This is just a week-by-week comparison of the ladder top-four and the top four according to my computer, which is supposed to have predictive value but is really just a collation of results to date.
Unfortunately, byes and the like mess with the ladder top for a bit (and with the cancelled matches early, that's not going away) but I'll ignore that and run with the ladder according to the AFL website.
I'll also list teams with as many wins as fourth place, and any team with a rating of +10 or more. (The rating is suggestive of their expected result against a hypothetical average team on a neutral ground). +10 teams will generally be at least borderline good enough for the top four. +20 would be good enough for the top spot.
Round 1. (It's difficult to consider the Opening Round ladder meaningful)
GWS 2
Hawthorn 2
Gold Coast 1
Geelong 1
(Adelaide, Collingwood, Richmond, Bulldogs, Brisbane 1)
Hawthorn 21
Brisbane 19
Geelong 14
GWS/Bulldogs 9
Round 2.
Hawthorn 3
Adelaide 2
GWS 2
Collingwood 2
(Brisbane 2)
Hawthorn 21
Brisbane 16
Geelong 12
Adelaide 10
Round 3.
Hawthorn 4
Adelaide 3
Brisbane 3
Gold Coast 2
(GWS, Collingwood, St Kilda, Bulldogs 2)
Hawthorn 20
Brisbane 15
Geelong 12
Adelaide 11
(GWS 10)
Round 4.
Hawthorn 4
Brisbane 4
Gold Coast 3
GWS 3
(Adelaide, Collingwood, St Kilda 3)
Hawthorn 18
Brisbane 15
Geelong 14
Adelaide, GWS 12
(Sydney 10)
Round 5.
Brisbane 5
Gold Coast 4
GWS 4
Collingwood 4
(Hawthorn 4)
Brisbane 17
Geelong 16
GWS, Hawthorn 14
(Collingwood 11)
(Gold Coast 10)
Round 6.
Collingwood 5
Brisbane 5
Gold Coast 4
GWS 4
(Adelaide, Geelong, Hawthorn 4)
Collingwood 18
Geelong 17
Hawthorn 14
GWS 13
(Bulldogs 11)
(Adelaide, Brisbane 10)
Round 7.
Collingwood 6
Brisbane 6
Gold Coast 5
Hawthorn 5
Collingwood 19
Bulldogs 16
Brisbane, Geelong 14
(Hawthorn 13)
(Carlton 10)
Round 8.
Brisbane 7
Collingwood 6
Hawthorn 6
Gold Coast 5
(Adelaide, Bulldogs, Geelong 5)
Bulldogs 20
Collingwood 19
Brisbane, Geelong, Hawthorn 15
(Adelaide 13)
Round 9.
Brisbane 7.5
Collingwood 7
Hawthorn 7
Gold Coast 6
(Adelaide 6)
Collingwood, Bulldogs 19
Hawthorn 16
Brisbane, Geelong 13
(Adelaide 12)
Round 10.
Collingwood 8
Brisbane 7.5
Gold Coast 7
Hawthorn 7
Bulldogs 24
Geelong 19
Collingwood 18
Hawthorn 16
(Adelaide 13)
Round 11.
Collingwood 9
Brisbane 8.5
Gold Coast 8
Adelaide 7
(Geelong, Hawthorn 7)
Bulldogs 22
Geelong 20
Collingwood 19
Adelaide, Brisbane 14
(Gold Coast, Hawthorn 11)
Round 12.
Collingwood 10.
Brisbane 9.5
Adelaide 8
Gold Coast 8
(Geelong 8)
Collingwood 23
Geelong 21
Adelaide 20
Bulldogs 19
(Brisbane 12)
Round 13.
Collingwood 11
Brisbane 9.5
Adelaide 9
Geelong 9
Geelong 21
Collingwood 20
Adelaide 19
Bulldogs 16
(Brisbane 13)
(Hawthorn 10)
Round 14.
Collingwood 11
Geelong 10
Brisbane 9.5
Adelaide 9
(Hawthorn 9)
Geelong 25
Bulldogs 20
Adelaide 19
Collingwood 18
(Brisbane, Hawthorn 10)
Round 15.
Collingwood 12
Brisbane 10.5
Geelong 10
Adelaide 9
(Hawthorn, Fremantle, GWS 9)
Bulldogs 22
Collingwood, Geelong 19
Adelaide 17
(Brisbane 16)
Round 16.
Collingwood 13
Brisbane 10.5
Adelaide 10
Geelong 10
(Hawthorn, Fremantle 10)
Adelaide, Bulldogs 20
Brisbane, Geelong 17
(Collingwood) 16
(Hawthorn 14)
Round 17.
Collingwood 14
Brisbane 11.5
Adelaide 11
Geelong 11
(Hawthorn 11)
Bulldogs 21
Collingwood 20
Geelong 18
Adelaide 17
(Brisbane 16)
(Gold Coast 10)
Round 18
Collingwood 14
Brisbane 12.5
Adelaide 12
Geelong 11
(Gold Coast, Hawthorn, GWS, Fremantle 11) - wow - 4th tied with 8th.
Adelaide, Collingwood 20
Brisbane, Bulldogs 19
(Geelong 16)
(Hawthorn 13)
(Gold Coast 10)
Round 19
Collingwood 14
Brisbane 13.5
Adelaide 13
Geelong 12
(Hawthorn, GWS, Fremantle 12)
Adelaide 23
Bulldogs, Brisbane 19
Geelong, Collingwood 17
(Hawthorn 14)
(GWS 12)
At present, the other finals contenders Fremantle and Gold Coast are rated at +7. The best of the rest are Melbourne and Sydney at -2. The lowest rating (actually, the lowest of the season) is West Coast -32.
It's possible that my computer has fallen into the same Bulldogs trap as other algorithms (like the sainted Squiggle) in that it really likes big wins - even against poor teams - and doesn't rate a small loss to a good team as a big deal. Usually, that's OK, but it can inflate the rating of a flat track bully.
Unfortunately, byes and the like mess with the ladder top for a bit (and with the cancelled matches early, that's not going away) but I'll ignore that and run with the ladder according to the AFL website.
I'll also list teams with as many wins as fourth place, and any team with a rating of +10 or more. (The rating is suggestive of their expected result against a hypothetical average team on a neutral ground). +10 teams will generally be at least borderline good enough for the top four. +20 would be good enough for the top spot.
Round 1. (It's difficult to consider the Opening Round ladder meaningful)
GWS 2
Hawthorn 2
Gold Coast 1
Geelong 1
(Adelaide, Collingwood, Richmond, Bulldogs, Brisbane 1)
Hawthorn 21
Brisbane 19
Geelong 14
GWS/Bulldogs 9
Round 2.
Hawthorn 3
Adelaide 2
GWS 2
Collingwood 2
(Brisbane 2)
Hawthorn 21
Brisbane 16
Geelong 12
Adelaide 10
Round 3.
Hawthorn 4
Adelaide 3
Brisbane 3
Gold Coast 2
(GWS, Collingwood, St Kilda, Bulldogs 2)
Hawthorn 20
Brisbane 15
Geelong 12
Adelaide 11
(GWS 10)
Round 4.
Hawthorn 4
Brisbane 4
Gold Coast 3
GWS 3
(Adelaide, Collingwood, St Kilda 3)
Hawthorn 18
Brisbane 15
Geelong 14
Adelaide, GWS 12
(Sydney 10)
Round 5.
Brisbane 5
Gold Coast 4
GWS 4
Collingwood 4
(Hawthorn 4)
Brisbane 17
Geelong 16
GWS, Hawthorn 14
(Collingwood 11)
(Gold Coast 10)
Round 6.
Collingwood 5
Brisbane 5
Gold Coast 4
GWS 4
(Adelaide, Geelong, Hawthorn 4)
Collingwood 18
Geelong 17
Hawthorn 14
GWS 13
(Bulldogs 11)
(Adelaide, Brisbane 10)
Round 7.
Collingwood 6
Brisbane 6
Gold Coast 5
Hawthorn 5
Collingwood 19
Bulldogs 16
Brisbane, Geelong 14
(Hawthorn 13)
(Carlton 10)
Round 8.
Brisbane 7
Collingwood 6
Hawthorn 6
Gold Coast 5
(Adelaide, Bulldogs, Geelong 5)
Bulldogs 20
Collingwood 19
Brisbane, Geelong, Hawthorn 15
(Adelaide 13)
Round 9.
Brisbane 7.5
Collingwood 7
Hawthorn 7
Gold Coast 6
(Adelaide 6)
Collingwood, Bulldogs 19
Hawthorn 16
Brisbane, Geelong 13
(Adelaide 12)
Round 10.
Collingwood 8
Brisbane 7.5
Gold Coast 7
Hawthorn 7
Bulldogs 24
Geelong 19
Collingwood 18
Hawthorn 16
(Adelaide 13)
Round 11.
Collingwood 9
Brisbane 8.5
Gold Coast 8
Adelaide 7
(Geelong, Hawthorn 7)
Bulldogs 22
Geelong 20
Collingwood 19
Adelaide, Brisbane 14
(Gold Coast, Hawthorn 11)
Round 12.
Collingwood 10.
Brisbane 9.5
Adelaide 8
Gold Coast 8
(Geelong 8)
Collingwood 23
Geelong 21
Adelaide 20
Bulldogs 19
(Brisbane 12)
Round 13.
Collingwood 11
Brisbane 9.5
Adelaide 9
Geelong 9
Geelong 21
Collingwood 20
Adelaide 19
Bulldogs 16
(Brisbane 13)
(Hawthorn 10)
Round 14.
Collingwood 11
Geelong 10
Brisbane 9.5
Adelaide 9
(Hawthorn 9)
Geelong 25
Bulldogs 20
Adelaide 19
Collingwood 18
(Brisbane, Hawthorn 10)
Round 15.
Collingwood 12
Brisbane 10.5
Geelong 10
Adelaide 9
(Hawthorn, Fremantle, GWS 9)
Bulldogs 22
Collingwood, Geelong 19
Adelaide 17
(Brisbane 16)
Round 16.
Collingwood 13
Brisbane 10.5
Adelaide 10
Geelong 10
(Hawthorn, Fremantle 10)
Adelaide, Bulldogs 20
Brisbane, Geelong 17
(Collingwood) 16
(Hawthorn 14)
Round 17.
Collingwood 14
Brisbane 11.5
Adelaide 11
Geelong 11
(Hawthorn 11)
Bulldogs 21
Collingwood 20
Geelong 18
Adelaide 17
(Brisbane 16)
(Gold Coast 10)
Round 18
Collingwood 14
Brisbane 12.5
Adelaide 12
Geelong 11
(Gold Coast, Hawthorn, GWS, Fremantle 11) - wow - 4th tied with 8th.
Adelaide, Collingwood 20
Brisbane, Bulldogs 19
(Geelong 16)
(Hawthorn 13)
(Gold Coast 10)
Round 19
Collingwood 14
Brisbane 13.5
Adelaide 13
Geelong 12
(Hawthorn, GWS, Fremantle 12)
Adelaide 23
Bulldogs, Brisbane 19
Geelong, Collingwood 17
(Hawthorn 14)
(GWS 12)
At present, the other finals contenders Fremantle and Gold Coast are rated at +7. The best of the rest are Melbourne and Sydney at -2. The lowest rating (actually, the lowest of the season) is West Coast -32.
It's possible that my computer has fallen into the same Bulldogs trap as other algorithms (like the sainted Squiggle) in that it really likes big wins - even against poor teams - and doesn't rate a small loss to a good team as a big deal. Usually, that's OK, but it can inflate the rating of a flat track bully.
