Ablett priority picks

[thegerman]

I think in 2012 will be the best time to use it. Uncomprimised draft and three kids who could play straight away if we draft well.

 

[Pettas]

So for example if we finish 8th we will get picks 9,10,11 for that year?

 

[cynical]

good things come to those who wait

 

[pinion]

The first time we finish outside the 8 in the next 5 years. I think in 2014 will be the best year in terms of position in the draft.

also, we have to nominate prior to the season that we intend to use them. so it's not as simple as using them after a shit season .... we have to anticipate having a shit season or mega tank

 

[year of the cat]

No



See...so it's really better to bank them for 2012 when you would actually get a mid first round selection

Thanks for the clarification. 2012 sounds the go to me too in view of that.

 

[cat_fanatic]

2012 will not be uncompromised because of West Sydney.

 

[Ghost of Grinter]

I find it frustrating...

because at the end of the day, they aren't and won't ever compensate for losing Ablett.

Even in the long term, if we use them in 2012 or whenever the next best position we are in, we can't trade for someone of his quality with those picks, and they certainly don't reflect his draft pick value.

But what's even most annoying for me, is that if we draft with those picks - the players won't develop in time for any 'compensation' of Ablett... because they are worthless until we're low enough on the ladder, so we have to wait a couple of years, further reducing the chances of those ever picks alleviating the problem of losing our best player.

Compensation my arse.

I've been reasonably quiet so far - but thats my little vent there.

That is about as spot on as you get about the whole situation.

You get rewarded, the lower down the ladder you fall, strange system.

 

[pinion]

2012 will not be uncompromised because of West Sydney.

nope, 2010 is the gold coast draft and 2011 is the west sydney draft. and both of these drafts are already compromised by the amount of 17 year olds available to both of the new clubs

although i guess you could say 2012 will still be compromised by all of the compensation picks, it's still better than using them in 2010 or 2011

 

[Claude Balls]

So for example if we finish 8th we will get picks 9,10,11 for that year?

Picks 11, 12 and 13.

Remember, if we finish 8th we'll be 11 from the bottom. So we get our normal pick based on ladder position (11), one after that (12), and another after all the teams who missed the finals (would be 11, but we've already got 11 and 12 so it would be 13).

 

[Claude Balls]

I find it frustrating...

because at the end of the day, they aren't and won't ever compensate for losing Ablett.

Even in the long term, if we use them in 2012 or whenever the next best position we are in, we can't trade for someone of his quality with those picks, and they certainly don't reflect his draft pick value.

But what's even most annoying for me, is that if we draft with those picks - the players won't develop in time for any 'compensation' of Ablett... because they are worthless until we're low enough on the ladder, so we have to wait a couple of years, further reducing the chances of those ever picks alleviating the problem of losing our best player.

Compensation my arse.

I've been reasonably quiet so far - but thats my little vent there.

Too true. It's basically like saying to Geelong: 'we are ending your era now, sorry, but here's a leg-up for the next one in 5-7 years'.

 

[Smarty_]

I find it frustrating...

because at the end of the day, they aren't and won't ever compensate for losing Ablett.

Even in the long term, if we use them in 2012 or whenever the next best position we are in, we can't trade for someone of his quality with those picks, and they certainly don't reflect his draft pick value.

But what's even most annoying for me, is that if we draft with those picks - the players won't develop in time for any 'compensation' of Ablett... because they are worthless until we're low enough on the ladder, so we have to wait a couple of years, further reducing the chances of those ever picks alleviating the problem of losing our best player.

Compensation my arse.

I've been reasonably quiet so far - but thats my little vent there.

Couldn't agree more with you. What really annoys me even more is when Chris Judd left West Coast, the Eagles received Josh Kennedy and draft pick #3. The picks are 'useless' imo to use this year unless we can trade one or both for a quality established player

 

[Commando]

we need to tank one year to gain maximum value for these picks.

this sounds extreme but to extract as much as we can we should:

- hold for next year while our stars playout the twilight of their careers , crack at 'stealing 2011 flag'
- possibly trade one gun to gws for two more first rounders
- trade two or three more players for quality draft picks
- TANK (player development) year of pain 2012 play the vfl kids finish as low as possible.
- 2012-13 4 1st round picks in compo / plus whatever we can trade for

2017-2018 back to back premiers

 

[i_need_a_pencil]

we need to tank one year to gain maximum value for these picks.

this sounds extreme but to extract as much as we can we should:

- hold for next year while our stars playout the twilight of their careers , crack at 'stealing 2011 flag'
- possibly trade one gun to gws for two more first rounders
- trade two or three more players for quality draft picks
- TANK (player development) year of pain 2012 play the vfl kids finish as low as possible.
- 2012-13 4 1st round picks in compo / plus whatever we can trade for

2017-2018 back to back premiers

I agree. Tanking is the only way to get a decent return of those picks.

Buts its not going to happen anytime soon with the likes of Bartel, Selwood, Varcoe, Scarlett, Enright, Johnson, Chappy and Taylor... BAH! why do we have such competitive and talented players still around!

As sarcastic as that sounds, its still a genuine problem - a good problem, but as far as those picks go, its a problem.

 

[Premiers2007]

Has to be 2012!

Imagine the Uproar if we won the 2012 premiership then had three first round draft picks!

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Or trade them. A team like Port, Brisbane or North who are a few years off finals might like to take take them at a discount.

That's true...the picks only have value this year in a trade if there's a club prepared to bank them...there's no point us using them in the draft.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

2012 will not be uncompromised because of West Sydney.

GWS have the draft at the end of next year...the one at the end of 2012 is uncompromised.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

we need to tank one year to gain maximum value for these picks.

this sounds extreme but to extract as much as we can we should:

- hold for next year while our stars playout the twilight of their careers , crack at 'stealing 2011 flag'
- possibly trade one gun to gws for two more first rounders
- trade two or three more players for quality draft picks
- TANK (player development) year of pain 2012 play the vfl kids finish as low as possible.
- 2012-13 4 1st round picks in compo / plus whatever we can trade for

2017-2018 back to back premiers

We won't need to tank...in about 3-4 most of our premiership players will have retired...as soon as they do that, that's when we take the picks, as that year we'll finish low. Even let's say end of 2012, Ling, Scarlett, Enright, Mooney, Corey, and some others, will have retired, so I reckon that's the year.

Obviously having to nominate at the start of the year makes it somewhat guesswork but we would still get much better value in 2 years than what we get now.

 

[Turbocat]

What if we and the other clubs assess the 2012 draft as another "Super Draft" ?

Certainly there will be incentive to Tank. If a team finishes in the bottom group with less than 4 wins one might expect a group of 5 picks in the top 20.If a club would rupture their clubs immediate win rate over two seasons to get 2 early R1 picks , why would they not do it for one season? Some clubs have shown that they have no problem moving players, doing strange moves etc. Remember that if multiple picks are used , its the club at the bottom that is least effected. This "arrangement" of compensation may be the biggest incentive yet to Tank. Trouble is we don't Tank. So what to do.

So , while we at Geelong find it difficult to Tank , we may find after studying the issue that its in our clubs best interest to heavily refresh the side in a specific year. Now lets remember this side is mature , if they were grapes they'd be rotting on the vine. We are over due for new blood. Perhaps 4 new kids next year in 2011 but by 2012 we may have 12-14 spots if we are hard. Not tanking spots but real spots , it just depends on how hard we wan't to be and how we sell it.

At the start of our current ERA , we tried to ease the way by adding a few mature recruits and keeping a few loyal servants. It is always difficult to finish champions time and so it was for the like of Budda. This time we are dealing was Flag winners. So should we be weak? No. We will not tank but we should not be weak either. We should be cleaner this time , we should be playing no one in 2012 that will not be theoretically there in 2016 , we should not go the frenzied grab from outside our club for beaten up hacks , we should play the kids in our system add more and ramp our list up for ERA2. We should sort the Wheat from the Chaff and do it at a convenient time.

The pain of loosing Ablett is short term pain. I have said before I felt far worse when Colbert left. Ablett leaves a club in top condition ,some might disagree but he is big part of us being a Premiership club. Colbert left us sinking , and going down. Yet I hold no grudge. If we picks up 3 or 4 kids from all this that become a Corey, Enright or a Chapman it may all just work out for the best. Ablett has 3 years left at his best , we dont get what he is worth but what we get in the end is what it will all be judged on. Lets see how it pans out.

 

[DanA]

nope, 2010 is the gold coast draft and 2011 is the west sydney draft. and both of these drafts are already compromised by the amount of 17 year olds available to both of the new clubs

although i guess you could say 2012 will still be compromised by all of the compensation picks, it's still better than using them in 2010 or 2011

I think to date all picks awarded to other clubs have been end of first round at best which means our compensation picks will not be affected as ours are earlier.

Could be mistaken with Harbrow though.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

We don't tank, but it's the year we pick kids if their form is 50-50 with senior players, and as I said, retirements will do a fair bit of the work for us in that regard anyway.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

IMO people are under estimating the worth of these picks. Used next year they will deliver 2 1st rounders, one in the top ten, the other top 13 (if used this year it is a waste). That is a very useful guarantee for a club such as ours that is about to move from a period of dominanace through a period of transition. The salary cap room we now have will be very handy in that period too.

IMO Ablett has 1-2 years at the elite level left. In 2 years he will have played close to 250 games. Few mids hold their form past that stage. And despite what people say he is not going to dominant the forward line like his father did late in his career, as he doesn't have the aerial ability or height, and forward structures are so different these days.

Who knows, while Abletts career is winding down, we may have two new guns just starting theirs.

By the by, i am hoping Thompson resigns and we can get Hinkley. Lets start this new era now.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

IMO people are under estimating the worth of these picks. Used next year they will deliver 2 1st rounders, one in the top ten, the other top 13 (if used this year it is a waste). That is a very useful guarantee for a club such as ours that is about to move from a period of dominanace through a period of transition. The salary cap room we now have will be very handy in that period too.

IMO Ablett has 1-2 years at the elite level left. In 2 years he will have played close to 250 games. Few mids hold their form past that stage. And despite what people say he is not going to dominant the forward line like his father did late in his career, as he doesn't have the aerial ability or height, and forward structures are so different these days.

Who knows, while Abletts career is winding down, we may have two new guns just starting theirs.

By the by, i am hoping Thompson resigns and we can get Hinkley. Lets start this new era now.

No they won't because next year GWS have all the same picks that GC had this year. Used at the end of 2012, they will deliver what you say.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

No they won't because next year GWS have all the same picks that GC had this year. Used at the end of 2012, they will deliver what you say.

Ah, of course. Well, best to sit on them until 2012. Whatever the case a top 10 and top 15 pick are very useful. Then again they could handy if used as part of trade this or next year.

 

[Rosso]

Question. As the picks are tradeable, does that mean that if we trade a pick the pick remains either a) in the middle of the first round or b) immediately after our first pick or c) imediately after the new clubs first pick and can the other club hang onto these picks for 5 years?

It opens discussion as to if we traded a compensation pick to WCE, do they get a pick in the middle of the first round, after their first pick (ie no. 5) or after our first pick?

All of a sudden that pick can be big compensation.

 

[catempire]

In Wells We Trust.

IF (and that's a BIG if), we decide to use them this year, it will be because he sees some gems that we can still pick up in the 20s and 30s that will make us better off by using them now.