A Third Team In Sydney - It's Only a Matter Of Time !!

[Demonoid]

That means nothing... they got 40,350 at a 46k stadium. When it was at ANZ stadium they got 60,222.
That’s Like saying Optus oval isn’t a sellout when they get 55k to a derby

And in 2003 they got a 71,019 at a prelim against the Lions. What's your point?
Sydney are still a long way from a third team.

 

[BringBackTorps]

No it can't. Soccer has over 250,000 registered players in Sydney. That's what mainstream looks like.

The AFLNSW/ACT figure of c.15,000 refers to Sydney-only jnr. AF Club (not school) competition players -usually from 8-17 y.o. (ie AF does not have Club comps. for below 8 y.o.; & the 15,000 does not include thousands of booming nos. in Auskick players 5y.o-8 y.o.).
Also, I said AF is a mainstream sport only in Sydney's eastern, northern, & inner western suburbs.

Soccer is certainly the biggest participant sport in Sydney -but Sydney-only does not have 250,000 regd. soccer Club comp. players aged 8-17 y.o. Soccer counts regd. players from 3 y.o. in Miniroos.

My understanding is that, in 2017, there are c.168,653 jnr. & snr. regd. outdoor soccer club players in NSW (ie not including futsal, school, & summer program players -where many players are likely to be double/triple counted by the FFA).

Where does your figure of "250,000 registered players in Sydney" derive from; & what exactly is it comprised of?

 

[jatz14]

The AFLNSW/ACT figure of c.15,000 refers to Sydney-only jnr. AF Club competition players -usually from 8-17 y.o. (ie AF does not have Club comps. for below 8 y.o.; & the 15,000 does not including the booming nos. of Auskick players 5y.o-8 y.o.).
Also, I said AF is a mainstream sport only in Sydney's eastern, northern, & inner western suburbs.

Soccer is certainly the biggest participant sport in Sydney -but Sydney-only does not have 250,000 regd. soccer Club comp. players aged 8-17 y.o. Soccer counts regd. players from 3 y.o. in Miniroos.

My understanding is that, in 2017, there are c.168,653 regd. outdoor soccer club players in NSW (ie not including futsal, school, & summer program players -where many players are likely to be double/triple counted by the FFA).

Where does your figure of "250,000 registered players in Sydney" derive from; & what exactly is it comprised of?

All sports total participation numbers are fanciful, soccers probably the most so due to the degree of double counting. One year my 2 kids would have been counted as 5 participants. It is most reliable in specific categories, ie Club participants. You get very few people participate in multiple clubs in the one year.

15K junior club participants 8-17 yo, is actually a very impressive figure.

 

[thegreig]

And in 2003 they got a 71,019 at a prelim against the Lions. What's your point?
Sydney are still a long way from a third team.

I agree they’re a long way off but was pointing out that last weeks crowd Doesn’t mean there’s a lack of support

 

[BringBackTorps]

https://www.sportsradio.com.au/north-sydney-bears-ceo-open-to-new-merger-with-manly/

Greg Florimo, Nth Sydney Bears CEO, said, re GR RL players in the region, "It's hard to recruit, it's hard to retain players, it's hard to get kids to participate".
Both RL & RU male player nos. are in a long term decline in the Sydney metro region -& GR AF nos. are having strong growth (but are very small on the Central Coast).

Hopefully, in c.10 years+?, a Tas. team will enter the AFL. To create more Broadcast $, a 10th game/20th team will be also required- probably a permanent Thursday night fixture would be created. Will it be in Sydney (whose population is estimated by the ABS to be c.8,000,000 by 2050)?


QRL Chair B.Hatcher said last Wednesday, re all Sydney NRL Clubs "You have to worry whether they can survive in a diminishing (my emphasis) market".
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/sp...s/news-story/b9f211864b443ec1d3a845f12e9c6a2d


EDIT:
The Wallabies lost to 9th ranked Argentina on 15.9.18 -for the first time in Australia since 1983, & have fallen to a record low of 7th in world rankings. The GC official attendance 16,019, Foxtel national Ratings 104,000 -both very poor.

Combined with the very rare victories over NZ teams (All Blacks & Super Rugby teams), poor Aust. jnr. RU team results, record loss to Scotland, home series defeat to Ireland, it appears Aust. RU is in a downward spiral. Can this be reversed by 2020 (Expiry of Foxtel lucrative Super contract)?
It is likely, due to the regular very poor Ratings & crowds, that the financially-beleaguered RA will receive much less broadcast funds/crowd revenues for its future Wallaby & Super Rugby offerings.
RA's traditional strategy is to use the success of the Wallabies as the main "driver" of RA earnings, & GR marketing.

Will RU's non-competitiveness provide further opportunities for AF to boost its popularity with the "demoralised" RU demographic in NSW, Qld & the ACT?

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/rugby-...n-landmark-loss-to-pumas-20180915-p50416.html

 

[Johnny Bananas]

They would play out of where exactly?

Could try Redfern Oval or Erskineville Oval. Former South Sydney grounds and they're the right shape. I think the better idea is to go to Blacktown or Campbelltown though, although by that stage they might be firmly behind the Giants. It sounds like that ship has long since sailed for North Sydney as it's Swans territory now, which is a pity because North Sydney Oval is a great little stadium.

 

[Colonial]

Could try Redfern Oval or Erskineville Oval. Former South Sydney grounds and they're the right shape. I think the better idea is to go to Blacktown or Campbelltown though, although by that stage they might be firmly behind the Giants. It sounds like that ship has long since sailed for North Sydney as it's Swans territory now, which is a pity because North Sydney Oval is a great little stadium.

All of those Grounds would need massive amounts of funds to get them up to scratch.

Cant see there being another Sydney team for a very long time.

At least 3 or 4 places would get a team 1st and I would also say the AFL will give the Giants 30 years to settle like the Swans got.

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

 

[madmug]

Could try Redfern Oval or Erskineville Oval. Former South Sydney grounds and they're the right shape. I think the better idea is to go to Blacktown or Campbelltown though, although by that stage they might be firmly behind the Giants. It sounds like that ship has long since sailed for North Sydney as it's Swans territory now, which is a pity because North Sydney Oval is a great little stadium.

NSO is a tiny cricket ground. It was where the North Sydney Bears played in the NRL. Its way way too small for the AFL & cannot be expanded.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

All of those Grounds would need massive amounts of funds to get them up to scratch.

Cant see there being another Sydney team for a very long time.

At least 3 or 4 places would get a team 1st and I would also say the AFL will give the Giants 30 years to settle like the Swans got.

Fair points. Maybe WA3, Canberra or Cairns along with Tassie then

 

[Gigantor]

As GG said above, Giants will get 30 years to settled down, by which time, they will also be viewed as Canberra's team.

Probably no need for expansion in that time, but if it were to happen, it would be a 3rd WA team, it's the only place in Australia where demand for footy far, far, far exceeds supply, and maybe, it's a big maybe, a tassie team (but the AFL would do that begrudgingly).

 

[Kwality]

Probably no need for expansion in that time, but if it were to happen, it would be a 3rd WA team, it's the only place in Australia where demand for footy far, far, far exceeds supply, and maybe, it's a big maybe, a tassie team (but the AFL would do that begrudgingly).

Two issues are at play here, one is expansion the other is the demand for the game in WA (& SA), & an extra team in WA is not going to satisfy the demand.

Most suggestions for expansion for expansions sake, IMHO only the Tas bid has any chance of breaking even financially within 20 years & that includes a new WA team (footy fans are committed now - how many rusted on fans do you know who simply up & change clubs).
The AFL are happy to move games out of Melbourne but not to SA or WA, time that policy wa put under the microscope.

 

[Outback Footy]

Sydney - 4,500,00 population
Perth & Adelaide - 2,000,000 combined population

Sydney = 250,000 fans, if lucky, Perth and Adelaide = 2 million fans

 

[Aussie in exile]

Could try Redfern Oval or Erskineville Oval. Former South Sydney grounds and they're the right shape. I think the better idea is to go to Blacktown or Campbelltown though, although by that stage they might be firmly behind the Giants. It sounds like that ship has long since sailed for North Sydney as it's Swans territory now, which is a pity because North Sydney Oval is a great little stadium.

All of those Grounds would need massive amounts of funds to get them up to scratch.

Cant see there being another Sydney team for a very long time.

At least 3 or 4 places would get a team 1st and I would also say the AFL will give the Giants 30 years to settle like the Swans got.

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

After what happened with the AFL in Blacktown before there would be zero chance of any Blacktown council spending big money on anything to do with AFL.

 

[jatz14]

3 Rd team is only a matter of time, issue is, that time will be measured in decades (many).

 

[Aussie in exile]

3 Rd team is only a matter of time, issue is, that time will be measured in decades (many).

Probably most of us will be dead or dying by then.

 

[NoobPie]

After what happened with the AFL in Blacktown before there would be zero chance of any Blacktown council spending big money on anything to do with AFL.

Funnily enough the AFL NSW apparently have an excellent relationship with Bankstown council

Apparently it is just insecure rugby league die hards peddling rubbish

 

[BringBackTorps]

3 Rd team is only a matter of time, issue is, that time will be measured in decades (many). [The 3rd team entrance will also be "measured"/considered due to the ABS estimated population of c. 9,000,000 in 2050 in Sydney, ACT, & Wollongong area]

Disagree.

Tasmania was once a recruitment goldmine for the AFL. The best year was in 1986, when 14 Tasmanians were drafted, but its elite AF has severely contracted.
This collapse of elite male AF in Tasmania, primarily due to VFL/AFL ravaging & incompetence, is now an embarrassing, festering, malodorous sore for the AFL. The collapse is also a significant Opportunity Cost for the AFL -the Tas. assembly line of champions must be restored.

The decline and neglect has been publicly noted/castigated by the Federal LNP (including former PM Turnbull), & ALP's Bill Shorten. The Tas. plight is now a Federal political issue -& Tas. has 12 Senators, & marginal Lower House seats
The AFL will be very uncomfortable if it has to wait many decades for a Tas. AFL team -the only effective remedy to re-establish proper elite pathways.

With the 19th team, a 20th will be added soon after, to create a very valuable 10th broadcast game. It is probable a Tas. will be added within 10-20 years.


Changing the topic, this is an insight into the strong growth in jnr. female AF in Sydney -including, quite amazingly, western Sydney. It is interesting that a major Sydney newspaper would write a lengthy feature article concentrating on primary schoolgirl AF -simply inconceivable 3 years ago.
Viva La Revolucion, Hasta La Victoria Siempre, Adelante Mujeras Corragias Australianas (rough translation "Don't Mention The War" & the inexorable rise of the AFLW!)

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/afl/af...n-rugby-league-territory-20180913-p503ie.html

I wish there was an AF team called the Marrickville Maulers -the best moniker in Australia for a team?

The most important item in the SMH article above is the hitherto undisclosed information that in 2018 "...across Sydney (ie metro only, my emphasis) junior female participation (in the 10 - 18 year age groups) increased by 48% this year, almost doubling from last year".

2017 AF stats. are below.
http://aflnswact.com.au/participation-numbers-2017/

 

[telsor]

Two issues are at play here, one is expansion the other is the demand for the game in WA (& SA), & an extra team in WA is not going to satisfy the demand.

Most suggestions for expansion for expansions sake, IMHO only the Tas bid has any chance of breaking even financially within 20 years & that includes a new WA team (footy fans are committed now - how many rusted on fans do you know who simply up & change clubs).
The AFL are happy to move games out of Melbourne but not to SA or WA, time that policy wa put under the microscope.

Break WCE into 2 (or 3).

I'm sure all the WA fans who are happy to kill off Vic clubs would be completely understanding of the need to do it for the greater good.

 

[telsor]

Disagree.

Tasmania was once a recruitment goldmine for the AFL. The best year was in 1986, when 14 Tasmanians were drafted,

1986 draft was SA, Tas & some parts of Country Victoria, and was purely for the rights to those players, not to actually get them to play. Not really comparable to current drafts.

but its elite AF has severely contracted.
This collapse of elite male AF in Tasmania, primarily due to VFL/AFL ravaging & incompetence, is now an embarrassing, festering, malodorous sore for the AFL. The collapse is also a significant Opportunity Cost for the AFL -the Tas. assembly line of champions must be restored.

1986 was also when Tas made an abortive attempt at a statewide league...and screwed it up, all without any VFL/AFL interference. Having Commissioned the Ewers report, they largely ignored it to form a 'state' league that was really just an expanded Hobart league with a few others added in. (you know the same thing everyone whinges and bitches about Vics doing...they did exactly the same when put in a similar state...except they ****ed it up).

The decline and neglect has been publicly noted/castigated by the Federal LNP (including former PM Turnbull), & ALP's Bill Shorten. The Tas. plight is now a Federal political issue -& Tas. has 12 Senators, & marginal Lower House seats
The AFL will be very uncomfortable if it has to wait many decades for a Tas. AFL team -the only effective remedy to re-establish proper elite pathways.

Are the feds going to pay for it? If not, then they don't really get a say.

With the 19th team, a 20th will be added soon after, to create a very valuable 10th broadcast game. It is probable a Tas. will be added within 10-20 years.

Every year that passes they get further and further off the pace, because of the REAL problem down there...a stagnant and aging population. While the rest of the country is growing, there are fewer and fewer football aged kids down there every year, meaning fewer quality players (both in relative and absolute terms) and an economy that would struggle to support a team.

If the numbers stood up (population or financial), why do others sports keep ignoring Tas when expansion opportunities arise?

But hey, lets ignore the facts and just spout hyperbole in the hope that nobody notices, right? After all, that's the basis of all Tas team arguments.

 

[Colonial]

Funnily enough the AFL NSW apparently have an excellent relationship with Bankstown council

Apparently it is just insecure rugby league die hards peddling rubbish

What happened at Blacktown was due to the Mayor at the Time and NSW Cricket not allowing the Giants to be there fulltime.
The AFL was used so they could get the funding for the precinct they wanted.

Obviously the club had to look elsewhere.

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

 

[BringBackTorps]

If the numbers stood up (population or financial), why do others sports keep ignoring Tas when expansion opportunities arise?

Tas. is, incontrovertibly, an historic powerhouse for AF -"punching FAR above its weight". Tas. has occasionally defeated Vic., WA, & SA. Tas. are true AF fanatics, with historic Tas AF crowds the highest, per capita, in Aust. (eg TFL GF in Hobart, 1970 -24,413 crowd).
Other sports in Tas. do not have this pedigree (but professional Tas. cricket performs well with competitive results, & good BBL crowds -which you happily discount).

You are aware that the Tas. population is predominantly (cf. the other states) Anglo/Celtic, with little Asian, Middle Eastern, & continental Euro. migrants. Excluding Aboriginals, Anglo/Celts are FAR the most overrepresented demographic playing in the AFL.
Also, you are aware the Tas. population has grown since these champions & excellent players below were recruited from Tasmania -but its AFL representation (ie quality of champions, & quantum) has declined.

You conveniently ignore these players' magnificent contribution to the VFL/ AFL -when the latter ravaged the Tas. elite comps., & GF AF. SHAME!

T.Johnson Baldock Howell Stewart Lawrence Bonney Hart Sproule Hudson Walker Crosswell Greening P.Jones M.Armstrong Sutton Conlan Cresswell Wright Eade Roach Barwick Pritchard Neal Clayton Rob Shaw A Fletcher Febey Minton-Connell Lovell Atkins Lynch Paul Hudson P Williams B & M Gale R.Robertson M Richardson N & J Riewoldt B.Greene J McCarthy B & J Rawlings Holland M Robinson Birchall B Brown Howe
Neitz & G.Lyon were also born in Tas.

You know that Demetriou & McLachLan have said several times (paraphrasing) "...when expansion occurs next, Tas. will probably be the next team".
Their seminal comments, obviously, had the imprimatur of all the AFL Commission members.
When I asked you in other threads, re Tas. expansion & your denunciations, "What do you know that Demetriou & Mclachlan don't" you claimed, absurdly, they were "lying"! And, by implication, Demetriou, Mclachlan, & other Commissioners are also lying to Tas. Govt. officials, & Fed. Govt officials (including PM Turnbull & ALP leader Shorten)! As if such a deceitful conspiracy could escape detection forever! That is the only "defence" you have for your weak arguments.

Previously, I have said to you "The VFL/AFL Clubs & players have a strong moral responsibility to promote the game, & not hurt GR AF". You ridiculously denied this obvious responsibility! I provided you with numerous examples reinforcing this veracity, but you did not reply to these. You have little credibility.

Most AF fans are fully aware of the parasitical relationship between the VFL/AFL, & Tas. AF. All Victorian newspaper/radio polls etc. on AFL expansion clearly show that, when expansion occurs next, a big majority of respondents want Tas. to be the next team. Ditto, most Vic. MSM AF commentators.

These arguments of the likelihood/benefits of a Tas. team have been discussed ad nauseum in other Threads.

 

[Kwality]

Break WCE into 2 (or 3).

I'm sure all the WA fans who are happy to kill off Vic clubs would be completely understanding of the need to do it for the greater good.

Do the same with Richmond, so many down hill skiers have comeout of the woodwork - A-E surnames allocated to the Bullies, F-Q allocated to North, R-Z to be soaked up by the Saints.
How compromised is the comp with 9 teams in one city, supply exceeds demand, even the Tiges needed to take games interstate to balance the books: say no more

 

[speedpeck23]

3rd AFL TEAM in Sydney will only happen when AFL is clearly the number one participant and spectator sport in NSW..... ie when Giants and Sydney have maximised their support base ... the AFL would be cutting off its nose to spite its face by adding another team in NSW in any other circumstance.

The basic AFL intention (AFL Commission 2001)with expansion is to have an AFL match played weekly in every major population base throughout Australia. A third Sydney team would not add much to that intention and would complicate the plan to build a significant rivalry between the 2 existing clubs. Agree though, that if Tassie comes in its better to have 20 teams.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Do the same with Richmond, so many down hill skiers have comeout of the woodwork - A-E surnames allocated to the Bullies, F-Q allocated to North, R-Z to be soaked up by the Saints.
How compromised is the comp with 9 teams in one city, supply exceeds demand, even the Tiges needed to take games interstate to balance the books: say no more

Sorry mate, but I've been a member for over a quarter of a century, and contributed thousands a year in direct contributions to the club

How am I a bandwagoner?

 

[telsor]

Do the same with Richmond, so many down hill skiers have comeout of the woodwork - A-E surnames allocated to the Bullies, F-Q allocated to North, R-Z to be soaked up by the Saints.
How compromised is the comp with 9 teams in one city, supply exceeds demand, even the Tiges needed to take games interstate to balance the books: say no more

If we were talking about how to add a team in Melbourne, that might make sense.

But we're not.