A Third Team In Sydney - It's Only a Matter Of Time !!

Aussie in exile

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1. It is too commercially risky for the AFL not to have a strong market share in Sydney, population c. 8,000,000, by 2050. The AFL has NO choice but to, eventually (perhaps c. 2035), have 3rd team in wealthy & influential Sydney.

Historically, the hourly rate of prime time advertising in Sydney is the most expensive in Australia- more than Melbourne, even though the populations have become very close. The AFL must capture a much higher % of these Sydney premium $ rates- failure to do so "enriches/empowers" its sporting competitors, who will then be more able to attack the AFL.
Sydney will indefinitely retain its higher advertising status over Melbourne, even when programs have similar ratings in both cities (ie Sydney has the most valuable advertising "per 1000 person rating unit" in Australia- because Sydney property prices has given it a greater median wealth than Melbourne).

I have not been able to locate the exact costs of Aust. advertising rates per 1000 people, for each capital city. This link, however, re USA rates, explains the reasoning for advertisers paying higher rates in different cities.
"Television advertising is priced on a Cost-Per-Thousand (CPM) basis, which is the cost for your ad to be seen by 1,000 people. The CPM varies widely, depending on a few different factors, the biggest of which is location (both my emphases)".


At the opposite end of desirability for advertisers is the Tas. market- it is all Regional (ie less valuable cf. metro), & has the 2nd lowest (to the NT) per capita median wealth in Aust.
Tas. will, however, probably be granted soon a provisional licence to join the AFL, because the AFL desires to restore its once fabled VFL/AFL recruitment goldmine of champions/great players (assuming its Bid can convince the AFL it can sustain revenues of $40,000,000 pa).

The AFL must regain its status (held until the 1980's, & intro of Canberra Raiders NRL) as the most popular code in Canberra, Aust.'s centre of power: via a South Sydney Canberra AFL team.
Canberra, considered a Regional advertising market, also has Aust.'s highest median wages (due to its large no. of well paid public servants).



2. This link is a snapshot revealing the NSW female GR AF significant growth in 2018 "...NSW alone seeing 18,000 new female players joining the ranks".
(For AF, most of this 18,000 increase is rubbery. Like all sports' organisations in Aust., the majority of this 18,000 increase does not represent females playing in Club or school AF competitions, the most important nos.)

More importantly, however, in 2019 " ...female participation rates in registered competitions have risen by more than 17% from 2018 to 2019, even after substantial growth in the past few years". The female GR AF boom in NSW is continuing.



As an example of the wisdom/necessity for the AFL to "follow the money in Sydney", have a glance at the sponsors of the affluent Mosman area jnr AF club!
The Mosman Swans have c. 550 players, not including Auskick, & are growing significantly.



Also, re the other 2 sponsors listed

- Cadence built this 4 level, 6 BR modest waterfront home on Sydney'e northern beaches- worth c. $6,000,000+?



-Dixon Advisory are top end financial advisors
I think the AFL should put a team in Canberra before even getting serious about a 3rd team in Sydney, which is at the very least 30 years away
 

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BringBackTorps

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SMH R. Masters 15.9.2019

This is a very interesting article from R. Masters (who usually baits the AFL) covering a range of areas.

He quotes Colin Smith, Global Sport & Media expert, who refers to the strong growth of AF in NSW & Qld; & also says "... the AFL by 2035-2040 could be the national football code...this will push the NRL into a second rung code".

 
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jatz14

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SMH R. Masters 15.9.2019

This is a very interesting article from R. Masters (who usually baits the AFL) covering a range of areas.

He quotes Colin Smith, Global Sport & Media expert, who refers to the strong growth of AF in NSW & Qld; & also says "... the AFL by 2035-2040 could be the national football code...this will push the NRL into a second rung code".

He alternates between baiting the AFL, and using it as the bogeyman to frighten the NRL with.

This is his version of riding through the streets yelling "the British are coming"

Sent from my XT1068 using Tapatalk
 

Roaming Lou

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By the way the afl is going this will proberly never happen but I would support a new sydney nsw/act team as long as there is a tassie team or the blood striped void in south melbourne is filled
 

giggler99

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SMH R. Masters 15.9.2019

This is a very interesting article from R. Masters (who usually baits the AFL) covering a range of areas.

He quotes Colin Smith, Global Sport & Media expert, who refers to the strong growth of AF in NSW & Qld; & also says "... the AFL by 2035-2040 could be the national football code...this will push the NRL into a second rung code".

"Could be the national football code"? I thought it already is. Certainly isn't any of the other football codes.
 

BringBackTorps

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I have written about the crucial importance of the AFL having a very strong presence in Canberra, as it is Aust.'s centre of power. It was the dominant code until the 80's, until ceded to the NRL. This importance may lead to an AFL combined "Sth. Sydney Canberra" club in future decades. (By 2050, Sth. Syd., SW Syd., ACT, Wollongong, South Coast, sthn. NSW etc. will have a population c. 2,5000,000).

The Swans understand this importance of Canberra's political power- they have re-formed a bipartisan grouping of politicians/staffers etc.to support the Swans (&, I assume, AF)
"Swans On The Hill" includes Nationals Deputy PM M. McCormack, Minister D. Chester, ALP co-convenor M. Thistlewaite, Environment Minister S.Ley, ALP's T. Pilbersek (former Dep. Leader of the Opposition 2013-19), Liberal D. Sharma, House Speaker T. Smith, Nationals B. Joyce (former Dep. PM 2016-17) & D. Drum.


The Australian Margin Call Column M. Glasgow C. Lacey 24.10

(behind a a paywall- can anyone open, & post here)
 
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Roaming Lou

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I can't see the AFL in Newcastle, at least this century anyway.

They'd need a stadium, then a massive cultural shift.

If we think the GC/GWS is a hard ask, try the Hunter, Newcastle, Central Coast area.
Fair point, but I think that many people get overly excited about Sydney having 1 million+ supporters though, l think most of them don't really care about AFL but they just "go" for Sydney because its Sydney, as well as a portion of those supporters being Melbourne based.
 

Gigantor

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"Could be the national football code"? I thought it already is. Certainly isn't any of the other football codes.
I guess it depends on what is meant by national. It's certainly the biggest professional league, and it's our indigenous football code, but soccer would claim to have a bigger national footprint in terms of participants.

Back to the op, and if Tassie becomes the 19th team down the track, I can see the AFL staying at 19 teams for a while.

Thereafter, I really can't see anymore teams in Sydney, or anywhere within NSW for that matter (so no Newcastle, and most probably, no Canberra). The Swans and Giants will be given every opportunity to grow bigger and claim the whole of those regions.

There can only be one option for the 20th team, and that's a 3rd Perth team (on the assumption that Perth's population continues to grow).

Failing that, you'd be looking at a 3rd Adelaide team, and after that, the only other contender would be Cairns (but personally, I see that as a long shot too).
 

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Walshawk

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When/if Tassie comes in...
1. Rebrand GWS to Western Sydney and move all games to Sydney. Around Easter they can play a game in each of Newcastle and Woolongong.
2. Hawks and another Vic team play two games each in Canberra, one each v Giants so they maintain their presence. Four games Canberra
3. North to play two games in Albury.
Next TV rights deal - if all good with crowds and ratings...
4. Canberra RAMS enter comp in 2029, playing eight games in Canberra and three in Albury.
This means a game every week in Sydney and 11 extra games in NSW/ACT.
Riverina
Albury
Murrumbidgee/Monaro
South Coast
 

giggler99

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Expect this sort of comment to dog the AFLs national claims as long as the GF is locked into Melbourne.
Rubbish.

It’s only the Sydney jurno‘s specifically NRL jurno’s that can’t bring themselves to believe that Australia Football/AFL is already the biggest national code/League and always has been and always will be. Despite the struggles the code has always had in Sydney.

But I was specifically comparing Australian Football to the other three football codes. You can’t possibly say the either Rugby, League or Football (‘Soccer’) is our national code can you? or either of the three have been?

I think Roy was mistaking “National” with “Sydney“ and didn’t want to admit it to himself and his audience. Or maybe it’s only National if it only involves Sydney?
 

madmug

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Rubbish.

It’s only the Sydney jurno‘s specifically NRL jurno’s that can’t bring themselves to believe that Australia Football/AFL is already the biggest national code/League and always has been and always will be. Despite the struggles the code has always had in Sydney.

But I was specifically comparing Australian Football to the other three football codes. You can’t possibly say the either Rugby, League or Football (‘Soccer’) is our national code can you? or either of the three have been?

I think Roy was mistaking “National” with “Sydney“ and didn’t want to admit it to himself and his audience. Or maybe it’s only National if it only involves Sydney?
Well it is the NRL. A bit like its only Australian if it involves Melbourne. ;)

Both codes are dominated by the original state competitions, VFL, NSWRL. They are both hindered by the politics of their state origins.

Its just one more unfortunate 'legacy' of our out dated Federal system.
 

giggler99

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Well it is the NRL. A bit like its only Australian if it involves Melbourne. ;)

Both codes are dominated by the original state competitions, VFL, NSWRL. They are both hindered by the politics of their state origins.

Its just one more unfortunate 'legacy' of our out dated Federal system.
Yeah but isn’t Australian football far more wide spread and popular around the country than Rugby League? I mean even in NSW below the Barrasi line Australian football is more popular is it not? Soccer is wide spread too I guess but it’s nowhere near as popular and dominant in terms of support and the community’s engagement than Australian Football has been. I don’t know maybe I am living in my little Melbourne bubble but I just can‘t see how League or any other football code can be as dominant then AF or has been.
 
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madmug

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Yeah but isn’t Australian football far more wide spread and popular around the country than Rugby League? I mean even in NSW below the Barrasi line Australian football is more popular is it not? Soccer is wide spread too I guess but it’s nowhere near as popular and dominant in terms of support and the community’s engagement than Australian Football has been. I don’t know maybe I am living in my little Melbourne bubble but I just can see how League or any other football code can be as dominant then AF or has been.
I guess its a lot to do with one's bubble. :)

The AFL is the dominant professional code. It'd win completely hands down if not for SOO in NRL.

RU is cooked. Luckily its an international sport so that gets some public interest. The private schools boys can enjoy their scrums. ;)

The HAL is dross, its a 4th rate competition. However its popularity & easy to play make it a big kids & community sport. So they have many many participants.

We always hope the national teams do well. But when they don't----( crickets chirping----):)
 

Kwality

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Rubbish.

It’s only the Sydney jurno‘s specifically NRL jurno’s that can’t bring themselves to believe that Australia Football/AFL is already the biggest national code/League and always has been and always will be.
That in reply to my suggestion that the AFL will always be quetioned over its claim to be national whilst the Grand Final deal remains - its not rubbish giggles, its transparent, it loads the dice.


How true from the mugsta:

I guess its a lot to do with one's bubble. :)

Well it is the NRL. A bit like its only Australian if it involves Melbourne. ;)
 

Roaming Lou

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Yeah but isn’t Australian football far more wide spread and popular around the country than Rugby League? I mean even in NSW below the Barrasi line Australian football is more popular is it not? Soccer is wide spread too I guess but it’s nowhere near as popular and dominant in terms of support and the community’s engagement than Australian Football has been. I don’t know maybe I am living in my little Melbourne bubble but I just can see how League or any other football code can be as dominant then AF or has been.
As a regional resident Footy is even stronger here, soccer is often frowned upon and nobody cares about basketball.
 

madmug

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As a regional resident Footy is even stronger here, soccer is often frowned upon and nobody cares about basketball.
Geelong? Well you've got an AFL club that's 150 years old & had recent success, so no wonder it dominates. Soccer(Western United) have only just started this year so one hopes they can survive.

Geelong had an NBL team but like a lot of clubs it went bust in the overspending heydays of the NBL. Geez even Sydney & Melbourne teams went bust. Its on the up again so maybe the Supercats will look at a return?
 

BringBackTorps

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This 23.9.19 Daily Telegraph article, written by P . Rothfield (reprinted in The West), refers to the GWS victory over Collingwood in the Prelim. Final- & he might indicate a long term threat to the NRL.


Behind a paywall- can anyone open, & post here?
 
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Kwality

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This 23.9.19 Daily Telegraph article, written by P . Rothfield (reprinted in The West), refers to the GWS victory over Collingwood in the Prelim. Final might- & might indicate a long term threat to the NRL.


Behind a paywall- can anyone open, & post here?
No luck here but Buzz Rothfield was a regular on the Gerard Healy 3AW sports program, knew his sport ....
 

BringBackTorps

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Some social media lengthy Opinion Pieces & anecdotes by GR RU & RL fans on why their respective games in Aust. are experiencing a long term decline in GR regd. nos and/or the popularity of the professional competitions; & possible solutions to reverse these trends.

For the RU OP, the writer says that RA has handed a whole generation of youngsters in northern Sydney & the eastern suburbs to the AFL "on a silver platter"; & that the AFL is much effective in its "hustling" in western Sydney to increase its GR popularity.

1. RU Problems




2. RL Problems

 
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