A Third Team In Sydney - It's Only a Matter Of Time !!

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BringBackTorps

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1. This is a Doctoral Thesis presented by Dr K. Perry in 2017 to Western Sydney University.

WARNING: Very long read.

Some light holidays' reading, involving the creation of GWS, & its strategies, & challenges, to build, over time, a large fan base in WS.
WS has a high % immigrant & working class demographic (excluding the NW) that, previously, had very little connections with AF.
Complex sociological & psychological theories are widely canvassed...301 pages!

Or just turn to the Chapters 5-8, that solely involve GWS, to avoid the complex theoretical analysis of the general public & general sports fans' influences, motivations & behaviours.
Dr K. Perry even studied, & cited, Big Footy GWS Threads! (Amongst other social media, AFL & GWS Releases, & Sydney MSM articles, attending GWS games & GWS & AFL events in the WS etc.).

Perry writes

"This Thesis examines the formation of sporting heroes in the context of a new sporting club. In particular, it investigates when & how a sporting hero is formed, & who (or what) dictates the emergence of a hero...Moreover, this Thesis discusses sports hero formation in relation to national identity (my emphasis), arguing it can be a critical component of the development of heroes".

Whilst acknowledging GWS is making progress, Perry states its Giant Stadium crowds & on-field players are characterised by their "whiteness" (his word).

The situation can change. In the multi cultural/multi ethnic diversity of WS, GWS must attract a more diverse fan base to maximise its appeal & fan nos.


As GWS had c. 30,500 members, & average home crowds of 11,000+, in 2019, GWS is certainly making strong progress. In 2011, it had nil.



2. This 2018 SBS report covers GWS' attempts to engage ethnic communities.

 
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BringBackTorps

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This link is Part 1 of a very detailed Three Part Series on the huge growth of female Club & school comp. GR AF in Qld. Until 2017, Qld. had more regd. female AF players than Vic!
This superb Series forensically examines the Qld.-originated & designed strategies, psychological approaches etc., on how this phenomenon happened.

Even in 2020, Qld. is no.2 (& flogs WA); & Qld. leads Aust. with the highest % of female AF regd. participants- 42% of all regd. participants in Qld. are female!

K. Fenwick & G. Bastiani said

"School football remains a significant part of the pathway in Qld., with as many girls' sides as there are boys".

B. Brock said in 2013

"I reckon we could get to no. 1 in the country participation-wise for women & girls...They [AFLQ] started changing peoples' job descriptions...allocating KPI's around the playing of women & girls".

I am including this here, because its lessons- & aspirations- are also relevant for the other non-heartland State, NSW; & ACT.
Hopefully, the Qld. policies will be emulated in Sydney, & throughout all of NSW & ACT.
In AF heartland sthn. NSW (& far nthn. Vic.) regd. female Club nos. are very poor- GR AF clubs, disgracefully, are protecting their affiliated netball clubs.

WARNING: long read.

K. Fenwick & G. Bastiani
 
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BringBackTorps

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1. GWS has, in Nov.2020, created a female Academy, with bases in western Sydney, ACT, & sthn. NSW, replicating the successful male Academy formed in 2011.
(The 2 pictured players, T. Evans & E. Pease, were recently drafted by GWS' AFLW team).




2. hercanberra.com.au A. Senti 13.9.17

This is an example of the depressing consequences of the AFL's decades-long neglect of female AF- only rectified with the 2017 creation of the AFLW, & much more funding for GR female AF from 2016.


The highly overpaid AFL executives finally realised the error of their (comfortable) ways.

Strong female Club nos. have resulted in record high club AF nos. in the ACT, surpassing the previous mid-1980's record.
 
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madmug

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1. GWS has, in Nov.2020, created a female Academy, with bases in western Sydney, ACT, & sthn. NSW, replicating the successful male Academy formed in 2011.
(The 2 pictured players, T. Evans & E. Pease, were recently drafted by GWS' AFLW team).




2. hercanberra.com.au A. Senti 13.9.17

This is an example of the depressing consequences of the AFL's decades-long neglect of female AF- only rectified with the 2017 creation of the AFLW, & much more funding for GR female AF from 2016.


The highly overpaid AFL executives finally realised the error of their (comfortable) ways.

Strong female Club nos. have resulted in record high club AF nos. in the ACT, surpassing the previous mid-1980's record.
Womens football has been booming here in Tasmania too. However the AFL are doing the opposite to development here. After pushing hard to start a female state league, they are now pulling funds from clubs who are now struggling to continue as some have pulled the womens teams down to a lower standard regional football competition. The under 18's will just be a conduit from Tasmania to other places if the girls want to pursue a footy career & have a chance at getting into the AFLW. This exodus has already started.
 

Tasmanian saint

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Womens football has been booming here in Tasmania too. However the AFL are doing the opposite to development here. After pushing hard to start a female state league, they are now pulling funds from clubs who are now struggling to continue as some have pulled the womens teams down to a lower standard regional football competition. The under 18's will just be a conduit from Tasmania to other places if the girls want to pursue a footy career & have a chance at getting into the AFLW. This exodus has already started.
Yeah with the growth in women’s football it was a mind blowing decision to pull funding and shutdown the tslw buy AFLtas . I see another couple of the tsl best players have signed with sanfl clubs surely the tas government have to step in soon and take over running the game locally before the afl destroy it beyond repair!
 

BringBackTorps

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SIGNIFICANT STRATEGIC WEAKNESSES for the NRL- Talent Pool Too Shallow to Expand to 17 teams. One Fewer Sydney NRL Club Likely Before 2030.

S. Mascord, a RL journalist since 1990, 13.12.20 said

"My understanding is that the NRL's recent reluctance to expand has been based in part on reports of talent scouts who said there is not enough players to support 17 or 18 teams".


Courier Mail 10.1.21 said

"The NRL's plans to launch a 2nd Brisbane team are set to be put on ice...".


SMH M. Chammas 23.3.20 said

"But the reality of the situation has many inside NRL HQ convinced expansion in 2023 is dead".


Courier Mail/The West T. Meyn 20.6.20 said

"NRL can't afford to expand beyond 16 teams with the talent currently at its disposal".
"Why casualties are necessary to realise expansion dream".
"Where is the game going to find the talent to deliver a new NRL team to Qld. in 2023 & preserve the quality of the competition"?

(Behind paywall- can anyone link, & post here).


The long term significant decline of GR male contact RL nos. has become self-reinforcing, & almost immutable for the NRL to reverse: it becomes far more difficult to introduce jnr weight-based divisions when clubs now have much smaller nos. for each age group.
The recent decline in the NRL average skill levels, related to the above GR problem, reduces the appeal of the NRL comp.; & makes it much more difficult to expand to 17 teams.

I assume, however, because nearly all MSM RL experts (& Nine & Foxtel, understandably- higher ratings) want Brisbane 2 (big Suncorp crowds every week) , it will eventually be created.
It will, however, very likely eventually cause the loss of at least 1 Sydney team (which will merge with another Sydney team, or relocate to Brisbane).
At least 15+ NRL experts, & Nine & Foxtel, have recently attested they don't want the NRL to expand to 17 teams, because of skill dilution/NRL quality concerns (Their comments linked by me previously).

The loss of 1 Sydney NRL club will assist the growth of AF in Sydney- the exact gains for the AFL & GR AF, however, are difficult to ascertain.

For full details & links of the first 3 quotes above, refer to this link.
(Scroll to my post#311, then point 3).
 
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RedV3x

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The loss of 1 Sydney NRL club will assist the growth of AF in Sydney- the exact gains for the AFL & GR AF, however, are difficult to ascertain.
The rise and fall of football codes is independent of each other.
The loss/gains from the growth/demise of a football are extremely minimal in the short term.
In the long term, indirectly, their are some indirect benefits e.g. sponsorship, media attention, government support etc.
 

BringBackTorps

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The rise and fall of football codes is independent of each other.[I disagree]
Many codes in Australia obviously disagree with your above views- at least on the medium to long term negative impacts on their codes.

They are acutely aware of, & fear, the increasing size & strength of GR AF & the AFL comp.
They have expressed trepidation, generally, at the rise of GR AF in NSW, ACT, & Qld.; & at the rise of the AFL & AFLW in particular ie they are concerned, rightfully, at this growth of both- it is likely to cause a damaging impact on them eg:-

. Soccer moved the NSL (& later, A League from its 2005 start) from winter to summer to avoid direct competition with the AFL & NRL.

Whilst most soccer experts agree that playing in winter would produce a much higher standard in the A League, & help it link much better to soccer's GR, & NPL clubs, they still fear the A League would be overwhelmed ("no clear air") in the MSM by the AFL & NRL- A League would almost "disappear" from the MSM.
And fear ,shared A League/NRL/Super RU grounds would often result in severely damaged surfaces- A League would suffer the biggest detriment..

Do you dispute that these fears are valid concerns?


. P. Gould said on 4.9.19 that
"They (referring to AFL's extensive research on Sydney- my words) know more about Rugby League than Rugby League knows about itself "

& predicted "GWS will become a juggernaut ...".

(Scroll to my post#1100).

The NRL fears the growth of AF in Sydney- which has coincided with the collapse/almost disappearance of GR snr male contact RL in the NS, ES, & inner WS; & a major decline in GR jnr male contact RL nos. everywhere in Sydney- including the WS since 2012.

Do you dispute that the NRL has good grounds to be concerned?

.P. V'landys, in his first press conference in Oct. 2019, when questioned re the long-predicted expansion to Perth, said that the NRL should "...not waste funds on rusted-on AFL states".
He believes the AFL is totally omnipotent & omnipresent in Perth- do you dispute his concerns, re the chances for an NRL team being a success in Perth?
 
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RedV3x

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Many codes in Australia would disagree with you. They are acutely aware of, & fear, the increasing size & strength of AF & the AFL comp.
They have expressed trepidation, generally, at the rise of GR AF in NSW, ACT, & Qld.; & at the rise of the AFL & AFLW in particular ie they are concerned, rightfully, at this growth of both- it is likely to cause a damaging impact, & have negative effects, on them eg:-
Soccer moved the NSL (& later, A League from its start) from winter to summer to avoid direct competition with the AFL & NRL.

Whilst playing in winter would produce a much higher standard in the A League, & help it link much better to soccer's GR, & NPL clubs, many still fear the A League would be overwhelmed in the MSM by the AFL & NRL- almost "disappear" from the MSM. And shared A League/NRL/Super RU grounds would often severely damage grounds.

Do you dispute that these fears are valid concerns?
The rise and fall of football codes is indeed independent of each other.
Soccer, rugby and Australian Football all started at approximately the same time in Australia.
The Australian people chose Australian Football where they were free to do so.
Soccer has never appealed to the Australian people and whether soccer plays it's major competition in summer or winter is not going to change things.
That's a decision for soccer to make - how best to survive as a minor sport.

P. Gould predicted on 4.9.19 that "GWS will become a juggernaut ...".
The NRL fears the growth of AF in Sydney- which has coincided with the collapse/almost disappearance of GR snr male contact RL in the NS, ES, & inner WS; & a major decline in GR jnr male contact RL nos. everywhere in Sydney- including the WS since 2012.

Do you dispute that the NRL has good grounds to be concerned?
The AFL is indeed doing well in finding and developing people who are interested in Australian Rules Football.
The NRL is arguably doing a poor job in keeping people interested in rugby league.
You said it. I agree, but those GWS supporters aren't rugby league supporters (by and large).

P. V'landys, in his first press conference in Oct. 2019, when questioned re the long-predicted expansion to Perth, said that the NRL should "...not waste funds on rusted-on AFL states".
He believes the AFL is totally omnipotent & omnipresent in Perth- do you dispute his concerns, re the chances for an NRL team being a success in Perth?
Well, the NRL would struggle to set up a NRL side in Perth, just as the AFL struggled to set up AFL sides in Sydney.
That is because the scenario is the new sport/ dominant sport scenario and not the different case of rise and fall of football codes affecting each other.
The rise of a new sport is always difficult because the new sport doesn't have any of benefits of a dominant sport - coverage , publicity, sponsorship etc.
The demise of an existing sport only changes these factors very slowly.
The demise of an existing sport does not lead to changing preferences but more like not attracting new personnel.
The rise of a new sport is difficult because the infrastructure is not there to attract participants and also mature fans have to be found to pay the bills.
The AFL has risen because it spent a lot money targeting young people in education to participate and follow Australian Football.
In this way, the AFL might have affected participation numbers for other codes but it is an extremely slow process which really doesn't affect
elite participation and eventually will pay a dividend.
The NRL has shown a great unwillingness to spend money outside of the NRL.
Any attempt to establish a NRL side would indeed be foolish without huge investment and with an inferior product.
 

BringBackTorps

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In NSW, " Gamblers across the State lost $2.17b to poker machines from June to November 2020, up 7% on the same period in 2019. Punters in Western Sydney lost the most cash...In Fairfield LGA, profits surged to $197m,...in Canterbury-Bankstown they hit $187m...In Blacktown, poker machine profits were up 16% to $96m, while in Penrith, they increased 11% to $68m...Western Sydney Clubs accounted for one third of NSW net poker machine profits in the second half of 2020".


"Chief Advocate For The Alliance For Gambling Reform, Reverend T. Costello, said while rates of gambling increase during times of crisis, these figures made it obvious the gambling industry is taking advantage of low income areas....
'This is the gambling industry preying on the poorest postcodes [Western Sydney] that is where the the pokies are most ubiquitous...'Why does NSW have 10% of the world's pokies' ".

The NSW LNP govt. already has Lower House majority support for its proposed Pre-Commitment Of Losses Card- plus an Upper House majority to pass the new law (with support also from cross bench MP's).
This Card must be first obtained from the NSW govt. (the player will nominate their maximum pokie losses; the govt. law will ban totally cash being used on pokies; photo ID essential; & relatives of pokie addicts may apply to the govt. to have their addict relative banned from being issued the Card etc.).

The Card will slash the use & revenues of the vile poker machines (& pokie player losses) in NSW, & reduce greatly Pokie Club profits- & severely reduce funds going to NSW NRL Clubs.

Many NRL Clubs, to survive, have a very heavy reliance on affiliated Pokie Club funding- this slashing of funding will pose almost an existential threat on some NRL Clubs.

I suspect similar public pressure will be placed on other State govts. for similar legislation- including Qld. which will also have a major, negative impact on Qld. NRL Clubs.
 
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madmug

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In NSW, " Gamblers across the State lost $2.17b to poker machines from June to November 2020, up 7% on the same period in 2019. Punters in Western Sydney lost the most cash...In Fairfield LGA, profits surged to $197m,...in Canterbury-Bankstown they hit $187m...In Blacktown, poker machine profits were up 16% to $96m, while in Penrith, they increased 11% to $68m...Western Sydney Clubs accounted for one third of NSW net poker machine profits in the second half of 2020".


"Chief Advocate For The Alliance For Gambling Reform, Reverend T. Costello, said while rates of gambling increase during times of crisis, these figures made it obvious the gambling industry is taking advantage of low income areas....
'This is the gambling industry preying on the poorest postcodes [Western Sydney] that is where the the pokies are most ubiquitous...'Why does NSW have 10% of the world's pokies' ".

The NSW LNP govt. has Lower House majority support for the Card- plus an Upper House majority (with support also from cross bench MP's) to pass its Pre-Commitment card legislation.
This card must be first obtained from the NSW govt. (which sets pre-ordained maximum losses nominated by the player, cash to no longer be allowed on pokies, ID essential, relatives' banning rights etc.).The Card will slash pokie use in NSW, reduce greatly Pokie Club profits- & severely reduce funds gong to NSW NRL Clubs.

The new legislation will cause a major reduction in pokie revenues & profits- & pokie player losses.
Many NRL Clubs have a very heavy reliance on affiliated Pokie Club funding- this slashing of funding will pose almost an existential threat on some NRL Clubs.

I suspect similar pressure will be placed on other State govts. for similar legislation, including Qld. which will also have a major, negative impact on Qld. NRL Clubs.
The pokies lobby here in Tas bankrolled the LNP in the last state election. Blatant & disgraceful.

Many NRL clubs have been heavily reliant on their Leagues clubs. Penrith, St George-Illawarra, Wests, Canterbury-Bankstown etc. It wasn't enough to save the North Sydney Bears though.
 

BringBackTorps

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1. WWOS S. Merzabegian 26.6.19

Merzabegian said, re P. Gould (who was described by P. V'landys in 2020 as "having a great Rugby League brain", & V'landys wants him to work for the NRL HQ on a part time basis- in elite pathways' development)

"Gould's been a huge opponent of expansion, arguing the game doesn't have enough elite talent across the country to field another competitive side".
Gould also states in the article that there are insufficient fully "capable" coaches in the NRL.


Gould supports a second NRL club in Brisbane, but wants the NRL to remain at 16 teams- he prefers Sydney teams merge, or relocate, to remain at 16 teams.

There has been a collapse in GR snr & jnr male contact nos. in all of Sydney (excluding the Penrith District RL that still has its own "non-combined" GR snr & jnr comps.- although Penrith DRL still has had a long term significant decline in male contact nos.).
Ditto a collapse in GR jnr & snr male contact RL nos. on the Gold Coast- Brisbane-Sunshine Coast corridor.

This collapse is hurting the NRL's ability to expand to 17 teams successfully, putting it in an invidious dilemma.
Go to 17 clubs, with a game at Suncorp every week= bigger crowds, ratings, & more MSM interest in RL in Qld. ....but the deteriorating average skill standards in the NRL will be risky, as it might (after the initial "honeymoon" for the new team) eventually cause ratings & crowds to decline (with the associated risk to future Rights' & sponsorship $).
And how much will Brisbane 2 cannibalise the Broncos' & Titans' crowds/memberships/sponsorship/MSM interest etc.; & reduce (including for the Cowboys also) their no. of new, quality recruits?

One less NRL club in Sydney (Manly or Cronulla are often suggested for merging, or relocation) will benefit the AFL & GR AF in Sydney, over the medium to long term.



WWOS T. Elbra 22.8.19

Re the increasing decline in skill levels in the NRL, & the undesirability for the NRL to expand to 17 teams, P. Gould said

"I can't understand it. I've never seen it like this. There are a lot of teams out of form".
"I don't think we need more teams. We probably need them in different locations (implying reduction in Sydney NRL teams. My words & emphases)".

In 2020 there was a further skills' decline in the NRL, & the difference between the "good" NRL teams & "bad" teams" widened- with many blow-out losses.




2. sportingnews.com 12.3.18

Both S. Roach & B. Harrigan also believe there is insufficient talent in the NRL to expand to more than 16 teams- otherwise the quality of the NRL comp. would decline too much.

Roach said "One of the Sydney teams has to relocate", if the NRL wanted a new club in Perth or Brisbane.

 
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Bjo187

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A guy in my office had an interesting thought today, he thinks that GWS should have been Sydney, down to canberra and the riverina (ie. sydney souther NSW) and the Swans should have been sydney and northern nsw. He is from Sydney himself and tends to think Western Sydney will never truly commit to AFL (even western bulldogs in melbourne are a smaller club) and that the traditional rugby union areas should have been used as bases for spreading AFL in NSW, as well as canberra.
Therefore I am interested to know what areas swans fans traditionally come from and if there would be a similar market in and around sydney that could be tapped into that hasn't been yet?
 

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RedV3x

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A guy in my office had an interesting thought today, ?
Really ?
The Swans are basically a sweep from Eastern Suburbs, through North Shore to the hills.
The GWS are basically where the Swans aren't strong - western and southern.

He is from Sydney himself and tends to think Western Sydney will never truly commit to AFL
Really ?
GWS are already bigger than four NRL clubs.

even western bulldogs in melbourne are a smaller club
Really ? Absolutely no logic there.

traditional rugby union areas should have been used as bases for spreading AFL in NSW, as well as canberra.
Really ? Enlighten us to what are these RU areas ?

Therefore I am interested to know what areas swans fans traditionally come from and if there would be a similar market in and around sydney that could be tapped into that hasn't been yet?
Really ? Are you sure that it's not your "friend" you're talking about ?
The Swans revolve around the SCG and area the north.
Your friend should be able to verify that Manly don't to the SCG but Swans fans do.
Maybe that's why they're going to drop Manly following North Sydney.
GWS revolve around Homebush and areas South.
That is the setup as it exists now from junior to senior competition and marketing.
 
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Pippen94

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Really ?
The Swans are basically a sweep from Eastern Suburbs, through North Shore to the hills.
The GWS are basically where the Swans aren't strong - western and southern.



Really ?
GWS are already bigger than four NRL clubs.



Really ? Absolutely no logic there.



Really ? Enlighten us to what are these RU areas ?



Really ? Are you sure that it's not your "friend" you're talking about ?
The Swans revolve around the SCG and area the north.
Your friend should be able to verify that Manly don't to the SCG but Swans fans do.
Maybe that's why they're going to drop Manly following North Sydney.
GWS revolve around Homebush and areas South.
That is the setup as it exists now from junior to senior competition and marketing.
Ha - gws played in gf & there wasn't one jersey to be seen across city. Don't mistake limited game membership or inflated crowd numbers to support
 

Pippen94

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A guy in my office had an interesting thought today, he thinks that GWS should have been Sydney, down to canberra and the riverina (ie. sydney souther NSW) and the Swans should have been sydney and northern nsw. He is from Sydney himself and tends to think Western Sydney will never truly commit to AFL (even western bulldogs in melbourne are a smaller club) and that the traditional rugby union areas should have been used as bases for spreading AFL in NSW, as well as canberra.
Therefore I am interested to know what areas swans fans traditionally come from and if there would be a similar market in and around sydney that could be tapped into that hasn't been yet?
NRL is bigger than afl in all areas of Sydney. Afl has pockets of support in well heeled & culturally insular places like the Eastern Suburbs, Hill District & North Sydney. The theory that afl has stolen Rugby union support comes from this but Swan's chairman has confirmed NRL has grown support there.
 

Bjo187

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Really ?
The Swans are basically a sweep from Eastern Suburbs, through North Shore to the hills.
The GWS are basically where the Swans aren't strong - western and southern.



Really ?
GWS are already bigger than four NRL clubs.



Really ? Absolutely no logic there.



Really ? Enlighten us to what are these RU areas ?



Really ? Are you sure that it's not your "friend" you're talking about ?
The Swans revolve around the SCG and area the north.
Your friend should be able to verify that Manly don't to the SCG but Swans fans do.
Maybe that's why they're going to drop Manly following North Sydney.
GWS revolve around Homebush and areas South.
That is the setup as it exists now from junior to senior competition and marketing.
Not sure why the smartarse attitude, it was an interesting point of discussion.
 

Bjo187

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That’s a bold faced lie.



So I guess that means your Wanderers are the weakest supported club in Sydney then.
Funny you say that, I headed over to league unlimited to read thoughts about this new Brisbane side being talked about. Who pops up all the time but our old mate Pippen94, paying out on AFL everywhere and calling for it's demise. So more a league fan with a massive chip on his shoulder.

Pippen94.JPG
 

General Giant

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Funny you say that, I headed over to league unlimited to read thoughts about this new Brisbane side being talked about. Who pops up all the time but our old mate Pippen94, paying out on AFL everywhere and calling for it's demise. So more a league fan with a massive chip on his shoulder.

View attachment 1054430
Probably just Pip looking for support and some friendly faces. Enemy of my enemy etc.
 

General Giant

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RedV3x

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NRL is bigger than AFL in all areas of Sydney. .
Except in areas where AFL is bigger than NRL.

AFL has pockets of support in well heeled & culturally insular places like the Eastern Suburbs, Hill District & North Sydney.
NRL has pockets of support in less heeled & culturally insular places like ...(well I don't want to offend anybody).

The theory that AFL has stolen Rugby union support comes from this but Swan's chairman has confirmed NRL has grown support there.
And both NRL supporters are doing fine but are still a little confused.
 

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