Adelaide Going DOWN!

[Pie eyed]

A wet AAMI on a Saturday night......anyone can win.

Pies by a goal or less in a thriller, dare I say "right in front of me"?
J.Blair BOG.

I just hope we do not suffer any new injuries, as it's going to be a physical contest.

 

[Bay Pie]

I am starting to get that 2002 QF v Port type feeling.

Albeit when I 1st saw the thread title, I thought this was a family type board, not somewhere to hear about skin flicks.

 

[eddiebankbalance]

A wet AAMI on a Saturday night......anyone can win.

Pies by a goal or less in a thriller, dare I say "right in front of me"?
J.Blair BOG.

I'll take that

 

[jonbe54]

A wet AAMI on a Saturday night......anyone can win.

Pies by a goal or less in a thriller, dare I say "right in front of me"?
J.Blair BOG.

I just hope we do not suffer any new injuries, as it's going to be a physical contest.

This is the biggest worry for me as well, although the softer conditions will cushion hard landings and reduce ground impact strains the slippery conditions and the hard physical game of the Crows will be hard to negotiate without an injury.

 

[mattys123]

A wet, greasy night in Adelaide favours us for sure, as if it was dry I really couldn't see us keeping up with the Crows for the first three quarters.

But this is what experts (and the pessimists on here) don't get, it was never going to be dry at night in May in Adelaide.

Even if the day was sunny and dry, at night, the West Lakes area always leads to a dewy ground, and add the rain that Adelaide has had over the past few days, and the chance of more and this is about as much of a wet weather game as we get in the AFL (outside of a downpour like the Cats/Lions game a few weeks back).

And I'd like to see how Tippett goes in the wet? We know Cloke has little problem playing in any conditions, while some of our smaller players were born to play in wet conditions.

If we lose, we won't lose by much, because on a tough night for football, players will get tired quicker, and we will over run them late, even if they have a big lead on us, due to the extra 2 days break.

I believe, and so should you.

 

[ipswichpies]

Sure. I wasn't meaning to talk Wellers' form up too much but he's certainly on track and looking far more dangerous than Daisy.

Anyway, the thing that I didn't say but which will influence the result as much as anything even if we win the midfield battle is the forward press. If we do as poor a job of keeping the ball in as we have been doing until now then even midfield dominance won't help.

Funny you should mention the press and our forward because if nothing else our forward pressure should be better this week with both Elliott and Sinclair in there,both these boys are pretty good defensively and Elliott judging by reports from the VFL is also quite handy around goals.

 

[Cory]

I'm actually confident we can match with it with them even though Reid and Swan are out.

Doesn't matter that it's at AAMI we have beating them heaps of times there but what needs to go right is one O'Brien needs to have a good game so he can cover the loss of Reid,and I have no doubt Sidebottom,Beams and Pendles can cover the loss of swan

 

[Wooljay]

With a much smaller backline than usual I think the wet will suit us, but losing Swan is still a really huge loss. Pendles has overtaken him for impact in games, but he is such a clutch player with phenomenal strength and goal sense. Would love him in a greasy game like Saturday is going to be.

 

[Primetime Pricey]

I am so looking fwd to going to the game. Going to be a lot of fun

 

[HFF]

This game has a lot of 2009 Elimination Final about it. That night, we went into the game without our premium midfielder in Pendlebury and Rocca was down and out too.

This time round, we do it without Swan and Reid and whilst the injury list is longer than that night with a few key players out, we still overcame the odds to win.

Our interstate record and our record at AAMI gives me confidence to get the job done.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

pies by 3 points

 

[yeee_haaaa!!!!!]

we're going to win this game easily boys. yeah we've got a few injuries - but im pretty sure the midfield will still contain pendles thomas beams sidebottom wellingham shaw at its core and the likes of didak and blair getting a run through there as well. the crows only genuine advantage was going to be their key forwards due to our injured defenders, but walker is suspended and the rain has arrived so tippett will be nullified. not to say our revelation of the season in keefe wouldn't get the better of him in any event. i am so confident it is not funny

this is the week that the rest of the footy world starts to realise just exactly who is still the best team in the comp and the team to beat for the flag. even comp my ass - with everything that has gone wrong so far in 2012 we are 6-2. wait till things start to go right in the 2nd haf of the year. the rest will be playing for 2nd

 

[SnakePlisskin]

Massive show if our two key fwds can have good games

 

[hellfire]

I'd be a lot more confident if we had Swan playing. All of our injuries hurt, but Swan is a match winner, he can [and does] single handedly drag us over the line and we'll sorely miss his influence.

That said, I think it will be tight given the weather. But I still think the Crows will get up. :

 

[buzzbuzz]

... the rain has arrived so tippett will be nullified.

Don't make definitive pronouncements like that. With our luck Tippett will come out and kick 5.

 

[SuperSub17]

This game has a lot of 2009 Elimination Final about it. That night, we went into the game without our premium midfielder in Pendlebury and Rocca was down and out too.

iirc Adelaide had won their last two games by 10 goals+, one of them being a smashing of Carlton at Etihad when the scum were favoured to win

 

[Helfarch]

ENOUGH of the injuries excuse

ENOUGH of the match up disputes

COLLINGWOOD is going over to Adelaide to TRY AND WIN a game of football. Now, I'm not sure bout the rest of you - but I'm damn optimistic about winning this game.

NOW let's get on with it....

GO PIES!!!!

There is no try.

 

[davywap]

I realise I should be very confident for this game given our injuries but I actually feel fairly confident for some reason and I generally have a pretty good radar for predicting our games. I pretty much knew we'd lose to Hawthorn and Carlton and had a good feeling for the Anzac Day and Geelong games. Now I have a fairly good feeling for this one, this would at least mean we'll make a good showing and at the worst go down by not much.

To win I think it's a matter of winning the midfield. We've still got the best midfielder in the comp in Pendles (OK maybe second after Ablett) playing and he is integral to our success. So is Swan and missing him will be more damaging than missing Reid for mine. But we have Sidebottom and Beams who are on fire, Wellingham in good touch and Blair is honest and can sneak forward and kick a couple.

The midfield X-Factor is definitely with Daisy and also I think with Didak. If Daisy shows up then he accounts for Swan, less disposals but they'll be more effective. Same goes for Didak if he can spend at least 50% of the game on the ball and show his true class then we win the biggest battle.

Look at the midfield battle here, rated on their potential:

Pendles - gun v Dangerfield - gun
Daisy - gun v Thompson - gun
Sidebottom - gun v Vince - gun
Beams - gun v Sloane - gun
Didak - gun v Van Berlo - above average
Wellingham - above average v Mackay - honest
Blair - honest v Douglas - honest

Now this comparison may have some bias toward it, more perhaps given the fact that I've seen a lot more of our mids than theirs, and I said this is based on potential not current form so everything would need to fall into place for our guys to live up to these ratings. If (and that's a fair if) that does happen and our structures are right, I think we can beat them in the middle and that should be enough to get over the line.

Main concerns I have elsewhere:

Ruck: Jolly not in the best form, doing well against younger rucks, however Jacobs definitely is in top-notch going in so based on that we could lose out here big-time, but hopefully if that happens we can work with it.

Defence: Pretty tough ask on Keeffe to be the only true tall back, but we really don't have much choice. Harry made a name for himself initially playing on both talls and smalls, but is way down on form obviously and is probably too short for their tall forwards anyway. Maxy is a great 3rd man and I much prefer that to him playing a match-up, but again they may have no choice. Perhaps Jols is used to fill the hole all night, maybe even Cloke goes down there as he did early in his career - but I doubt that very much and it would leave too big a hole in our own forward line. I haven't seen much of this Josh Jenkins but it doesn't look like he'll trouble us too much. Hopefully Keeffe can be serviceable on Tippett and if the midfield wins its battle, the rest should hopefully take care of itself.

Like I said, everything has to go right for us to win but I have a reasonably good feeling about this one, playing at Feral Park doesn't seem to bother us and nor does being the underdog.

 

[Wooljay]

Blown away by the amount of people who think we're going to comfortably account for probably the most inform club in the competition. We haven't really smashed any sides of value out of the park, and Adelaide have done that both to Geelong and Carlton. Just don't see where this confidence is coming from.

 

[Swooper18]

This game has a lot of 2009 Elimination Final about it. That night, we went into the game without our premium midfielder in Pendlebury and Rocca was down and out too.

This time round, we do it without Swan and Reid and whilst the injury list is longer than that night with a few key players out, we still overcame the odds to win.

Our interstate record and our record at AAMI gives me confidence to get the job done.

Our encounter against the Crows was a semi-final during that finals series.

 

[Ant85]

We'll lose by 40 points.

Backline depleted, our best player out, it'd be a mighty effort to overcome the inform team that spanked Geelong and Carlton in the past fortnight.

 

[Macca_]

For us to win, we need Cloke to be at his best tomorrow night

 

[Cory]

And O'Brien needs to lift

 

[eddiebankbalance]

..with 2 "easy" games following this game, I have NO DOUBT that BUX will be pumped and get the boys fired up!

 

[lenny20]

If we're to be a chance in this one we're going to need something from our young guys and debutants. We're a 100% better team when we bat right the way through the 22, unlike when we carry a few (see Hawthorn and Carlton games).

So, best of luck to Marley and Jamie, if they play well we're a chance for what would be a famous win.