List Mgmt. Adelaide Crows 2021 List Management thread

[skam85]

So we need talent, especially ruckmen, but you don't want us recruiting from the best source to find AFL capable ruckmen (and that's before factoring in we really need a depth ruck, more than an upgrade to our number 1)?

Righto.

We just need to find the next ROB who can be ROB when ROB becomes cooked Sauce. Simple!

At the moment we're more in the Luke Lowden/Angus Graham territory unfortunately. Shudder.

 

[skam85]

Keays is fine but we've recently cycled through Crocker, Stengle and Frampton as well to get to him

Is a 1 out of 4 hit rate worthwhile? And all of those other guys have had games til we work out they're not at the level which is fewer games for draftees

Obviously clubs won't just get 100% of their players via the draft but I'd be wary of going too heavily down the recycled player path as Carlton tried

At least we've offloaded Crocker and Stengle nice and quick. Barely 20 games between the three of those guys. Billy on the other hand...

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Recruiting fringe players is low cost in one sense, but the game time they take up at the expense of someone else is a huge cost.

We don't want them to just make up numbers in the 22 and just be depth players... but realistically what are they ever destined to be?

The priority IMHO needs to be on developing players who will be in our best half dozen or dozen players in time. Not who will be the handy role player who can do a job. Those are the last pieces of the puzzle.

 

[maxlilly]

We just need to find the next ROB who can be ROB when ROB becomes cooked Sauce. Simple!

At the moment we're more in the Luke Lowden/Angus Graham territory unfortunately. Shudder.

Maybe a ROB that can kick.
That's it though, why recycle through the Lowden, Grahams, Hunters, Strachans and Framptons instead of drafting someone that could become a #1 ruckman in the future

 

[Mutineer]

I would just like to see the club recruit a best 22 player from another club instead of fringe players.
How many players have we traded in over the last 10 years that have played 100 games for the Crows ?
Lynch ? any more ?

There would be a shedload of best 22 AFL midfielders who would struggle to get a game at the Doggies currently.

Marcus Bontompelli, Jackson Macrae, Bailey Smith, Josh Dunkley, Adam Treloar, Tom Liberatore, Lachie Hunter, Patrick Lipinski, Mitch Wallis etc.

 

[maxlilly]

There we be a shedload of best 22 AFL midfielders who would struggle to get a game at the Doggies currently.

Marcus Bontompelli, Jackson Macrae, Bailey Smith, Josh Dunkley, Adam Treloar, Tom Liberatore, Lachie Hunter, Patrick Lipinski, Mitch Wallis etc.

Their midfield is just loaded with talent. And then they added Treloar in the off season.
It almost makes you want to cry when you compare it to our midfield.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

There would be a shedload of best 22 AFL midfielders who would struggle to get a game at the Doggies currently.

Marcus Bontompelli, Jackson Macrae, Bailey Smith, Josh Dunkley, Adam Treloar, Tom Liberatore, Lachie Hunter, Patrick Lipinski, Mitch Wallis etc.

It's a good point

A fringe player from a contender is not the same as a fringe player from a struggler

Contending clubs with an oversupply in one area of the ground...?

 

[maxlilly]

It's a good point

A fringe player from a contender is not the same as a fringe player from a struggler

Contending clubs with an oversupply in one area of the ground...?

But how are we going to beat the Dogs or other top teams by grabbing their 8th-9th ranked midfielder ?
The Dogs ended up getting the Pies 2- 3rd ranked in Treloar

 

[Vader]

Recruiting fringe players is low cost in one sense, but the game time they take up at the expense of someone else is a huge cost.

We don't want them to just make up numbers in the 22 and just be depth players... but realistically what are they ever destined to be?

The priority IMHO needs to be on developing players who will be in our best half dozen or dozen players in time. Not who will be the handy role player who can do a job. Those are the last pieces of the puzzle.

We need to get them in, and give them enough opportunities to identify whether we have a Lynch/Jenkins/Seedsman/Keays, or a Crocker/Menzel/Frampton/Hampton. We also need to be reasonably quick about identifying whether or not they're going to make it, so we don't waste games on journeymen which we could/should be investing in our youth. How many is enough? Probably around 6-7 games for a mature aged player, maybe a few more for younger ones like Hately.

 

[Mutineer]

But how are we going to beat the Dogs or other top teams by grabbing their 8th-9th ranked midfielder ?
The Dogs ended up getting the Pies 2- 3rd ranked in Treloar

Pretty hard for Lipinski to elevate up the pecking order when he can't get continuity of games currently...it's all about getting the opportunities, hell Mitch Wallis would also be a starting mid in most teams currently but he's in the same boat as Lipinski, when they do get to play it's often up forward with limited midfield minutes.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

But how are we going to beat the Dogs or other top teams by grabbing their 8th-9th ranked midfielder ?
The Dogs ended up getting the Pies 2- 3rd ranked in Treloar

The same way the Lions ended up with ours

 

[skam85]

Carlton have been bad at getting recycled players in, as they've gone waaaay over the top re: the amount they've brought into their club, to the point where it affected the amount of youth they could add to their list

And then they went and added youth like Blaine Boekhurst and Paddy Dow. No wonder they're going nowhere fast.

 

[skam85]

I would just like to see the club recruit a best 22 player from another club instead of fringe players.
How many players have we traded in over the last 10 years that have played 100 games for the Crows ?
Lynch ? any more ?

They do have to want to come though which seems to be the biggest problem.
We did try for Dusty remember.

 

[Vader]

Maybe a ROB that can kick.
That's it though, why recycle through the Lowden, Grahams, Hunters, Strachans and Framptons instead of drafting someone that could become a #1 ruckman in the future

We don't need to have a future #1 ruckman on our list right now. Rucks take around 3-4 years to develop, and ROB probably has 6-7 left on the clock. Right now our need is for the Lowden/Graham/Strachan type, who can come in if something happens to ROB.

If we have a young ruckman now, who thinks they should be getting regular AFL game time, then they're just going to get frustrated and look for a trade. ROB isn't going anywhere, anytime soon, so we'd just be developing a ruckman for another club. I don't see a whole lot of value in that.

We will need to look at drafting a young developing ruckman in about 2 years time, which would provide us with an AFL-ready kid around the time that ROB starts to decline. Until then, we have no need for anything other than journeymen rucks.

 

[Danger in Texas]

Maybe a ROB that can kick.
That's it though, why recycle through the Lowden, Grahams, Hunters, Strachans and Framptons instead of drafting someone that could become a #1 ruckman in the future

You're onto something here, though. I'd argue we might need to draft a ruck to develop in the next couple of off-seasons that, once developed, can immediately step in once ROB becomes cooked. If you look at some of the current rucks around the league (not counting prodigy talents like Grundy and Nic Nat), they all take a while to break out

Goldstein - year 5
ROB - year 5
Witts - year 6
Gawn - year 6
S Martin - year 7

Even someone like Matthew Flynn is only just starting to look good for GWS this year, in his 6th year

Draft one in the rookie draft or later in the ND this year, give him time to develop and we'll have a ready-made replacement for ROB by the time the middle of the decade comes around

 

[skam85]

Maybe a ROB that can kick.
That's it though, why recycle through the Lowden, Grahams, Hunters, Strachans and Framptons instead of drafting someone that could become a #1 ruckman in the future

Yeah, like Melbourne did with Luke Jackson. Smart, forward thinking and will be more than ready made when Gawn retires.

 

[Vader]

It's a good point

A fringe player from a contender is not the same as a fringe player from a struggler

Contending clubs with an oversupply in one area of the ground...?

Yeah... I'm always wary of getting players who can't get a game, supposedly because their team is stacked in their position. Mostly there are very good reasons why they can't get a game - i.e. they're not actually good enough.

Take Hately as an example. Supposedly he couldn't get a game in GWS' star studded midfield. We get a closer look at him in the pre-season games, and now most of us have come to the realisation that the reason he couldn't get games at GWS is because he's actually not that good.

There will always be a few who are genuinely held back because of star players ahead of them... but there are a lot more who simply aren't up to scratch.

 

[skam85]

We don't need to have a future #1 ruckman on our list right now. Rucks take around 3-4 years to develop, and ROB probably has 6-7 left on the clock. Right now our need is for the Lowden/Graham/Strachan type, who can come in if something happens to ROB.

If we have a young ruckman now, who thinks they should be getting regular AFL game time, then they're just going to get frustrated and look for a trade. ROB isn't going anywhere, anytime soon, so we'd just be developing a ruckman for another club. I don't see a whole lot of value in that.

We will need to look at drafting a young developing ruckman in about 2 years time, which would provide us with an AFL-ready kid around the time that ROB starts to decline. Until then, we have no need for anything other than journeymen rucks.

Like how ROB looked for a trade during the Sam Jacobs years?

 

[Danger in Texas]

We don't need to have a future #1 ruckman on our list right now. Rucks take around 3-4 years to develop, and ROB probably has 6-7 left on the clock. Right now our need is for the Lowden/Graham/Strachan type, who can come in if something happens to ROB.

If we have a young ruckman now, who thinks they should be getting regular AFL game time, then they're just going to get frustrated and look for a trade. ROB isn't going anywhere, anytime soon, so we'd just be developing a ruckman for another club. I don't see a whole lot of value in that.

We will need to look at drafting a young developing ruckman in about 2 years time, which would provide us with an AFL-ready kid around the time that ROB starts to decline. Until then, we have no need for anything other than journeymen rucks.

Does he though? That takes him to about age 32 or 33 I think. As we know with Sauce, the impact of a ruck can drop off really fast, and at any given point beyond age 29 or 30. It's best to be safe rather than sorry, IMO it's best to draft a ruck in the next two off-seasons that takes about 5 years to develop and can pretty much be a smooth transition to him from ROB

 

[Vader]

Yeah, like Melbourne did with Luke Jackson. Smart, forward thinking and will be more than ready made when Gawn retires.

Gawn was born in December 1991, and Jackson was drafted in 2019... and you're saying that he'll be cherry ripe when Gawn retires (I agree).
ROB was born in August 1995, so working to the same developmental timeline (and assuming Gawn & ROB retire at the same age), we should be looking to draft his replacement in 2023.

 

[Mutineer]

And then they went and added youth like Blaine Boekhurst and Paddy Dow. No wonder they're going nowhere fast.

Honestly Paddy Dow was an excellent prospect on what he had done at U18 level and I can assure you if Carlton didn't take him where they did he'd have been snapped up quickly by other teams. You've got the very big advantage of hindsight that recruiters don't have. I'd have had more concern with them taking Lochie O'Brien at pick 10 because other than an elite kick he was very outside and a lot had doubts about his contested game.

 

[Vader]

Does he though? That takes him to about age 32 or 33 I think. As we know with Sauce, the impact of a ruck can drop off really fast, and at any given point beyond age 29 or 30. It's best to be safe rather than sorry, IMO it's best to draft a ruck in the next two off-seasons that takes about 5 years to develop and can pretty much be a smooth transition to him from ROB

I agree that we should be looking at drafting one in 2022 or 2023. I can't be critical of them for not having a developmental ruckman on the list right now, given ROB's age.

 

[maxlilly]

You're onto something here, though. I'd argue we might need to draft a ruck to develop in the next couple of off-seasons that, once developed, can immediately step in once ROB becomes cooked. If you look at some of the current rucks around the league (not counting prodigy talents like Grundy and Nic Nat), they all take a while to break out

Goldstein - year 5
ROB - year 5
Witts - year 6
Gawn - year 6
S Martin - year 7

Even someone like Matthew Flynn is only just starting to look good for GWS this year, in his 6th year

Draft one in the rookie draft or later in the ND this year, give him time to develop and we'll have a ready-made replacement for ROB by the time the middle of the decade comes around

Yes, thats the problem with ruckman is that they take so long to develop.
But I like how Freo went out and targeted a couple of young ruckman a few years ago in Meeks and Darcy ? ( I think) and now it is paying dividends for them.
At least you give yourself a chance of getting a good ruckman instead of depth fillers as we seem to keep doing.
I think we got lucky with Sauce coming back after starting at Carlton but I don't think you can rely on that strategy

 

[Mutineer]

Gawn was born in December 1991, and Jackson was drafted in 2019... and you're saying that he'll be cherry ripe when Gawn retires (I agree).
ROB was born in August 1995, so working to the same developmental timeline (and assuming Gawn & ROB retire at the same age), we should be looking to draft his replacement in 2023.

Nope 2022....Will Verrall.

 

[Danger in Texas]

Honestly Paddy Dow was an excellent prospect on what he had done at U18 level and I can assure you if Carlton didn't take him where they did he'd have been snapped up quickly by other teams. You've got the very big advantage of hindsight that recruiters don't have. I'd have had more concern with them taking Lochie O'Brien at pick 10 because other than an elite kick he was very outside and a lot had doubts about his contested game.

Dow probably has a bit of the same problem as Jones. Can't find the ball enough right now to the point that he just seems to have lost confidence. Shame, because he seemed like a great potential burst mid in his U18 year (2017, I think)

FWIW LOB looking very much like a wasted pick at this point, as well