A Third Team In Sydney - It's Only a Matter Of Time !!

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Jun 6, 2016
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Why the "if'. The Swans did drop away and they came through. All clubs drop support in lean patches just as clubs gain support in purple patches.

You can't compare that to footy heartland clubs because they're heartland clubs, your fairweather support drops away. The numbers of the 'through thick n thin' fans are still high though.

In contrast it's fair speculation that Syd fans that are 'through thick n thin' is a very much smaller percentage and the exception rather than the rule. That's very hard to argue.

Bris is another good example, the gabba has been an echo chamber with almost zero fans in it for the last decade. 2019 and all of a sudden msm, and fans who think Dan Rich is a qlder come out of the woodwork.

Whichever way you boil it down and dissect it there is heartland and syd is not one of them. A generation away at least - this discussion is way way too early.
 

HardcoreGeelongFan

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Need to downscale the NSW teams if anything along with otherstates and replace them with regional Victorian teams. Right now the closest ground to the Mallacoota, Lorne, Horsham and Echuca regions are basically MCG or Geelong

Perhaps we should go back to state leagues and only have the AFL every 4 years like FIFA
 
Apr 12, 2012
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Need to downscale the NSW teams if anything along with otherstates and replace them with regional Victorian teams. Right now the closest ground to the Mallacoota, Lorne, Horsham and Echuca regions are basically MCG or Geelong

Perhaps we should go back to state leagues and only have the AFL every 4 years like FIFA
Drunk?
 
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Exactly. Which argument sounds better?
"We should have a Tasmanian team because GWS is a failure" or
"We should have a Tasmanian team because we can learn from GWS success"
"We should have a Tasmanian team because it has an immediate sustainable fan base or AF will die off in one of the heartlands if it isn't already"

EFA, that should be the argument around Tas - nothing else. As for a 3rd syd team using junior gr rates and population numbers doesn't hold weight, the conversation is too early.

There's already two money pits that HQ are throwing money in an attempt to have footy as the number 1 code in rl states, and that's at least a generation before it becomes anywhere near fruition.
 
Jun 6, 2016
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I'm genuinely curious what the people on here who constantly call out GWS as a failure expect from them?

We are constantly reminded by Pippen (apparently the only man who has been to West Sydney on this site) of how little anyone there cares. And yet despite this, heartland soccer and rugby league teams from Western Sydney only average 3000 more people to a game each than the Giant's games in Sydney do. This is despite the fact that the rectangular stadium in Parramatta is much more accessible than Giants Stadium is, is brand new and has a lot more going on in its general vicinity.

This is despite the fact that I can jump on and get tickets to the Wanderers game tomorrow for $15 each adult prices. In fact, there are only 2 bays i can purchase tickets from that cost over $40. That contrasts pretty heavily with the Giants ticket pricing (something I've been pretty vocally against FWIW - AFL should be subsidising ticket costs as a form of distribution IMO rather than just dumping money on the club).

So what would be a success story for the Giants? Should they be drawing more than 100 year old rugby league clubs are despite only existing for a decade in what is considered extremely hostile territory. Should they be outdrawing an a-league club in the strongest soccer area in the country and possibly the weakest AF area, with an older and more inaccessible stadium? Keep in mind, the league clubs have 8 other teams they can draw opposition supporters from in Sydney, as well as 1 from Newcastle, and the Wanderers have 3 teams within a 2 hour drive (not that the Jets or Mariners will be drawing all that much away support). Giants only have the Swans as a local derby.

You'd have to be bonkers to be disappointed with the club's figures at this point in their life.

Also the recent commentary about membership is hilarious. Wanna know the three teams that have more than double the member to average attendee count? Hawthorn, North and GWS. Guess what they have in common. They all have a "second home". It's almost like the clubs are going to sell attractive membership packs to both markets to boost their numbers.

Take out 5k ACT members from GWS and your ratio is very similar to the Swans. (1.99 members per attendee for the Swans, 2.02 members per attendee for the Giants).

That's a fair question, to be honest that's not really the question as far as the thread goes.

Is it a matter of time before the populace in rl territory adopt AF as their number 1 code or not? That question is probably more relevant to the thread.

IF the answer is yes then that's at least a generation away - then and only then should HQ look at such a proposal. Let's face it we're talking about a populace that's more heavily rusted onto rl than any other code - by a fair margin, msm and the fan on the couch will tell you that they're more interested in rl than af.

Sure syd have a huge supporter base but most of them follow an nrl team, syd is a passing interest at best and most of em wouldn't know buddy's first name. They're syd fans not AF fans.

Bris, another rl heartland - for 10 years the gabba's been tumbleweeds, 2019 and all of a sudden it's packed houses. Bris fans not AF fans

Similar in melbourne there's a big fan base for the storm, reckon most of them are rusted on rl fans? Yeah nah, would know little about the rules of the game. Storm fans not rl fans.

Point is the moment there's a dip in on field performance the bulk of them go missing, when they're up then it's 'our team'.

Until (IF) the fan base is footy fans first then it's pointless talking about a 3rd syd team.
 
Apr 24, 2018
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You bring up apples for apple's yet talk about a footy state vs a frontier state.

Can't compare either.

Oh and North avged just under 12k in Sydney from what I read and that was a 100 year old club that was winning flags.

So we are doing well in our 8th year.
I was responding to some one else who posted Tasmania’s fifo crowd numbers comparing them to being similar to gws which there not they are substantially better I believe our numbers are very good compared to a local gws considering neither club has any connection to Tasmania as well north is probably the smallest drawing Victorian club also you keep playing this frontier state card the swans have been in Sydney over thirty years now and gws close to ten afl in nsw is hardly new you also you have a population 4-5 times bigger then Tasmania to draw from I don’t think it is unrealistic to think a local Tassie team would double gws crowd numbers and its personal opinion if you’re happy drawing crowds of 12,000 like I said if a Tasmanian team was getting those numbers after 8 years I would be extremely worried about our viability especially if we had a population of over 2 million it’s all well and good to have participation and growth the club still needs to be financially viable though!
 
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I was responding to some one else who posted Tasmania’s fifo crowd numbers comparing them to being similar to gws which there not they are substantially better I believe our numbers are very good compared to a local gws considering neither club has any connection to Tasmania as well north is probably the smallest drawing Victorian club also you keep playing this frontier state card the swans have been in Sydney over thirty years now and gws close to ten afl in nsw is hardly new you also you have a population 4-5 times bigger then Tasmania to draw from I don’t think it is unrealistic to think a local Tassie team would double gws crowd numbers and its personal opinion if you’re happy drawing crowds of 12,000 like I said if a Tasmanian team was getting those numbers after 8 years I would be extremely worried about our viability especially if we had a population of over 2 million it’s all well and good to have participation and growth the club still needs to be financially viable though!

Punctuation and paragraphs would be good.

Yes you were replying to someone else but it's your go to whenever you talk about the sport in Sydney.

If you are after us to be financially viable after 8 years shouldn't your mob be after 100?

Thinking NSW is anything but a frontier for the sport is ridiculous. Western Sydney is new to the sport and takes time.

As for Tassie doubling a crowds? Well they would need a bigger stadium 1st.
 
Apr 24, 2018
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Punctuation and paragraphs would be good.

Yes you were replying to someone else but it's your go to whenever you talk about the sport in Sydney.

If you are after us to be financially viable after 8 years shouldn't your mob be after 100?

Thinking NSW is anything but a frontier for the sport is ridiculous. Western Sydney is new to the sport and takes time.

As for Tassie doubling a crowds? Well they would need a bigger stadium 1st.
Do you agree nsw in general has not in the past drawn drawn large consistent crowd numbers for any of the codes exceptions are the odd swans game and rl origin this is my point no sport draws good crowds in Sydney !
 

HavUEvaSeenTheRain

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That's a fair question, to be honest that's not really the question as far as the thread goes.

Is it a matter of time before the populace in rl territory adopt AF as their number 1 code or not? That question is probably more relevant to the thread.

IF the answer is yes then that's at least a generation away - then and only then should HQ look at such a proposal. Let's face it we're talking about a populace that's more heavily rusted onto rl than any other code - by a fair margin, msm and the fan on the couch will tell you that they're more interested in rl than af.

Sure syd have a huge supporter base but most of them follow an nrl team, syd is a passing interest at best and most of em wouldn't know buddy's first name. They're syd fans not AF fans.

Bris, another rl heartland - for 10 years the gabba's been tumbleweeds, 2019 and all of a sudden it's packed houses. Bris fans not AF fans

Similar in melbourne there's a big fan base for the storm, reckon most of them are rusted on rl fans? Yeah nah, would know little about the rules of the game. Storm fans not rl fans.

Point is the moment there's a dip in on field performance the bulk of them go missing, when they're up then it's 'our team'.

Until (IF) the fan base is footy fans first then it's pointless talking about a 3rd syd team.
It would be interesting to look at struggling Victorian sides drop off in attendances when playing against interstate teams considering counting opposition Victorian supporters who can easily make the game tells us nothing. Also when talking about membership to attendance ratio it’s probably better to only compare Victorian games against interstate sides. It doesn’t give the full picture but probably a better one then counting 30% plus of the crowd when they are actually supporting the opposition.
 
Apr 12, 2012
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Do you agree nsw in general has not in the past drawn drawn large consistent crowd numbers for any of the codes exceptions are the odd swans game and rl origin this is my point no sport draws good crowds in Sydney !

I accept for all sport except the Swans, who have drawn well consistently since the beginning of the new millennium.

We are an 8 year old club in a frontier market already drawing the same as the rusted on heartland sports of the NRL and A-League. That's an up. We will keep getting better as we grow.
 
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It would be interesting to look at struggling Victorian sides drop off in attendances when playing against interstate teams considering counting opposition Victorian supporters who can easily make the game tells us nothing. Also when talking about membership to attendance ratio it’s probably better to only compare Victorian games against interstate sides. It doesn’t give the full picture but probably a better one then counting 30% plus of the crowd when they are actually supporting the opposition.

Most small Vic clubs don't have big numbers to begin with. But most of their base sticks phat regardless.

I'd argue that's different as I explained.
 

abcde12345

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You can't compare that to footy heartland clubs because they're heartland clubs, your fairweather support drops away. The numbers of the 'through thick n thin' fans are still high though.

In contrast it's fair speculation that Syd fans that are 'through thick n thin' is a very much smaller percentage and the exception rather than the rule. That's very hard to argue.

Bris is another good example, the gabba has been an echo chamber with almost zero fans in it for the last decade. 2019 and all of a sudden msm, and fans who think Dan Rich is a qlder come out of the woodwork.

Whichever way you boil it down and dissect it there is heartland and syd is not one of them. A generation away at least - this discussion is way way too early.
See I don't think here Brisbane is a good example for the point you're articulating.

Before last year, Brisbane hit the finals once in 14 seasons. They were also bottom 4 in 8 of those years.

Despite that, 6 years into that stretch, the Lions were still averaging 30k in a stadium that holds less than 40k.

The year GC was introduced, attendances dropped 10k for the lions. Following this, the lions finished bottom 4 in 7 out of 9 seasons. Over this stretch, once factoring in the GC drop, Crowds bottomed 4k lower.

I think more than anything what the Lions attendances show is that there was a considerable number of GC based fans who switched to the local side when it was introduced. If anything, it shows pretty strong resilience from the QLD market, especially considering it's not the number 1 sport. For a 14 season stretch with 8 seasons in the bottom 4 and the introduction of a competing side in the marketplace, the drop off is pretty fair IMO.

Sydney also finished bottom 4 this year, and barely had a drop in attendances at all.
 

BringBackTorps

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1. Why are you coming onto an AF site, pretending to be a supporter of AF?

I am not
Before I respond to your trolling & deflections, can you answer the first questions I put to you above this, re regd. official AF nos.?
Are you going to respond fully to RedV?
 

RedV3x

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Bris is another good example, the gabba has been an echo chamber with almost zero fans in it for the last decade.

Zero fans ?

Year
GM
Ave.
GM
Ave.
GM
Ave.
GM
Ave.
2019
272146​
11​
24741​
323139​
11​
29376​
595285​
22​
27058​
67512​
2​
33756​
2018
202462​
11​
18406​
273762​
11​
24887​
476224​
22​
21647​
2017
181007​
11​
16455​
300831​
11​
27348​
481838​
22​
21902​
2016
187816​
11​
17074​
313238​
11​
28476​
501054​
22​
22775​
2015
206911​
11​
18810​
260449​
11​
23677​
467360​
22​
21244​
2014
217178​
11​
19743​
253265​
11​
23024​
470443​
22​
21384​
2013
231909​
11​
21083​
272084​
11​
24735​
503993​
22​
22909​
2012
223781​
11​
20344​
290599​
11​
26418​
514380​
22​
23381​
2011
225078​
11​
20462​
329102​
11​
29918​
554180​
22​
25190​
2010
329264​
11​
29933​
310318​
11​
28211​
639582​
22​
29072​
2009
320896​
11​
29172​
321413​
11​
29219​
642309​
22​
29196​
79732​
2​
39866​
 

HavUEvaSeenTheRain

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And you're going on a gut feel that nsw/qld is footy heartland, if that's not your argument then the discussion is moot.
We both know that’s not what I was saying. I was just saying that the non heartland clubs supporters are not really any different to heartland clubs when it comes to “rusted on” or “bandwagon” types. Those stats I posted pretty much highlight that.

Nice job trying to build a straw man but.
 
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See I don't think here Brisbane is a good example for the point you're articulating.

Before last year, Brisbane hit the finals once in 14 seasons. They were also bottom 4 in 8 of those years.

Despite that, 6 years into that stretch, the Lions were still averaging 30k in a stadium that holds less than 40k.

The year GC was introduced, attendances dropped 10k for the lions. Following this, the lions finished bottom 4 in 7 out of 9 seasons. Over this stretch, once factoring in the GC drop, Crowds bottomed 4k lower.

I think more than anything what the Lions attendances show is that there was a considerable number of GC based fans who switched to the local side when it was introduced. If anything, it shows pretty strong resilience from the QLD market, especially considering it's not the number 1 sport. For a 14 season stretch with 8 seasons in the bottom 4 and the introduction of a competing side in the marketplace, the drop off is pretty fair IMO.

Sydney also finished bottom 4 this year, and barely had a drop in attendances at all.

Fair call, I will copy what you've posted though 'especially considering it's not the number 1 sport'.

We could go around around infinitum but no amount of that will change the fact you've posted here, and that is really what the crux of the conversation is.

Even with Bris with that resilience or Syd's fan base - the bulk of those populations are not footy fans - they're fans of the local club and as you've pointed they drop out when things aren't so good. Syd will follow if they continue to mire.

So before we even have a conversation about a 3rd syd team, wouldn't it make sense to have a truly sustainable fan base FIRST? Not a meh fan base who don't give a flying.
 
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