Analysis Adelaide's true ranking each round

[adelaidecrows]

The table corrected itself a bit after last week. I feel with the larger sample size the teams are more accurately reflected. Some teams are still living off points gained from very easy wins but I suspect as we get more of a sample size, the table will get more accurate.

Big write up above this post on how the table works.

 

[betterthanu]

Shouldnt you retroactively award bonus points for the 1st 3 rounds based on the round 3 standings? No reason why a team like Geelong shouldnt get one for beating Hawks just because they happened to play them in round 1.

 

[adelaidecrows]

Shouldnt you retroactively award bonus points for the 1st 3 rounds based on the round 3 standings? No reason why a team like Geelong shouldnt get one for beating Hawks just because they happened to play them in round 1.

The idea is there but I dont think its fair as I think its easier to win in round 1 then it is in round 3 or 4 once teams start playing good footy. I am thinking the table looks pretty accurate. It would be like rewarding teams who beat freo in the first few rounds with bonus points just because freo get on a roll and win their way into positive territory half way through the season. Maybe others have a different view? let me know.

 

[adelaidecrows]

This experiment of mine is starting to really take shape and I believe now the sample size is getting bigger that we are seeing a true reflection of form. What is really stunning is just how well Adelaide is holding its position especially since we have lost two matches and played some hard teams. We should all take some confidence away from that. If we just held down defence a bit better we would be ranking as high as Sydney.

 

[CrowsB4hoes]

I think the Hawks look too low. They've been winning close ones, but triumphed against U.S. and Dogs who are both above them on your table.

Plus North unbeaten but 8th?

 

[Paladin]

View attachment 239817

This experiment of mine is starting to really take shape and I believe now the sample size is getting bigger that we are seeing a true reflection of form. What is really stunning is just how well Adelaide is holding its position especially since we have lost two matches and played some hard teams. We should all take some confidence away from that. If we just held down defence a bit better we would be ranking as high as Sydney.

Interesting looks a lot better.

 

[adelaidecrows]

I think the Hawks look too low. They've been winning close ones, but triumphed against U.S. and Dogs who are both above them on your table.

Plus North unbeaten but 8th?

Hawks if they are good will lift further up the ladder. North unbeaten but the table suggests they cant be trusted. We know the crows should have won both games they lost. The dogs are also beatable.

 

[CrowsB4hoes]

Hawks if they are good will lift further up the ladder. North unbeaten but the table suggests they cant be trusted. We know the crows should have won both games they lost. The dogs are also beatable.

Do you mind if I add my alternative ladder on to your thread? It's been hiding in the General AFL thread the last 2 weeks, but I think this is a good place to discuss how we read the table.

My version just looks at the quality teams have beaten and lost to and is providing some interesting outcomes. I'm with you on the Dogs. They haven't beaten anyone of note yet - haven't been tested, but will next weekend against the Roos.

 

[adelaidecrows]

Do you mind if I add my alternative ladder on to your thread? It's been hiding in the General AFL thread the last 2 weeks, but I think this is a good place to discuss how we read the table.

My version just looks at the quality teams have beaten and lost to and is providing some interesting outcomes. I'm with you on the Dogs. They haven't beaten anyone of note yet - haven't been tested, but will next weekend against the Roos.

Go your hardest

 

[CrowsB4hoes]

Okay - rules are pretty simple. For each team you win against, you gain points for the number of games your beaten opponent has won. For each team you lose against, you lose points for the number of games your victor has lost. So for us, our win against Port gives us +2 points (as they have a 2 in the W column) and our loss to the Hawks gives us -1 points (as they have lost only the once).

Updated scored for Round 5:

10 points:
Hawks (+4 from previous round)
Roos (+4)

7 points:
Sydney (+5)

6 points:
Crows (-)
Cats (+3)

4 points:
GWS (+2)

2 points:
Melbourne (+2)
Bulldogs (+2)

0 points:
West Coast (-1)

-1 points:
Brisbane (-2)

-2 points:
Gold Coast (-)

-3 points:
Port (-2)

-5 points:
Collingwood (-)
St Kilda (-2)

-6 points:
Essendon (-4)

-8 points:
Carlton (-2)
Richmond (-3)

-9 points:
Freo (-6)

Some observations:
- despite their win, Carlton will lost 2 points. This is because they only beat Freo, who have no wins, so they don't gain any points. But the teams they lost against throughout the year collectively lost another 2 games. As we get more into the season, we will see this more and more. I might start thinking about weighting the results - maybe only full points count for the last 5 rounds, and half points the remainder?? Maybe something to think about for 2017.

- Suns and Dogs have still not beaten any sides that have won more than 1 game each. This is why they are sitting in mid-low end of the table.

- we are sitting best out of the 3-2 sides, because our 2 losses earn us just -1 points, for Hawthorns loss to Geelong. On the other side, Sydney gives us +4 and Port +2.

- Port sit below Brisbane, as Port have only beaten sides who themselves have only won 1 game. Brisbane's win against GC netted them +3 points. Port have also lost to us and GWS who have also lost 2 games, but both of us sit high on this ladder, as our losses were against quality (can I call Melbourne quality yet?) .

- interesting threads to come out next round - can Bulldogs claim a big scalp and earn +5 points by beating the Roos? The winner of Gold Coast and Geelong will gain themselves some valuable points and likely establish themselves in the top 4. We'll probably slip down a bit, as a win against Freo is no good for us, but a loss would be disastrous (on many levels).

Going to try an easy way to convert the 2015 ladder to my system, just to see if it brings out any different results. Stay tuned. It may require additional funding, so if anyone reading this is a billionaire Chinese property developer, let's talk.

 

[adelaidecrows]

Crows defensive efficiency increased and while our offensive efficiency has dropped slightly we are still the 2nd most efficient side in the comp going forward. I will put the whole competition rankings table up after tomorrow.

Port have improved their rankings slightly but are still in the middle of the table. What this means really is that Port aren't the worst team in the comp (that goes to Shitmond) but they are a middle of the road team......However according to Kane, this means they are premiership favourites and rule in all categories and Geelong at skilled would be smacked by the Power.

 

[adelaidecrows]

Round 6


Key points:
After round 6 Adelaide is still sitting comfortable 2nd in scoring efficiency and is #1 in the league for points scored. Adelaide's defensive efficiency is still a problem but it has improved ranking 10th for points conceded.

Geelong are clearly the best team in the competition well ahead of the current undefeated league leaders which the table suggests are lucky to be top. No doubt an easy draw has contributed to North's current position.

The table suggests that the reigning premiers are no longer a premiership threat. they lack scoring potency and their defence is questionable. I think the premiers will come from a team inside the top 6.

The Western Bulldogs simply have lost their ability to score. They can defend with the best of them but just can't score to save their life. Unless they fix this in a hurry they could even fall out of the finals equation.

Gold coast have been found out and are a middle of the road team while Port have this ability to be an efficient side when they try. They did play shitmond though so I suspect this rise is temporary and as they play better teams they will be found out.........again.

Beware of Brisbane and Fremantle. Both are playing better than there ladder position suggests and both could cause problems for sides jostling for positions in the final 8 towards the end of the season.

 

[Doctor B]

 

[Carmo]

geelong way over-rated. They played hawks at close to their weakest for they year, at home, got bucket load of umpire help. They beat the formerly high ranked gold coast who have virtually no depth and now have several injuries to first team players. They lost to 5th placed GWS. Apart from that Bris, Ess and Port

 

[adelaidecrows]

geelong way over-rated. They played hawks at close to their weakest for they year, at home, got bucket load of umpire help. They beat the formerly high ranked gold coast who have virtually no depth and now have several injuries to first team players. They lost to 5th placed GWS. Apart from that Bris, Ess and Port

Statistics can only be applied based on who they play. Unfortunately it creates anomalies but its hard to suggest Geelong aren't one of the best teams in the competition.

 

[earlsta]

I can't wait to pop into the "are Geelong a premiership threat" thread on the main board in two weeks time. We have the tools to tear them apart. They've yet to face an efficient forward line like ours. It will be a Massive Friday night game, everyone will be watching it, that's for sure.

 

[CrowsB4hoes]

Okay - rules are pretty simple. For each team you win against, you gain points for the number of games your beaten opponent has won. For each team you lose against, you lose points for the number of games your victor has lost. So for us, our win against Port gives us +2 points (as they have a 2 in the W column) and our loss to the Hawks gives us -1 points (as they have lost only the once).

Updated scored for Round 5:

10 points:
Hawks (+4 from previous round)
Roos (+4)

7 points:
Sydney (+5)

6 points:
Crows (-)
Cats (+3)

4 points:
GWS (+2)

2 points:
Melbourne (+2)
Bulldogs (+2)

0 points:
West Coast (-1)

-1 points:
Brisbane (-2)

-2 points:
Gold Coast (-)

-3 points:
Port (-2)

-5 points:
Collingwood (-)
St Kilda (-2)

-6 points:
Essendon (-4)

-8 points:
Carlton (-2)
Richmond (-3)

-9 points:
Freo (-6)

Some observations:
- despite their win, Carlton will lost 2 points. This is because they only beat Freo, who have no wins, so they don't gain any points. But the teams they lost against throughout the year collectively lost another 2 games. As we get more into the season, we will see this more and more. I might start thinking about weighting the results - maybe only full points count for the last 5 rounds, and half points the remainder?? Maybe something to think about for 2017.

- Suns and Dogs have still not beaten any sides that have won more than 1 game each. This is why they are sitting in mid-low end of the table.

- we are sitting best out of the 3-2 sides, because our 2 losses earn us just -1 points, for Hawthorns loss to Geelong. On the other side, Sydney gives us +4 and Port +2.

- Port sit below Brisbane, as Port have only beaten sides who themselves have only won 1 game. Brisbane's win against GC netted them +3 points. Port have also lost to us and GWS who have also lost 2 games, but both of us sit high on this ladder, as our losses were against quality (can I call Melbourne quality yet?) .

- interesting threads to come out next round - can Bulldogs claim a big scalp and earn +5 points by beating the Roos? The winner of Gold Coast and Geelong will gain themselves some valuable points and likely establish themselves in the top 4. We'll probably slip down a bit, as a win against Freo is no good for us, but a loss would be disastrous (on many levels).

Going to try an easy way to convert the 2015 ladder to my system, just to see if it brings out any different results. Stay tuned. It may require additional funding, so if anyone reading this is a billionaire Chinese property developer, let's talk.

Updated for Round 6:

15 Points:
North (+5 from last week) [- no difference to ladder position]

11 Points:
Hawks (+1) [+6 increase over ladder position]
Sydney (+4) [+1]

10 Points:
Geelong (+4) [-2 decrease from ladder position]
GWS (+6) [+1]

7 Points:
Crows (+1) [+1]

3 Points:
Bulldogs (+1) [-3]

1 Point:
West Coast (+1) [-2]

-1 Points:
Port (+2) [+2]

-2 Points:
Melbourne (-4) [-1]

-3 Points:
Brisbane (-2) [+5]
Gold Coast (-1) [-1]

-4 Points:
St Kilda (+1) [-1]

-8 Points:
Collingwood (-3) [-1]

-10 Points:
Carlton (-2) [-1]

-12 Points:
Essendon (-6) [+1]
Richmond (-4) [-1]

-13 Points:
Fremantle (-4) [-]

A big weekend for GWS sees them leap frog us and cement themselves in the upper echelons of the league.

This confirms that the current top 6 are a clear cut above the rest - and if we can do the job against the Bulldogs, this will further confine them down the ladder and solidify the wheat from the chaff.

My points system doesn't take into account H&A (when I get my Chinese investor on board, I can put some money into upgrades) but it's interesting to see that West Coast aren't quite in the same pack as the others, when I would have had them up there as contenders.

Interestingly, both West Coast and Bulldogs haven't beaten a side who has won more than 2 matches this season. This is on the same level as Port, Richmond and Gold Coast. This shows their wins have been against teams that other teams are beating.

On the other side, we haven't lost a game to a team who has lost more than 2 games. This is consistent with Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney, West Coast, Bulldogs ... and funny enough, Brisbane and Port. This tells us that our losses have been against teams that haven't lost too many themselves - they've been against quality. This is why I think Brisbane may surprise, and unfortunately why I think Port will come good and probably make the 8 (boo.....). But it's Port v Brisbane this weekend, so who knows (I know, Port will thump them and be back, because I'm a Tottenham supporter and God hates me.

I've added a new indicator, which is the position on this ladder compared to the actual ladder. You can see that Hawks & Brisbane position on the AFL ladder understates their actual position, due to the toughness of their draw. On the other side, Bulldogs and West Coast ladder positions flatter them. They needs to beat some quality to earn their ladder position. Starting the round after this week!

Anyway, just a bit of fun and interesting analysis for me anyway.

 

[CrowsB4hoes]

Round 6
View attachment 242104

Key points:
After round 6 Adelaide is still sitting comfortable 2nd in scoring efficiency and is #1 in the league for points scored. Adelaide's defensive efficiency is still a problem but it has improved ranking 10th for points conceded.

Geelong are clearly the best team in the competition well ahead of the current undefeated league leaders which the table suggests are lucky to be top. No doubt an easy draw has contributed to North's current position.

The table suggests that the reigning premiers are no longer a premiership threat. they lack scoring potency and their defence is questionable. I think the premiers will come from a team inside the top 6.

The Western Bulldogs simply have lost their ability to score. They can defend with the best of them but just can't score to save their life. Unless they fix this in a hurry they could even fall out of the finals equation.

Gold coast have been found out and are a middle of the road team while Port have this ability to be an efficient side when they try. They did play shitmond though so I suspect this rise is temporary and as they play better teams they will be found out.........again.

Beware of Brisbane and Fremantle. Both are playing better than there ladder position suggests and both could cause problems for sides jostling for positions in the final 8 towards the end of the season.

That's an interesting analysis, as mine tells a completely different story. Wins against Bulldogs and us help, and doing the business against Melbourne and Gold Coast who have earned good wins themselves show it hasn't been all easy pickings for the Roos.

I have them clear leaders, but things can change quickly.

I agree with the Brisbane analysis, and even though my table doesn't indicate it, I think Freo will come good. I am actually picking them this week!

 

[6BTS]

ESPN have something similar which they call Power Rankings.

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...gs-roos-giants-riding-high-suns-hawks-sliding

 

[adelaidecrows]

Adelaide are in a holding pattern which is a good thing. We are playing good football and could easily be closer to the top of the ladder.

I can't see the top 8 on the ladder changing at all this year unless a team really hits the skids but the other 10 teams just seem incapable of producing consistent enough performances. When you look at the individual scoring and efficiency points of those bottom 10 teams, they all have been accumulated with data from playing bottom teams. The lack of bonus points is telling amongst those at the bottom if any argument is to be entered into about finals legitimacy.

Bonus Points awarded this weekend
Geelong, Melbourne and Western Bulldogs

Bonus Point games this week (team in bold eligable)
Adelaide v Geelong
Essendon V North Melbourne
Hawthorn V Fremantle
GWS v Gold Coast
Richmond V Sydney
Carlton V Port
Melbourne V Western Bulldogs
West Coast V St Kilda

 

[Doctor B]

 

[adelaidecrows]

Round 8


Firstly
Adelaide; After a tough draw, sitting in a neutral position at this stage of the season is pretty good. Statistically against Gold Coast next week, we should win. We are playing a side with a defensive efficiency worse then our own, a side that has failed to earn any bonus points and our scoring efficiency is 2 points greater.

Port Adelaide; Interesting to note that as of the first 8 rounds, Port are one of 7 sides yet to earn a bonus point and that they have only managed to defeat statistically bad sides and fall away badly against better opposition.

Rest of the competition; Based on the lack of bonus points earned by every side outside of the top 8 I genuinely think the top 8 will not change. I know people will point out west coast, but they will earn bonus points at home no doubt. They play like a premiership side at home at Brisbane away. Adelaide should hold onto a finals spot because our scoring efficiency is just way too good and bound to earn both upsets against better sides (like Sydney) and blow crap teams away. North Melbourne is the side that I predict by the end of the year will fall away and finish in the bottom half of the 8. Time will tell.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

View attachment 244798

Surprising the hawks have lots to do... But they are still well placed to be dangerous.

Interesting that the Dees are probably 9th best.

 

[CrowsB4hoes]

Update for Round 8 (Apologies for no Round 7 update).

Geelong - 22 points (+6 from last week)
North - 21 (+2)
GWS - 16 (+3)
Hawks - 16 (+3)
Bulldogs - 13 (+5)
Sydney - 10 (-3)
Crows - 7 (-)
Eagles - 3 (+3)
Melbourne - -1 (-1)
Port - -5 (-4)
St Kilda - -6 (-3)
Carlton - -7 (+3)
Gold Coast - -9 (-3)
Richmond - -12 (+4)
Brisbane - -14 (-7)
Collingwood - -15 (-1)
Essendon - -17 (-3)
Fremantle - -22 (-4)

I have also done a table for the last 5 rounds

Geelong +17
GWS +15
Bulldogs +13
North +12
Carlton +6
Hawks +6
West Coast +4
Adelaide +1
Melbourne -
St Kilda -3
Sydney -3
Port -4
Richmond -7
Collingwood -9
Brisbane -10
Essendon -12
Fremantle -12
Gold Coast -14

Well, Cats, GWS and Bulldogs are on fire! But look at the Blues. They are hurt in the overall by the Round 1 loss to Carlton and Round 3 loss to Gold Coast, but those aside their results are decent. May be a smokey for the 8??

Pleasing for us is that consensus seems to be that after a flying start, we've tapered off, but in the last 5 rounds, our form is still top 8. That win against Sydney helps, which drops out of the last-5 this week, and a win against Gold Coast doesn't hold as much currency.

Speaking of Gold Coast, their last 5 are worst in the league - worse than Essendon and Fremantle. They are in complete dissaray and ripe for the picking.

Sydney's loss to Richmond stings.

Port have only beaten teams who have won no more than 2 games themselves. Aside from Freo who haven't beaten anyone, the only other team with such a stat is Collingwood. On the other side, we've only lost to teams who have lost no more than 2. Aside from North who haven't lost a game, the only other teams in such a position are Geelong, Hawthorn, West Coast and Bulldogs. Not bad company.

This makes me feel a bit better. We're starting to see our draw open up now, and should expect results against Gold Coast and St Kilda coming up. GWS is another test, West Coast in Perth, well no one expects to get anything there. Then its North at home, after we've had the bye and they are still to have theirs. North also have Geelong and Hawks the weeks before and should be tired. Our game is also a Thursday. A bit between now and then, but it is a game we need to win to start off the post-bye part of the season in good form.

 

[adelaidecrows]

The good news is Adelaide regained some form with some indicators pointing in the right direction. Adelaide is still the highest scoring team in the league and his holding nicely with the 2nd highest scoring efficiency rating. The defensive efficiency continues to improve as well. I know the argument is we played a Gold Coast 3rds side on the weekend, but so have teams like Geelong and North Melbourne.

I have gained more faith in my bonus points weighting system. The data points to a system that reflects the ladder but indicates form drops in comparison to ladder position. I see that its not really a fluke that the top 9 clubs in the competition have a combined total of 19 bonus points while the bottom half of the data table combined only have 4 and all these teams fill the bottom half of the ladder.

Port Adelaide seem to be in no-man's land. They are playing well enough to be 10th but are a team that appears to be right where they deserve to be at this stage. The failure to win a bonus point at this stage is telling. They have had 3 chances; GWS, Geelong and West Coast. I can realistically suggest it will be an uphill battle to win a game in the next for 4 weeks.

The Western Bulldogs are an enigma. They have the scoring efficiency of Collingwood and Richmond indicating they have very little ability to score. My impression is they are living precariously through their midfields defensive pressure. GWS broke them today and Hawthorn have also broken them. The Crows nearly stole the match coming from 38 points down at one stage to equal. I can see them falling away if they don't fix their scoring.

Hawthorn are shot, done, dusted, gonski! The ability to be the boss team on the day has gone limp. They get a bit of an easy time of it in the next few weeks which will keep their win/loss healthy but the data suggests they will have a hard time beating the teams above them.