Past #9: Andrew Swallow - 224 NM games - 3x Syds - captain '12-'16 - #43 '05 ND - thanks Spitta

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I'm struggling to understand your obsession with this point.

We have the cap space and it's not like the money is actually coming out of the club's own coffers. Seems a strange thing to play hard ball over.

Us paying his salary would purely be to make it easier for Andrew to get there out of respect. It's not going to magically net us a pick in the 20s.

It gives GC an experienced head for free in terms of dollar and cap space. Of course that's a selling point.
 
Why would we be required to go in to surplus with our 1st pick?

I think it is deficit, not surplus.

any points used from the next year would be deducted with the first pick to absorb most if not all, I am sure I have read that somewhere, do you think it comes from the last points we get? I could be wrong but I am pretty sure that is how I read it.

It makes sense if you match points in the same year, the league doesn't take points from the last pick you have but from your next live pick.

Do you think it is different?
 

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I think it is deficit, not surplus.

any points used from the next year would be deducted with the first pick to absorb most if not all, I am sure I have read that somewhere, do you think it comes from the last points we get? I could be wrong but I am pretty sure that is how I read it.

It makes sense if you match points in the same year, the league doesn't take points from the last pick you have but from your next live pick.

Do you think it is different?

Deficit, apologies.

I cannot state that I am 100% certain. Off to the search engine we go!
 
I'm struggling to understand your obsession with this point.

We have the cap space and it's not like the money is actually coming out of the club's own coffers. Seems a strange thing to play hard ball over.

Us paying his salary would purely be to make it easier for Andrew to get there out of respect. It's not going to magically net us a pick in the 20s.

Thewlis, it is the only chip we have mate, we should be playing to our strength and with us missing on Dusty and JK this is our strength, we can buy picks with salary cap relief for other clubs, I really don't understand why you would not want our club taking some (very minor) advantage of where we are at.
 
........the introduction of the ability to trade future draft picks has seen the AFL look more closely at its points-based bidding system for father-son and academy players and iron out some anomalies.

It has led to the AFL setting a points deficit limit for clubs bidding on father-son and academy players.

The limit will be set at 1723 points, which is the equivalent of the group of picks that will be assigned to the premiership team each year: selections No.18, 36, 54 and 72.

If a team trades future draft picks in or out, their deficit limit will be altered according to how many selections they hold.

For instance, if a team acquires an extra first-round pick for the following year they have a deficit limit of 2708 points (the standard 1723 plus 985 points, the value for pick No.18).

Conversely if a club trades out its future second-round pick, it will have a deficit limit of 1221 points (1723 minus 502 points, the value for pick No.36).

The move guarantees academy clubs will pay back their deficit in one year and cannot access future picks two years down the line compared to every other club's access to just one draft into the future.

It also ensures clubs will not be allowed to take their points debt into the following year's draft on a consistent basis, which could have seen them be in a never-ending cycle of owing points for highly-rated players.

AFL.com.au reported last week about the other major change to the bidding system, which saw the AFL decide that clubs matching late bids for academy or father-son picks would not risk pushing back their first selection the next year if they owed points.

Instead, they will be able to pay back the remaining points in the same round that the bid came.

The AFL confirmed this week the 2015 NAB AFL Draft will be staged in Adelaide on November 24, and it is confident the app it is building with Champion Data to simplify the bidding system will be ready for draft night.

It is exploring ways to further liven up the night, with the possibility of a new format for the calling of each selection.


http://www.melbournefc.com.au/news/2015-08-12/afl-closes-draft-bidding-system-loophole
 
Okay.

If a club chooses to go in to deficit points for F/S's, then I can see no reason why they would be compelled to forfeit their 1st round pick, provided that deficit value of 1723 points did not encroach on the clubs highest pick. Deficits can be facilitated with 2nd, 3rd & 4th round picks whilst leaving a 1st round pick untouched.
 
A selling point that may get us a late pick or a third round upgrade, sure.

so in all respect to Andrew why would we offer to pay his salary for no return, he has been paid handsomely whilst at the club for 12 years and rightly so, I am all for helping him get to GC and play with his brother, but if we are footing the bill as well, crikey our generousity has to stop somewhere. Close to half a million dollars for the equivalent to pick 45 seems more than reasonable on our part.
 
so in all respect to Andrew why would we offer to pay his salary for no return, he has been paid handsomely whilst at the club for 12 years and rightly so, I am all for helping him get to GC and play with his brother, but if we are footing the bill as well, crikey our generousity has to stop somewhere. Close to half a million dollars for the equivalent to pick 45 seems more than reasonable on our part.


I doubt he'll end up going anywhere anyway.
 
Okay.

If a club chooses to go in to deficit points for F/S's, then I can see no reason why they would be compelled to forfeit their 1st round pick, provided that deficit value of 1723 points did not encroach on the clubs highest pick. Deficits can be facilitated with 2nd, 3rd & 4th round picks whilst leaving a 1st round pick untouched.

Thanks Snake

that reads differently to how I remember, but in a good way, I am a little confused by "Instead, they will be able to pay back the remaining points in the same round that the bid came." what does that mean?

so we take:
TT mid first round bid, matched with points from second and maybe third round
Blakey mid first round bid, matched with points from third, fourth and maybe fifth round
Scott late second round bid, matched with points from 2019 second round, is that what it means?
Crocker fifth round bid, matched with our last points, I assume our picks shuffle all over the place as well, which could increase the points value of later picks.
 
Thewlis, it is the only chip we have mate, we should be playing to our strength and with us missing on Dusty and JK this is our strength, we can buy picks with salary cap relief for other clubs, I really don't understand why you would not want our club taking some (very minor) advantage of where we are at.

I was just responding to your trade scenario where Gold Coast give up 22 spots in the draft purely on the basis that we're paying some of his salary, which is fanciful.

Paying some of his salary might be the difference between getting pick 76 and being able to upgrade 46 to 39. It's not going to get us anything significant.
 

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I was just responding to your trade scenario where Gold Coast give up 22 spots in the draft purely on the basis that we're paying some of his salary, which is fanciful.

Paying some of his salary might be the difference between getting pick 76 and being able to upgrade 46 to 39. It's not going to get us anything significant.

Your assumption that I was talking about some and not all is, probably why you got confused. so is Swallow plus $450k (give or take a little) worth the equivalent to pick 45?
 
Thanks Snake

that reads differently to how I remember, but in a good way, I am a little confused by "Instead, they will be able to pay back the remaining points in the same round that the bid came." what does that mean?

If a bid is made for a F/S with pick 24 and the club with the F/S has pick 28, they can utilise the latter pick to override the earlier pick, instead of having to use their earliest pick (10).

so we take:
TT mid first round bid, matched with points from second and maybe third round
Blakey mid first round bid, matched with points from third, fourth and maybe fifth round
Scott late second round bid, matched with points from 2019 second round, is that what it means?
Crocker fifth round bid, matched with our last points, I assume our picks shuffle all over the place as well, which could increase the points value of later picks.


This is how I understand how it works, but I have only cobbled this together from bits and pieces, so if anyone credible can correct me then please go ahead.

HYPOTHETICAL

A club finishes 17th and ends with picks 2, 20, 38 and 56. This club is also interested in F/S & academy players A, B, C and D.

The club that finishes 17th takes the 2nd best player in the draft, who is not one of players A, B, C or D

If another clubs bids pick 12 for player A, then the F/S & acad. club is entitled to match that pick with points tallied from it's remaining picks.

If another clubs bids pick 30 for player B, then the F/S & acad. club is entitled to match that pick with points tallied from it's remaining picks/points and up to 1723 points from the following years draft.

If another clubs bids pick 40 for player C, then the F/S & acad. club is entitled to match that pick with points tallied from it's remaining picks/points and up to 1723 points from the following years draft.

If another clubs bids pick 55 for player D, then the F/S & acad. club is entitled to match that pick with points tallied from it's remaining picks/points and up to 1723 points from the following years draft.

This goes on all the way up until 1723 points of the next seasons draft points have been exhausted.

If the club runs out of points, it must decline to take that F/S & acad. player.

It needs to be also taken in to account that players A,B,C & D also attract a 20% discount.
 
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If a bid is made for a F/S with pick 24 and the club with the F/S has pick 28, they can utilise the latter pick to override the earlier pick, instead of having to use their earliest pick (10).



F/S & academy nominations are in place before the draft commences, so clubs will already know where F/S & academy players are drafted.

This is how I understand how it works, but I have only cobbled this together from bits and pieces, so if anyone credible can correct me then please go ahead.

HYPOTHETICAL

A club finishes 17th and ends with picks 2, 20, 38 and 56. This club is also interested in F/S & academy players A, B, C and D.

The club that finishes 17th takes the 2nd best player in the draft, who is not one of players A, B, C or D

If another clubs bids pick 12 for player A, then the F/S & acad. club is entitled to match that pick with points tallied from it's remaining picks.

If another clubs bids pick 30 for player B, then the F/S & acad. club is entitled to match that pick with points tallied from it's remaining picks/points and up to 1723 points from the following years draft.

If another clubs bids pick 40 for player C, then the F/S & acad. club is entitled to match that pick with points tallied from it's remaining picks/points and up to 1723 points from the following years draft.

If another clubs bids pick 55 for player D, then the F/S & acad. club is entitled to match that pick with points tallied from it's remaining picks/points and up to 1723 points from the following years draft.

This goes on all the way up until 1723 points of the next seasons draft points have been exhausted.

If the club runs out of points, it must decline to take that F/S & acad. player.

It needs to be also taken in to account that players A,B,C & D also attract a 20% discount.

I thought the bidding and matching was done during the course of the trade, pretty sure some club had multiple bids on F/S and or Academy players with the same pick in the past, and how would clubs know in advance if they were going to bid on player x in round 3?

look how a boring trade period can have us talking about something that is 13 months away. ;)
 
EXAMPLE

North finish 17th in 2018 and Thomas, Blakey, Scott and Crocker all nominate North

4 bids are placed for Blakey, Thomas, Scott and Crocker with picks 7, 10, 27 and 55 respectively.

North have picks 2, 20, 38 & 56, but wants to match all of these bids.

North pick 2: Rankine

Picks 20, 38 & 56 = 1571 points + 1723 2019 points = 3294 points

Blakey pick 7 = 1644 points - 20% = 1315 points. Blakey is ours.

1979 points remain in the bank

Thomas pick 10 = 1395 points - 20% = 1116 points. Thomas is ours.

863 points remain in the bank

Scott pick 27 = 703 points - 20% = 562 points. Scott is ours.

301 points remain in the bank

Crocker pick 55 = 207 points - 20% = 166 points. Crocker is ours.

145 points remain in the bank

However, we have now seriously jeopardized our 2019 1st round pick as (1723 - 145 = 1578) 1578 now go in to deficit for that year.
 
it is the money and cap space, not Swallow that the pick movement is about.

So then they don't trade for him. Money/cap space problem solved.

Imagine if Ballenden didn't get bid on before pick 24 and they have just thrown away a good pick to add a player who probably isn't even best 22, purely for "leadership".
 
I thought the bidding and matching was done during the course of the trade, pretty sure some club had multiple bids on F/S and or Academy players with the same pick in the past, and how would clubs know in advance if they were going to bid on player x in round 3?

look how a boring trade period can have us talking about something that is 13 months away. ;)


They do. My mistake. As I stated I am not up to scratch with this stuff and no one has bothered to come along and provide any decent models.
 
EXAMPLE

North finish 17th in 2018 and Thomas, Blakey, Scott and Crocker all nominate North

4 bids are placed for Blakey, Thomas, Scott and Crocker with picks 7, 10, 27 and 55 respectively.

North have picks 2, 20, 38 & 56, but wants to match all of these bids.

North pick 2: Rankine

Picks 20, 38 & 56 = 1571 points + 1723 2019 points = 3294 points

Blakey pick 7 = 1644 points - 20% = 1315 points. Blakey is ours.

1979 points remain in the bank

Thomas pick 10 = 1395 points - 20% = 1116 points. Thomas is ours.

863 points remain in the bank

Scott pick 27 = 703 points - 20% = 562 points. Scott is ours.

301 points remain in the bank

Crocker pick 55 = 207 points - 20% = 166 points. Crocker is ours.

145 points remain in the bank

However, we have now seriously jeopardized our 2019 1st round pick as (1723 - 145 = 1578) 1578 now go in to deficit for that year.

Perfectly explained and what a result that would be.

So given your example, in 2019 we end up with pick 10, 28, 46 and 64, we could conceivably make up the difference and hold onto our 1st pick, which we all know we will need for Kelly :)
 
So then they don't trade for him. Money/cap space problem solved.

Imagine if Ballenden didn't get bid on before pick 24 and they have just thrown away a good pick to add a player who probably isn't even best 22, purely for "leadership".

I don't think I will ever sway you Thewlis, you obviously don't rate Swallow and don't appreciate what cap space means to some clubs. But that is alright, like they say, you can only lead a horse to water ;)
 
EXAMPLE

North finish 17th in 2018 and Thomas, Blakey, Scott and Crocker all nominate North

4 bids are placed for Blakey, Thomas, Scott and Crocker with picks 7, 10, 27 and 55 respectively.

North have picks 2, 20, 38 & 56, but wants to match all of these bids.

North pick 2: Rankine

Picks 20, 38 & 56 = 1571 points + 1723 2019 points = 3294 points

Blakey pick 7 = 1644 points - 20% = 1315 points. Blakey is ours.

1979 points remain in the bank

Thomas pick 10 = 1395 points - 20% = 1116 points. Thomas is ours.

863 points remain in the bank

Scott pick 27 = 703 points - 20% = 562 points. Scott is ours.

301 points remain in the bank

Crocker pick 55 = 207 points - 20% = 166 points. Crocker is ours.

145 points remain in the bank

However, we have now seriously jeopardized our 2019 1st round pick as (1723 - 145 = 1578) 1578 now go in to deficit for that year.


So, can we assume that, if the worst happens, and rival clubs rate those players even higher and bid much more aggressively - say with picks 5, 8, 15 and 25 - we are stuffed? Or is there still a way to get it done?
 
EXAMPLE

North finish 17th in 2018 and Thomas, Blakey, Scott and Crocker all nominate North

4 bids are placed for Blakey, Thomas, Scott and Crocker with picks 7, 10, 27 and 55 respectively.

North have picks 2, 20, 38 & 56, but wants to match all of these bids.

North pick 2: Rankine

Picks 20, 38 & 56 = 1571 points + 1723 2019 points = 3294 points

Blakey pick 7 = 1644 points - 20% = 1315 points. Blakey is ours.

1979 points remain in the bank

Thomas pick 10 = 1395 points - 20% = 1116 points. Thomas is ours.

863 points remain in the bank

Scott pick 27 = 703 points - 20% = 562 points. Scott is ours.

301 points remain in the bank

Crocker pick 55 = 207 points - 20% = 166 points. Crocker is ours.

145 points remain in the bank

However, we have now seriously jeopardized our 2019 1st round pick as (1723 - 145 = 1578) 1578 now go in to deficit for that year.

say we finish mid-table to 2019, 9th

our picks would be

9 = 1469 pts
27 = 703 pts
45 = 347 pts
63 = 112 pts

total points = 2631

minus 1578 (deficit) = 1053

so if I have this correct in 2019 we would lose pick 9, 27, 45 and 63, and end up with pick 17 (1025 pts) pick 72 (19 pts) pick 73 (9 pts)

is that how you see it? I assume this could be altered by trading in picks and we would be desperate to trade in some late first early second rounders to offset the damage to our first round pick, but at the same time, we will be trying to facilitate a trade to get JK to us. looks like very interesting times ahead.
 

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