Analysis A positive rebuilding trend 2022

[John Who]

After 7 rounds, we’re currently 3 Wins, 4 Losses. From the surface, it appears we might be stagnating from last year where we were exactly the same ratio of W:L (with a similar score percentage).

However, what is pleasing is that we are running out games a lot more stronger than we have in the recent years. This was my initial subjective feel, so I decided to pull up some score stats focusing on the 4th quarters of each round:

1. 1.5 vs 3.4 (vs Freo)
2. 1.4 vs 1.3 (vs Pies)
3. 5.1 vs 2.2 (vs Port)
4. 3.3 vs 3.2 (vs Dons)
5. 2.5 vs 2.0 (vs Tigers)
6. 3.4 vs 4.0 (vs Dogs)
7. 5.2 vs 3.1 (vs GWS)

Thus far, in the last quarters, we’ve had a total of 44 scoring shots versus our opponents with a combined 30 scoring shots. Overall, what the stats indicate to me is that we are:

• running out games well (our fitness appears to have improved)
• competing well
• have the ability to outscore our opponents
• able to better ourselves regardless of what happened in the first half.

Obviously, it would be nice if we can outscore our opponents for the full 4 quarters! But as far as current trends are showing, we are competing right till the end.

I will try and update the stats above every few games, to see if we can hopefully maintain this trend.

 

[xjamescleanx]

 

[Sanders]

Yup. We totally overran GWS in the 4th. Nothing to do with the game being over, nothing to do with them running out the clock in junk time

No sirree

 

[skam85]

If we outscore our opponents for the whole 4 quarters, we will win more games!

Stay tuned for more earth shattering threads from john - next up, Tom Doedee

12

Tom Doedee

Age

27

Ht

190cm

Wt

90kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.1

4star

K

8.5

3star

HB

8.6

5star

M

5.6

5star

T

2.6

4star

MG

228.8

4star

D

15.3

4star

K

9.5

4star

HB

5.8

3star

M

6.3

5star

T

1.3

2star

MG

228.8

3star

D

19.8

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

9.4

5star

M

6.6

5star

T

1.4

4star

's 60th game is just around the corner.

 

[footy4ever]

After 7 rounds, we’re currently 3 Wins, 4 Losses. From the surface, it appears we might be stagnating from last year where we were exactly the same ratio of W:L (with a similar score percentage 92% after round 7 in 2021, 93% currently in 2022).

However, what is pleasing is that we are running out games a lot more stronger than we have in the recent years. This was my initial subjective feel, so I decided to pull up some score stats focusing on the 4th quarters of each round:

1. 1.5 vs 3.4 (vs Freo)
2. 1.4 vs 1.3 (vs Pies)
3. 5.1 vs 2.2 (vs Port)
4. 3.3 vs 3.2 (vs Dons)
5. 2.5 vs 2.0 (vs Tigers)
6. 3.4 vs 3.0 (vs Dogs)
7. 5.2 vs 3.1 (vs GWS)

Thus far, in the last quarters, we’ve had a total of 44 scoring shots versus our opponents with a combined 30 scoring shots. Overall, what the stats indicate to me is that we are:

• running out games well (our fitness appears to have improved)
• competing well
• have the ability to outscore our opponents
• able to better ourselves regardless of what happened in the first half.

Obviously, it would be nice if we can outscore our opponents for the full 4 quarters! But as far as current trends are showing, we are competing right till the end.

I will try and update the stats above every few games, to see if we can hopefully maintain this trend.

In general I think you're correct in that it appears to me we are fitter and running out games better than last year. Fitness and effort can only compensate so much for our deficiencies though.

We've only won one first qtr, however we've shown that as the game progresses we're able to grind our way back in, and that could be because of our better fitness....or it could be because of a dozen other reasons. Whichever, our starts are generally putrid, and I can remember they have been for a while now, not just while going through this awful stage but when we were quite competent. I seem to recall a number of games where we conceded the first two, three goals, usually in quick time, before recovering. Not always, but more often than I like to recall.

I get the feeling we get jumped in tactics and in ferocity, as if the homework hasn't been done and the ol' "the crows don't tag" mindset has lingered and won't go away. It feels like we wait and see what the opposition is up to and then try to work out a way to counter that instead of coming in with a preemptive plan for the possible scenarios.

Really do need to get our starts sorted so we can get a grip on the game early. Personnel of course is a factor.

 

[Crow till I die]

After 7 rounds, we’re currently 3 Wins, 4 Losses. From the surface, it appears we might be stagnating from last year where we were exactly the same ratio of W:L (with a similar score percentage 92% after round 7 in 2021, 93% currently in 2022).

However, what is pleasing is that we are running out games a lot more stronger than we have in the recent years. This was my initial subjective feel, so I decided to pull up some score stats focusing on the 4th quarters of each round:

1. 1.5 vs 3.4 (vs Freo)
2. 1.4 vs 1.3 (vs Pies)
3. 5.1 vs 2.2 (vs Port)
4. 3.3 vs 3.2 (vs Dons)
5. 2.5 vs 2.0 (vs Tigers)
6. 3.4 vs 3.0 (vs Dogs)
7. 5.2 vs 3.1 (vs GWS)

Thus far, in the last quarters, we’ve had a total of 44 scoring shots versus our opponents with a combined 30 scoring shots. Overall, what the stats indicate to me is that we are:

• running out games well (our fitness appears to have improved)
• competing well
• have the ability to outscore our opponents
• able to better ourselves regardless of what happened in the first half.

Obviously, it would be nice if we can outscore our opponents for the full 4 quarters! But as far as current trends are showing, we are competing right till the end.

I will try and update the stats above every few games, to see if we can hopefully maintain this trend.

Another one is to look at the teams we played for the 1st 7 games last year vs the ones this year for the 3-4 win/loss record to see how we look with what was to be a tougher draw on paper this year.

Last year
Geelong - WIN (home) - Top 4
Sydney - Loss (away)
Gold Coast - WIN (home)
North Melbourne - WIN (away)
Fremantle - Loss (home)
Hawthorn - Loss (away)
GWS - Loss (home)

This year
Fremantle - Loss (home)
Collingwood - Loss (away)
Port Adelaide - WIN (home) - Top 4
Essendon - Loss (away) - Top 8
Richmond - WIN (home)
Western Bulldogs - WIN (away) - Top 8 (and made GF)
GWS - Loss (home) - Top 8

Our first 7 round draw has been harder this year (if measuring against sides that made the top 4/8 the year before) than last highlighted by a huge win for the club against the dogs at Mars stadium

We lost last year and this year V Fremantle and GWS both at home. Our wins last year were against Geelong R1 - which was great but round 1 can throw up some real surprises. Then we beat GC and North who are both well away from being a real top 8 side

The wins this year, Port in a showdown after they made the prelim last year, Richmond and the Dogs who made the GF last year

I think we ARE on the upward trend although it will take time and this year to me was all about improvement in the game plan and seeing the good kids get real game time and show what they can do

 

[John Who]

In general I think you're correct in that it appears to me we are fitter and running out games better than last year. Fitness and effort can only compensate so much for our deficiencies though.

We've only won one first qtr, however we've shown that as the game progresses we're able to grind our way back in, and that could be because of our better fitness....or it could be because of a dozen other reasons. Whichever, our starts are generally putrid, and I can remember they have been for a while now, not just while going through this awful stage but when we were quite competent. I seem to recall a number of games where we conceded the first two, three goals, usually in quick time, before recovering. Not always, but more often than I like to recall.

I get the feeling we get jumped in tactics and in ferocity, as if the homework hasn't been done and the ol' "the crows don't tag" mindset has lingered and won't go away. It feels like we wait and see what the opposition is up to and then try to work out a way to counter that instead of coming in with a preemptive plan for the possible scenarios.

Really do need to get our starts sorted so we can get a grip on the game early. Personnel of course is a factor.
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I’ve thought about the rebuilding situation and what is the critical thing we’d all hope to see generally in 2022. I believe the key is for us to be competitive and play the game out in its entirety, regardless of the outcome. Once the youngsters bulk up and have more confidence in their game and bodies, hopefully this would lead to better first quarter results.

In the meantime, as far as rebuilding goes, I’d much rather us being on par (or better) in the last quarters more than any other quarters. This would imply a good fitness base and good mental application to play right till the end.

 

[Dewy006]

Another one is to look at the teams we played for the 1st 7 games last year vs the ones this year for the 3-4 win/loss record to see how we look with what was to be a tougher draw on paper this year.

Last year
Geelong - WIN (home) - Top 4
Sydney - Loss (away)
Gold Coast - WIN (home)
North Melbourne - WIN (away)
Fremantle - Loss (home)
Hawthorn - Loss (away)
GWS - Loss (home)

This year
Fremantle - Loss (home)
Collingwood - Loss (away)
Port Adelaide - WIN (home) - Top 4
Essendon - Loss (away) - Top 8
Richmond - WIN (home)
Western Bulldogs - WIN (away) - Top 8 (and made GF)
GWS - Loss (home) - Top 8

Our first 7 round draw has been harder this year (if measuring against sides that made the top 4/8 the year before) than last highlighted by a huge win for the club against the dogs at Mars stadium

We lost last year and this year V Fremantle and GWS both at home. Our wins last year were against Geelong R1 - which was great but round 1 can throw up some real surprises. Then we beat GC and North who are both well away from being a real top 8 side

The wins this year, Port in a showdown after they made the prelim last year, Richmond and the Dogs who made the GF last year

I think we ARE on the upward trend although it will take time and this year to me was all about improvement in the game plan and seeing the good kids get real game time and show what they can do

Our draw has not been hard this year. Measuring teams on their form from last year is simplistic. We’ve had a large enough sample size this year to make some conclusions. The Essendon loss being a great example. Yeah they were a top 8 team last year, but THIS year they have been an absolute rabble, looking back on it, that loss is inexcusable. We also just got pummeled by a GWS side who had 1 won for the year.

 

[Crow till I die]

Our draw has not been hard this year. Measuring teams on their form from last year is simplistic. We’ve had a large enough sample size this year to make some conclusions. The Essendon loss being a great example. Yeah they were a top 8 team last year, but THIS year they have been an absolute rabble, looking back on it, that loss is inexcusable. We also just got pummeled by a GWS side who had 1 won for the year.

It is simplistic but its the best available data until this season is done. Port for example started 0-5 - but their losses were a narrow one to Brisbane in Brisbane, The Hawks (that was a real turn up!!), Us in the showdown (always generally a 50-50 game), the all conquering Melbourne, Carlton by a kick after a big comeback away. So you could say gee - anyone losing to Port must stink (I know we think it anyway) but being realistic, Port are every chance to finish higher up the ladder than us and 'might' still make finals. Until the season ends we won't know if their early season form was real or out of character considering they were prelim finalists 2 years running

In the games I listed above - discount Freo and GWS as they were in both groups of 7 and we had the same results against both - so from the 5 teams lest, Geelong were the only side from the year before that were bonafide top 4 material - the rest of them were all low end of table.

This year, the dogs at Mars was huge - who wins there and they were only in the grand final last year? Richmond and collingwood finished outside the 8 with Collingwood down the bottom end and Essendon were finalists - remember they have been missing some key players like a few sides have been early on. EDIT - and we beat Port

I am content with my call that I think we have played better sides this year early on and we are on the gradual improve

 

[Sanders]

In the meantime, as far as rebuilding goes, I’d much rather us being on par (or better) in the last quarters more than any other quarters. This would imply a good fitness base and good mental application to play right till the end.

Classic Dr Who

Doesn’t worry about when the game is in the balance, when it’s there to be won

Thinks the other team running out the clock is a lack of fitness on their behalf

 

[Golumless]

It is simplistic but its the best available data until this season is done. Port for example started 0-5 - but their losses were a narrow one to Brisbane in Brisbane, The Hawks (that was a real turn up!!), Us in the showdown (always generally a 50-50 game), the all conquering Melbourne, Carlton by a kick after a big comeback away. So you could say gee - anyone losing to Port must stink (I know we think it anyway) but being realistic, Port are every chance to finish higher up the ladder than us and 'might' still make finals. Until the season ends we won't know if their early season form was real or out of character considering they were prelim finalists 2 years running

In the games I listed above - discount Freo and GWS as they were in both groups of 7 and we had the same results against both - so from the 5 teams lest, Geelong were the only side from the year before that were bonafide top 4 material - the rest of them were all low end of table.

This year, the dogs at Mars was huge - who wins there and they were only in the grand final last year? Richmond and collingwood finished outside the 8 with Collingwood down the bottom end and Essendon were finalists - remember they have been missing some key players like a few sides have been early on. EDIT - and we beat Port

I am content with my call that I think we have played better sides this year early on and we are on the gradual improve

I doubt what were dishing up is out of character, after all, it looks like we're the same as last year. Mercilessly determined to kill off anyone who supports us with heart issues with our love of < 2 goal games, can jump good teams if they're having an off game, can be uncompetitive pus when we're off, and lacking quality/experience/structures to really indicate we're anything more then a rebuilding team. The only real difference from last year is that we've gone from a team that would drop off in Q3-Q4 to being a consistently slow starter.

That said, it's also likely we overachieved last year considering how dire our list was (it's still dire, but at least it's seemingly improved with the addition of Dawson), so I'm hesitant to call a repeat a poor season. More it's around par at this point as it's set up for a 7-8 win year. Considering the year seems rather even around the board (+ double ups against North and West Coast), there is certainly potential to end up at 9 or 10 wins which would be a really solid season. Especially if our 2s end up converting their hot start into a deep finals run.

 

[John Who]

Our draw has not been hard this year. Measuring teams on their form from last year is simplistic. We’ve had a large enough sample size this year to make some conclusions. The Essendon loss being a great example. Yeah they were a top 8 team last year, but THIS year they have been an absolute rabble, looking back on it, that loss is inexcusable. We also just got pummeled by a GWS side who had 1 won for the year.

I think he’s making a fair observation in that during the first 7 rounds, we’ve played a Preliminary finalist (Port) and Grand finalist (Dogs) from the previous year, which makes it a slightly tougher draw than last year’s.

This is comparing only the first 7 rounds, as a relative estimate, between seasons 2021 and 2022.

 

[John Who]

I doubt what were dishing up is out of character, after all, it looks like we're the same as last year. Mercilessly determined to kill off anyone who supports us with heart issues with our love of < 2 goal games, can jump good teams if they're having an off game, can be uncompetitive pus when we're off, and lacking quality/experience/structures to really indicate we're anything more then a rebuilding team. The only real difference from last year is that we've gone from a team that would drop off in Q3-Q4 to being a consistently slow starter.

That said, it's also likely we overachieved last year considering how dire our list was (it's still dire, but at least it's seemingly improved with the addition of Dawson), so I'm hesitant to call a repeat a poor season. More it's around par at this point as it's set up for a 7-8 win year. Considering the year seems rather even around the board (+ double ups against North and West Coast), there is certainly potential to end up at 9 or 10 wins which would be a really solid season. Especially if our 2s end up converting their hot start into a deep finals run.

Another take is that after 7 games last year, it was clear that we were sliding down to bottom 4 material. This year, the trend is tracking in a different path (hence the thread). If we remain thereabouts after 3 quarters, there is a good chance we might pull out a win.

 

[Golumless]

Another take is that after 7 games last year, it was clear that we were sliding down to bottom 4 material. This year, the trend is tracking in a different path (hence the thread). If we remain thereabouts after 3 quarters, there is a good chance we might pull out a win.

Being realistic, the only thing that's stopping us from looking like we are going to slide into the bottom four at the moment is that there are three teams playing putrid football and we have a soft draw. That draw might be soft enough to improve our final w/l record, considering how this season is shaping out.

Being a good last quarter team or being a good first quarter team really doesn't mean that much when deciding how our season goes. Especially if you've become poor elsewhere, and right now we are slow starters.

 

[LeftyLuke]

Long way to go until round 22. I think we will end up around 7 or 8 wins just looking at our draw which isn't much of an improvement on last year. I think our fitness is better which is down to Burgess but I can't say I'm liking the game style Nick's is implementing. We are still in a rebuild and we should be exposing more players on our list to see what we have.

 

[Sanders]

I’m positive we’re gonna keep rebuilding for a while

 

[1990crow]

This hasn't aged well

 

[Crow till I die]

This hasn't aged well

We might end up with 7 or 8 wins by virtue of our draw playing WCE & north who seem to be really really bad..maybe even worse than we have been in the last few weeks. But that possible increase we could get in wins is a mirage due to how bad those other 2 sides are

Last 2 weeks have been a real step backwards in a lot of ways

 

[ABAB]

This hasn't aged well

How so? We got smashed by Fremantle and Carlton who are both in the top 4 so this is hardly a surprise but we did compete in the 1st half with Carlton despite the horrible umpiring, smashed by Collingwood (very disappointing loss), loss to Essendon (another very disappointing loss), smashed by GWS who undoubtedly have the talent to respond after they felt the media pressure all week and beat Power Power, Bulldogs (just outside the 8) and Richmond (inside the 8).

So I would say we are still in a positive rebuild trend and our result show we've are still very inconsistent which is expected of a young developing side and is similar to last year were we played some very good football but starting to see the results this year.

 

[BRL121]

How so? We got smashed by Fremantle and Carlton who are both in the top 4 so this is hardly a surprise but we did compete in the 1st half with Carlton despite the horrible umpiring, smashed by Collingwood (very disappointing loss), loss to Essendon (another very disappointing loss), smashed by GWS who undoubtedly have the talent to respond after they felt the media pressure all week and beat Power Power, Bulldogs (just outside the 8) and Richmond (inside the 8).

So I would say we are still in a positive rebuild trend and our result show we've are still very inconsistent which is expected of a young developing side and is similar to last year were we played some very good football but starting to see the results this year.

We were not smashed by Freo: we threw away the win.

On your main point, we are headed to be pretty well what we were last year, not an improvement. There is no upward trend now.
It would need something unexpected in the rest of the year to get an upward trend.

 

[ABAB]

We were not smashed by Freo: we threw away the win.

On your main point, we are headed to be pretty well what we were last year, not an improvement. There is no upward trend now.
It would need something unexpected in the rest of the year to get an upward trend.

Fremantle missed plenty of easy shots on goal so we were smashed. Like last year we are still inconsistent in games but been more competitive for longer this year, if we weren't on the up trend we wouldn't have beaten Richmond and the Bulldogs away in Ballarat, although Showdown are always consider 50/50 Port Power did start as favourite so not many expected us to win that game. Hence we have improved otherwise we would have lost those match while being competitive so clearly we are still very inconsistent but improving.

 

[BRL121]

Fremantle missed plenty of easy shots on goal so we were smashed. Like last year we are still inconsistent in games but been more competitive for longer this year, if we weren't on the up trend we wouldn't have beaten Richmond and the Bulldogs away in Ballarat, although Showdown are always consider 50/50 Port Power did start as favourite so not many expected us to win that game. Hence we have improved otherwise we would have lost those match while being competitive so clearly we are still very inconsistent but improving.

I think your basic football knowledge needs a refresher course.

 

[ABAB]

I think your basic football knowledge needs a refresher course.

How so? Go and re-watch the Fremantle game and tell me they didn't smashed us

 

[BRL121]

How so? Go and re-watch the Fremantle game and tell me they didn't smashed us

I think that most would think that being in a clear winning position, three goals up with 7 min to go, then throwing it away with a ridiculous kick across the ground, hardly anounts to them "smashing us". On your logic, if we hadn't done the howler, and actually won, then they would have still "smashed" us.

 

[ABAB]

I think that most would think that being in a clear winning position, three goals up with 7 min to go, then throwing it away with a ridiculous kick across the ground, hardly anounts to them "smashing us". On your logic, if we hadn't done the howler, and actually won, then they would have still "smashed" us.

Go and re-watch the entire game, we were very lucky to be that close.