Adelaide 2019 = Geelong 2007

BigVic

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Thread starter #1
West Coast won the flag in 2006, Geelong missed finals, won premiership the following year


West Coast won flag in 2018, Adelaide missed Finals. History repeating

I see Adelaide 2018 season similar to that of Geelong 2006. Difference is that Geelong won the preseason cup.
 

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Dirty Bird

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#3
Better chance at being Geelong 1994
Lose gf, miss finals.
We’re on our last legs of 2-3 years before dropping baring amazing recruiting (which I wouldn’t count out tbh)
We don’t have a dynasty ahead of us like Geelong 07.
Like, I wouldn’t be shocked if we won it. But I don’t think there’s any chance in hell in backing it up in 2021 and 2023.
 

ashley12

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Moderator #11
Better chance at being Geelong 1994
Lose gf, miss finals.
Geelong made the GF after 1994 getting belted by Carlton.

Adelaide (the 2017 version) would be closer to Melbourne 2000 in terms of projecting their next few years. Potential for hot and cold between 8 and 14 wins a year equally as likely. Alternating between making finals and winning a few with not making the 8 both likely.

The added bonus of HFA and burden of travelling probably normalises theor range of potential results somewhat. I doubt any interstate team goes 21-1 anytime soon.
 

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#13
West Coast won the flag in 2006, Geelong missed finals, won premiership the following year


West Coast won flag in 2018, Adelaide missed Finals. History repeating

I see Adelaide 2018 season similar to that of Geelong 2006. Difference is that Geelong won the preseason cup.
One of the more interesting “spooky history repeating” tracks I think is the 5 year comparison between West Coast 2002-2006 and Richmond 2013-2017.

First person to spot the pattern (there’s 1 major difference in the 4th year) wins a prize...er...actually I don’t have the money for that...so you win my undying admiration as a very clever person instead.
 
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#15
One of the more interesting “spooky history repeating” tracks I think is the 5 year comparison between West Coast 2002-2006 and Richmond 2013-2017.

First person to spot the pattern (there’s 1 major difference in the 4th year) wins a prize...er...actually I don’t have the money for that...so you win my undying admiration as a very clever person instead.
Richmond played finals for 3 years straight, lost them all. Missed finals altogether in 4th year. Went on to win their first final in many years during the 5th year, and went on to win the flag.

Pretty sure West Coast never had the 4th year blues like the Tigers, but actually lost 4 straight elim finals. I remember some posters bringing up that history lesson after our 3rd finals loss, telling us about West coasts lesson from the 00's.

Except we never made finals that 4th year. :mad:
Bow down to your master.
 

Lsta062

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#18
The new Geelong 2007 was already Richmond in 2017.

View attachment 631739
There are some differences like Richmond VFL making the GF in 2017 but not winning the Premiership (were a kick away though) while Geelong VFL did in 2007. However, the trends did align very well overall.

What’s interesting though is that both Geelong and Richmond respectively finished clear 1st in the H&A season with no Premiership to show for it in 2008 and 2018 respectively, although Geelong did not miss the GF like we did. So our season in 2018 kinda did follow Geelong’s trend as well. Would love for Richmond to continue the trend this year, but I am not sure if we will at this point. It feels like we are much closer to the rest of the competition than Geelong were back in those days.
 
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#19
Geez haven’t played a game yet. Is there a comparison for someone who hasn’t won a final since the dawn of time. Oh yes Essendon 2019= Richmond 2017
 

Lsta062

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#20
Top 8 likely. Flag? No chance. Missed our chance in 2017.
Serious? No way. Adelaide are definitely a chance. If West Coast were able to overcome their inability to win at the MCG in previous years, then Adelaide are definitely capable. Mind you, West Coast was a team that got thumped in the 2015 Grand Final after doing well up to that point.
 

Kwality

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#22
Richmond played finals for 3 years straight, lost them all. Missed finals altogether in 4th year. Went on to win their first final in many years during the 5th year, and went on to win the flag.

Pretty sure West Coast never had the 4th year blues like the Tigers, but actually lost 4 straight elim finals. I remember some posters bringing up that history lesson after our 3rd finals loss, telling us about West coasts lesson from the 00's.

Except we never made finals that 4th year. :mad:
Bow down to your master.
IF you (Tiges) were looking to the Eagles try the early 90s when we won in 92, fell in the prelim in 93, won again in 94. Not sure its relevant really.
 
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