Suma Magic can you post the excel formula for your point index pls mate? i must be a smoothbrain since i can't get it to work right. got the afl version working ok.
Analysis Accurate points curve and table
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I think that's because i posted it wrong. Whoops, sorry.
It wasn't a pure formula, i just tried to recreate for the sake of the post.
The formula is:
=(AB$4*LN($V7))+(AB$3*X7)
AB4: -850
v7: pick number
ab3: 3000
x7: v7^1.002725
So i suppose that is
=(-850*LN(pick number))+(3000*(pick number^1.002725))
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I updated this and did it slightly differently. The result is similar. It's based on 54 pick for pick trades.
This is the table with the current points, and also the accurate points.
This chart illustrates the table data.
The chart below shows a plot of the 54 trades. It shows that the team trading down consistently received more points in the deal. Meaning that the curve over-values low picks.
The chart below is just a more zoomed in version of the chart above.
And a chart of the same 54 trades using the accurate points curve. It shows that the steeper points curve means that the team trading down wins just as much as the team trading up. So teams can't just improve their points balance just by trading down (or up).
And again, the chart above zoomed in.
So if you want to know how a picks for picks trade proposal compares to the market value of all historical trades, you can just refer to this table.
This is the table with the current points, and also the accurate points.
This chart illustrates the table data.
The chart below shows a plot of the 54 trades. It shows that the team trading down consistently received more points in the deal. Meaning that the curve over-values low picks.
The chart below is just a more zoomed in version of the chart above.
And a chart of the same 54 trades using the accurate points curve. It shows that the steeper points curve means that the team trading down wins just as much as the team trading up. So teams can't just improve their points balance just by trading down (or up).
And again, the chart above zoomed in.
So if you want to know how a picks for picks trade proposal compares to the market value of all historical trades, you can just refer to this table.
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This is great work Suma Magic
When I was playing around, I stopped points at pick 60 (3 rounds in a 20 club comp) , thought about 2x rounds given that drafts seem to be getting smaller, but it may increase again.
So maybe that end can be narrower/worth less?
Sideways related, but I’d like only real picks to hold a points value. Any compo picks etc should have zero value to help stop gaming the system, and to not further stuff over clubs who get pushed down the order.
When I was playing around, I stopped points at pick 60 (3 rounds in a 20 club comp) , thought about 2x rounds given that drafts seem to be getting smaller, but it may increase again.
So maybe that end can be narrower/worth less?
Sideways related, but I’d like only real picks to hold a points value. Any compo picks etc should have zero value to help stop gaming the system, and to not further stuff over clubs who get pushed down the order.
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