A thread on politics- have some balls and post

Lol, straight confession to poll herding.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...ed-labor-losing-election-20190604-p51u9v.html

A leading market research agency tore up a poll showing Labor was in a much worse position than widely believed because it was worried the results did not match other published polls.
In a revelation that sheds light on why the nation's pollsters failed to accurately predict the outcome of the election, Lonergan Research boss Chris Lonergan admitted junking the poll because he was "embarrassed" it was radically different to those of his competitors.
"No one wants to release a poll that is wildly out of step ... we didn't want to be seen as having an inaccurate poll," he said.

Most polls predicted a comfortable win for Bill Shorten's Labor Party but were proved wrong on election night.Credit: .
The robopoll, which was conducted twice and measured voting intention in the key state of Queensland, showed the ALP on a primary vote close to the 26.7 per cent it received in that state, and the Liberal-National Party headed for a "strong victory".

The poll was conducted for a client who has not given permission to release the full data. Mr Lonergan said the poll was so different from rivals' polls that he suppressed the results.
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"Given that we felt it was out of step with the general sentiment that we had seen reported in the media, we were concerned that the report might not be accurate and made a decision not to publicly release the data," he said.
"This is the first time we have actually chosen not to release a poll at all that would have otherwise been released."
Mr Lonergan first revealed the decision in a forthcoming episode of the TalkTrack podcast published by the Public Relations Institute of Australia.

Polling companies have been at a loss to explain the Coalition's triumph on May 18 when all major opinion polls had pointed to a comfortable Labor victory: a rare failure in the world of Australian political polling, which has a good track record when it comes to accuracy.
Mr Lonergan said it was possible a degree of "herding" had taken place – a phenomenon whereby pollsters "basically weight your data until you get a result which is in line with the result that you would like to publish, which is not out of step [with competitors]".
Pollsters also interrogated data that seemed "wrong" much more vigorously than if the data matched expectations, Mr Lonergan said.
"If you feel the results of a poll are suspicious you are much more thorough in investigating these issues than if the poll is showing data that is intuitively right," he said.
An aggregation of Newspolls during the campaign put Labor's primary vote in Queensland at 33 per cent, with the Liberal National Party on 36 per cent. However, a Newspoll in the final week of the campaign had Labor on 30 and the LNP on 35, translating to a 52-48 two-party preferred lead for the LNP.

Ipsos polls conducted for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age in May had Labor on a primary vote of 30 in Queensland and the LNP on 37. At the election, the LNP recorded a primary vote of 43.7 in that state.
After the 2015 British general election, pollster Survation admitted to suppressing a survey that pointed to a significant Conservative victory because the results "seemed so out of line" with previous polls.
The company's founder Damian Lyons Lowe said he "chickened out" of publishing the figures – "something I'm sure I'll always regret".
Australian election analyst Kevin Bonham said it was not known how frequently pollsters engaged in such behaviour but it "has often been a suspected part of herding".
"Even then you still don’t know what to make of that because it wasn't published before the fact so you can't go back and verify that it was real in the first place," he said.

Dr Bonham said it was evident the major polls had "clustered" around a Labor victory but it was not clear whether that was the result of pollsters "altering their numbers so they were more like other pollsters".
"They may have done things to stop their own polls bouncing around too much from poll to poll – anti-volatility measures," he said. "If you are doing it, you should be confessing to it."

Gels nicely with reports showing the variance in the released polls was much lower than it statistically ought to have been. If there's one good thing about this election it's hopefully the death of the polling industry.
 
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Lol, straight confession to poll herding.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...ed-labor-losing-election-20190604-p51u9v.html



Gels nicely with reports showing the variance in the released polls was much more than it statistically ought to have been. If there's one good thing about this election it's hopefully the death of the polling industry.
I will freely admit that I was hoping Shorten would win but I was a lot less confident in the polls than most because I read 538 and the Aussie polling was sending up those kinds of red flags - polls were amazingly consistent, both from one week to the next and across providers. If they were 100% legit they should've jumped around within at least about a 2-3% range given that's their margin of error, not produced week in and out of 51-52% vs 49-48%. The fact that that margin was also within their margin of error wasn't confidence inspiring either. We only seem to get actual changes of government with polling around the 54%+ mark for the winner to account for regional discrepancies with people voting for their local member.
 
Screw Adani for poisoning the water and exacerbating climate change, screw the LNP for not taking the environment seriously and screw Labor for enabling this garbage.
And News Corp for endlessly propagandising against the environment, against humanity, and for the police state (until that last one bit them in the arse, anyway*).

* But no doubt they'll be back true to form soon enough, presumably when it's a useful bludgeon against someone on the Approved Hate List
 

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I'm voting Greens next election, I'm absolutely disgusted with Palaszczuk for approving the Adani mine. If people in the regions are worried about jobs, they need to demand investment in growth industries, not destroying the environment for the sake of a mere 100 jobs, many of which will be FIFO no doubt.
 
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Couldn't see a better thread for this.

So good to see the abhorrent pedophile and pedophile enabler George Pell get his comeuppance today, may he rot in prison for the rest of his days.
 
I would rather neither, and vote Green. Sadly, I have to preference one of the majors on the ballot paper. Don't know if I can bring myself to preference the Liberals.
It's sad how often it turns to "how low can my preference get before it gets to a major". Sadly it never turns out to be far enough. One lot are MRAs, the next have a racialised taxation policy, these three are the One Nation diaspora... (yes, these are all real parties from the last election).
 

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Bill Shorten lost the unlosable election. Queensland is a joke.

The far right minor parties are a cancer that will continue to fester.
Qld saved the rest of australia from the left wing of the alp. Thk goodness for that.

The alp has just moved too far left brown dog that they now compete with the greens.

The alp used to be for everyday working Australia. Now they are filled with teachers sjw and career pokies who love to virtue signal and love globilasation when the rest of the world is moving away from it
 

LethalLions

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The alp will be in opposition for the next 20 years federally.

Just like the greens they can't work out that having a massive immigration policy (alp and greens policy) is actually harmful to the environment which they espouse so much and state they love.

If they were truly environmentally positive parties they would slash all immigration as a cornerstone of their policy. But no! This would destroy their inner city sjw fan base and we can't have that!

I used to vote alp but the alp abandoned me years ago. Old alp voters wouldn't recognize the party they have moved so far left
 

LethalLions

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The alp will be in opposition for the next 20 years federally.

Just like the greens they can't work out that having a massive immigration policy (alp and greens policy) is actually harmful to the environment which they espouse so much and state they love.

If they were truly environmentally positive parties they would slash all immigration as a cornerstone of their policy. But no! This would destroy their inner city sjw fan base and we can't have that!

I used to vote alp but the alp abandoned me years ago. Old alp voters wouldn't recognize the party they have moved so far left
 

Johnny Bananas

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The alp has just moved too far left brown dog that they now compete with the greens.

The alp used to be for everyday working Australia. Now they are filled with teachers sjw and career pokies who love to virtue signal and love globilasation when the rest of the world is moving away from it
Too far left? The coal-loving, refugee-mistreating ALP has moved too far left? Any Green would be appalled to hear them being compared with a party so deep in bed with big polluters and supporting Pacific Island gulags.

Also, I doubt you understand what virtue signalling is. You're welcome to think the rest of the world is moving away from globalisation if you believe Trump is anything more than short-term bluster, but I think you're in for a shock in the decade to come.

If they were truly environmentally positive parties they would slash all immigration as a cornerstone of their policy. But no! This would destroy their inner city sjw fan base and we can't have that!
You seem very angry at SJWs, how did they hurt you? People can be environmentally positive and support a larger population, by advocating for renewable energy, more sustainable farming practices and better public transport resources. If you don't agree with that, why be so mad about it, when Sustainable Australia exists to support big immigration cuts on environmental grounds? Go and help raise their profile if this matters to you.

Oh, and I'd add that the LNP don't care about "slashing all immigration" either, given they're quite happy to freeze immigration at its current levels.

I used to vote alp but the alp abandoned me years ago. Old alp voters wouldn't recognize the party they have moved so far left
What if they didn't, and it's you who has become more conservative?
 

LethalLions

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Too far left? The coal-loving, refugee-mistreating ALP has moved too far left? Any Green would be appalled to hear them being compared with a party so deep in bed with big polluters and supporting Pacific Island gulags.

Also, I doubt you understand what virtue signalling is. You're welcome to think the rest of the world is moving away from globalisation if you believe Trump is anything more than short-term bluster, but I think you're in for a shock in the decade to come.


You seem very angry at SJWs, how did they hurt you? People can be environmentally positive and support a larger population, by advocating for renewable energy, more sustainable farming practices and better public transport resources. If you don't agree with that, why be so mad about it, when Sustainable Australia exists to support big immigration cuts on environmental grounds? Go and help raise their profile if this matters to you.

Oh, and I'd add that the LNP don't care about "slashing all immigration" either, given they're quite happy to freeze immigration at its current levels.


What if they didn't, and it's you who has become more conservative?
Interesting to have a conversation with greens supporters. They are supposedly pro environment but also pro open borders?!

They love multiculturalism but live in inner city haunts eg bardon bulimba basically as far away from diversity as possible. Not too many greens supporters in inala or Kingston

Rather like de natale. hypocritical. Lives on the farm but used to drive a Ford territory gas guzzler! Or larissa. Lives in pullenvale but drives to leafy paddo where her inner city greens supporters live lol
 

Johnny Bananas

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They love multiculturalism but live in inner city haunts eg bardon bulimba basically as far away from diversity as possible. Not too many greens supporters in inala or Kingston
Yeah okay mate, how many Greens supporters do you know personally? I know several in the suburbs and some in country towns. And if you really think inner suburbs are devoid of diversity, I'm guessing you don't live in one. Are Greens not allowed to drive cars, ever? Perhaps by the same token you should never use an immigrant doctor or surgeon since you're not supportive of immigrants.
 

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Yeah okay mate, how many Greens supporters do you know personally? I know several in the suburbs and some in country towns. And if you really think inner suburbs are devoid of diversity, I'm guessing you don't live in one. Are Greens not allowed to drive cars, ever? Perhaps by the same token you should never use an immigrant doctor or surgeon since you're not supportive of immigrants.
Usually most inner burbs vote green eg bardon ashgrove paddington. More so than the outer to mid burbs. Not much diversity in paddo or bardon tbh.

No most greens are hypocritical. All for a big australia open borders but love the environment?!

Greens supporters also love public transport. Except greens senator larissa who drives to paddo from pullenvale. Go figure

No not supportive of fake greens into virtue signaling. Oh and btw I went to school in the middle of diversity here in lil old bris and am a masters educated professional

I can just point out hypocrisy when u see it
 

Johnny Bananas

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Usually most inner burbs vote green eg bardon ashgrove paddington. More so than the outer to mid burbs. Not much diversity in paddo or bardon tbh.
Except these areas all had a 50% primary vote for the LNP or close to it. In fact Ashgrove West went 60% LNP in its primary vote. The real Greens heartland is south of the river in West End which is very diverse, and so I don't know what you're taking about when you say Greens areas aren't diverse.

No most greens are hypocritical. All for a big australia open borders but love the environment?!
Incorrect. The Greens have never proposed open borders. Don't use silly straw man arguments.

Greens supporters also love public transport. Except greens senator larissa who drives to paddo from pullenvale. Go figure
Well duh, if you live in areas that aren't well supported by public transport, it's hard to use it regularly. Again, are you willing to go without the services of immigrant doctors, surgeons, dentists or any other professional because you're not in favour of immigrants?

No not supportive of fake greens into virtue signaling. Oh and btw I went to school in the middle of diversity here in lil old bris and am a masters educated professional
No one cares about your background or education. You throw around the term "virtue signalling" an awful lot, explain how they demonstrate it.
 
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No most greens are hypocritical. All for a big australia open borders but love the environment?!

Consider the fact that they might see borders as an irrelevant construct in a world where ecological collapse is a global issue. “Open borders” doesn’t mean more people on the planet. If I leave my back door open, a neighbour’s cat might wander in but doesn’t mean there are “more cats” in the ecosystem.

I mean I personally don’t believe in “open borders” (which in any case you seem to be using as a dishonest straw man argument to mock those who believe in a more compassionate approach to asylum seekers) but you have to be pretty deliberately obtuse to think that environmentalism and compassion for asylum seekers are inherently contradictory positions.
 

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Except these areas all had a 50% primary vote for the LNP or close to it. In fact Ashgrove West went 60% LNP in its primary vote. The real Greens heartland is south of the river in West End which is very diverse, and so I don't know what you're taking about when you say Greens areas aren't diverse.


Incorrect. The Greens have never proposed open borders. Don't use silly straw man arguments.


Well duh, if you live in areas that aren't well supported by public transport, it's hard to use it regularly. Again, are you willing to go without the services of immigrant doctors, surgeons, dentists or any other professional because you're not in favour of immigrants?


No one cares about your background or education. You throw around the term "virtue signalling" an awful lot, explain how they demonstrate it.
Greens do want open borders ...its in their platform. If they were truly greens they would be for nil population growth..but they can't do that as most of their supporters are for social justice come one come all

The greens voted against any population plebiscite in the senate a few weeks ago..to let the public have a say about whether we should limit immigration

So how many people should Australia let in per year? I would be happy with a po public vote on this but big business runs australia as well as treasury
 
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