A Third Team In Sydney - It's Only a Matter Of Time !!

[Colonial]

I've already done that way earlier in the thread.

However, the region north of the harbour (north shore & northern beaches) is what I'm advocating.

Swans have everything south of the harbour, Giants are west of Parramatta (which is actually close to half of Sydney), in principle, each club would have a third of the city to work within.

North Sydney is Swans heartland/territory. Can’t see them being ok with it.

 

[NYRB]

Living in Sydney, one thing a 3rd side in NSW has over a 3rd side in WA, is the money for me.

Money talks at the end of the day, and even as a neutral you can't be impressed with how much AFL is in the news and supported at grass roots level. WA fans are more passionate about the footy, but if there is a market to potentially have at least 2 or more games a week in Sydney, and even generate more 'noise' in league heartland, the AFL wouldn't rule out a 3rd team. Agree that the 3rd team would probably anywhere north of the harbour bridge...a team that represents : Manly, Mosman, Newcastle, Gosford, Hornsby, Macquarie Park, North Sydney , Chatswood etc.

One of the things about the GWS is them having to play their 3-4 games a year in Canberra.....which doesn't make it a real 'footy' culture in Sydney yet.

The Sydney Swans are the best supported club for me in NSW and by a fair margin.

 

[kranger]

However, the region north of the harbour (north shore & northern beaches) is what I'm advocating.

Swans have everything south of the harbour, Giants are west of Parramatta (which is actually close to half of Sydney), in principle, each club would have a third of the city to work within.

I like this idea.

With the Swans taking the southern region, it’s kind of tieing back into being the South’s again.

With the new northern team playing out of the SCG, given the proximity to Central Station, so everyone in the northern suburbs up to northern NSW can easily catch the train to games.

And then the new northern team play one game a year in Newcastle and Central Coast each. And the Swans take a game to Wollongong each year too. Helps build up the footy fields in NSW.

 

[NoobPie]

I've already done that way earlier in the thread.

However, the region north of the harbour (north shore & northern beaches) is what I'm advocating.

Swans have everything south of the harbour, Giants are west of Parramatta (which is actually close to half of Sydney), in principle, each club would have a third of the city to work within.

Fair enough. The north shore does seem to be Swans heartland though with as good a density of participation as anywhere else. The question is, how much more of an impact would adding a team there that the Swans haven't already had?

 

[NoobPie]

Living in Sydney, one thing a 3rd side in NSW has over a 3rd side in WA, is the money for me.

Money talks at the end of the day, and even as a neutral you can't be impressed with how much AFL is in the news and supported at grass roots level. WA fans are more passionate about the footy, but if there is a market to potentially have at least 2 or more games a week in Sydney, and even generate more 'noise' in league heartland, the AFL wouldn't rule out a 3rd team. Agree that the 3rd team would probably anywhere north of the harbour bridge...a team that represents : Manly, Mosman, Newcastle, Gosford, Hornsby, Macquarie Park, North Sydney , Chatswood etc.

One of the things about the GWS is them having to play their 3-4 games a year in Canberra.....which doesn't make it a real 'footy' culture in Sydney yet.

The Sydney Swans are the best supported club for me in NSW and by a fair margin.

OK....so if you were to go for this, perhaps call them the North Sydney Hunters?

 

[LordLucifer]

North Sydney is Swans heartland/territory. Can’t see them being ok with it.

I don't think they were particularly stoked about GWS coming in either but they can't have everything. Besides, they have had the majority of the metro area to themselves for many many years so they shouldn't be all sooky-la-la about that.

 

[NYRB]

West Coast , Brisbane and Adelaide had much of the state for them before their younger brothers joined the comp. Fremantle for instance , prior Eagles was a predominately Eagles territory . Now in WA, there is sort of a south-north divide as to who supports Eagles and Freo.

Rivalries are built over time and changing that supporting demographic will take time .A-League is another case in point , with Western Sydney Wanderers taking a large portion of Sydney FC fans, and MacArthur FC taking a lot of Wanderers fans.

 

[RedV3x]

In what way are any of these articles related to the topic?

The growth of Australian Football in and around Sydney is relevant.
The Sydney media obviously think that growth of Australian Football in and around Sydney is relevant
and also the apparent demise of rugby league in and around Sydney.
Of the the latter BBT believes there is a direct correlation whereas i believe there is a much slower correlation.
i.e. Sports rise and fall due to their own devices but if a sport does disappear that might produce a participation vacuum
which will be attempted to be filled along with a surplus of sponsorship and advertising etc over time - a generational thing.

 

[NoobPie]

West Coast , Brisbane and Adelaide had much of the state for them before their younger brothers joined the comp. Fremantle for instance , prior Eagles was a predominately Eagles territory . Now in WA, there is sort of a south-north divide as to who supports Eagles and Freo.

Rivalries are built over time and changing that supporting demographic will take time .A-League is another case in point , with Western Sydney Wanderers taking a large portion of Sydney FC fans, and MacArthur FC taking a lot of Wanderers fans.

The AFL examples you provide are all "second team in city" though, not third. The is strong evidence that, while adding a second can add healthy competition and arch rivalry, "diminishing returns" kicks in massively when adding a third team in.

Looking at the Swans best academy products all of Mills, Heeney, Campbell and Wicks would have been in this imagined northern clubs academy. The Swans are a powerhouse now. The problem with plonking a team in what of its existing heartland areas is you necessarily put that at risk

 

[RedV3x]

a team that represents : Manly, Mosman, Newcastle, Gosford, Hornsby, Macquarie Park, North Sydney , Chatswood etc.

Mosman, North Sydney and the hills are diehard Swans supporters along with the eastern suburbs.
Gosford to Newcastle would be better under "Newcastle".
Manly has gone from zero to premier division under the Giants banner.

One of the things about the GWS is them having to play their 3-4 games a year in Canberra.....which doesn't make it a real 'footy' culture in Sydney yet.

Yes, better to make GWS full-time Sydney and Canberra to Mcarthur as Rams territory.

 

[Colonial]

I don't think they were particularly stoked about GWS coming in either but they can't have everything. Besides, they have had the majority of the metro area to themselves for many many years so they shouldn't be all sooky-la-la about that.

They weren’t. They were against us.
The difference is though they never came out here to the west, where as North Sydney is smack bang in their bubble.

 

[RedV3x]

They weren’t. They were against us.

"They" being the club hierarchy that were fearful of losing infrastructure.
IMO, fans were welcoming.
Here in the west it was wanting a Sydney win.

The difference is though they never came out here to the west, where as North Sydney is smack bang in their bubble.

Actually, that is incorrect. Look at the records. The Crowds did come out to the big games but learnt that ANZ was a terrible stadium.
For the people in the eastern suburbs it was easy to get to ANZ.

 

[Colonial]

"They" being the club hierarchy that were fearful of losing infrastructure.
IMO, fans were welcoming.
Here in the west it was wanting a Sydney win.

Yep that’s who I mean by they. They will be even more so against a North Sydney side.

Actually, that is incorrect. Look at the records. The Crowds did come out to the big games but learnt that ANZ was a terrible stadium.
For the people in the eastern suburbs it was easy to get to ANZ.

Not talking crowds at ANZ. Talking about them actually coming out west to do clinics etc.
Never saw them. Never saw promotion. Grassroots etc. wasn’t until the Giants that things started happening at that level.

 

[Rob]

The AFL examples you provide are all "second team in city" though, not third. The is strong evidence that, while adding a second can add healthy competition and arch rivalry, "diminishing returns" kicks in massively when adding a third team in.

I'm not disagreeing with your point, but.....what evidence? It hasn't really been tried, certainly not in the AFL.
Are you thinking of the A League here?

 

[NoobPie]

I'm not disagreeing with your point, but.....what evidence? It hasn't really been tried, certainly not in the AFL.
Are you thinking of the A League here?

Fair point, the A League is probably the only relevant example which provides some evidence but not necessarily "strong" evidence of what happens when you add a third team. You could also point to a multitude more examples of two team arch rival cities in European soccer than triumvirates. The two biggest rivalries in Australian club sport by some distance now are the SA and WA AFL rivalries. The Big 4 vic rivalries don't com close despite the much longer histories.

On reflection though it relies more on (strong) reason. The second team gives you the rivalry and grabs the lowest "hanging fruit" in terms of a geographic, cultural or other fracture to build a second identity and a rivalry around. The third team needs to find a third niche which either doesn't exist or otherwise barely offers a foothold and, if anything, can only water down that existing two team rivalry.

 

[Cameron_Jezza]

They weren’t. They were against us.
The difference is though they never came out here to the west, where as North Sydney is smack bang in their bubble.

I don't think there is enough support.
Parts of Western Sydney has alot of people who don't care about sport, just getting into a selective school seems to be an obsession like no other.
My young son supports GWS passionately, but we are actually in the swans academy zone. I think it could help to even things out a bit within sydney between Swans and GWS.
They might in theory have access to equal populations, but I see the west being harder to convert than other suburbs.

 

[Canberra Pear]

I mentioned it earlier, but with a long-term view of Sydney, basing a third Sydney team at the Aerotropolis makes a lot of sense.

Sydney's "Metropolis of Three Cities" plan splits Sydney into three 30-minutes cities. We've already got teams at the centre of the red and blue areas, now the Aerotropolis will be the centre of the yellow area. The Aerotropolis is largely unbuilt so plenty of time to influence AFL facilities to be included.

Both the yellow and red areas will both have more than 1.5m people each by 2036, so plenty of population for GWS and the new team.

But Canberra needs to be the third "NSW" team first

 

[Bjo187]

Call the team Canberra SNSW - Rangers? Then can draw support from the riverina up to Newcastle. Colours blue, green, silver like the Seattle Seahawks.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Call the team Canberra SNSW - Rangers? Then can draw support from the riverina up to Newcastle. Colours blue, green, silver like the Seattle Seahawks.

View attachment 1253504

Green representing the "Bush Capital", blue representing Lake Burley Griffin?

Somebody mentioned a while back the Canberra Rams nickname, something like Riverina, ACT, Murray, South Coast (RAMS) but Rams isn't a good gender-neutral option for an eventual complementary AFLW team.

Newcastle might be a stretch too far. There's two AFL teams between Canberra and Newcastle. Always assumed GWS would take a game or two there eventually.

 

[LordLucifer]

I mentioned it earlier, but with a long-term view of Sydney, basing a third Sydney team at the Aerotropolis makes a lot of sense.

Sydney's "Metropolis of Three Cities" plan splits Sydney into three 30-minutes cities. We've already got teams at the centre of the red and blue areas, now the Aerotropolis will be the centre of the yellow area. The Aerotropolis is largely unbuilt so plenty of time to influence AFL facilities to be included.

Both the yellow and red areas will both have more than 1.5m people each by 2036, so plenty of population for GWS and the new team.

But Canberra needs to be the third "NSW" team first

View attachment 1252907

Whilst the talk of Newcastle is nice, that is a frontier that will take even longer to breakdown so the AFL is better placed to grow by stealth.

Canberra should have its own stand alone team in addition to the three Sydney based clubs.

The Harbour & Parramatta river out to Parramatta itself should be the dividing line between the Swans in the south and the new entity in the north with a north-south line straight through Parramatta being the dividing line for the west of Sydney for GWS.

In case there are posters who are not aware, Parramatta is the geographic centre of Sydney.

 

[flamingEMBERS]

Green representing the "Bush Capital", blue representing Lake Burley Griffin?

Somebody mentioned a while back the Canberra Rams nickname, something like Riverina, ACT, Murray, South Coast (RAMS) but Rams isn't a good gender-neutral option for an eventual complementary AFLW team.

Newcastle might be a stretch too far. There's two AFL teams between Canberra and Newcastle. Always assumed GWS would take a game or two there eventually.

Agree regarding gender/sex neutral team name.

Makes me laugh though, Melbourne (formerly Bulleen) Boomers I’m the WNBL

 

[BringBackTorps]

In what way are any of these articles related to the topic?

It is very widely acknowledged that the AFLW created a massive boom, generally, in female GR AF club & school comp. nos.

When the Swans get their own team in late 2022, there will be a major boost in GR female AF nos. in NSW . GWS has a much lower profile in NSW, cf the Swans- thus female AF in NSW will be turbocharged by the Swans' AFLW team.

The SMH's M. Knox (a strong RU & RL fan) says, cf AF "...participation-wise, the NRL knows it is losing the contest...[AFLW] looms intimidatingly over the 6-team NRLW", & is concerned over the growth of AF in NSW & Qld.
Female fans, players, & mothers (the latter with their concerns over RL injuries) are being highly sought by both AF & RL- AF is much more successful in this contest in NSW, ACT, & Qld.

In the video, T. Harley lists the many benefits that the Swans' AFL team will deliver for AF in Sydney etc.
Harley also said Sydney is already "the fastest growing market in Australia for youth girls' football" [(in % terms, not raw nos).

The Swans have the highest jumper sponsorship of any code in Australia, amongst other very strong sponsorship- it can be expected that the Swans' current plan to attract major corporate sponsorship of its AFLW team will be very successful. Another reason strong female AF growth, therefore, is very likely.



NoobPie said [/QUOTE]
Really don't know what a third team would do beyond either flop or canabalise
[/QUOTE]
It is a basic principle in business that if one has a very successful, & objectively competitive & attractive product, a company, to maximise its current & future profits, influence & growth, should move into compatible, large & wealthy areas where it currently has a minimal presence.
One does not allow a competitor to increase its profits & influence "unhindered"- as this would allow this competitor to, eventually, move into/undermine/attack your strong areas.

One does not need to be a graduate of Harvard Business School to appreciate the principles of Competitive Advantage & Market Growth. It is essential for businesses to develop/maximise these advantages, to move into/undermine/attack your direct competitors (primarily, other contact sports in Aust.) & exploit their weaknesses (re RL & RU, its male contact nos. are collapsing in NSW, ACT, & SEQ).

Refer also to my reply to NYRB below, re NSW increasing its GDP by 2.5 times by 2061, cf 2021; & Sydney will have a $1 trillion+ dollar economy then, both in 2021 $ (& be the first Aust. city to have a $1 trillion economy).

I think BBT assumes that growth in the game inevitably will translate into a third team at some point [Yes, Sydney 3 is inevitable in a rich, highly strategic mega city]

There are currently perhaps 15 players listed in the AFL from non traditional AF parts of NSW. There are 90 odd players on two AFL club lists. So we are decades away from having to worry about that.

No one is suggesting a 3rd team in Sydney is, or should be, imminent. It will only occur after GWS regularly has lockout crowds at Giants Stadium.

Living in Sydney, one thing a 3rd side in NSW has over a 3rd side in WA, is the money for me.

Money talks at the end of the day [Of course!] and even as a neutral you can't be impressed with how much AFL is in the news and supported at grass roots level. WA fans are more passionate about the footy, but if there is a market to potentially have at least 2 or more games a week in Sydney, and even generate more 'noise' in league heartland, the AFL wouldn't rule out a 3rd team. [Yes, WA3 is not "expansion"- Freo games are a long way from selling out every week; & Perth stadium can easily be expanded- deeper foundations already built in- to 70k capacity]

By 2061, NSW will have a c. $1.4 trillion economy, & Sydney will be the first Aust. city to have a $1 trillion economy (both in 2021 $).

Sydney was estimated by the ABS in 2019 (pre covid) to have a pop. of 8.5m in 2050- impossible for the AFL to ignore.

The 2021 new prediction is NSW will have a pop. by 2061 of c. 11.1m

Living longer, more part-time work and a booming population: NSW in 2061

The state will boast the country’s first trillion-dollar economy, worth about $1.4 trillion by 2060-61, and part-time work will make up 33 per cent of the workforce.

www.smh.com.au

CEDA - New South Wales expected to be first trillion-dollar state economy in Australia

www.ceda.com.au

As a business in the world's most competitive sports' environment, the AFL must "follow the money" ie expand with a 3rd team in very wealthy, powerful/ influential, & large Sydney (which has now c. 50% of the top ASX300 company HQ's. in Aust.; all the major MSM HQ's; & c. 60% of all ad revenues are generated from Sydney-based HQ's- Sydney also has the highest Prime Time hourly ad rates in Aust.).

It would simply be too great of a risk for the AFL not to expand to a 3rd team in Sydney some time in the next 2 decades.

With the new northern team playing out of the SCG, given the proximity to Central Station, so everyone in the northern suburbs up to northern NSW can easily catch the train to games

It is not easy- or "timely'- for fans in nthn NSW to travel to Sydney for AFL games. The AFL, in the near future, must schedule AFL games in Newcastle.
AF is relatively weak in the Newcastle/Hunter, & Central Coast, regions- but GR club & school comp. nos. are growing there.

The growth of Australian Football in and around Sydney is relevant.
The Sydney media obviously think that growth of Australian Football in and around Sydney is relevant
and also the apparent demise of rugby league in and around Sydney

Your comments are incontrovertible.

Re NSW, & SEQ also, there have in recent years been about 60+ comments from NRL officials (inc. from P. V'landys, A. Abdo, T. Greenberg, P. Beattie, & J. Grant), NSW & Qld. State RL officials, MSM RL experts etc. about the growth of the AFL & GR AF in NSW, ACT, & Qld; & the decline there in male contact RL nos.
Ditto, many comments from RA & State RU officials, & MSM RU experts; & a few comments from MSM soccer experts, ex-soccer officials, & elite ex-players

Yes, better to make GWS full-time Sydney and Canberra to Mcarthur as Rams territory.

Canberra (very influential area, with Australia's highest median income, & recession-proof large Public Service), together with SW & Sthn. Sydney, Wollongong/Illawarra, & South Coast NSW, will have a population of c. 1.8m in 2050.

For these reasons, I suspect Tasmania will be the 19th team c. 2025; & there will be no additional team, until a combined SW Sydney Canberra team becomes the 20th team. C. seven games in SW Sydney, c. seven in Canberra, & two- three in Wollongong pa (there will always be some impecunious Melb. teams wishing to transfer Home games to Canberra & Wollongong etc.).

 

[NYRB]

Another thing to make mention is the commute distance as BringBackTorps mentioned. the GWS Giants women play in Blacktown and given they were the only NSW team in the AFLW prior to 2022, it could be up to an hour commute if you wanted to see womens footy in NSW. I found Sydney's demographics , people tend to stick in their geographical areas.(where the NRL teams are formed is almost a boundary of where potential AFL teams could be located). When games were played at ANZ Stadium- you often heard moans and whingeing about why games were played out there. You want to make the game accessible to as many of the populated areas of NSW as possible. I think the NSW teams in particular shuffling a game or two outside their own traditional backyards may not be a bad thing.

If we look at populations alone, geelong is ranked 12th in terms of highest population, you have towns such as: Newcastle-Maitland, Central Coast, Wollongong and Canberra who probably have the population to support teams as well. And before everyone yells on the bandwagon and says 'there aren't traditional AFL markets'. it's about growing the game. The money is there and is a relatively large untapped market. off the top of my head, they have played pre-season games in Newcastle already and even Albury. The market for these towns is just as a great as : Cairns, Ballarat, Darwin, Alice Springs and Launceston. All of the towns just listed are currently where AFL matches are played, whats to say the NSW towns couldn't do it as well? For me its a a matter of time.

Peter V'Landy's and the NRL contigent view AFL as a major threat on league heartland, especially in QLD. He keeps on bringing up about the topic of 'grass roots' and 'rusted on AFL states'. They ridicule the AFL but at the same time probably realise they have the wood over them in terms of coverage of the game in this nation and how they are run.

I think having 3 teams in NSW, run on a 22 round format, you could genuinely have 36 games from the Sydney Swans, Giants, and a 3rd NSW/ACT team in NSW a season. And even if every team played 1-2 games in these towns (away from the city)- it should be the way forward to promoting the game in the best interest of NSW footy. (or even pre-season games could be added to the schedule)

 

[RedV3x]

When games were played at ANZ Stadium- you often heard moans and whingeing about why games were played out there.

That was mainly due to the stadium itself and not it's location.
Homebush was easy to get to if you had access to a railway line
but bus connections, especially on the north side, were poor.

Peter V'Landy's and the NRL contigent view AFL as a major threat on league heartland, especially in QLD.

It's like bemoaning the fact that wine drinking is becoming more popular at the expense of beer drinking.
You can promote your product but attacking a competitor's product is counter-productive.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

I think having 3 teams in NSW, run on a 22 round format, you could genuinely have 36 games from the Sydney Swans, Giants, and a 3rd NSW/ACT team in NSW a season. And even if every team played 1-2 games in these towns (away from the city)- it should be the way forward to promoting the game in the best interest of NSW footy. (or even pre-season games could be added to the schedule)

If I was part of the AFL HQ board now, in regards to the long-term expansion strategy of the AFL Men's & AFL Women's elite competitions, I would be planning further ahead for a 25 round "National" Competition with 24 clubs in total by 2050 instead, with every state (besides Tasmania) having a minimum of 3 teams, while the ACT, NT & Tasmania having one team each, as shown down below:

2050 Men's/Women's Australian Rules Football League Season
Adelaide Crows (SA) | Brisbane Lions (QLD) | Canberra Kookaburras (ACT) | Carlton Blues (VIC) | Collingwood Magpies (VIC) | Darwin Thunder (NT) | Essendon Bombers (VIC) | Footscray Bulldogs (VIC) | Fremantle Dockers (WA) | Geelong Cats (VIC) | Gold Coast Suns (QLD) | Hawthorn Hawks (VIC) | Melbourne Demons (VIC) | North Queensland Crocodiles (QLD) | Northern Sydney Kangaroos (NSW) | Norwood Scorpions (SA) | Perth Rebels (WA) | Port Adelaide Power (SA) | Richmond Tigers (VIC) | St. Kilda Saints (VIC) | Sydney Swans (NSW) | Tasmania Devils (TAS) | West Coast Eagles (WA) | Western Sydney Giants (NSW)

Victoria: 9 teams - Carlton (1897) | Collingwood (1897) | Essendon (1897) | Footscray (1925) | Geelong (1897) | Hawthorn (1925) | Melbourne (1897) | Richmond (1908) | St. Kilda (1897)
New South Wales: 3 teams - Northern Sydney (2036) | Sydney (1982) | Western Sydney (2012)
Queensland: 3 teams - Brisbane (1987) | Gold Coast (2011) | North Queensland (2048)
South Australia: 3 teams - Adelaide (1991) | Norwood (2046) | Port Adelaide (1997)
Western Australia: 3 teams - Fremantle (1995) | Perth (2028) | West Coast (1987)
Australian Capital Territory: 1 team - Canberra (2027)
Northern Territory: 1 team - Darwin (2038)
Tasmania: 1 team - Tasmania (2025)

Each club would play 25 matches as mentioned before (12x home matches & 12x away matches) + (1x alternative international home match swapped every two years), which would also include playing the other teams in their state four times (2x home matches & 2x away matches), resulting in a minimum of 6 derby matches for each state altogether, every year.

After the regular season has finished, the top 10 highest placed teams would commence to the finals series, in which the top 6 teams get a bye in Week 1 while the clubs ranked at 7th - 10th would face each other in a wildcard weekend (7th vs. 10th / 8th vs. 9th) to determine who plays 5th & 6th in week 2, before the final series continues as it is currently in the AFL Men's Competition.

Doing the maths at the end of the season, 311 matches would be played throughout the year (increase of 104 matches in 2021), with each state (minus Tasmania) hosting a minimum of 36 home matches every year, with Victoria hosting 108 home matches and ACT, NT & Tasmania hosting 12 home matches as well (excluding finals).

This national future competition blueprint & strategy (as shown above) would not only greatly increase the exposure of the sport on a Nationalised level in many ways such as increased broadcasting, club, media & stadium revenue (to name a few), but also more specifically massively increase the AFL's positioning of the sport in NRL-based states such as the ACT, NSW & QLD and improve the participation rates of players from those states, from the grassroots to the professional levels of both the Men's & Women's game, while weakening the Rugby League foothold as a result.