Adjusting to Geelong's position in the AFL in 2014

MC Extra Dollop

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#26
Think we were worse at this point in 2012 myself. We are ahead of where I had us this year.
Spot on. We're looking similar to 2012, except we've got early wins on the board. Finals is a formality and a top four spot is still absolutely in our hands, which it wasn't really at any point in 2012. Smedts and Kersten are back this week and they'll either be pushing for senior spots within a month, or (worst-case scenario) significantly beef up the VFL team. Caddy and Christensen will be back to bolster the midfield by late June.

We've got two more games against current top four teams. We've got a game up in Metricon against Gold Coast in about a month, which will tell us a lot about just how good both teams are. We have three games remaining against North and Fremantle, two of them at Simonds and the other at Etihad. We have five games remaining at Simonds in total. We double-up against Carlton and Brisbane. We have only three interstate trips remaining, one of them against GWS. And eight of our remaining 14 games are against teams that are 11th or lower on the ladder. So we could lose every game against a team that's higher than 11th currently and still finish on 14 wins and a probable home elimination final. And I think we'll do a bit better than that.

16 wins should absolutely still be the goal. And 16 wins generally gets teams into the top four, particularly in a year where all of the top teams have either looked very vulnerable at times this year, or have yet to truly be tested.
 

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kicksome

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#27
the only way we will win the flag this year is if we dont play fremantle in the finals at all and we dont play hawks in a cut throat final
so we need a finals run similar to this: port, collingwood, sydney :)
 
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#28
Geelong has been on a decline for a while IMO. Our great players are either retired, or on the verge of.

Geelong has been ultra-competitive and hard-working for a long time, and we should be so, so proud of the club, and the team.

The thing that drives me bananas is that people forget the lean times, and that includes losing the four GFs from 89-95. They take our current success for granted, and jump off the club when we enter an inevitable decline.
I remember being so excited in 2002 when we had a bevy of young players that were showing so much promise.
They delivered - that's that. Three premierships is more than I ever dreamed of. We worked hard for them.
What I don't want to see is our supporters having a sense of entitlement - that we're so special.
Geelong has remained humble throughout our success and unlike larger clubs, we have not thrown our weight around and belitttled the smaller clubs.

We have done things right. We can hold our heads up very high.

Inevitably, a decline will occur, but to what extent remains to be seen. Geelong surprised me last year, and they have surprised me this year.
We have continued great achievements longer than I expected. We have been hunted for so long, and it gets harder to remain at the top.

We are doing well this year and we should be very pleased - we have only lost to Fremantle and Port away - Port are yet to lose at the Adelaide Oval, and Fremantle match up well against us - as all Ross Lyon teams do (Saints Footy cum Dockers Footy seems to work well)...

The team deserves our support for the rest of the year. I think they've been super so far. It's a tough competition.
 
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#29
Spot on. We're looking similar to 2012, except we've got early wins on the board. Finals is a formality and a top four spot is still absolutely in our hands, which it wasn't really at any point in 2012. Smedts and Kersten are back this week and they'll either be pushing for senior spots within a month, or (worst-case scenario) significantly beef up the VFL team. Caddy and Christensen will be back to bolster the midfield by late June.

We've got two more games against current top four teams. We've got a game up in Metricon against Gold Coast in about a month, which will tell us a lot about just how good both teams are. We have three games remaining against North and Fremantle, two of them at Simonds and the other at Etihad. We have five games remaining at Simonds in total. We double-up against Carlton and Brisbane. We have only three interstate trips remaining, one of them against GWS. And eight of our remaining 14 games are against teams that are 11th or lower on the ladder. So we could lose every game against a team that's higher than 11th currently and still finish on 14 wins and a probable home elimination final. And I think we'll do a bit better than that.

16 wins should absolutely still be the goal. And 16 wins generally gets teams into the top four, particularly in a year where all of the top teams have either looked very vulnerable at times this year, or have yet to truly be tested.

Smashing post. Great, level headed analysis. Could not have expressed it so well.
 

Partridge

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#30
Inevitably, a decline will occur, but to what extent remains to be seen. Geelong surprised me last year, and they have surprised me this year.
We have continued great achievements longer than I expected. We have been hunted for so long, and it gets harder to remain at the top.

We are doing well this year and we should be very pleased - we have only lost to Fremantle and Port away - Port are yet to lose at the Adelaide Oval, and Fremantle match up well against us - as all Ross Lyon teams do (Saints Footy cum Dockers Footy seems to work well)...

The team deserves our support for the rest of the year. I think they've been super so far. It's a tough competition.
That's all absolutely fine and reasonable. But there's nothing wrong with getting frustrated at losses to the same opponent the exact same way time and time again. There's nothing wrong with querying why some players are immune to being dropped, and others apparently are immune to being selected. There's nothing with querying the selection policies when some statements appear to be blatantly contradicted by the actions that immediately follow. There's nothing wrong with querying why we're playing 2 ruckmen and an almost-ruckman when it leaves our midfield (which then gets belted) one short. There's nothing wrong with querying why neither of our backup key forwards can get picked when no one else is doing the job, and both have actually gone ok in that position this season. And there's certainly nothing wrong with querying the mental faculties of a senior player who gets suspended 5 times in around 30 games.

All of these things can occur and you can still support the team. As soon as you say "oh well, we won 3 flags, we're going to slide, it's inevitable" then you might as well wave the white flag. We have to strive to get better every year, not just meekly accept we'll be worse.
 

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#31
Spot on. We're looking similar to 2012, except we've got early wins on the board. Finals is a formality and a top four spot is still absolutely in our hands, which it wasn't really at any point in 2012. Smedts and Kersten are back this week and they'll either be pushing for senior spots within a month, or (worst-case scenario) significantly beef up the VFL team. Caddy and Christensen will be back to bolster the midfield by late June.

We've got two more games against current top four teams. We've got a game up in Metricon against Gold Coast in about a month, which will tell us a lot about just how good both teams are. We have three games remaining against North and Fremantle, two of them at Simonds and the other at Etihad. We have five games remaining at Simonds in total. We double-up against Carlton and Brisbane. We have only three interstate trips remaining, one of them against GWS. And eight of our remaining 14 games are against teams that are 11th or lower on the ladder. So we could lose every game against a team that's higher than 11th currently and still finish on 14 wins and a probable home elimination final. And I think we'll do a bit better than that.

16 wins should absolutely still be the goal. And 16 wins generally gets teams into the top four, particularly in a year where all of the top teams have either looked very vulnerable at times this year, or have yet to truly be tested.
All of this is true , but my question is really not whether we will make the finals or top 4 , but how good are we.

Im not sure that we can really be sure by just winning enough games or beating teams at KP. We beat Freo there thru H & A , and then saw them smash us when it counted. I had the distinct feeling after that game that it had devalued all our our wins at our home ground , when the most important game against a fully packed side was a failure.

To often thru the year now teams play a managed game , they play a conservative route of resting , and playing on fit players.. but once the finals start one gets a better feel for where your really stand.

So in regards to the OP where we stand in the AFL as a flag threat or as a club?

I think we still stand high as a club , we still have a fair bit of currency from our "era" , and most pundits and supports can see we are rebuilding and trying to win at the same time. It don thru necessity , perhaps be a proactive to ensure there was no Brisbane like dip which our coach would have seen.

Where we stand as a team and a flag threat will greatly depend on how much our side improves with the players that we can add and how long they take to come to form. How much can Smedts,Caddy, Christensen add. Can Kersten and any unknowns add or improve us. Its looks like Bews may be capable of adding but not sure if it will improve us significantly this year. Are the players in our side now playing near as good as can be expected? Motlop has more to give but Im not sure there is a lot in anyone else short term. A lot have upside but just as many have started the decline down the other side of the mountain.

I guess what Im saying is in theory ..IF all hit form and IF most stay fit and IF the younger players are playing at their most consistent best for a period of 3-5 weeks in late Aug Sept then we can win it. This would be the logic of most clubs in the 8 that are "hope" focused. My guess is when we were at out best there was less hope , we were 10% better it allowed for a bigger margin of error
 

MC Extra Dollop

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#32
All of this is true , but my question is really not whether we will make the finals or top 4 , but how good are we.

Im not sure that we can really be sure by just winning enough games or beating teams at KP. We beat Freo there thru H & A , and then saw them smash us when it counted. I had the distinct feeling after that game that it had devalued all our our wins at our home ground , when the most important game against a fully packed side was a failure.

To often thru the year now teams play a managed game , they play a conservative route of resting , and playing on fit players.. but once the finals start one gets a better feel for where your really stand.

So in regards to the OP where we stand in the AFL as a flag threat or as a club?

I think we still stand high as a club , we still have a fair bit of currency from our "era" , and most pundits and supports can see we are rebuilding and trying to win at the same time. It don thru necessity , perhaps be a proactive to ensure there was no Brisbane like dip which our coach would have seen.

Where we stand as a team and a flag threat will greatly depend on how much our side improves with the players that we can add and how long they take to come to form. How much can Smedts,Caddy, Christensen add. Can Kersten and any unknowns add or improve us. Its looks like Bews may be capable of adding but not sure if it will improve us significantly this year. Are the players in our side now playing near as good as can be expected? Motlop has more to give but Im not sure there is a lot in anyone else short term. A lot have upside but just as many have started the decline down the other side of the mountain.

I guess what Im saying is in theory ..IF all hit form and IF most stay fit and IF the younger players are playing at their most consistent best for a period of 3-5 weeks in late Aug Sept then we can win it. This would be the logic of most clubs in the 8 that are "hope" focused. My guess is when we were at out best there was less hope , we were 10% better it allowed for a bigger margin of error
At this stage, I think it's wide open and we are one of seven teams that can win the flag from this point (and I might even be tempted to include West Coast to that list, depending on what they show over the next 2-3 weeks). We're not as good as we once were, but I think it is a very weak year overall for the league and that it will just come down to which team gets hot at the right time. I think any of the top four teams from 2009 (the strongest recent season in the league, as far as I'm concerned) would cruise to the 2014 premiership, on what we've seen so far. We have arguably the best defence (I think it's the best by far, on paper), probably in the top handful of midfields (and certainly among the deepest when Caddy and Christensen return) and a solid/good ruck pair.

The question mark is in the forward line, specifically the second key forward and a consistent avenue to goal from the smaller players. Bartel is on track for a solid, but unspectacular 30 goals. Murdoch is on track for just under 25. Varcoe, GHS, Johnson and Selwood look like they'll be around the 20 mark. And that's about it. It's not enough. Hawkins is good, but we need about 1-2 goals per game from a second tall option (whether that's McIntosh, Kersten, Brown, Walker, Taylor, Blicavs, Simpson or - most likely - some combination of all of them) and we need about a goal per game more from a small (Smedts, Christensen, Caddy, McCarthy, Burbury, plus the incumbents). Fortunately we have a few possible answers, but we have to see it in action to have complete confidence.
 
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#36
Having a look at our fixture for the rest of the season, it looks pretty good
Only have to travel to play Sydney, then only twice more to Gold Coast and GWS
North at Simonds - tough but favourites to win
Sydney at SCG - probably lose
Carlton at Etihad - should win
St Kilda at Simonds - win
Gold Coast at Metricon - tough but would back us to win at this stage
Essendon at Etihad - should win
Bulldogs at SImonds - win
Melbourne at MCG - win
GWS @ Skoda - win
North at Etihad - tough
Freo at Simonds - who knows but Simonds factor helps
Carlton at Etihad - should win
Hawthorn at MCG - win :)
Brisbane at SImonds - win

although we will probably drop a couple of winnable ones it isnt a bad run home, should be top 4 but there are 6 or 7 teams that could all push for top 4
I reckon bolds are losses and we finish just outside the four at 15-7. Not liking the Freo and North double ups at all and I can see us getting done against the Gold Cost away.
 

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Goggin Our Best

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#38
Yeah but that's impossible to say. How many all time greats did you see in 2003 with Corey and Ling and Chapman and Enright? I'd say roughly none.
Thats an excellent point that

I can remember listening to the radio coverage of the final game of the season early 2000s - the game out at Carlton - where Milburn felled Silvagni - and the Cats didnt score a goal after qtr time - probably Geelongs darkest day - outside of a couple of GF thumpings

Dwayne Russell ( who for all is shortcomings - but he loves the Cats) was on the ABC - i think with David McKay -at the end of the game - Russell went through the whole Geelong list - from A to Z with McKay - as to who would make it - and who wouldnt

Dwayne ( who was pretty exasperated - because of Geelongs shocking effort ) was asking - will Joel Corey make it ? - there was total silence - will Corey Enright make it - same response

God - if you cant get bullish on Cam Guthrie- hes one of the most talented young players Geelongs had for a fair while - the skill ( how was that torp he kicked from FB - which landed in the centre) and pace - he could be a superstar

Likewise GHS - might not be a super star - but is looking like a real good player
 

Partridge

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#39
Thats an excellent point that

I can remember listening to the radio coverage of the final game of the season early 2000s - the game out at Carlton - where Milburn felled Silvagni - and the Cats didnt score a goal after qtr time - probably Geelongs darkest day - outside of a couple of GF thumpings

Dwayne Russell ( who for all is shortcomings - but he loves the Cats) was on the ABC - i think with David McKay -at the end of the game - Russell went through the whole Geelong list - from A to Z with McKay - as to who would make it - and who wouldnt

Dwayne ( who was pretty exasperated - because of Geelongs shocking effort ) was asking - will Joel Corey make it ? - there was total silence - will Corey Enright make it - same response

God - if you cant get bullish on Cam Guthrie- hes one of the most talented young players Geelongs had for a fair while - the skill ( how was that torp he kicked from FB - which landed in the centre) and pace - he could be a superstar

Likewise GHS - might not be a super star - but is looking like a real good player
Yep it was the last round in 2001. I was there. Very dark day and looked like we were going absolutely nowhere.

By relative comparison (and this doesn't mean they'll be as good), Guthrie and Horlin-Smith are miles ahead of where Enright and Corey and company were. Murdoch is progressing nicely, as is Caddy. Simpson has stalled a little but I'm confident he'll get there. The big question is the mountain of other sub-50 gamers we have. And for most it's still far too soon to tell.

The problem is we just don't have any patience as supporters now. At all. Most were comfortable with Brown playing seniors after a good pre-season and a very good Round 1 effort. Two quiet games later and it's off with his head. Same goes for Burbury and Thurlow and everyone else. We've just got to wait.
 

romeoh

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#40
Yep we are not a great team, we are good. Doing better than I expected this year, so am pretty happy. None of the teams in the comp are great this year so what's the big deal? Port look great, but big step up to win flag.( but wouldn't mind for Kenny) Hawks will be done by injuries ( all those good players injured wears the rest of the team out picking up the slack), Swans -let's see-looked very ordinary till 2 weeks ago, Freo -looked good against us, but flakey before that-let's see.
Still being grateful for small mercies, can you imagine if BF had existed in those depressing decades we had? The meltdowns would have been epic. And lots of fun!
 

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#41
Given our recent history, I wouldn't say any sides are "easy beats". If Richmond got within 5 points, who knows what other sides will be able to do. Some of the lesser sides worry me this year, such as GC.



North will play well against Geelong. No doubt in my mind about it. How often have they played poorly against us over the last few years? They're like most sides. They're allowed to play their best against Geelong.
I agree that NO side is an easy beat.
This year, I no longer regard GC as a lesser side- in fact, I very much doubt we'll see a win against them for the next 4 years or so. Watch that come back to bite me later this year. But I'm serious, GC are a very talented side whose players are all starting to find self-belief, and they are winning games in Melbourne regularly.
Demons and Bulldogs will be a challenge this year, definitely.

I'm hoping NM will be affected by lack of pressure for the past 2 weeks, the bye, and last week, Brisbane were pitiful- apparently a gastro bug affected a lot of the team. Geelong will hit them hard and down at Geelong, in possible adverse conditions, no roof- yes, I'm hoping.
But NM this year is different- have beaten Sydney away iirc, Port, &Freo away, and not all at Etihad. So, who knows? SJ missing is balanced by Wells missing.
 

Geelong_Sicko

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#42
What I don't want to see is our supporters having a sense of entitlement - that we're so special.
Geelong has remained humble throughout our success and unlike larger clubs, we have not thrown our weight around and belitttled the smaller clubs.

We have done things right. We can hold our heads up very high.
Too right. If we become like Hawthorn fans I say it's time to release the modified ebola virus worldwide - mankind deserves global extinction sooner than suffer another lot like that!
 

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#43
I think everyone is freaking out a bit. We're 4th on the ladder and have had some tough games. Let's see how Port go playing the Hawks, or Sydney travelling to the west etc etc. Our hardest game by far will be the Syd one up there. Gold Coast will drop a fair few games away also.

The boys have the talent but for some reason it's just not coming together lately.

I'm sure after the loss last week they all have something to prove on Friday. And if Scott doesn't play our best squad, well we know where we went wrong.
 

Biggy_Boy

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#46
premiership teams dont beat richmond by just 5 points
Yeah, and even though they're good sides and it was interstate, the way the side performed against Freo and Port didn't scream top 4 to me. In terms of where Geelong sits, I think this season bears greater resemblance to 2012 than a premiership year or last year. Think Geelong is, at the very least, a step off the top sides in the comp.
 

dazbroncos

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Moderator #47
Yep it was the last round in 2001. I was there. Very dark day and looked like we were going absolutely nowhere.

By relative comparison (and this doesn't mean they'll be as good), Guthrie and Horlin-Smith are miles ahead of where Enright and Corey and company were. Murdoch is progressing nicely, as is Caddy. Simpson has stalled a little but I'm confident he'll get there. The big question is the mountain of other sub-50 gamers we have. And for most it's still far too soon to tell.

The problem is we just don't have any patience as supporters now. At all. Most were comfortable with Brown playing seniors after a good pre-season and a very good Round 1 effort. Two quiet games later and it's off with his head. Same goes for Burbury and Thurlow and everyone else. We've just got to wait.
Chisel this in stone and put it at the top of the Cats board. Make everyone read it every time they log in and maybe, just maybe, they'll learn and remember…

Go Catters
 
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#50
Yeah, and even though they're good sides and it was interstate, the way the side performed against Freo and Port didn't scream top 4 to me. In terms of where Geelong sits, I think this season bears greater resemblance to 2012 than a premiership year or last year. Think Geelong is, at the very least, a step off the top sides in the comp.
I disagree.

I don't think we can win the flag, but then I didn't before the season either. However I still think we are comfortably a top 4 side.

We didn't make the most of our momentum in the Port game and got what we deserved for being wasteful, and while we got blown away in the first quarter against Freo, I thought we were pretty good after that, especially considering we had some of our seasoned campaigners having simultaneous shockers.

We haven't had a great run with injuries so far this year, and that hasn't helped either. I'll be waiting at least another couple of months before I even start contemplating any possible fatal flaws in our side/list.

Quite simply, I think our best footy is ahead of us this year.
 
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