Banter Adelaide Board's Combined Politics/Covid discussion Banter Thread (WARNING NOT FOR THE FAINT-HEARTED)

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kirky

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Yeah it was, going to be interesting how this government works given it looks like the greens and teal are going to have a big say.

But it wasn’t just climate change, ScoMo was hated, that’s all we’ve been hearing from anyone who didn’t vote Libs, but they also didn’t like Labor so they’ve piled their votes into the greens and independents as protest.

Finally the government has been in for 3 terms and when you’ve got an unpopular leader you’re pushing s**t uphill.

The issue is the LNP have lost so many moderates leaving the right, it’s going to be a challenge winning these voters back. Labor are going to really duck up and the parliament not work for that to happen.

Only in the Senate, as the ALP will in all likelihood will end up with a majority in the HOR.

If you have a look at the individual seats where the Teals were - ALP vote strategically declined. The ALP/Greens primary vote will be 45%.

Now what is known

Swing is currently 3.5% and will end up with 2PP around 52-48 or slightly higher which is consistent with the polls in the last week
ALP primary vote will still be about the same as 2013 and yet will form government (increasing seats from 55 to around 76+)
Coalition primary vote will drop around 10% from 2013 and will cost them around 30 seats (from 90 seats won in 2013) and its primary has been dropping each election in 2016, 2019 and now 2022.
 

Cap

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All I’ll say is I’m grateful this mindset of rewarding the likes of Hanson, Palmer, Kelly etc by giving them more votes/power/influence seemingly is only held by a very small group of people across the country. We’re better off for it.
I wonder if there has ever been this many independents at once?
 

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George Kramer

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Only in the Senate, as the ALP will in all likelihood will end up with a majority in the HOR.

If you have a look at the individual seats where the Teals were - ALP vote strategically declined. The ALP/Greens primary vote will be 45%.

Now what is known

Swing is currently 3.5% and will end up with 2PP around 52-48 or slightly higher which is consistent with the polls in the last week
ALP primary vote will still be about the same as 2013 and yet will form government (increasing seats from 55 to around 76+)
Coalition primary vote will drop around 10% from 2013 and will cost them around 30 seats (from 90 seats won in 2013) and its primary has been dropping each election in 2016, 2019 and now 2022.
But they need the Senate, so effectively this will control what happens in the lower house as Labor won’t push what they can’t get through
 

1970crow

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Surely after last night's results it's hard not argue it's gone further right when so many left/ moderates have lost seats.?

Peter Dutton opposition leader. He is the head of the Right Wing faction.

tw
Surely after last night's results it's hard not argue it's gone further right when so many left/ moderates have lost seats.?

Peter Dutton opposition leader. He is the head of the Right Wing faction.

No, that’s flawed. You’re retrofitting policy direction to a result. It makes no sense to do that. There’s other reasons that liberals lost, name a single policy that shifted them further right. You can’t.
 

kirky

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But they need the Senate, so effectively this will control what happens in the lower house as Labor won’t push what they can’t get through

Well as far as I can see the majority of things the Greens and Teals want are the same as the ALP - action on climate change, Federal ICAC (with teeth).
 

George Kramer

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Well as far as I can see the majority of things the Greens and Teals want are the same as the ALP - action on climate change, Federal ICAC (with teeth).
The Greens want more than that, is Labor going to wipe student debt for example?
 

1970crow

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Ok, so if we can't agree the Libs have gone further right. That's fine . I can live with the fact I got it wrong.

But surely we all can agree climate change was a bigger deal than some would like to believe.?

I mean Greens are going to win a seat in Brisbane

Which is weird given they’ve committed to the same nett zero goal. I wouldn’t read too much into a single election. Wait and see how many vote greens again when higher taxes are the solution to climate change. Plus there’s a whole generation of boomers that can afford not to worry about higher taxes, they’ve already paid all theirs.
 

Vader

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Yes. The Labor primary vote went down – just not by as much as the fall in the LNP Primary
As pointed out elsewhere, part of this was due to "strategic voting", with Labor voters giving their first preferences to the Teals. However, I doubt that this accounts for the whole 2% drop from 2019.

Before the WA results started coming in the ALP vote was at 31.4%, which was apparently the lowest ALP vote since 1919.

This is just the latest step in an ongoing trend, of people moving away from the major parties.

This wasn't a great election result for the ALP, even though they have won back Government. It was a huge result for the Greens & Teals.
 

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Kane McGoodwin

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Ok, so if we can't agree the Libs have gone further right. That's fine . I can live with the fact I got it wrong.

But surely we all can agree climate change was a bigger deal than some would like to believe.?

I mean Greens are going to win a seat in Brisbane
A lack of a decent consistent energy policy & the environment was the biggest policy issue in this election.

Voters became well aware the moderate liberals have been held hostage by the Narionals & conservatives... & ironicly it's the moderates who have paid the price losing many of their seats.

Unfortunately, the Coalition are likely to move even further to the right with less conservatives.
 

1970crow

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All I’ll say is I’m grateful this mindset of rewarding the likes of Hanson, Palmer, Kelly etc by giving them more votes/power/influence seemingly is only held by a very small group of people across the country. We’re better off for it.

9% of the primary vote compared to 12% voting greens. It’s a shame the greens have won seats, we’re better off without it.

It’s weird how people can look at the greens vote and crap on about climate emergencies when their vote is 3 people per 100 greater than Hanson and Palmer. Talk about partisan agendas.
 

Vader

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I wonder if there has ever been this many independents at once?
In overall numbers, it's a definite no. In terms of percentages - maybe... but you'd have to go back to the pre-WWI years, when the parliament was made up of all sorts of parties that no longer exist.
 

jenny61_99

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Which is weird given they’ve committed to the same nett zero goal. I wouldn’t read too much into a single election. Wait and see how many vote greens again when higher taxes are the solution to climate change. Plus there’s a whole generation of boomers that can afford not to worry about higher taxes, they’ve already paid all theirs.
Ah, but who are they going to tax? If they are going after the grubby corporates who don’t pay their fair share, I’m all for that, or the top 1% earners that also don’t pay their fair share.
 

Doctor B

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The WA massacre - these are the swings to Labor across WA.

Canning 7.3%, O'Connor 9.3%, Durack 9.9%, Burt 10.1%, Freo 10.4%, Brand 10.5%, Forrest 10.8%, Moore 11.3%, Hasluck 11.8%, Perth 12.7%, Tangney 13.3%, Swan 13.6%, Pearce 15%
 

1970crow

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Well as far as I can see the majority of things the Greens and Teals want are the same as the ALP - action on climate change, Federal ICAC (with teeth).

If the Greens limited themselves to the environment I’d have voted for them. Unfortunately they’re just flat out nuts, just the other end of the spectrum to Palmer/Hanson.
 

1970crow

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As pointed out elsewhere, part of this was due to "strategic voting", with Labor voters giving their first preferences to the Teals. However, I doubt that this accounts for the whole 2% drop from 2019.

Before the WA results started coming in the ALP vote was at 31.4%, which was apparently the lowest ALP vote since 1919.

This is just the latest step in an ongoing trend, of people moving away from the major parties.

This wasn't a great election result for the ALP, even though they have won back Government. It was a huge result for the Greens & Teals.

It’s not rocket science, if Pectoral Pete took over from ScoMo 12 months ago, liberal wouldn’t have suffered any primary vote loss. As much as I can’t stand Dutton, just not being ScoMo would have delivered a better result for the libs. Given how much his personality was on the nose, I doubt there’s much to take from this election. Labor would have won last time if not for 2 idiotic policies that alienated their historic core.
 

ADL9798

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9% of the primary vote compared to 12% voting greens. It’s a shame the greens have won seats, we’re better off without it.

It’s weird how people can look at the greens vote and crap on about climate emergencies when their vote is 3 people per 100 greater than Hanson and Palmer. Talk about partisan agendas.
If the Greens limited themselves to the environment I’d have voted for them. Unfortunately they’re just flat out nuts, just the other end of the spectrum to Palmer/Hanson.
I gave my thoughts on this the other day. Wherever you sit on the political spectrum, it’s foolish to claim there’s any kind of moral equivalence between the Greens and the likes of One Nation, or that the Greens policy platforms pose a greater threat to Australian prosperity and wellbeing.

Is he? Everything in moderation, and fortunately the centre of gravity for Australian politics and economic pragmatism is such that it's unlikely he or the Greens would ever see 100% of their demands met, but f*** me if you forced me to choose I'd rather Bandt at the reigns implementing his ideas than seeing any of the following given carte blanche to run the country according to their views:
  • Pauline Hanson
  • Malcolm Roberts
  • Craig Kelly
  • George Christensen
  • Corey Bernardi
  • Alex Antic
  • Matt Canavan
  • Peter Dutton
  • Angus Taylor
  • Barnaby Joyce
  • Michael McCormack
  • Bob Katter
Some of the bed wetting about Bandt and the Greens is a bit deranged to be honest. Foolish to suggest there's moral equivalence between them and any of the above.

Am I voting for them? No.

Do things like addressing climate change and economic inequality pose more of an existential threat to Australian prosperity and wellbeing than some of the policy ideas put forward or supported by these names, or the shameless self-serving corruption and conspiracy driven politics some of them have engaged in? Come on...
 

Mr_Moogle

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I don’t see Labor ever losing in Victoria, but surely you’re aware that this was a federal election.
Did you even read the tweet in the post I was quoting? The Liberal member was saying they were expecting a swing away from Labor in Melbourne's outer suburbs on account of Dan's policies and it never eventuated.

Let's also not try to pretend that state election results don't have implications for Federal elections. Look at the swing in WA.
 
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