News Adam Saad nominates Carlton

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SkyhorseTamer

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Player X lays 7 blocks a game and allows player y to be a gun match winner. Y also has great chemistry with his ruckman Z. X could be a much lesser player at a club who doesn't value blocks as much or with a ruckman he can't gel with. Baseball is a much more individualistic game, like cricket, so it's far easier to quantify someone's impact on a game. Afl's a continuous game by nature that is extremely team oriented. Just gets too messy - according to my mate they like using their own metrics which are a fair bit more complex and rely a lot more on looking for traits in the way someone plays, not in a relative rating to someone else who plays the position by comparing how many kicks they each get.


Bad team a key defender has more intercept possessions than a good teams key defender. He's not necessarily a better player.
 

jaymasha

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You've gotta investigate what they use to compare players. The way afl is played our stats that are most commonly used don't do justice to 'game impact' very often. Especially for defenders.
It’s too raw atm to be accurate as in baseball. It’s numbers based. So it doesn’t look at the whole picture.
The AFL website also said that it uses their player ratings to help develop these WAR’s. General defenders baseline is 8.1. (I’m assuming rating points per game).

Saad averaged 10.56 RP per game- I just took his 2020 total (179.52) and divided it by 17.If the baseline is 8.1 (which to me, seems low if you’re above average) you only need to get 137.7.

What Aphex don’t disclose is how they get to these metrics.
 

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jaymasha

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I'm a stats man and studying it still and I just can't convince myself that WAR has any real meaning in AFL. Doesn't seem to translate to the way this sport works. Baseball is a world away in the way it works, how individuals can influence games etc. I'm highly sceptical of it as a measure and I've even shot my mate at a club that has a great history in its recruiting department a text about it, says they don't use it whatsoever.
It’s also easier to influence a sport when there are only 9 spots on the field as opposed to 18. I agree- war doesn’t seem applicable here. But I guess AFL clubs see merit if they’ve been interested for 7 years.
 

SkyhorseTamer

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It’s also easier to influence a sport when there are only 9 spots on the field as opposed to 18. I agree- war doesn’t seem applicable here. But I guess AFL clubs see merit if they’ve been interested for 7 years.
I'd assume the interest is in the concept and finding a way to comprehensively adapt it to the afl. Which could possibly make the person who figures that out a nice little bit of money.
 

jaymasha

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I'd assume the interest is in the concept and finding a way to comprehensively adapt it to the afl. Which could possibly make the person who figures that out a nice little bit of money.
Oh 100%. What it comes down to at the end of the day. It also doesn’t consider a shortened season. If Saad is only worth 1 extra win over a 22 game season, is he worth pick 7? I would give a second for him. If memory serves that’s what we gave up for doc?
 

gab213

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Oh 100%. What it comes down to at the end of the day. It also doesn’t consider a shortened season. If Saad is only worth 1 extra win over a 22 game season, is he worth pick 7? I would give a second for him. If memory serves that’s what we gave up for doc?
Doc at the time was a 13 game young player who was still an unknown quantity, struggling to get a game in a bad Brisbane team. It's not a good comparison to make with Saad.
 

azlou

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Oh 100%. What it comes down to at the end of the day. It also doesn’t consider a shortened season. If Saad is only worth 1 extra win over a 22 game season, is he worth pick 7? I would give a second for him. If memory serves that’s what we gave up for doc?
What did Geelong give up for touy similar in age at time of trade better kick similar speed that should be the trade mark I’m sure we know what a hbf is worth because we accepted it for touy any one remember what that was?
 

SurreyBlue

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What did Geelong give up for touy similar in age at time of trade better kick similar speed that should be the trade mark I’m sure we know what a hbf is worth because we accepted it for touy any one remember what that was?
Swap of picks. Tuohy and our 2nd for Smdts and Geelong’s 1st and 3rd. Worse trade ever from our point. Still can’t understand it.

Cats get Zach Tuohy and a 2017 second-round pick. Blues get Billie Smedts, pick 63 and a 2017 first-round pick. Who wins the trade?
 

azlou

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Swap of picks. Tuohy and our 2nd for Smdts and Geelong’s 1st and 3rd. Worse trade ever from our point. Still can’t understand it.
Our second probably wasn’t far of There 1st sounds like we lost that trade but SOS felt like the bigger picture trades where a win
I still have faith in Marchbank looks like a Geelong footballer tall athletic composed
Hope Dodor has a big picture view of trades
 

Brackets

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Swap of picks. Tuohy and our 2nd for Smdts and Geelong’s 1st and 3rd. Worse trade ever from our point. Still can’t understand it.
We could have drafted Kelly with that 2nd round pick, and then we'd already be holding the Eagles first round pick to trade for Saad.
 

Boltfromtheblue

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I'm a stats man and studying it still and I just can't convince myself that WAR has any real meaning in AFL. Doesn't seem to translate to the way this sport works. Baseball is a world away in the way it works, how individuals can influence games etc. I'm highly sceptical of it as a measure and I've even shot my mate at a club that has a great history in its recruiting department a text about it, says they don't use it whatsoever.
So you’re saying...don’t mention the WAR?
 

HARKER

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Swap of picks. Tuohy and our 2nd for Smdts and Geelong’s 1st and 3rd. Worse trade ever from our point. Still can’t understand it.
Stretching my memory a bit, but it did make sense as GWS wanted a first rounder and took the chance on taking the one we acquired from Geelong, for Tuohy.
It didn't matter that the two picks weren't far apart in the end, as GWS got what they asked for and we got Marchbank & Pickett.

That's the risk GWS took and the one you always take when trading/swapping future picks. See Adelaide.
 

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DangerousD

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Does anyone know the rules around what players can ask for in terms of their contract when entering the ND or PSD?

Could Sand or JD for example state the want a one year deal at $650,000 with an option for, 4 more years at the same money or 1 year at $1.2M?

The 1.2M is there to stop any other club taking them and would be ignored if they got to the club of choice. As it would be an extension agreed beforehand, even if they were to trade either player, they would still have to pay the $1.2M.

Surely no club even the * would draft a guy knowing they would have to pay him $1.2M in his second year.
 

DangerousD

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I'm a stats man and studying it still and I just can't convince myself that WAR has any real meaning in AFL. Doesn't seem to translate to the way this sport works. Baseball is a world away in the way it works, how individuals can influence games etc. I'm highly sceptical of it as a measure and I've even shot my mate at a club that has a great history in its recruiting department a text about it, says they don't use it whatsoever.
That’s the trick though isn’t it? See what elite sporting codes in other countries are doing and take the idea and mould it to our sport, I read years ago that we use some sort of software, I even remember SOS going to the states to do homework.

Im sure there is something out there that clubs are using as a comparison tool to compare players, IMO some players have big reputations and would command good picks at the trade table, but their output is similar to players who could be acquired much cheaper.
 

Sharks On A Plane

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Does anyone know the rules around what players can ask for in terms of their contract when entering the ND or PSD?

Could Sand or JD for example state the want a one year deal at $650,000 with an option for, 4 more years at the same money or 1 year at $1.2M?

The 1.2M is there to stop any other club taking them and would be ignored if they got to the club of choice. As it would be an extension agreed beforehand, even if they were to trade either player, they would still have to pay the $1.2M.

Surely no club even the * would draft a guy knowing they would have to pay him $1.2M in his second year.
I think they have to sign for two years as all drafted players automatically get two year deals. But can freely nominate their financial terms as far as I'm aware.
 

DangerousD

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I think they have to sign for two years as all drafted players automatically get two year deals. But can freely nominate their financial terms as far as I'm aware.
I guess I’m wondering to what extent can they nominate terms. Could Saad or JD state they want either 2 years at $2M or 5 years at $3M?

They choose the first one if a team they didn’t want picks them or the choos the second option if they get where they want.

I wonder how much $$$ we have to offer to pit others off, we supposedly paid Martin $1-$1.5M this year depending on who’s writing the article.

Just trying to figure out how else to make the player get to us if it came to it.
 

SkyhorseTamer

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That’s the trick though isn’t it? See what elite sporting codes in other countries are doing and take the idea and mould it to our sport, I read years ago that we use some sort of software, I even remember SOS going to the states to do homework.

Im sure there is something out there that clubs are using as a comparison tool to compare players, IMO some players have big reputations and would command good picks at the trade table, but their output is similar to players who could be acquired much cheaper.
Champion data established themselves basically as the hope to be the afls version of pro football focus. Now what pff did so well was spend time grading rookies and clubs started taking note of their grading success and I believe now pff is contracted by 25 ish of the 32 nfl clubs. Unfortunately for champion data, from what I've heard, the afl clubs tend to giggle at them and their stats are geared towards fans and sparking 'x is better than y' debates. They're lucky the afl media latched on to them as they weren't able to be to the afl what pff became to the nfl.
 

DangerousD

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Champion data established themselves basically as the hope to be the afls version of pro football focus. Now what pff did so well was spend time grading rookies and clubs started taking note of their grading success and I believe now pff is contracted by 25 ish of the 32 nfl clubs. Unfortunately for champion data, from what I've heard, the afl clubs tend to giggle at them and their stats are geared towards fans and sparking 'x is better than y' debates. They're lucky the afl media latched on to them as they weren't able to be to the afl what pff became to the nfl.
It would be really interesting to go back to when CD started doing their own mock draft and see how it stacked up to the real thing.
 

Stamos

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I guess I’m wondering to what extent can they nominate terms. Could Saad or JD state they want either 2 years at $2M or 5 years at $3M?

They choose the first one if a team they didn’t want picks them or the choos the second option if they get where they want.

I wonder how much $$$ we have to offer to pit others off, we supposedly paid Martin $1-$1.5M this year depending on who’s writing the article.

Just trying to figure out how else to make the player get to us if it came to it.
No, the player can only nominate 1 contract (minimum 2 years).
 

CJMB

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No, the player can only nominate 1 contract (minimum 2 years).
So they nominate 2 years at approx 1/2 to 2/3 of what the 5 year offer from us is, we sign them with that heavily loaded first 2 and after they’ve landed extend the contract for the remaining 3 years on the reduced amount to ‘even out’ the deal.

So for arguments sake if it’s $650k over 5, he nominates for the draft at $2M over 2 years. After signing with us we extend the contract for an addition 3 years at ~$417k per year.
 

Stamos

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So they nominate 2 years at approx 1/2 to 2/3 of what the 5 year offer from us is, we sign them with that heavily loaded first 2 and after they’ve landed extend the contract for the remaining 3 years on the reduced amount to ‘even out’ the deal.

So for arguments sake if it’s $650k over 5, he nominates for the draft at $2M over 2 years. After signing with us we extend the contract for an addition 3 years at ~$417k per year.
Yes, but just going from how we played it with Martin, this would be unlikely. They would probably just do the whole 5 year deal, with the big front-end.
 

CJMB

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Yes, but just going from how we played it with Martin, this would be unlikely. They would probably just do the whole 5 year deal, with the big front-end.
Both work I guess.

Is it like matching free agency offers where it’s purely looked at total dollars over a set number of years (ie desired front loading is ignored) or is it exact terms nominated?

ie: Club can pay 20% x5 instead of 35% x2 followed by 10% x3
 

Stamos

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Both work I guess.

Is it like matching free agency offers where it’s purely looked at total dollars over a set number of years (ie desired front loading is ignored) or is it exact terms nominated?

ie: Club can pay 20% x5 instead of 35% x2 followed by 10% x3
Have to pay as nominated.
 

Brutalitops

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Easy solution: Trade Pick 7 and a future 3rd round pick to Geelong for its two 1st Round Picks this year.

Use one of the 1st Round Picks on Saad in the the national draft (i.e. don't trade with Essendon). We can use the other 1st round pick together with our future 1st round pick next year to trade for a gun established midfielder like Clayton Oliver or Ollie Wines.

We will make the top 4 next year with that team.
Cant. Trading a future 3rd prevents trading a future 1st.
 
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