A Third Team In Sydney - It's Only a Matter Of Time !!

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I remember around the turn of the century I went on a school camp to Canberra.

Basically once we passed the border into NSW from VIC there were no footy goal posts to be seen anywhere until we crossed back into Victoria on the way home. Cricket ovals and rugby posts pretty much all the way.

I do wonder how it would compare to today if I were to make the same trip.
 

HavUEvaSeenTheRain

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I remember around the turn of the century I went on a school camp to Canberra.

Basically once we passed the border into NSW from VIC there were no footy goal posts to be seen anywhere until we crossed back into Victoria on the way home. Cricket ovals and rugby posts pretty much all the way.

I do wonder how it would compare to today if I were to make the same trip.
I’m not sure what way you went but there’s always been very strong football areas between Victoria and Canberra
 

General Giant

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And they will get there way all the SANZAAR nations are broke the European’s don’t want relegation they will get way as financially they can afford to back out and the SANZAAR nations can’t
Exactly. Which is ridiculous.

Without allowing the 2nd tier nations to aspire to grow why would they bother?
 

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Seedsfan

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So they made a profit in 2017 ( a Lions tour year) and a loss in 2018. That doesn't make them broke. The previous Lions tour was 2005.

How many years of big losses have they racked up? What is their debt profile??
Pretty sure the last season before that the posted a profit was the year they hosted the WC.
 

madmug

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Exactly. Which is ridiculous.

Without allowing the 2nd tier nations to aspire to grow why would they bother?
Being an AR site, So whats the difference with the AFL? Support perennially struggling 'established' clubs, pick & bankroll previously failed sports areas, basically ignore grass roots (except if they can ring a few draft picks out of it), & ignore '2nd' tier areas which have a long & fruitful AR history & already spend on AFL FIFO clubs. FK RU. How about ARF.
 

General Giant

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Being an AR site, So whats the difference with the AFL? Support perennially struggling 'established' clubs, pick & bankroll previously failed sports areas, basically ignore grass roots (except if they can ring a few draft picks out of it), & ignore '2nd' tier areas which have a long & fruitful AR history & already spend on AFL FIFO clubs. FK RU. How about ARF.
It's a different type of comp.

Based around National teams than clubs.

Basically just turns the tests they already play into a competition.

As for the rest of your message it's a bit of a rant(grassroots bad when it's not your grassroots?).
I'm not a fan of rugby at the moment for killing of the West of Sydney and going back to its private schools, but it is what it is. They will lose out in the and.
 

madmug

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It's a different type of comp.

Based around National teams than clubs.

Basically just turns the tests they already play into a competition.

As for the rest of your message it's a bit of a rant(grassroots bad when it's not your grassroots?).
I'm not a fan of rugby at the moment for killing of the West of Sydney and going back to its private schools, but it is what it is. They will lose out in the and.
You should keep up. Victorian country leagues too are pissed with the AFL's one way traffic.
 

HavUEvaSeenTheRain

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You should keep up. Victorian country leagues too are pissed with the AFL's one way traffic.
I live Swan Hill now and we are probably one or two years away from losing a league and there is absolutely nothing the AFL can do about it. Declining population/aging is all that is to blame.
In the bigger leagues having too much money is the biggest problem because it all just goes to players. They brought in a salary cap but everyone knows it is not working in the slightest. Personally I think money have made these bigger clubs/leagues too professional now and the fun has been dragged out of it. Like cricket now juniors seem happy to play up until an age that they realise they are no good and then just give it away. That I see as more a society problem but also some local clubs are to blame for not making it fun enough. No doubt there are things the AFL could do better but most country areas that are struggling have very little to do with lack of AFL support.
 

Seedsfan

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A world league can/could still handle that.
It could but it gets a bit big if it’s more than 12 teams and the smaller nations if they are in won’t bring in the same revenue.

I think with all international sports world bodies should have more control when it comes to distributing revenue so all nations have a better chance of competing on field a bit like the AFL does
 

General Giant

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You should keep up. Victorian country leagues too are pissed with the AFL's one way traffic.
I bet the Vics are upset that money is spent elsewhere.
They still think the non Vic clubs should be 10 to 18th and only produce extra kids for their clubs.

Interesting the media is only outraged when Vic clubs close their doors. But anywhere else and they couldn't care less.
 

Seedsfan

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I bet the Vics are upset that money is spent elsewhere.
They still think the non Vic clubs should be 10 to 18th and only produce extra kids for their clubs.

Interesting the media is only outraged when Vic clubs close their doors. But anywhere else and they couldn't care less.
No, in Victoria we still produce more than half the talent pool so obviously we deserve money getting spent at a grass roots level. Money is being stripped out of footy here to pay for other things. I know in WA and SA the state bodies own the AFL license and use some of the income generated off them to develop the game in the state.

I think the pathways in Victoria have become messy and complicated we need to move to an AFL reserves as that’s what is best for all clubs and then we need to revive the state league. I would be happy for the AFL to tax some of the Vic clubs to fund it
 

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flamingEMBERS

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No, in Victoria we still produce more than half the talent pool so obviously we deserve money getting spent at a grass roots level. Money is being stripped out of footy here to pay for other things. I know in WA and SA the state bodies own the AFL license and use some of the income generated off them to develop the game in the state.

I think the pathways in Victoria have become messy and complicated we need to move to an AFL reserves as that’s what is best for all clubs and then we need to revive the state league. I would be happy for the AFL to tax some of the Vic clubs to fund it
No thanks on the AFL reserves. I’d rather my clubs players play men in the wafl than a glorified colts competition. Might make sense in Victoria but not in the wa or sa
 

BringBackTorps

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1. GWS has exceeded 30,000 members in 2019. This is an excellent result- they had NO members 8 years ago, western Sydney (population c. 2,100,000+) was a barren area for GR AF then. Approx. 5,000 are ACT based. C. 50% are 1-2 game members (minimum membership is c. $50). 25%, 3-5 game members.

Giants CEO D. Matthews said "Sydney is the most competitive sporting market in the world". The Giants have the second highest Club membership, of any sport, in NSW (second only to the Swans).


2. The Allies (combined NSW/ACT/Qld./Tas./NT) defeated the perennial powerhouse Vic Metro in the national U 18 Championships, 11.4 to 10.8- the only other time they have done this, AFAIK, was in 2017, when they defeated Vic Metro by 3 points.

IIRC, 10 players in the 2019 game playing Vic Metro in Geelong were from NSW & ACT- & Vic. Metro had 2 players who many are expecting to be picked 1 & 2 in the 2019 National Draft.


In an earlier game, of the 22 players in the Allies team in round 1, 12 were from NSW & ACT. The Allies were flogged by Vic Country in Launceston, but many players in this team were not included in the team that defeated Vic Metro- team familiarity is, of course, a problem for the dispersed Allies' team.


3. These figures provide a snapshot of GR AF growth in the Sydney GWS Zone, & growth in the Swans' Sydney Zone. 2011 jnr figures were much lower.

2014 GWS Sydney Zone 10 U12 boys' Comp. teams
2014 nil U12 girls' teams (in fact, no girls' Comp. teams in any age groups)
2019 GWS Sydney Zone 18 U12 boys' Comp. teams
2019 GWS Sydney Zone 11 U13 girls' Comp. teams (nil U 12s)

2014 Swans' Sydney Zone 32 U12 boys' Comp. teams
2014 nil U12 girls' teams
2019 Swans' Sydney Zone 45 U12 boys' Comp. teams
2019 Swans' Sydney Zone 28 U12 girls' Comp. teams

Other competition age groups, in both Sydney Zones, have followed similar trajectories- but biggest growth is in the youngest players.
There are no comps. for 5-8 y.o players, only Auskick- which is also having strong growth.

2014 Sydney GPS, CAS, ISA private schools- nil AF U12 boys' school Comp. teams
2019 Sydney GPS, CAS, ISA- 17 AF U12 boys' school Comp. teams
(The above does not include the Sydney Catholic school system AF teams. Also, I could not obtain accurate figures for U12 girls' school teams- where school girls' comps., for all ages, commenced in 2018)


4. The Canberra Region Rugby League covers ACT, & includes adjoining NSW areas (eg Queanbeyan, Goulburn, Yass etc.). It is experiencing male GR decline.
In 2019, it has an U16 division (where players have boys' bodies)- but the next age group is U19 (where many players have large bodies). There are no U17 or U18 GR RL comps. in 2019- extraordinary for such a large population area, c.510,000 +, in a RL stronghold.

CRRL
2018 U15-11 male teams, U16 8 teams, U18 6 teams, Youth League (U19 or U20?) 6 teams
2019 U15- 8 male teams, U16 11 teams, U19 7 teams


In contrast, ACT GR male jnr AF comp. nos. are close to record highs.

Also, the sthn. NSW town of Wagga & district (population only c. 80,000+) is not part of AFL ACT comps.
The Wagga town & district have c. 12 adult AF teams (6 Seniors & 6 Reserves), 8 U15 male comp. teams, the Farrer League & Riverina Leagues have 8 U 17.5 male teams.
The 2019 Farrer League has 18 adult male teams (9 Seniors & 9 Reserves). The Riverina League also has 18 adult teams (9 seniors & 9 Reserves).




EDIT:
My error in point 1 above.
About 50% of GWS members have been members for 1-2 years only, & 25% have been members for 3-5 years.
With 3 more home games, an increase on the current 30,038 members can be expected.
 
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TWLS

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Good finds BBT,
But we are coming from a long way back - In 1915 in Sydney the NSW Footy League stuffed up an opportunity to get a long term lease/ownership on an fully benefit enclosed Erskineville Oval thus gifting the Sydney scene to the other codes.
Our game just survived but was never in a position financially again to challenge, and the ANFC/VFL continued to supply some funding during this period from the propaganda fund until the war ended in 1918.
People today ignore history at their peril.
So here we are 104 years later still trying to get into the Sydney market in a bigger way after only seriously re-entering the grassroots market in about 2000 and all of the progress since has only occurred in a 19 year period.
Based on that history it looks like another 20 years to go to establish another AFL team.
 

General Giant

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1. GWS has exceeded 30,000 members in 2019. This is an excellent result- they had NO members 8 years ago, western Sydney (population c. 2,100,000+) was a barren area for GR AF then. Approx. 5,000 are ACT based. C. 50% are 1-2 game members (minimum membership is c. $50). 25% 3-5 game members.


2. The Allies defeated the perrenial powerhouse Vic Metro in the national U 18 Championships, 11.4 to 10.8. The only other time they have done this, AFAIK, was in 2017, when they defeated Vic metro by 3 points.


3. These figures provide a snapshot of GR AF growth in the Sydney GWS Zone, & growth in the Swans' Sydney Zone. 2011 figures were much lower.

2014 GWS Sydney Zone 10 U12 boys' Comp. teams
2014 nil girls' teams (in fact, no girls' Comp. teams in any age groups)
2019 GWS Sydney Zone 18 U12 boys' Comp. teams
2019 GWS Sydney Zone 11 U13 girls' Comp. teams (nil U 12s)

2014 Swans' Sydney Zone 32 U12 boys' Comp. teams
2014 nil U12 girls' teams
2019 Swans' Sydney Zone 45 U12 boys' Comp. teams
2019 Swans' Sydney Zone 28 U12 girls' Comp. teams

Other age groups, in both Sydney Zones, have followed similar trajectories

2014 Sydney GPS, CAS, ISA nil U12 boys' school Comp. teams
2019 Sydney GPS, CAS, ISA 17 U12 boys' school Comp. teams
(I could not obtain accurate figures for U12 girls' school teams)


4. The Canberra Region Rugby League covers ACT, & includes significant SW NSW areas (eg Quaenbeyan, Goulburn, Yass etc.).It is experiencing male GR decline.
In 2019,after U16 (where players have boys' bodies), the next age group is U19 (where many players have large bodies) There are no U17 or U18 GR RL comps.- extraordinary for such a large population area, c.510,000 +

CRRL
2018 U15-11 male teams, U16 8 teams, U18 6 teams, Youth League (U19 or U20?) 6 teams
2019 U15- 8 male teams, U16 11 teams, U19 7 teams


In contrast, ACT GR jnr AF comp. nos. are close to record highs.

Also, the sthn. NSW Wagga District (population c.80,000+) has c. 12 adult AF teams (6 Seniors & 6 Reserves), 8 U15 male comp. teams, the Farrer League has 5 U17.5 male teams. The 2019 Farrer League has 18 adult male teams (9 Seniors & 9 Reserves)



Great info mate.
 

BringBackTorps

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1.SMH 19.7.19

Article reveals some of the good work GWS is performing in western Sydney's very large migrant population- a large % which, prior to GWS, had virtually no direct contact (and possibly) understanding of AF. GR AF is having significant growth in WS since GWS was formed.

Conversely, the Auburn snr male AF team in WS, who had mainly middle eastern players, folded about 2015 ( My understanding is that it was probably due to internal dissension, & some poor onfield behaviour by a few players).


2. The NSW & Qld. clubs are struggling to retain players/compete with the corporate riches available to players in AFL clubs clubs in Vic. & WA. In Melb. & Perth, there are, currently, more lucrative player third party deals, & post career corporate opportunities, for players.


Sydney has, arguably, the strongest corporate scene in Australia- & it is imperative that the AFL, & players, increases its market share of the riches available there.
Also, it is my understanding that advertisers pay the highest for prime time TV in Sydney, cf. similar times in Melbourne- &, certainly, Sydney gets higher advertising $ cf. other parts of Aust.

Sydney, Australia's wealthiest city, will, according to the ABS, have a population of about 8,000,000 by 2050. It will be TOO RISKY for the AFL if it does not have a 3rd team in Sydney in the next 20 years- probably created after GWS regularly obtains lockout crowds.

3. The average weight of professional RU players has increased by 12 stone since 1987, & the average professional weight is now about 16 stone (at least in the UK?). The 2019 RU World Cup teams are expected to have the largest, average weight.
World Rugby is concerned about safety, the increase in velocity of collisions, & wants to reduce the number of collisions & tackles- which is causing increased injury rates. "Many believe (RU- my words) has become overly obsessed with power...".

Average weights have also increased considerably in the NRL, where there are now fewer light weight players (but the 2016 NRL decision to reduce the no. of interchanges to 8 per team, per game should increase the number of light weight, skilled players- who will excel later in games, when heavier players tire).

The AFL, also, has a record no. of collision/tackling/bump/push injuries- & S. Hocking has stated he wants the record no. of tackles in games to be reduced (now a total of c. 140 per game; in the 1980's about 20 per game per team, 40 in TOTAL!).

The major increase in size of professional RU & RL players should, IMO, make AF an increasingly popular choice for very athletic, "pro aspiring" Euro. teenagers in NSW, ACT, & Qld. over the next few decades. Not all NSW etc. teenagers will want to spend a considerable time in the gym bulking up, to compete safely & successfully at a professional level.

 
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robbieando

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3. The average weight of professional RU players has increased by 12 stone since 1987, & the average professional weight is now about 16 stone (at least in the UK?).
12 stones is 76 kg that is not even close to correct. The article you sourced from stated it was 2 stones which is 12 kg and is understandable considering Union only went professional in 1995. Heck even AFL would have an average weight increase since 1987 because of the move to full time training.

The major increase in size of professional RU & RL players should, IMO, make AF an increasingly popular choice for very athletic, "pro aspiring" Euro. teenagers in NSW, ACT, & Qld. over the next few decades. Not all NSW etc. teenagers will want to spend a considerable time in the gym bulking up, to compete safely & successfully at a professional level.
So because World Rugby are concerned about the increase in size and resulting impact, there is nothing to worry about from the AFL's similar concern? Double standard much
 

BringBackTorps

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12 stones is 76 kg that is not even close to correct. The article you sourced from stated it was 2 stones which is 12 kg and is understandable considering Union only went professional in 1995.
So because World Rugby are concerned about the increase in size and resulting impact, there is nothing to worry about from the AFL's similar concern? Double standard much[No]
2 stone, not 12- typo (my link above said 2 stone)
No "double standard". I referred, above, to the record no. of collision/bump/push/tackle injuries in the AFL; & S. Hocking wants to reduce tackle nos. in the AFL. It is, obviously, a concern.

The average size & power of professional RL & RU players are much greater than players in the AFL; &, for decades, there have been concerns in jnr GR RU & RL about very large weight disparities/injury issues.

Re RU
"It has become a nasty, dangerous, gladiatorial sport, played by men with too much muscle and too little skill".
 
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robbieando

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2 stone, not 12- typo (my link above said 2 stone)
No "double standard". I referred, above, to the record no. of collision/bump/push/tackle injuries in the AFL; & S. Hocking wants to reduce tackle nos. in the AFL. It is, obviously, a concern.

The average size & power of professional RL & RU players are much greater than players in the AFL; &, for decades, there have been concerns in jnr GR RU & RL about very large weight disparities/injury issues.
Its a double standard, you just don't choose to see it because you hide behind "weight" differences.

Average weight is up in the AFL, A FACT you ignore and if the record number of tackle injuries is something the AFL is looking to reduce, why would parents push their children to our code over either Rugby code where impact injuries would still be an issue?

"It has become a nasty, dangerous, gladiatorial sport, played by men with too much muscle and too little skill".
Your quoting someone who is more concerned about the "vulgarity" of Union than any physical risk to their children. So nice use of context there.

A third team in Sydney isn't dependent on the decline of Junior or Club Rugby. Thinking that it is, is pure delusion
 

BringBackTorps

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Since Channel 9 stated a week ago that the NRL would be better off with 1 less NRL team (almost certainly from Sydney), AND should start a second team in Brisbane, there has been much speculation as to how the NRL will evolve from the next Broadcast Rights agreement (after 2022).
Manly & Cronulla, for those experts in RL who advocate less Sydney teams, seem to be the most likely candidates for relocation, or merging with another Sydney club.

WWOS 4.9.19

Both NRL legends A. Johns & B. Fittler believe the NRL is not able to expand beyond 16 teams after the Rights $ agreement ends.
A reason A. Johns gave for continuing to retain the 16 team structure was "...Less kids playing the game" (referring to male contact RL nos., which are significantly contracting- & not being able to maintain the NRL comp.'s current quality if expansion is pursued).



(then go to 26 minute 45 seconds mark for expansion/relocation discussion)



WWOS 4.9.19

P. Gould, P. Gallen, P. Stirling, A. Webster etc. also provide their interesting views on the post 2022 future of the NRL competition. Channel 9 is now saying the NRL shouldn't expand beyond 16 teams- can it expand?

P. Gould said

Re the market research the AFL had conducted in Sydney "...an ANZ boss said to me they (AFL- my word) know more about rugby league than rugby league knows about itself".
He also said "...licenced clubs (Leagues clubs, who provide major funding for some Sydney NRL clubs, & GR RL- my words) days are numbered...the majority of clubs are trading beyond their means... are insolvent...depends on the meaning of insolvent...GWS will be a juggernaut...at the moment it only attracts 12,000...it will win a premiership in the next 4 to 5 years, then things change remarkably...".






WWOS 24.3.19

NRL CEO T. Greenberg said that moving a Sydney team was a serious consideration.

P. Gallen said
"There is not enough playing talent to have another 2 teams in the competition...".

Re a possible expansion team, Gallen also said
"I don't think a team being terrible for 20 years would last in the NRL. AFL's a little bit different it's like a religion to them, they're so entrenched in it. It's just not the same in rugby league...".


IMO the NRL would benefit greatly if it expanded to Perth, & added a 2nd team in Brisbane. A large increase in Ratings, & broadcast $ from 2022- & a net increase in crowds.
However, it would likely need to merge or relocate at least 1 NRL club in Sydney, probably 2- which could open up further potential for the AF in Sydney, where it is having very good GR participant nos. growth.

EDIT:

On Foxtel NRL 360 on 3.9.19, both P. Rothfield & P. Kent said they were both opposed to any reduction in Sydney NRL clubs- but approve of a 2nd Brisbane team.

P. Kent said, if there was a reduction in Sydney teams "...you start to surrender your footprint in Sydney to other codes...you will, it will happen...".

Rothfield also said the 2 broadcasters want a 2nd team in Brisbane; &, if necessary, the GC Titans should be closed down, or relocated to Brisbane to create it (implying, also, there are insufficient nos. of skilled, new players for a 17th team).

P. Badel, Courier Mail, said the Titans would strongly oppose an additional NRL club being created in Brisbane...."disastrous for the Titans".

 
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