Player Watch - #8 James Rowbottom - pick 25, welcome to Sydney | Page 4 | BigFooty

Player Watch #8 James Rowbottom - pick 25, welcome to Sydney

Discussion in 'Sydney' started by scaryness, Nov 23, 2018.

  1. McRobie

    McRobie Norm Smith Medallist

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    We’ve picked 3 mids that could all conceivably be genuine busts. Concerning. Hope we haven’t got too funky for our own good. I don’t buy into the chat that “we’re taking best available”.
     
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  2. BloodySwan

    BloodySwan Premiership Player

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    I'm not sure if the Nut Bush counts as line dancing
     
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  3. scaryness

    scaryness Moderator

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    Rowbottom won't be a bust. He will be a handy player, a serviceable inside mid at worst. McInerney is the one with major bust potential imo.
     
  4. RUNVS

    RUNVS Hall of Famer

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    The three big dances I remember were The Macarena, Cotton Eyed Joe and some Spice Girls song.
     
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  5. RUNVS

    RUNVS Hall of Famer

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    I hope the fitness staff can prevent him from getting a bust at all.
     
  6. swansfan51

    swansfan51 Moderator

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    Statistically there's about a 65% chance he will be a bust.

    For example here are the last 2 decades worth of pick 25s (and if anyone wants to yell "small sample size" I have a lot more in the tank)

    Aaron Henneman - 58 games
    Brett Johnson - 70 games
    Mark Coughlan - 92 games including B&F (injury riddled)
    Steven Armstrong - 79 games
    Callum Urch - 8 games
    Harry Miller - 18 games
    Adam Hartlett - 11 games
    Wayde Mills - 16 games
    Nathan Djerrkura - 25 games
    Tom Collier - 27 games
    Jack Redden - 188 games
    Aaron Black - 57 games
    Patrick Karnezis - 25 games
    Seb Ross - 102 games including B&F
    Spencer White - 2 games
    Daniel McStay - 79 games
    Dan Nielson - 7 games
    Josh Dunkley - 43 games
    Ben Long - 14 games
    Noah Balta - 0 games
     
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  7. sataris

    sataris Perfect Marshmellow

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    What dyou clarify a 'bust' as ?

    less than 50 games?
     
  8. Tesla Tenet

    Tesla Tenet All Australian

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    It is in the same range as Deano. Much younger and better at the beginning. Who knows.



    Sent from my SM-T805Y using Tapatalk
     
  9. LukeParkerno1

    LukeParkerno1 Premium Platinum

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    At least we’ve tried to address our number 1 weakness- our midfield
     
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  10. zyzzbruh

    zyzzbruh All Australian

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    I’ll guarantee our no 1 choice moving up our pick was Ian hill followed by rowbottom. Hill is going to be a jet and tear us a new one everytime we play gws in a couple years time. Was shattered when gws read his name out.
     
  11. Ed_Gein

    Ed_Gein You are nex !

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    How did you measure the 65%?

    Not sure why previous players taken at pick 25 is relevant to anything to be honest, though.
     

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  12. swansfan51

    swansfan51 Moderator

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    I base my numbers on about 10 years history of players taken in similar brackets. I used to use a 4 pick bracket (here pick 25-28) however now I use an 8 pick bracket (21-28)

    For example, about 52% of players taken in the 25-28 bracket fail to play 25 games at AFL level
     
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  13. Ed_Gein

    Ed_Gein You are nex !

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    Fair enough. But like I mentioned on the second page and caesar88 expanded on during the third page is that he'll get games, significantly more than 25 in my opinion. I guess, yeah he could still be a bust but our midfield is crying out for a player like him and he'll be given a lot of opportunities in our side to prove himself. Don't see him rotting in the NEAFL before being delisted in 3-4 years.
     
  14. caesar88

    caesar88 Norm Smith Medallist

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    They could be busts hey? As opposed to all other draftees....???
     
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  15. caesar88

    caesar88 Norm Smith Medallist

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    Which is to be expected as the further down the draft you go the less chances you have of making it. But who cares about what has happened with the rest of the competition. That 52% has probably been boosted by a lot of players drafted to cellar dweller clubs like Carlton, Richmond, Melbourne, St Kilda, Fremantle and Brisbane, where the majority of players taken in ANY range have probably been busts. We and a few other clubs prove the theory wrong because we’ve been able to take low draft picks and turn them into stars.
     
  16. mikey_san

    mikey_san Club Legend

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    Probably right w Horse in charge but; you did see KJ's play last year, right? There's a spot up for grabs and he looks the type to at least be thereabouts.
    Papley just turned up on a mission (not mids) hope this kid does too.
     
  17. tombomb

    tombomb Club Legend

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    In his highlights package, the clip at the end of him roving the centre bounce, breaking out of the stoppage, and kicking a 40m drop punt onto a leading players chest ... I can’t remember the last time I saw a swans player do that.
     
  18. caesar88

    caesar88 Norm Smith Medallist

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    Ssshhh go with the theory that our draftees are injury prone and have crap skills or there will be nothing to complain about!
     
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  19. Nool Carpenna

    Nool Carpenna Team Captain

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    Some lovely kicks to advantage too... our whole team combined wouldn’t have done that last year.
     
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  20. tombomb

    tombomb Club Legend

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    In the final I remember thinking I couldn’t remember one example of someone hitting a target that wasn’t a sideways kick in the D50
     
  21. Superstar swan

    Superstar swan Brownlow Medallist

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    I was very impressed with rowbottoms highlights...looks to be a very tenacious and aggressive player. Those traits alone will see him play senior footy this year
     
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  22. caesar88

    caesar88 Norm Smith Medallist

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    His charge through the pack at about 2.10 in his highlights video on the Swans site is so impressive. Hard at it yet still a smooth operator as well. Really hope he can have a solid first pre-season and get a crack in the JLT as his type is exactly what we need.
     
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  23. Superstar swan

    Superstar swan Brownlow Medallist

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    Reminds me of parker
     
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  24. MarkP

    MarkP That guy

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    I recall Mitchell doing that.

    Ok ok ok.....I will show myself out now :p
     
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  25. LukeParkerno1

    LukeParkerno1 Premium Platinum

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    With better footskills, I like the fact he kicks the ball to advantage.
     
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