A thread on politics- have some balls and post

[M Malice]

Yeah...$80 million with a return of Doughnuts....

I don't think Clive needs anymore Doughnuts.

 

[Albi_Mangler]

Was the result really such a surprise? Especially in QLD. I for sure did not feel like Labor had the winning platform or leader. A quick look on social media gave me enough pause for concern with all the Fake News being spread unchallenged.

Opinion polls have recent form for being wildly inaccurate (see Brexit/Trump elections). The polls either are not representative or people flat out lie to them.

Palmer did exactly what was required, capture the MAGA vote and preference away from Labor. One Nation does similar but for a much more far right demographic.

The main problem Labor had was leadership - Shorten had almost no way to capture votes from electorates Labor needed them to gain seats.

For many years I have taken solace in the fact my Local MP is a decent hard working politician and does his best to represent his constituents.

 

[jackess]

 

[Dalions]

View attachment 677013

I am a proud Qld’er!

 

[Viceregal]

View attachment 677013

If the rest of Australia went in one direction federally it wouldn't make a difference what Qld (or any other single state) did ... it may be more obvious here but Qld most certainly did not speak with a lone voice (nor be the only passenger in the car!)

 

[Fatcat08]

View attachment 677013

Its a nice narrative but its really not true when you look at it.

a first preference comparison shows the below



so thats 6 states to 2 who voted LNP over labour on first preference. Doesn't exactly paint QLD as the sole bird on the branch now does it. but hey lets not let facts get in the way of irrational ranting

 

[Hollow Knight]

Its a nice narrative but its really not true when you look at it.

a first preference comparison shows the below

View attachment 677135

so thats 6 states to 2 who voted LNP over labour on first preference. Doesn't exactly paint QLD as the sole bird on the branch now does it. but hey lets not let facts get in the way of irrational ranting

Yeah but look at the spready between LNP and Labour, indicating that a huge amount of people in Queensland voted for LNP via preference after giving their primary vote to an even more revolting right wing minor party.

 

[Fatcat08]

Yeah but look at the spready between LNP and Labour, indicating that a huge amount of people in Queensland voted for LNP via preference after giving their primary vote to an even more revolting right wing minor party.

Funnily enough Labor actually closed the gap on 2 party preferred basis. Not massive amounts but they did gain a few percent. Don't get me wrong the large vote to one nation in QLD and WA is disappointing but its not like QLD was so far removed from the rest of the country.

What is quite entertaining is watching you try to preach about proper discourse and reasoned argument over the last year or so in this thread and then when it doesn't go your way turn to insults rash generalisations. I'd suggest you temper your criticisms of others who do the same from now on

 

[James North]

View attachment 677013

Rest of the country is mostly staunchly religious? I guess that makes sense considering how they voted.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Funnily enough Labor actually closed the gap on 2 party preferred basis. Not massive amounts but they did gain a few percent. Don't get me wrong the large vote to one nation in QLD and WA is disappointing but its not like QLD was so far removed from the rest of the country.

What is quite entertaining is watching you try to preach about proper discourse and reasoned argument over the last year or so in this thread and then when it doesn't go your way turn to insults rash generalisations. I'd suggest you temper your criticisms of others who do the same from now on

This seems a pretty disproportionate response. Not sure anything I have said here on election night or since really fits that category other than saying “Queensland is a joke”, which;

1. It pretty much is right now across large sections of the internet and general public discussion. Queensland’s voting eccentricities have been a meme before memes we’re even a thing. Rae Wear has written heavily about it. They used to call it “the Deep North” for a reason, and returning Joh’s police state government for two decades cemented that, and;

2. It’s just lines on a map. People getting personally insulted at discussions of voting patterns about a whole state based on accident of birth is all a bit weird to me.

Nothing else I said seems to fit your description above other than a bemoaning of the general lack of long term political vision in our political campaigns on all sides, and from voters themselves. Oh and I also called some of the minor right parties festering cancers. I’ll stand by that.

Certainly a case for some criticism of my posting style here in the past. Just not sure why you chose now after an innocuous counterargument to some stats you posted.

 

[royboys4eva]

Australians can smell a rat and Shorten was as big a fraud as you will ever see. Wanted to introduce policies that he couldn't even understand or explain. I couldn't believe people were saying he campaigned well. Morrison ran rings around him.

Even better for Morrison was that Abbott lost. He needs to get some fresh blood in the Ministry. Albanese will be much more popular than Shorten ever was.

 

[Caiphus]

I've said it before but Shorten was essentially a whip acting as leader. The economic policy for example came from econ PHDs Jim Chalmers and Andrew Leigh (although Bowen will likely be the one to hang for it).

His public persona was too easy to smear with s**t that was patently false (they had a whole royal commission to try to give those smears legitimacy which turned up nothing) but people believed it because he seemed a little odd. Behind the scenes he had the whole party pulling in the same direction which no one had managed for an extended period of time since Hawkey.

 

[Caiphus]

Without Shorten, I'm afraid the party will start eating itself again.

Edit: Not that he deserves to be leader any more. I just think Australia has moved too far to the right for the labour movement to have much relevance until they've effectively been legislated out of existence.

 

[notliondown]

I like most expected Labor to romp it in. If fact I told some I thought it would be a bloodbath. But like most that came from a place of poll driven expectation rather than reality.

This whole blame Qld line is not only factually wrong, it's really a pretty silly argument.

Plenty of blue and green right across the country not just here. The huge swings Labor expected in Vic didn't eventuate. Tasmania didn't fall as expected. Nor did WA. Sure Qld swang hard to the LNP but the rest of the country more or less kept the status quo. So lets bed the whole Qld is to blame BS. Labor always needed to win seats - it simply didn't.

The second part of the whole Qld is to blame thing concerns the preference flows from ON and AUP to the LNP. It's true there was a tight flow back to the LNP... but a very sizeable chunk of the minor parties vote appears to have come from Labor. The fact the preferences flow the LNP after that is evidence that even Labor voters didn't vote Labor.

The interesting thing is why.

I'm no expert by any stretch but I can think of a few things that Labor didn't need to do.

It didn't need to re-engage with the politics of envy.

By painting self funded retiree's as wealthy you create an enemy.
By suggesting that those who negative gear are the cause of house price pressure you create an enemy.
By forcing small business to find the funds to implement wage increases when they are struggling in a depressed economy, you create an enemy.
By creating a scenario whereby you paint traditional strong Labor voters in seats that were notionally Labor as the enemy because they dug coal for a living you alienate the very people who support you - and have supported you for decades.
By implying that farmers who have paid huge amounts for legitimate water licenses are to blame for drought sticken rivers and streams, you create an enemy.

The list goes on.

Labor had drunk enough of it's own bathwater, believed enough of the polling, to think they couldn't lose. In a lot of ways it was Clinton and the Dem's in 2016. They lost the unlosable election.

You cannot inspire, you cannot lift up, you can not lead if your agenda is to cut down, humiliate, vilify and treat aspiration as if it were a crime. You cannot alienate group after group after group, reagrdless of your intentions and expect those who are left to be enough.

Surely the role of a leader, of good government, is to find a way to raise the less fortunate not penalise those who by some statistic are not. To ignore a lifetime of hard work, of contributing to society, of paying taxes, because it suits a narrative of good vs evil is simplistic and divisive.

The adage in Australia that Governments lose elections not oppositions winning them is often true. That Labor went backwards in this election is a damning indictment on them not an endorsement of the LNP.

Whether this election result is right or not is a personal opinion.

Shorten was always the wrong leader for a thousand reasons. But the fault is not his alone. Until Labor realise that equality of policy is as critical as it's moral righteousness, they will lose. Having all the right policies mean nothing if you can't make people feel included not persecuted.

I pray Morrison has the balls and now the power within the LNP to take action. To defy history to move on energy, to at least create a climate policy. I hope he seizes the opportunity to try and change the dialogue of his party. I hope he has the strength to listen and the wisdom to use his newfound power for all and to modernize the Governments thinking.

I don't like my chance but.

 

[Jivlain]

I like most expected Labor to romp it in. If fact I told some I thought it would be a bloodbath. But like most that came from a place of poll driven expectation rather than reality.

This whole blame Qld line is not only factually wrong, it's really a pretty silly argument.View attachment 678202

Plenty of blue and green right across the country not just here. The huge swings Labor expected in Vic didn't eventuate. Tasmania didn't fall as expected. Nor did WA. Sure Qld swang hard to the LNP but the rest of the country more or less kept the status quo. So lets bed the whole Qld is to blame BS. Labor always needed to win seats - it simply didn't.

The second part of the whole Qld is to blame thing concerns the preference flows from ON and AUP to the LNP. It's true there was a tight flow back to the LNP... but a very sizeable chunk of the minor parties vote appears to have come from Labor. The fact the preferences flow the LNP after that is evidence that even Labor voters didn't vote Labor.

The interesting thing is why.

I'm no expert by any stretch but I can think of a few things that Labor didn't need to do.

It didn't need to re-engage with the politics of envy.

By painting self funded retiree's as wealthy you create an enemy.
By suggesting that those who negative gear are the cause of house price pressure you create an enemy.
By forcing small business to find the funds to implement wage increases when they are struggling in a depressed economy, you create an enemy.
By creating a scenario whereby you paint traditional strong Labor voters in seats that were notionally Labor as the enemy because they dug coal for a living you alienate the very people who support you - and have supported you for decades.
By implying that farmers who have paid huge amounts for legitimate water licenses are to blame for drought sticken rivers and streams, you create an enemy.

The list goes on.

Labor had drunk enough of it's own bathwater, believed enough of the polling, to think they couldn't lose. In a lot of ways it was Clinton and the Dem's in 2016. They lost the unlosable election.

You cannot inspire, you cannot lift up, you can not lead if your agenda is to cut down, humiliate, vilify and treat aspiration as if it were a crime. You cannot alienate group after group after group, reagrdless of your intentions and expect those who are left to be enough.

Surely the role of a leader, of good government, is to find a way to raise the less fortunate not penalise those who by some statistic are not. To ignore a lifetime of hard work, of contributing to society, of paying taxes, because it suits a narrative of good vs evil is simplistic and divisive.

The adage in Australia that Governments lose elections not oppositions winning them is often true. That Labor went backwards in this election is a damning indictment on them not an endorsement of the LNP.

Whether this election result is right or not is a personal opinion.

Shorten was always the wrong leader for a thousand reasons. But the fault is not his alone. Until Labor realise that equality of policy is as critical as it's moral righteousness, they will lose. Having all the right policies mean nothing if you can't make people feel included not persecuted.

I pray Morrison has the balls and now the power within the LNP to take action. To defy history to move on energy, to at least create a climate policy. I hope he seizes the opportunity to try and change the dialogue of his party. I hope he has the strength to listen and the wisdom to use his newfound power for all and to modernize the Governments thinking.

I don't like my chance but.

The party attracting the largest positive swing in Queensland was the Greens. Labor tried straddling the fence on Queensland - promising Victorians strong anti-Adani actions and Queenslanders Adani jobs (nonexistent as they would actually be). People don't really like that, as UK Labour is taking a long path towards learning atm.

Aside: one of the big reasons why the 2012 election was such a massive wipeout for Qld Labor was Greens voters refusing to preference a Labor party which was fundamentally antagonistic towards their principles. And the reason why pollsters didn't predict 2015 was the Greens voters came back (pollsters generally report as the headline figures on the assumption that voters for party X will basically preference the same way X voters did last time. If that actually changes - as it did in 2015 (and 2012) - then the headline figures will be off*)

* Memo to self: analyse the Palmer & Hanson preference flows in this and previous elections**
** This will not be a complete explanation as the L/NP primary was also apparently elevated relative to the polls.

 

[Fatcat08]

This seems a pretty disproportionate response. Not sure anything I have said here on election night or since really fits that category other than saying “Queensland is a joke”, which;

1. It pretty much is right now across large sections of the internet and general public discussion. Queensland’s voting eccentricities have been a meme before memes we’re even a thing. Rae Wear has written heavily about it. They used to call it “the Deep North” for a reason, and returning Joh’s police state government for two decades cemented that, and;

2. It’s just lines on a map. People getting personally insulted at discussions of voting patterns about a whole state based on accident of birth is all a bit weird to me.

Nothing else I said seems to fit your description above other than a bemoaning of the general lack of long term political vision in our political campaigns on all sides, and from voters themselves. Oh and I also called some of the minor right parties festering cancers. I’ll stand by that.

Certainly a case for some criticism of my posting style here in the past. Just not sure why you chose now after an innocuous counterargument to some stats you posted.

You're pretty quick to jump on people when they post things that they see as fairly innocuous but you disagree with, yet you take umbrage and casually dismiss it when it happens in reverse. It's not surprising but it sure is annoying

 

[Hollow Knight]

Wouldn’t say it was casually dismissed. Thought I posted a good faith substantiation in response. *shrug*

In any case, I’ve copped plenty in here as well as given it out.

It’s emotional ground for most of us. But ultimately it’s generally good faith at the end of the day with the exception of a very small minority who just do an occasional drive by with the one line troll bait and usually get ignored.

Viceregal and I butt heads a fair bit but inevitably find our way back to “agree to disagree” territory. Thread seems to generally manage itself without the tone policing.

 

[DERRINALPHIL]

I think the best thing about the election was a mate of mine who had invested money on a Labor win, got an early pay out, reinvested on Labor again and lost the lot!!!!!

My grandfather was a bookie so I barrack for the other side.

 

[Viceregal]

Viceregal and I butt heads a fair bit but inevitably find our way back to “agree to disagree” territory. Thread seems to generally manage itself without the tone policing.

It's hard sometimes what with him indulging in conservative wingnuttery and me getting into the act with my progressive moonbattery ...

 

[SizeMatters]

mood at work is so so sooooooooo poor based off the recent election results

 

[MacMum]

That's ridiculous. It's not the end of the world for gods sake. We are becoming like America, sore losers and getting nasty.

The days of being humble in defeat seem to be gone.

 

[dlanod]

That's ridiculous. It's not the end of the world for gods sake. We are becoming like America, sore losers and getting nasty.

The days of being humble in defeat seem to be gone.

I don't think it's that simple - sore losers but also many sore winners, which is probably more reflective of the desire (and public buy-in) for a constant "us vs them" narrative.

 

[SizeMatters]

That's ridiculous. It's not the end of the world for gods sake. We are becoming like America, sore losers and getting nasty.

The days of being humble in defeat seem to be gone.

where I work it more or less is though a returning government means we wont have the funding nor leadership to actually do anything meaningful it will just be more of the same and tbh I've lost two potential job opportunities already because of it the ASL cap

all of this is Imo ofcourse

 

[Hollow Knight]

Yeah not sure I can see it as a “ah well, better luck next time” magnanimous sporting mindset.

I have a three year old and have a vested interest in him not having to experience life through an apocalyptic climate event. It’s a bit more than 4 premiership points on the line.

 

[Dalions]

Yeah not sure I can see it as a “ah well, better luck next time” magnanimous sporting mindset.

I have a three year old and have a vested interest in him not having to experience life through an apocalyptic climate event. It’s a bit more than 4 premiership points on the line.

So are you trying to say that it would all be the LNP’s fault if an apocalyptic climate event occurred?