esava Ratugolea (obviously not as high as the first three) were the bolters over the course of the phantom drafts.
I know, what a waste of time. But I enjoyed doing it, so no. And over the last few years, I've been less impressed with the Journos who give really accurate top 30s a day or two before the actual draft, than with the posters on this board who give early insights to a player's prospects. The earlier the phantom, the more we get to learn about the young players, I reckon. The other issue is that when posters tinker with their drafts in the last few days based on rumours, inside knowledge or feedback, we usually lose their earlier opinions.
It's only a few days to the draft now. If anyone can help me with the best spreadsheet function to compare the phantom draft numbers with real draft picks, I'd be grateful. I've only put draft numbers for each player, so don't have recorded which clubs players are predicted to go to. With trading of picks and movement of picks because of academy bids, I thought that would be too hard. Even so, I'd like a good system to recognise drafts where the correct draft picks are predicted, or where there is a near miss.
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