Banter Adelaide Board's Combined Politics/Covid discussion Banter Thread (WARNING NOT FOR THE FAINT-HEARTED)

Status
Not open for further replies.
There is a thought process that the Liberals will eventually become a minor party over many elections unless they change and move back to the centre. There are starting to become irrelevant in the big cities.

The Liberals get just over 23% of the primary vote plus another 7.5% jointly with Nationals in Qld.

Honestly I think the moderates need to split & start their own party... which could govern as a coalition with either side.
 
Dec 29, 2000
23,400
20,538
AFL Club
Adelaide
Abbott moved them to the right, Morrison moved them further to the right. They are no longer the "broad church" that Howard used to talk about. Unless they can find a way to move back to the centre, they will never again be a "broad church" and will never again be electable. Moving back to the centre will be incredibly difficult for them, partly because their right wing will work to prevent it from happening (see today's comments by Canavan & Antic), and partly because the void they left in the centre has now been filled by the Teals.

Abbott & Morrison have effectively destroyed the Liberal Party, and consigned it to the dustbin of history.

And I love it that they destroyed themselves.
 
Oct 14, 2005
52,178
36,117
Canberra
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Norwood, Adelaide Crows
Fine when they're truly Independents not financially backed and being used as vehicle by a multi millionaire to further his and his supporters business interests like the new member for Fowler Dai Le and Hellen Haines in Indi....no teal in their election victory festivities.
You RWNJs really do have an overblown sense of entitlement. You do NOT have the right to rule, just because you've held these electorates forever. You need to listen to the voters, and govern in their interest - not in the interests of your fossil fuel donors, and the hard right lunatics on the fringe.

The reason these Teal independents were elected is because the Liberal Party allowed itself to become beholden to the extreme right wing. They became arrogant, and stopped listening to their own base. They created a void, which the Teals have now filled. The Teals were born directly from the LNP's failings.

Good luck ever getting them out again - the Libs haven't regained Indi or Warringah, and I can't see them regaining many (if any) of the new Teal seats either.
 
Jun 6, 2010
19,564
19,395
Viana do Castelo (Portugal)
AFL Club
Adelaide
Abbott moved them to the right, Morrison moved them further to the right. They are no longer the "broad church" that Howard used to talk about. Unless they can find a way to move back to the centre, they will never again be a "broad church" and will never again be electable. Moving back to the centre will be incredibly difficult for them, partly because their right wing will work to prevent it from happening (see today's comments by Canavan & Antic), and partly because the void they left in the centre has now been filled by the Teals.

Abbott & Morrison have effectively destroyed the Liberal Party, and consigned it to the dustbin of history.

Unless the generational voting in country areas ends for the nationals, they will keep the right wing nutjob mantra line. The Nats will learn though when due to their arrogance and refusals to budge, the LNP are relegated to the irrelevent status and most of their seats become filled with independents.
 

Doctor B

Club Legend
Jan 17, 2015
2,809
6,402
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Glenelg
Do they realise they are becoming dinosaurs?

Want to see more unhinging.

So can anyone on the right show me the left wing shows that are like Sky After Dark - Credlin, Sharri, Paul Murray?

C'mon mate they're completely impartial on Sky!
Would never get emotional after an election loss.

FTUXm1KVIAAUtcc
 
Dec 29, 2000
23,400
20,538
AFL Club
Adelaide
6D6CBCA2-E05D-4992-B1AF-5BFF85AE41E1.jpeg


The ALP won’t have won by default if they have a majority of seats - what gear is Dennis Shanahan on?

ALP have won the following seats off the Liberals - Reid, Robertson, Boothby, Chisholm, Higgins, Swan, Pearce, Hasluck, Tangney and likely to win Bennelong and Deakin and as yet haven’t lost one to the Liberals.

Mordor journalists are comedy writers.
 
Jun 6, 2010
19,564
19,395
Viana do Castelo (Portugal)
AFL Club
Adelaide
Fine when they're truly Independents not financially backed and being used as vehicle by a multi millionaire to further his and his supporters business interests like the new member for Fowler Dai Le and Hellen Haines in Indi....no teal in their election victory festivities.

One good thing to come out of the election is the electorate's flat out rejection of the ALP tryhard and Albanese captain's pick Kristine Keneally. Though I guess there's every chance Albanese will parachute her into the Senate if a vacancy becomes available or he insists someone makes way.

Independents have donors. to suggest that they are irrelevant because they have donors is kind of a silly take when they were voted in. If they do a good job, they may almost make it impossible on their own for the LNP to regain power for at least a decade.
 
Mar 3, 2022
4,539
5,922
AFL Club
Adelaide
Fine when they're truly Independents not financially backed and being used as vehicle by a multi millionaire to further his and his supporters business interests

Oh come on. Really even if that were the case, are you naive enough to believe there is anyone who isn't getting their strings pulled in some way? Donations here or favour there?

They are independents and that's the end of it. Whinging a la Credlin is just sour grapes.

One good thing to come out of the election is the electorate's flat out rejection of the ALP tryhard and Albanese captain's pick Kristine Keneally.

Agreed.
 
Aug 9, 2019
37,994
64,900
Victorian Central Highlands
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Panthers, GWV Rebels, Central Augusta
Harsh... We all know why the Liberals should rule forever. They're the cream of society - rich, thick, and full of clots.
LOL, the majority of rich well off people actually live in the seats the Teal candidates got elected in. Not one of the Teal candidates comes from a battler's background.
 
So Palmer helped ScoMo last election, but supporting him apparently backfired this election...though probably only the difference between a minority & majority ALP government...

 
LOL, the majority of rich well off people actually live in the seats the Teal candidates got elected in. Not one of the Teal candidates comes from a battler's background.
So similar to the Liberals, except they support climate change & ICAC.

The new improved Liberals.... ;)
 
Oct 14, 2005
52,178
36,117
Canberra
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Norwood, Adelaide Crows
One good thing to come out of the election is the electorate's flat out rejection of the ALP tryhard and Albanese captain's pick Kristine Keneally.
Agreed. Indeed, Keneally's loss to an independent could well be just the first of many seats which will eventually be lost by the ALP to independents, at coming elections. Keneally has now stood for the House of Reps twice, and been rejected by the voters twice. She's not the great loss that some in the ALP seem to think she is.
Though I guess there's every chance Albanese will parachute her into the Senate if a vacancy becomes available or he insists someone makes way.
Sadly, this will probably happen... again. I think the Senate is a more likely option. I can see Albanese offering a sweet Ambassadorship to one of the NSW Senators, to create the vacancy for her to fill. Getting her into the House of Reps would require a by-election, and I can't see them risking that - given that she's already failed to get herself elected twice.
 
Oct 13, 2017
20,152
33,163
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Liverpool, Glenelg, tigers
Honestly I think the moderates need to split & start their own party... which could govern as a coalition with either side.
really though… why are these conservatives in a “liberal“ party?.. if it was the US it would be akin to a shitload of Republicans all joining the Democrats!.. theres absolutely nothing “liberal” about them.

it should be the conservatives that started their own party.. why didnt they?.. because they know their arse backward 1950’s religious views are electorial poison..

so they have taken over the once great Liberal party and sneak in under the banner of being “liberals”.

but like we’ve seen at a state level in Victoria and WA.. and nearly in SA before the SA liberals realised what was going on and put a stop to it.. we’ve had the Mormons, Pentacostals and the ACL try and force their hard right christian soldiers into the liberal partys and in vic and wa they have succeeded now making these state liberal party’s pretty much unelectable..

the Australia Liberal Party is meant to be a moderate centre/centre right party.. it has now been dragged to the right/hard right. if it doesnt change and move back toward the centre its doomed to the same fate as the wa and vic liberal party’s..
 

ADL9798

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 18, 2009
14,481
16,908
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Liverpool

Interesting. Quite a shift for Labor who are now in Turnbull territory, presumably having been scared away from a big progressive policy agenda by the outcome of the last election. Coalition drifting closer to One Nation.

67u4Zzf.png

Interesting looking back at this with hindsight.

It’s self evident that Labor and the independents clearly did a better job of occupying the middle ground where the majority of voters sit this time around, and pinched a lot of moderates away from the Coalition in the process. In 2019, it was the Coalition who did a better job of reading the room and finding the peak of this bell curve.

The lesson from both elections surely that you neglect the moderate centre in favour of chasing votes at the left/right peripheries in this country at your peril. We are not America. Bizarre then to hear from some Coalition politicians and supporters that they feel they lost this election because they weren’t far enough to the right.

One interesting side effect of Labor’s strategy is that it looks like at least some of the uplift in Greens voting this election has come from them picking up the more left wing/progressive voters that Labor left behind in that top left quadrant of the graph.
 

fortunatecrow

Premiership Player
Oct 17, 2015
3,471
4,759
AFL Club
Adelaide
Agreed. Indeed, Keneally's loss to an independent could well be just the first of many seats which will eventually be lost by the ALP to independents, at coming elections. Keneally has now stood for the House of Reps twice, and been rejected by the voters twice. She's not the great loss that some in the ALP seem to think she is.
Plays the non-statistical role?
 
Reducing primary vote of the majors. Has been dropping for the last 5 elections - by 17%, with the biggest 6.2% decline this election.

We are moving away from the major 2 parties & this trend is likely to continue as younger people don't support the majors as much as older people.

Minority governments may become the norm...

Year, ALP, LNP, Total, change from last
2022 32.8, 35.7, 68.5, -6.2
2019 33.3, 41.4, 74.7, -2.0
2016 34.7, 42.0, 76.7, -2.3
2013 33.4, 45.6, 79.0, -2.3
2010 38.0, 43.3, 81.3, -4.2
2007 43.4, 42.1, 85.5
 

MrKK

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 11, 2012
6,740
16,691
City of churches
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Sturt, Southampton FC, LSU
Reducing primary vote of the majors. Has been dropping for the last 5 elections - by 17%, with the biggest 6.2% decline this election.

We are moving away from the major 2 parties & this trend is likely to continue as younger people don't support the majors as much as older people.

Minority governments may become the norm...

Year, ALP, LNP, Total, change from last
2022 32.8, 35.7, 68.5, -6.2
2019 33.3, 41.4, 74.7, -2.0
2016 34.7, 42.0, 76.7, -2.3
2013 33.4, 45.6, 79.0, -2.3
2010 38.0, 43.3, 81.3, -4.2
2007 43.4, 42.1, 85.5
Crazy that Labor lost the last 3 elections with a primary vote higher than that which will give them an overall majority this time around.
 
Oct 13, 2017
20,152
33,163
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Liverpool, Glenelg, tigers
Interesting looking back at this with hindsight.

It’s self evident that Labor and the independents clearly did a better job of occupying the middle ground where the majority of voters sit this time around, and pinched a lot of moderates away from the Coalition in the process. In 2019, it was the Coalition who did a better job of reading the room and finding the peak of this bell curve.

The lesson from both elections surely that you neglect the moderate centre in favour of chasing votes at the left/right peripheries in this country at your peril. We are not America. Bizarre then to hear from some Coalition politicians and supporters that they feel they lost this election because they weren’t far enough to the right.

One interesting side effect of Labor’s strategy is that it looks like at least some of the uplift in Greens voting this election has come from them picking up the more left wing/progressive voters that Labor left behind in that top left quadrant of the graph.
some excellent points and analysis.. but I will pull you up on the “we are not America”.. I’d say we arent that far off America..

the advantage we have over the US is that we have compulsory voting in this country and people are very willing and very able to vote without restrictions. If the US had the same the hard right Republicans would never ever see the inside of capitol hill or the Whitehouse..

but they dont have compulsory voting and they have a Republican Party that has done everything it can to restrict voting rights, make it incredibly difficult for those who it perceives to be liberal to vote and gerrymander the electorial boundaries that its barely a democracy anymore in the US..

Barely half the population votes and of those that do.. Millions more vote Democrat and yet the Republicans nearly always control both houses..

i read somewhere the other day something along the lines that the Republicans in Florida are trying to gerrymander the electorial boundaries that much in Florida currently that even though 75% of the votes would be for Democrats 15 out of the 20 or so seats available would end up going to Republicans. its just disgustingly rigged.

and I will say the Democrats aren't exactly innocent when it comes to drawing up electorial boundaries and doing some gerrymandering of their own..

luckily here in Australia we have an independent electorial commission that sets/adjusts the electorial boundaries and runs our elections, we have compulsory voting and our elections are free, accessable and fair to all.
 
Sep 30, 2014
18,956
40,125
AFL Club
Adelaide
Abbott moved them to the right, Morrison moved them further to the right. They are no longer the "broad church" that Howard used to talk about. Unless they can find a way to move back to the centre, they will never again be a "broad church" and will never again be electable. Moving back to the centre will be incredibly difficult for them, partly because their right wing will work to prevent it from happening (see today's comments by Canavan & Antic), and partly because the void they left in the centre has now been filled by the Teals.

Abbott & Morrison have effectively destroyed the Liberal Party, and consigned it to the dustbin of history.
I think Turnbull is as much to blame as anyone. He was the petrol on the flams for Abbott and Morrison to take over, and why Dutton will probably lead, because the king makers in the Liberal Party don't want another Malcolm.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back