Adelaide Crows - Stats, Data, Trends & Observations

[Rogue77]

Sid Draper

Well rounded stat line by Sid yesterday in the SANFL:

• 5 inside 50's
• 4 rebound 50's
• 5 clearances
• 4 tackles

Suggests two things to me - versatility (ability to impact across different areas of the game), and work rate (effort to get to different parts of the ground, tackle, etc.)

Source/s

Matches - SANFL

sanfl.com.au

 

[Rogue77]

Match Day Analysis - 26 April - Brisbane, at Brisbane

Q1


What It Looked/Felt Like

• Brisbane’s pressure was good early - felt like when we got the ball we had little time or space to find a teammate or dispose of the ball effectively (or move it effectively)
• Brisbane made the most of their scoring drives and turnovers
• Adelaide got some momentum back in the second half of the quarter, which looked like it came on the back of reduced Brisbane pressure (give us a little more time and space), and also efficiency going inside 50 (particularly Rankine’s 2 goals - which were both individual brilliance)

What The Stats Say (totals for match)

• Score

ADEL - 25 (4.1)
BRIS - 29 (4.5)

• Disposals

ADEL - 84


BRIS - 80

• Disposal Efficiency

ADEL - 76.2


BRIS - 66.3%

• Inside 50’s

ADEL - 16


BRIS - 14

• Efficiency inside 50

ADEL - 42.9%


BRIS - 56.3%

• Clearances

ADEL - 12


BRIS - 14

• Turnovers

ADEL - 16


BRIS - 14

• Tackles inside 50

ADEL - 3


BRIS - 6

• Free Kicks

ADEL - 5


BRIS - 8

 

[Rogue77]

Q2


What It Looked/Felt Like

• Brisbane scored off turnover (Milera kick) - can’t blame him as he was trying to use the corridor - just a clanger kick
• Adelaide had two very effective scoring chains through Walker and Dawson’s goals - moved the ball directly and quickly up the ground - two inside 50’s for 2 goals
• The Morris goal came on the back of Brisbane being able to get time and space with the ball - nothing Butts could do in the end
• Adelaide started to get forced with their ball movement - bombing it long to Brisbane contested marks instead of looking for shorter handballs or Adelaide players in space
• Adelaide got let off a little with Reville running too far - looked like Brisbane had options going inside 50
• Adelaide had a few opportunities to push the ball up the ground, and made self imposed errors e.g. Berry lack of awareness getting caught holding it (one kick away from an inside 50). This led to the McKenna goal on the turnover
• Adelaide again started kicking the ball long to contests. Brisbane were able to easily force the contest or take the contested mark. Adelaide got let off with a Lohman miss, and then Bailey capitalised on the end of the Laird long kick to a contest. Adel down 56 to 37 at this point of the game
• The momentum really felt like it had swung in favour of Brisbane at this point. Ashcroft got easy space in the middle of the ground and hit up Rayner on the lead. Rayner goal. Brisbane up 62 to 37.
• Adel got the next 2 inside 50’s off what felt like a Brisbane lull in focus/intensity. One went for a rushed behind, and the second for a Keays long miss (after some good play by Berry and Cumming)
• Brisbane started moving the ball with short uncontested marks - got it inside 50 uncontested
• A sloppy passage of play by both teams - turnovers by both. Adelaide got inside 50 and Rankine gave away the push in the back free
• Adelaide got the ball back off the next Brisbane play. Tried to move it latreally and then out onto the wing (instead of bombing it long), but Brisbane were about to anticipate it and spoil/nullify the play
• Adelaide stopped the last Brisbane attacking play, and ran out of time pushing it the other way
• Overall, felt like Adelaide weren’t able to move the ball effectively enough this quarter and Brisbane were able to nullify it or force turnovers when we did. Brisbane were very effective when they did go the other way and got inside 50. Also felt like Adelaide weren't as effective without the individual brilliance of Rankine in the first quarter
  
  

What The Stats Say (totals for match)

• Score

ADEL - 39 (6.3)
BRIS - 62 (9.8)

• Disposals

ADEL - 180


BRIS - 185

• Disposal Efficiency

ADEL - 77.2%


BRIS - 64.9%

• Inside 50’s

ADEL - 24


BRIS - 30

• Efficiency inside 50

ADEL - 37.5%


BRIS - 60%

• Clearances

ADEL - 18


BRIS - 27

• Turnovers

ADEL - 35


BRIS - 32

• Tackles inside 50

ADEL - 4


BRIS - 7

• Free Kicks

ADEL - 11


BRIS - 13

 

[Rogue77]

Q3

What It Looked/Felt Like

• Rankine starting in the middle to start the quarter with Berry and Dawson
• Brisbane got 3 immediate inside 50 entries without almost any resistance at the contest - all within a minute. All of them were ineffective
• Adelaide kicked it long outside of 50 and it came back for another Brisbane inside 50 entry
• Adelaide tried working the near wing and couldn’t find any players in space - everything was contested and closed off
• Brisbane another inside 50 which Adel cut off and we went long and contested the other way. Adelaide scrubbed the ball out the contest with a Pedlar free, which ended in a Cook goal after entering 50 - good finishes by Dawson and Cook. Score 62 to 45
• A brilliant clearance by Rankine ended in a Toby Murray shot at goal - out on the full
• Brisbane able to advance the ball reasonably quickly the other way - ended in rushed behind (Morris had a clean grab at it though)
• Adelaide went contested up the wing again - Brisbane did a good job of cutting off options. Adelaide tried to go lateral which Brisbane forced the turnover on from a spoil - went very quickly the other way for a goal
• Brisbane very easy centre clearance from the Brisbane ruck - Morris mark inside 50 from Neale. Goal. Score 74 Bris to 45 Adel.
• Another easy Brisbane clearance. Adelaide nullified the inside 50.
• Adelaide cut off going the other way after advancing it to Brisbane’s half back
• Brisbane slowed the play down - short kicks and marks. Advanced the ball easily up the ground. Inside 50 to marking contest - Neale roved it, to Bailey who goaled. Score 80 to 45.
• Another EASY clearance out the ruck by Foot - Adel ruck got beaten multiple time with the same play this quarter. Ends in a Brisbane inside 50 - Will Ashcroft on the end of it for a goal. Score 86 Bris to 45 Adel.
• Adelaide win next possession from centre bounce. Ends up in a Maley set shot miss on goal from about 45 out directly in front.
• Brisbane very easily advance the ball up the far wing (off a good ruck contest win by Draper). Lohman should have goaled 15 metres out off a mark - no awareness and got caught behind holding the ball.
• Adelaide went the other way inside 50 and lost possession.
• Brisbane AGAIN go up the wing, Draper wins ruck contest (Adelaide has lost what feels like the last 5 or 6 ruck contests cleanly), brisbane win possession through mids, and get two inside 50’s. Both nullified or cut off.
• Adelaide go the other way but bomb it inside 50 to a contest and it comes out quickly.
• Brisbane inside 50 cut off by Worrell. Adelaide go the other way quickly and ThilThorpe missed from the boundary
• Brisbane easily go up the far wing - winning multiple contests. Draper contested mark inside 50 (on Dawson) and goals. Score 92 Bris to 47 Adel.
• Adel win possesion, but go forward and get cut off with Rachele losing the marking contest. Brisbane easily go the other way inside 50 for a Bailey goal. Bris 98 to 47 Adel. 6 goals straight for Brisbane from 14 inside 50’s at this point.
• Rankine loses the contest holding the ball. Brisbane very easily advance the ball to Mcluggage inside 50 who goals. 7 goals from 15 inside 50’s.
• Adelaide win the centre cleanrance through ruck infringement. Go inside 50 and easily spoiled and repelled by Brisbane. Far wing stoppage - Neale easily roves a McAndrew tap and evades several Adel players. Brisbane play kick to kick without resistance.
• Brisbane kicking clanger up the corridor
• Adelaide kick to kick - get it inside 50 to what have been a Toby Murray goal from a mark. Tried to get it to Cook in centre square - spoiled. Brisbane repel to Cook - misses set shot banana from boundary
• Quarter over
• Summary - demolition job of a quarter by Brisbane. Feels like game over. A heap of easy uncontested ball movement, inside 50’s and goals by Brisbane. No noticeable impact by Rankine, Rachele, Thilthorpe this quarter.

What The Stats Say (totals for match)

• Score

ADEL - 48 (7.6)
BRIS - 104 (16.8)

• Disposals

ADEL - 252


BRIS - 297

• Disposal Efficiency

ADEL - 75.8%


BRIS - 71.7%

• Inside 50’s

ADEL - 31


BRIS - 45

• Efficiency inside 50

ADEL - 45.5%


BRIS - 55.6%

• Clearances

ADEL - 23


BRIS - 38

• Turnovers

ADEL - 51


BRIS - 48

• Tackles inside 50

ADEL - 4


BRIS - 8

• Free Kicks

ADEL - 16


BRIS - 15

 

[Rogue77]

Q4

No Q4 analysis

Pretty clear what has happened in the game and what the issues have been

1. Adelaide relying on individual brilliance instead of a sustainable team game plan and game style
2. Adelaide struggles to move the ball effectively consistently offensively, and cannot stop the top teams defensively consistently going the other way
3. Brisbane is obviously the best team in the comp over the past few years for a reason. This is the standard. In particular - the top teams can be very effective with their scoring chains over a very short period of time in a given game i.e. see how easily Brisbane moved the ball and their effectiveness going inside 50 in the third quarter. Devastating.

*In particular in this game - worth pointing out how cleanly and consistently Foot and Draper won the ruck contest in that third quarter.

 

[Rogue77]

Interesting Stat:

Score Involvements

BRIS

• W Ashcroft - 13
• Bailey - 12
• Neale - 11
• L Ashcroft - 11
• Cameron - 10

ADEL

• Dawson - 7
• Cook - 7
• Pedlar - 6
• Laird - 6

 

[Rogue77]

Grand Final Team Profiles

How many key forwards/tall forwards the last 5 grand final teams have had in their starting lineup:

2025
Brisbane - Morris and Gallop
Geelong - Cameron and Neale

2024
Brisbane - Daniher and Hipwood (w/ Morris on the bench)
Sydney - Amartey and McDonald

2023
Pies - Mihocek (rest are small and medium forwards - De Goey, Elliot, Hill etc.)
Lions - Daniher and Hipwood

2022
Geelong - Hawkins and Cameron
Sydney - Franklin and Reid

2021
Demons - Brown and Mcdonald (Fritsch classified as medium forward at 188cms and on the thinner side)
Dogs - Naughton, English, Schache (Hannan also 190cms though)

Add to the above Richmond's infamously small forward line around Riewoldt before Lynch got there
Even when Lynch was there, it was mainly a 2 KPF starting lineup of Riewoldt and Lynch

2018 WCE won it with Darling and Kennedy

Have to go back to probably the Hawthorn sides for an example of a side that played somewhat taller and were successful e.g. Roughead, McEvoy/Schoenmakers, Gunston

Brings up the question - once Tex is done, is the optimal starting fwd line setup just TT and one other KPF e.g. Fog? (I think it's accurate to classify Fog a primarily lead up KPF and not a medium forward). If you want to use the Hawthorn model (but we are going back to 2015), can maybe get away with both of them plus a resting McAndrew/T Murray as your 'McEvoy'

The most recent data suggests that your team profile should have no more than 2 starting KPFs

Interestingly, probably the tallest forward line of the lot in the last 5 years lost the GF (Dogs in 2021)

There is obviously an argument to be made about the strength of your midfield and the number of A graders you have exclusive of how many starting KPFs you play, but, the recent team profile data is still pretty conclusive

 

[119others]

Grand Final Team Profiles

How many key forwards/tall forwards the last 5 grand final teams have had in their starting lineup:

2025
Brisbane - Morris and Gallop
Geelong - Cameron and Neale

2024
Brisbane - Daniher and Hipwood (w/ Morris on the bench)
Sydney - Amartey and McDonald

2023
Pies - Mihocek (rest are small and medium forwards - De Goey, Elliot, Hill etc.)
Lions - Daniher and Hipwood

2022
Geelong - Hawkins and Cameron
Sydney - Franklin and Reid

2021
Demons - Brown and Mcdonald (Fritsch classified as medium forward at 188cms and on the thinner side)
Dogs - Naughton, English, Schache (Hannan also 190cms though)ca

Add to the above Richmond's infamously small forward line around Riewoldt before Lynch got there
Even when Lynch was there, it was mainly a 2 KPF starting lineup of Riewoldt and Lynch

2018 WCE won it with Darling and Kennedy

Have to go back to probably the Hawthorn sides for an example of a side that played somewhat taller and were successful e.g. Roughead, McEvoy/Schoenmakers, Gunston

Brings up the question - once Tex is done, is the optimal starting fwd line setup just TT and one other KPF e.g. Fog? (I think it's accurate to classify Fog a primarily lead up KPF and not a medium forward). If you want to use the Hawthorn model (but we are going back to 2015), can maybe get away with both of them plus a resting McAndrew/T Murray as your 'McEvoy'

The most recent data suggests that your team profile should have no more than 2 starting KPFs

Interestingly, probably the tallest forward line of the lot in the last 5 years lost the GF (Dogs in 2021)

There is obviously an argument to be made about the strength of your midfield and the number of A graders you have exclusive of how many starting KPFs you play, but, the recent team profile data is still pretty conclusive

appreciate the analysis. some of the above teams though did have spare ruckman and/or KPF on the bench. is there a reason about looking at starting players? as in you assumed if only 2 talls are named on field they keep the same structure for much of the day? and its sort of what the make up of your other forwards are eg danger is beast like as a leading forward and despite not being labelled a 'tall' as such effectively plays as one with excellent leading AND overhead marking which none of our smalls have currently

i think ultimately, assuming he stays in form, toby murray brings a different dimenson and can play back up ruckman. perhaps tex doesnt come back from here....and we run with the fog, tt and t murray as needed in the forward line. ah chee also is a good leading target. nice problem to have and happened faster than what most were likely expecting with murrays rapid improvement at this level.



just the last few gfs i am aware of:

2025 lions - had spare ruckman on the bench
2025 cats - danger as above

2024 you identified lions had 3 inc morris on the bench but so did swans (mc lean). so both teams had 3 KPFs in their full team that year

2023 - a good example of your point. pies have traditionally had poor tall forwards and likely smallest of all - mc stay went out injured earlier in finals. lions rely heavily on small and mids but ah chee and mc carthy both play tall for their size. i suppose our smalls arent really comparable - anb, rash, rankine, keays, peds....not too many of these guys clunking marks but ah chee in will help as a leading target

 

[Rogue77]

appreciate the analysis. some of the above teams though did have spare ruckman and/or KPF on the bench. is there a reason about looking at starting players? as in you assumed if only 2 talls are named on field they keep the same structure for much of the day? and its sort of what the make up of your other forwards are eg danger is beast like as a leading forward and despite not being labelled a 'tall' as such effectively plays as one with excellent leading AND overhead marking which none of our smalls have currently

i think ultimately, assuming he stays in form, toby murray brings a different dimenson and can play back up ruckman. perhaps tex doesnt come back from here....and we run with the fog, tt and t murray as needed in the forward line. ah chee also is a good leading target. nice problem to have and happened faster than what most were likely expecting with murrays rapid improvement at this level.



just the last few gfs i am aware of:

2025 lions - had spare ruckman on the bench
2025 cats - danger as above

2024 you identified lions had 3 inc morris on the bench but so did swans (mc lean). so both teams had 3 KPFs in their full team that year

2023 - a good example of your point. pies have traditionally had poor tall forwards and likely smallest of all - mc stay went out injured earlier in finals. lions rely heavily on small and mids but ah chee and mc carthy both play tall for their size. i suppose our smalls arent really comparable - anb, rash, rankine, keays, peds....not too many of these guys clunking marks but ah chee in will help as a leading target

We are playing 3 key forwards who demand a lot of the ball and kick a lot of goals

2025 for example - TT 60, Fog 41, Walker 39

That's great because you obviously get the production, but you also become more predictable, regimented and have less dimensions (as well as less spread in your production among your players) as a result because we know where the output/scoring is going to come from most times.

Compare that to a Brisbane in 2025 - Morris 53 goals, then Hipwood down at 25. 2024 - Daniher 58, then Hipwood down at 33.

A potential inefficiency with the Crows setup too is that Walker and Fogarty can't play anywhere else but the forward line. That gives you less flexibility/versatility compared to a TT who can play both key forward and ruck. With how effective/productive a healthy TT is as a forward too (both in terms of goals and score involvements), you don't want to be dragging him away from there too often just because your other players can't play other spots on the ground.

Compare that to a Brisbane again - both Hipwood and Daniher pinch hitted in the ruck - they didn't solely play forward line. You could swap them out with a resting primary ruck to the fwd line, or, move your primary ruck to the bench and bring in a small/medium to your fwd line. Gives you more options/dimensions and versatility with your lineups.
Same thing with your Danger example - Danger can pinch hit in the midfield, and he gives you much more speed and dynamism in other areas of play than a Walker or Fog gives you.

To give an example of a model of a lineup that I think could work and optimise better what we are doing:

• TT and Fog as your 2 starting KPFs
• McAndrew starting ruck
• One ruck/fwd on the bench e.g. T Murray (and depending on the matchups and day - can play 3 talls if you need to)

That gives you a good amount of versatility/options without losing much or any production (any production lost from that third KPF spot that a Walker plays would be swallowed up by other players as we saw on the weekend against North).
All three of McAndrew, TT, and Murray can play or pinch hit ruck or forward
Fog would be a permanent forward without versatility, but it doesn't matter as much as you're only carrying one of him instead of two

Worth keeping in mind too - we have taller guys like Dawson and Curtin that can play/rotate forward (as well as play other spots on the ground). Marsh looks like he can be a multi position player too if he goes well with his development e.g. forward and wing
Ludo developing in the 2's as well, and looks like he will primarily be a key forward at this point
We've got good tall cover and also goal kicking cover for form drops or injuries at this point

 

[Golumless]

Grand Final Team Profiles

How many key forwards/tall forwards the last 5 grand final teams have had in their starting lineup:

2025
Brisbane - Morris and Gallop
Geelong - Cameron and Neale

2024
Brisbane - Daniher and Hipwood (w/ Morris on the bench)
Sydney - Amartey and McDonald

2023
Pies - Mihocek (rest are small and medium forwards - De Goey, Elliot, Hill etc.)
Lions - Daniher and Hipwood

2022
Geelong - Hawkins and Cameron
Sydney - Franklin and Reid

2021
Demons - Brown and Mcdonald (Fritsch classified as medium forward at 188cms and on the thinner side)
Dogs - Naughton, English, Schache (Hannan also 190cms though)

Add to the above Richmond's infamously small forward line around Riewoldt before Lynch got there
Even when Lynch was there, it was mainly a 2 KPF starting lineup of Riewoldt and Lynch

2018 WCE won it with Darling and Kennedy

Have to go back to probably the Hawthorn sides for an example of a side that played somewhat taller and were successful e.g. Roughead, McEvoy/Schoenmakers, Gunston

Brings up the question - once Tex is done, is the optimal starting fwd line setup just TT and one other KPF e.g. Fog? (I think it's accurate to classify Fog a primarily lead up KPF and not a medium forward). If you want to use the Hawthorn model (but we are going back to 2015), can maybe get away with both of them plus a resting McAndrew/T Murray as your 'McEvoy'

The most recent data suggests that your team profile should have no more than 2 starting KPFs

Interestingly, probably the tallest forward line of the lot in the last 5 years lost the GF (Dogs in 2021)

There is obviously an argument to be made about the strength of your midfield and the number of A graders you have exclusive of how many starting KPFs you play, but, the recent team profile data is still pretty conclusive

I do think a lot of the talk about the number of key forwards is a tad bit overblown, but there is a pretty worthwhile point in the trend which is it's bloody hard to get your list to the point where there are three good key forwards (and potentially not worth it if you don't accidentally fall into it, i.e. F/S, late pick booming into a solid footballer etc). It's also comparatively easy to find smalls, these are the kids you're developing or the guys who couldn't hack it as inside midfielders.

For me, I don't think I've seen anything in the last 10 weeks that's dissuaded me from the model of Thilthorpe - Fogarty - ruck/KPF (Toby Murray at this point).

 

[Rogue77]

I do think a lot of the talk about the number of key forwards is a tad bit overblown, but there is a pretty worthwhile point in the trend which is it's bloody hard to get your list to the point where there are three good key forwards (and potentially not worth it if you don't accidentally fall into it, i.e. F/S, late pick booming into a solid footballer etc). It's also comparatively easy to find smalls, these are the kids you're developing or the guys who couldn't hack it as inside midfielders.

For me, I don't think I've seen anything in the last 10 weeks that's dissuaded me from the model of Thilthorpe - Fogarty - ruck/KPF (Toby Murray at this point).

Yeah

Relates to draft strategy as well in terms of the players that are higher probability or more available to draft, and also develop

Also involves opportunity cost in terms of what you're giving up to play that extra dedicated KPF - potentially general play speed and pressure, versatility if they can't play a second position (like a ruck/fwd, or a fwd/mid), potentially less effective in wet weather games, etc.

Also have to consider that finals football is generally a different brand of football to regular season football. Tends to be very contested, and generally you're not going to get as much clean marking supply to your forwards (because of how much heat/pressure there tends to be on the ball).
If you go back over the recent GFs, it tends not to be talls that lead the goal scoring
Small forwards and mid/fwds tend to lead goal scoring likely because they can generally create both in the air and on the ground - Cameron, McCluggage, Lohman, Ah Chee, Hill, Stengle, etc.

These things might seem small to some, but the small edges can make a difference

Overall, 3 dedicated key forwards with 2 that have no positional versatility isn't an optimal team profile for a finals team in my opinion

I like the model you've suggested