Preview Round 8: Adelaide vs Essendon, Adelaide Oval, Sunday 26/07/2020, 1:05 PM AEST

[ghostdog]

You say better, but better doesn't mean good. He's still sh*t in this regard. So what we have is one bloke who is sh*t around the ground but is a very good tap ruckman, and another bloke who is less sh*t around the ground but still sh*t and isn't a good tap ruckman.

Like. We have two ruckman who are sh*t around the ground. I'd prefer the one who's actually good at something rather the one who isn't good at anything.

Yeah, no. One of those is better at repeat contests and has better stamina. There's just no stat for that. Frankly, as a viewer, it makes me feel better that our ruckman looks like he cares enough to go when it's his turn, so maybe there's self-interest for me, but Bellchambers is old and slow. Sorry.

 

[ghostdog]

Our team sheet for this game looks like we're taking the piss. I can't believe we haven't brought in or moved a tall to the forwardline. Zerk in and Francis forward would have solved two issues. It seriously looks like a NAB Cup team sheet. The Crows might get up simply on their confidence looking at our forwardline.

 

[eth-dog]

They aren’t even around the ground. Phillips chases, tackles and influences contests more than TBC. He is taking some contested marks. It’s a bit weird to be so insistent that it’s otherwise. TBCs best tap work certainly wasn’t apparent in the matches we saw this year.

Bellchambers: s**t around the ground, good tap ruck.
Phillips: Less s**t around the ground, s**t tap ruck.

He's averaging 8.3 touches, 3.3 tackles and 2.7 marks. Let's call him what he is, s**t. I'm not thrilled that Bellchambers is playing. I've repeatedly said that he's cooked. But as far as his best tap work, his tap work in round 1 was good (though a long time ago I freely acknowledge), round 2 was okay (27 hitouts, 7 to adv), round 4 was poor.

Yeah Eth TB hasn't be a very good tap ruckman this year.

He's had one good, one okay and one poor game across the three weeks in terms of tap work.

Phillips is just better than TBC.

TBC will be remembered as the better ruckman over the journey, justifiably.

But right now TBC is plain old crap.

Both are crap right now. Phillips has had one solid game and people are acting as if he's being unjustifyably dropped when the past two weeks he's been completely and utterly spanked. If Bellchambers had the game Phillips did last week everyone would be screaming from the rooftops.

Phillips was thumped in the hitouts by Grundy - no shame in that - and yes, that was absolutely mitigated by his second efforts and mobility. Bellchambers would have been a stump that night.
Goldstein beat Phillips in the hitouts, 30 - 28, so I would say that's negligible. When you add McKernan to that, we actually won the hitouts against North.
English beat Phillips comprehensively, and Phillips' efforts around the ground were putrid. So was the rest of the team's. Phillips also isn't seasoned enough to play with the effort he had been, week in week out - he'd just played Grundy and Goldstein, hence needing now to be managed, I think.
I don't have any qualms with that. I'm just saying that a fresh Phillips is my preferred option. He contests the ball. There will be more of those than there will hitouts, and he'll win some of those as well.

I don't give a damn about the actual hit outs. Hit outs by themselves are a meaningless stat. Hitouts to advantage though, he's been beaten every week. And as I pointed out earlier, his opponents are averaging over 20 disposals a game.

Yeah, no. One of those is better at repeat contests and has better stamina. There's just no stat for that. Frankly, as a viewer, it makes me feel better that our ruckman looks like he cares enough to go when it's his turn, so maybe there's self-interest for me, but Bellchambers is old and slow. Sorry.

Both are s**t around the ground and at "repeat contests". One is better, but still s**t. The other can still spoonfeed our midfielders.

The argument for Phillips is that he's less s**t at one part of the game. But there's the crux of the thing, he's still s**t at it. 27 rucks are averaging double figure hit outs. 15 of those are averaging 10 or more disposals.

How many times do I need to say that I think Bellchambers is cooked for that to get through to everyone? Do I need to say it in every post on this board from here on in? In my ideal world right now we'd have Draper playing, but he's still not ready. But for the love of god can we call Phillips for the spud that he is and always has been? Or does the Collingwood game mean that he gets a free pass from here on in even though he's been horrible for the last fortnight?

 

[Gumby2Hurley]

just don't lose pls

 

[boncer34]

How many times do I need to say that I think Bellchambers is cooked for that to get through to everyone?

Nobody's arguing that point with you. Your argument that Bellchambers is the better option is the one that makes no sense.

Belly averages 6.7 hit outs to advantage this season. Phillips averages 5.

So the argument is being made that extra 1.7 makes up for losing 2.3 disposals, 2 marks, 1.6 tackles, 1 inside 50, 2 clearances and 68 metres gained?

Yeah, nah. Phillips has been pantsed but he's still been better than Bellchambers while doing so.

 

[ghostdog]

Bellchambers: sh*t around the ground, good tap ruck.
Phillips: Less sh*t around the ground, sh*t tap ruck.

He's averaging 8.3 touches, 3.3 tackles and 2.7 marks. Let's call him what he is, sh*t. I'm not thrilled that Bellchambers is playing. I've repeatedly said that he's cooked. But as far as his best tap work, his tap work in round 1 was good (though a long time ago I freely acknowledge), round 2 was okay (27 hitouts, 7 to adv), round 4 was poor.

He's had one good, one okay and one poor game across the three weeks in terms of tap work.

Both are crap right now. Phillips has had one solid game and people are acting as if he's being unjustifyably dropped when the past two weeks he's been completely and utterly spanked. If Bellchambers had the game Phillips did last week everyone would be screaming from the rooftops.

I don't give a damn about the actual hit outs. Hit outs by themselves are a meaningless stat. Hitouts to advantage though, he's been beaten every week. And as I pointed out earlier, his opponents are averaging over 20 disposals a game.

Both are sh*t around the ground and at "repeat contests". One is better, but still sh*t. The other can still spoonfeed our midfielders.

The argument for Phillips is that he's less sh*t at one part of the game. But there's the crux of the thing, he's still sh*t at it. 27 rucks are averaging double figure hit outs. 15 of those are averaging 10 or more disposals.

How many times do I need to say that I think Bellchambers is cooked for that to get through to everyone? Do I need to say it in every post on this board from here on in? In my ideal world right now we'd have Draper playing, but he's still not ready. But for the love of god can we call Phillips for the spud that he is and always has been? Or does the Collingwood game mean that he gets a free pass from here on in even though he's been horrible for the last fortnight?

No need to melt. I prefer Phillips. Bellchambers is done.

 

[Kakkle]

Bellchambers: sh*t around the ground, good tap ruck.
Phillips: Less sh*t around the ground, sh*t tap ruck.

He's averaging 8.3 touches, 3.3 tackles and 2.7 marks. Let's call him what he is, sh*t. I'm not thrilled that Bellchambers is playing. I've repeatedly said that he's cooked. But as far as his best tap work, his tap work in round 1 was good (though a long time ago I freely acknowledge), round 2 was okay (27 hitouts, 7 to adv), round 4 was poor.

He's had one good, one okay and one poor game across the three weeks in terms of tap work.

Both are crap right now. Phillips has had one solid game and people are acting as if he's being unjustifyably dropped when the past two weeks he's been completely and utterly spanked. If Bellchambers had the game Phillips did last week everyone would be screaming from the rooftops.

I don't give a damn about the actual hit outs. Hit outs by themselves are a meaningless stat. Hitouts to advantage though, he's been beaten every week. And as I pointed out earlier, his opponents are averaging over 20 disposals a game.

Both are sh*t around the ground and at "repeat contests". One is better, but still sh*t. The other can still spoonfeed our midfielders.

The argument for Phillips is that he's less sh*t at one part of the game. But there's the crux of the thing, he's still sh*t at it. 27 rucks are averaging double figure hit outs. 15 of those are averaging 10 or more disposals.

How many times do I need to say that I think Bellchambers is cooked for that to get through to everyone? Do I need to say it in every post on this board from here on in? In my ideal world right now we'd have Draper playing, but he's still not ready. But for the love of god can we call Phillips for the spud that he is and always has been? Or does the Collingwood game mean that he gets a free pass from here on in even though he's been horrible for the last fortnight?

 

[eth-dog]

Nobody's arguing that point with you. Your argument that Bellchambers is the better option is the one that makes no sense.

Neither are ideal. But I'd take Bellchambers still because he is a better tap ruck. If he had a similar game against English there'd be fire and pitchforks.

 

[boncer34]

Neither are ideal. But I'd take Bellchambers still because he is a better tap ruck. If he had a similar game against English there'd be fire and pitchforks.

Better? Someone put it perfectly earlier

You say better, but better doesn't mean good.

Bellchambers has averaged 1.7 more hit outs to advantage against inferior opposition. That's not evidence of his superiority.

 

[eth-dog]

Better? Someone put it perfectly earlier

Eh. I'd at least give him another chance, because the reality is the data is skewed with so few games. He only had 2 hitouts to advantage against Carlton which really skewed the averages. Round 1 he had 11, round 2 he had 7. His previous 3 years he was averaging 10.9 HOA and a 35.7% hitouts to advantage rate (which was the best of the first rucks in the AFL).

 

[Duckworth]

Eh. I'd at least give him another chance, because the reality is the data is skewed with so few games. He only had 2 hitouts to advantage against Carlton which really skewed the averages. Round 1 he had 11, round 2 he had 7. His previous 3 years he was averaging 10.9 HOA and a 35.7% hitouts to advantage rate (which was the best of the first rucks in the AFL).

Bellchambers from 3 years ago is not a relevant point for a game today. All it shows is that he is projecting downwards, with a cliff approaching.

 

[eth-dog]

Bellchambers from 3 years ago is not a relevant point for a game today. All it shows is that he is projecting downwards, with a cliff approaching.

Then how about last year, where he averaged 9.4 hitouts to advantage and a rate of 36.9%? His first two games this year he had 18 HOA at a rate of 32.1%. That's the problem with the data off so few games, one game shifts things completely. Reilly O'Brien is great around the ground and neither Phillips nor Bellchambers will do anything to stop that but he isn't a great "tap" ruckman so I'm guessing we're trying to take advantage of that.

 

[BrunoV]

Re the ruckmen, it would be nice to give Phillips a crack at another grunt.

He broke even with Grundy or at least mitigated his influence in a monstrous effort.

Goldy beat him and is basically back at Grundy's level.

English belted him and he's currently a prototype of a cross of every strength of Grundy and Gawn.

What would 2020 Bellchambers, who looked slow as s**t in the scratch matches, have done against these opponents?

What did he do against Pittonet, a 10 game 5th year player who is touch and go to have a career?

How'd he go against the very average Callum Sinclair?

Lobb beatthe piss out of him basically bringing Freo back into a game it had no real business being in.

That's the form and it supports Phillips by such a long way it's not funny. Anything that happened last year is irrelevant.

 

[eth-dog]

English belted him and he's currently a prototype of a cross of every strength of Grundy and Gawn.

Um, ignoring the other stuff, this is straight up bullshit. English is currently the worst tap ruckman in the game at this point in time and Gawn is up there with the best ever. He is a gem around the ground but in no way, shape or form is he a "prototype across every strength of Gawn and Grundy". To be that he'd have sublime tap work, elite clearance skills and one of the best contested marks in the game. His tapwork is well below average, the guy is averaging 15.4 hitouts and 4.6 to advantage this season, and whilst his clearance work is solid, he's still only getting a tick over 2 clearances a game which is well below the top tier rucks this season. His 15 contested marks in 8 games is elite, but currently that's the only part of his game anywhere near Gawn or Grundy.

 

[DapperJong]

No one cares about taps

 

[Dave]

So we've won 3 of the last 4 against the bottom side with the loss having an asterisk.

What's with this asterisk crap? We lost fair and square.

 

[eth-dog]

What's with this asterisk crap? We lost fair and square.

Rampe shaking the post should have been a 50 metre penalty or a free in the goalsquare.

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

Phillips has been rubbish around the ground last two games...inferior version of Matthew Allen.

 

[Dave]

Rampe shaking the post should have been a 50 metre penalty or a free in the goalsquare.

I'm sure there were other umpiring mistakes in that game. Do we go back and fix all of them too, or just the one that didn't go our way? End of the day we lost.

 

[Liberator]

I'm sure there were other umpiring mistakes in that game. Do we go back and fix all of them too, or just the one that didn't go our way? End of the day we lost.

Yes we go back and fix all of them. Immediately. And by 'we' I mean you. Let us know when you are done.

 

[eth-dog]

I'm sure there were other umpiring mistakes in that game. Do we go back and fix all of them too, or just the one that didn't go our way? End of the day we lost.

They won the majority of the dubious calls. That one sticks out because the umpire was on the spot.

 

[JayJ20]

The Pies game was his first in 8 weeks and we rushed him back because we were rightly scared of Zac Clarke playing in the final.

We always have an excuse for TBC's performance, which is the classic Essendon mindset. He was apparently underdone in round one. Was "managed" after Pittonet smashed him. If we have to make so many excuses for him, it just means he's cooked.

I'm not against bringing him in the side and I hope he does well, but I'm going to be realistic. Phillips is way better around the ground because he can move. Let's hope this hitouts to advantage thing actually works.

 

[JayJ20]

His opponents over the past 2 years have averaged 19.75 disposals, 4.88 marks. Phillips has averaged 10.25 and 3.25 respectively. He's no good around the ground yet people are up in arms because he's perceived to put in more effort.

Okay, worded that poorly. Both are varying degrees of sh*t in this regard. One actually hits the ball to advantage though.

I said Phillips is better around the ground than TBC. I don't ever recall saying that Phillips is better around the ground than Grundy, Goldstein and English, 3 of the best ruckmans in the league this season.

 

[Shanghaistu]

I said Phillips is better around the ground than TBC. I don't ever recall saying that Phillips is better around the ground than Grundy, Goldstein and English, 3 of the best ruckmans in the league this season.

Now I can breathe a sigh of relief - only Gawn, Naitanui, Nankervis, Blicavs and Witts left to go...

 

[eth-dog]

Now I can breathe a sigh of relief - only Gawn, Naitanui, Nankervis, Blicavs and Witts left to go...

Gawn will spank whomever we play in the ruck, Nic Nat's main threat is at the stoppage, Nankervis might still be injured when we play Richmond, Blicavs plays full back and Witts, well, see Gawn.