Adrian Dodoro: Football’s Biggest Fraud IMO

[dave10]

Is Taranto the big body inside midfielder that Essendon should have drafted?

We need both he and McGrath! I think Taranto has work to do on his disposal which is traditionally an area of weakness for Essendon sides.

I think McGrath will be an elite midfielder with natural leadership capability. His 2nd half of last years season and best afield for Essendon in a final was a big step forward last year. The pre season and round 1 this year has seen him capitalise on a much higher fitness base enabling him to advance into the midfield where he’s building his possessions towards 25-30 per game speaks to his promising development.

As we speak I’m happy to have McGrath at Essendon. He’s young and developing well. Ball was well ahead of Hodge early, Hodge went past him as his career progressed. Some develop faster than others. Although I also really like McCluggage. Time will ultimately tell though..

 

[Spanish_Fly]

If Merrett is a top 10 mid in the comp, why does essendon's midfield have so many problems. Merrett is not a player that does his best work in close, he is just too light; he is not overly quick; and he is not a damaging kick.

Merrett goes about average and that is about it. You seem to be a poster caught up over-rating average players.

Maybe I'm watching the wrong games but I would have thought Zach Merrett would be considered one of the best kicks in the League.

 

[boncer34]

Maybe I'm watching the wrong games but I would have thought Zach Merrett would be considered one of the best kicks in the League.

He hits targets but it lacks penetration which is probably why people judge it not damaging.

 

[Spanish_Fly]

He hits targets but it lacks penetration which is probably why people judge it not damaging.

OK Cool, Will keep on eye on him I always thought he was a beautiful kick.

 

[Ambrosia]

Maybe I'm watching the wrong games but I would have thought Zach Merrett would be considered one of the best kicks in the League.

His kicking seems to have become less creative since his early years. I suspect it has a bit to do with having to shoulder an inside mid role that he’s not entirely suited to

 

[BronCrow]

He hits targets but it lacks penetration which is probably why people judge it not damaging.

The problem is that some people think if you are not a penetrating kick you are not damaging. You would think that someone that kicks the ball 40m and hits a target 8 times of 10 is more damaging than someone that kicks it 60m but more often than not kicks to a 50/50 contest at best wouldn't you?

 

[boncer34]

The problem is that some people think if you are not a penetrating kick you are not damaging. You would think that someone that kicks the ball 40m and hits a target 8 times of 10 is more damaging than someone that kicks it 60m but more often than not kicks to a 50/50 contest at best wouldn't you?

I agree.

I think he's a great kick but I can understand why some don't.

 

[BronCrow]

I agree.

I think he's a great kick but I can understand why some don't.

I wasn't specifically talking about him, but yes, whenever I see him he barely wastes it. It is also given to a teammate's advantage.

As opposed to someone like Paul Seedsman, who can kick the ball 60m but to nobody most of the time.

 

[TheKITC]

McGrath is already at the level he's describing. Its like he expects him not to improve at all. Would be interesting to see if he has the same view on similarly aged Blues players.

There's no need to get upset about it, post about me like I'm not here and bring up which team I support, it's been done to death in this thread and Carlton are not relevant here. It's surely not that hard to accept that some opinions differ to yours on the quality of a player is it? I have watched McGrath as much as or more any non-Essendon supporter could say they have; nothing he has shown suggests to me that he will be a star player but I have said he's good at most aspects of the game and I expect that to serve him well. He is only 21/22 so I could very well be wrong but I just don't see him becoming a gun... I think he is closer to his ceiling of ability than the two blokes taken directly after him, not that he won't improve just that I think his level is what I've stated.

 

[boncer34]

McGrath and Plowman are never going to be comparable from a stats POV or positionally, that was not the point at all.

The comparisons I was drawing is that they were both very high draft picks and (IMO at least) both have the ceiling of being good, solid players. I have previously said I think McGrath is good at most aspects, great at nothing and a B grader on exposed form and talent... I would put Plowman in that category too.

It's also extremely debatable that McGrath is much better than Plowman if at all, but not really something that warrants discussion here.

Aaron Francis and Lachlan Plowman AFL Stats Comparison

Aaron Francis and Lachlan Plowman AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

Plowman was a marginal upgrade on Francis last year and I know who I'm taking out of Francis and McGrath and it isn't close.

 

[Ambrosia]

There's no need to get upset about it, post about me like I'm not here and bring up which team I support, it's been done to death in this thread and Carlton are not relevant here. It's surely not that hard to accept that some opinions differ to yours on the quality of a player is it? I have watched McGrath as much as or more any non-Essendon supporter could say they have; nothing he has shown suggests to me that he will be a star player but I have said he's good at most aspects of the game and I expect that to serve him well. He is only 21/22 so I could very well be wrong but I just don't see him becoming a gun... I think he is closer to his ceiling of ability than the two blokes taken directly after him, not that he won't improve just that I think his level is what I've stated.

I’m not upset I just disagree with your rating. You haven’t brought any facts to the table just continually restated your opinion which you’re more than welcome to.

 

[citizen-erased]

OK Cool, Will keep on eye on him I always thought he was a beautiful kick.

He is. We have a few who are.
Merrett, Redman, McKenna, Saad, Langford, Fantasia, Tippa, Parish can be pinpoint too when the confidence is up.

We have two, maybe three, well documented issues in terms of the list.
1) Inside mid who extracts. We don't have an elite version. Heppell is the best and he's an ex-defensive flanker better suited as an outside receiver
2) KPF stocks. Daniher was never enough. Once we knew Gumbleton wasn't going to make it we really should have been looking to get one in. i.e Lynch at the draft opposed to Heppell
3) Rucks. We run thin here. Ryder leaving hurt. And we haven't plugged that gap. Leuenberger, Phillips, Clarke as backups to an ageing, injury prone and not very quick TBC has never been ideal.

There was a prediction that the 2013 & 2014 draft sanctions would come back to pinch.
I think we're seeing that, plus some negligence in picks (Morgan, Begley, couple of bites at Eades)

We really needed to be perfect in the drafts from 2013 through to 2016 to make up for that loss (which Dodoro would have us believe would have been Cripps, Lobb then one assumes Merrett and Fantasia follow)

I think we took a handful of speculatives and only one (Redman) has really worked out
Morgan, Begley, Mutch, etc.

 

[TheKITC]

Aaron Francis and Lachlan Plowman AFL Stats Comparison

Aaron Francis and Lachlan Plowman AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

Plowman was a marginal upgrade on Francis last year and I know who I'm taking out of Francis and McGrath and it isn't close.

At least Plowman and Francis is a reasonable comparison in terms of position and style, comparing stats of a small defender/mid to those players achieves absolutely nothing. Would you compare the stats of a small fwd to that of a ruckman to see who is tracking better as well? Comparing them on a stats basis is disingenuous IMO.

If we are going down the stats path with reference to McGrath, why don't we look at him vs McCluagge and Taranto which is apples for apples?

There is not one metric that I can see that paints McGrath in a better light than either of those two across their careers on average or in projecting improvement based on their sample sizes and extrapolating upon. He is ahead on rebound 50s by a small amount I guess?

Taranto for instance has seen a huge uptick in his disposals year on year and clearly had a breakout year last year. TT tackles more than both the others and averages about twice the amount of AM with the latter being the worst of the 3. If we are using the excuse that he has been a small defender, why are his tackle counts lower and rebound 50 stats only marginally better? What role has he filled? A lockdown defender as a #1 draft pick that doesn't tackle? McGrath kicks the least amount of goals (none are huge goal scorers on average) which can probably be excused on this basis and takes a similar but still the least amount of marks. McGraths kick - handball ratio is the worst of the 3 and he gets the least clearances, inside 50s, goal assists and draws the least frees as well.

The other two also show more improvement across most of their stats year on year. Now you could take the opinion that McGrath simply had the better debut season and it was harder for him to show this improvement, or it could be that he is closer to his ceiling and was a bit more developed. He has shown the least amount of statistical improvement from 1st to 3rd year, unless I have overlooked something and in fact has basically put out similar numbers across all categories. AM actually tackled less and made more clangers than he did in his first season, in 2019 but had a similar amount of the ball.

Outside of statistics and at the risk of repeating myself, to my eye and watching the 3 play in games, McGrath has less x factor and impact and appears to me to be the more 'vanilla' player. His work off the ball is nothing to marvel at, his defensive side doesn't strike me as a strength and he is not a big accumulator. The other two have shown varying amount of the above to show me that they have the scope to be better players, but they have indeed shown it and on a much more consistent basis as they've developed in my opinion.

Now you might disagree with some of this and they have all only completed 3 season, but again I stand by my opinions and observations.

I’m not upset I just disagree with your rating. You haven’t said brought any facts to the table just continually restated your opinion which you’re more than welcome to.

See above.

 

[Ambrosia]

If we are going down the stats path with reference to McGrath, why don't we look at him vs McCluagge and Taranto which is apples for apples?

There is not one metric that I can see that paints McGrath in a better light than either of those two across their careers on average or in projecting improvement based on their sample sizes and extrapolating upon. He is ahead on rebound 50s by a small amount I guess?

Taranto for instance has seen a huge uptick in his disposals year on year and clearly had a breakout year last year. TT tackles more than both the others and averages about twice the amount of AM with the latter being the worst of the 3. If we are using the excuse that he has been a small defender, why are his tackle counts lower and rebound 50 stats only marginally better? What role has he filled? A lockdown defender as a #1 draft pick that doesn't tackle? McGrath kicks the least amount of goals (none are huge goal scorers on average) which can probably be excused on this basis and takes a similar but still the least amount of marks. McGraths kick - handball ratio is the worst of the 3 and he gets the least clearances, inside 50s, goal assists and draws the least frees as well.

The other two also show more improvement across most of their stats year on year. Now you could take the opinion that McGrath simply had the better debut season and it was harder for him to show this improvement, or it could be that he is closer to his ceiling and was a bit more developed. He has shown the least amount of statistical improvement from 1st to 3rd year, unless I have overlooked something and in fact has basically put out similar numbers across all categories. AM actually tackled less and made more clangers than he did in his first season, in 2019 but had a similar amount of the ball.

Outside of statistics and at the risk of repeating myself, to my eye and watching the 3 play in games, McGrath has less x factor and impact and appears to me to be the more 'vanilla' player. His work off the ball is nothing to marvel at, his defensive side doesn't strike me as a strength and he is not a big accumulator. The other two have shown varying amount of the above to show me that they have the scope to be better players, but they have indeed shown it and on a much more consistent basis as they've developed in my opinion.

Now you might disagree with some of this and they have all only completed 3 season, but again I stand by my opinions and observations
See above.

Your argument has shifted. I never said McGrath will be as good as Taranto and McLuggage or is as good as them now. The fact he hasn’t been on similar trajectory to them doesn’t limit him to only being a B grader.

You’re also comparing the stats of guy who has played predominantly as a small defender to full time mids.

I also fail to see how you could say his defensive side isn’t a strength. I mentioned it before, which you ignored, but in his debut season champion data ranked him as the best defensive player in the comp (if you define defending as reducing your opponents output below expected output). I’d argue averaging 20 disposals from defence is a sign he is a strong accumulator.

Anyway it doesn’t really matter 2020 will be a good year to judge him as he looks set to move to the midfield where I expect he’ll excel.

 

[Richo83]

His kicking seems to have become less creative since his early years. I suspect it has a bit to do with having to shoulder an inside mid role that he’s not entirely suited to

Doesn't the fact that you're shoehorning players into the inside mid role when they're not suited to it prove my point that Essendon are crying out for a proper inside midfielder? Not a winger who is forced to play out of position?

 

[Ambrosia]

Doesn't the fact that you're shoehorning players into the inside mid role when they're not suited to it prove my point that Essendon are crying out for a proper inside midfielder? Not a winger who is forced to play out of position?

Maybe but I wouldn’t describe Merrett winger.

 

[TheKITC]

Your argument has shifted. I never said McGrath will be as good as Taranto and McLuggage or is as good as them now. The fact he hasn’t been on similar trajectory to them doesn’t limit him to only being a B grader.

His stats and lack of improvement across all facets over his career actually do point exactly to that, unless you think those are the stats of an A grade AFL player? Can he get better and does he have improvement in him? Very possibly but I'm using statistical proof, my eye and opinion to suggest that I don't think he is or will be a star or A grader. That's ny argument and I've used very like comparisons with the information we have currently (I think) to show that.

You’re also comparing the stats of guy who has played predominantly as a small defender to full time mids.

You haven't watched enough of Taranto or McClugage if you think they have been full time mids their entire 3 year careers. Both of those players have in fact been able to break into far stronger midfields than that of Essendon, further working against AM.

I also fail to see how you could say his defensive side isn’t a strength. I mentioned it before, which you ignored, but in his debut season champion data ranked him as the best defensive player in the comp (if you define defending as reducing your opponents output below expected output).

That is one, awfully specific metric you are using compared to the many facets that I spoke about, but I will take your word for it that he was ranked that way accordingly. Do you have a link for that? CD isn't something I've used a whole lot and is a little bit fraught IMO given some of the predictions we have seen using that system.

I believe it isn't a strength because his rebound 50 and tackling numbers are quite poor as well as actually watching the work he does from a defensive stand point. Is he a great spoiler? Not really. Does he take a lot of intercept marks? No. What makes him so good defensively?

I’d argue averaging 20 disposals from defence is a sign he is a strong accumulator.

I'd argue that is doesn't. Alex Witherden for example averaged around 4 more than that in his first season, for a poor Brisbane side. Nic Newman, an arguable B grader or less, averages exactly 20 for his career. Brayden Maynard averaged about 20 last year, is he a big accumulator? The bog average Jake Kelly averaged about 17 in his 3rd year, Alex Neal-Bullen 18.9 in his. Jamie MacMillan averaged 20.6 last year. Shall I keep going?

Anyway it doesn’t really matter 2020 will be a good year to judge him as he looks set to move to the midfield where I expect he’ll excel.

I think it will be a very good year to judge him as will the next year. We shall see..

 

[Ambrosia]

You haven't watched enough of Taranto or McClugage if you think they have been full time mids their entire 3 year careers.

I didn't say that. They definitely played full time mid in 2019 however.

That is one, awfully specific metric you are using compared to the many facets that I spoke about, but I will take your word for it that he was ranked that way accordingly. Do you have a link for that? CD isn't something I've used a whole lot and is a little bit fraught IMO given some of the predictions we have seen using that system.

The stats files: What makes each Rising Star stand out?

Peter Ryan looks at the stat that sets each contender apart

www.afl.com.au

Andrew McGrath (Essendon)
The No.1 pick has the best defender rating of any player in the competition with at least six or more match-ups of 40 or more minutes. The defender rating is based on what you concede to your opponent compared to his average output.

I believe it isn't a strength because his rebound 50 and tackling numbers are quite poor as well as actually watching the work he does from a defensive stand point. Is he a great spoiler? Not really. Does he take a lot of intercept marks? No. What makes him so good defensively?

Blokes who play defence generally have low tackle numbers. You're showing you haven't watched enough him with these comments, McGrath is excellent at spoiling.

I'd argue that is doesn't. Alex Witherden for example averaged around 4 more than that in his first season, for a poor Brisbane side. Nic Newman, an arguable B grader or less, averages exactly 20 for his career. Brayden Maynard averaged about 20 last year, is he a big accumulator? The bog average Jake Kelly averaged about 17 in his 3rd year, Alex Neal-Bullen 18.9 in his. Jamie MacMillan averaged 20.6 last year. Shall I keep going?

MacMillan's stats are bolstered by taking kickouts. I would say a strength of Newman's is accumulating the footy. Mcgrath averages over 25 touches across the past 3 games. He knows how to find the footy.

 

[Hawk_francais]

Didn't expect us to get Shiel (was convinced he was going to Carlton) same with Stringer all the talk during the trade period was Geelong was his preferd club.

Would love Cameron but don't think we will get him in saying that I wouldn't be shocked or surprised if Dodoro gets Cameron to the club. like I mentioned in a previous post Dodoro is a good salesman and with Shiel and Smith at the club already might make it more enticing for Cameron to join.

I also think Bombers did well to get those players. It was costly in both picks and salary however.

If you can get Cameron for peanuts, then obviously it seems a good move. I don't know if it is for the Bombers though. The only way he's likely to end up in Melbourne is on an unthinkably huge contract. That might be a disastrous move for Essendon's salary cap when they have Fantasia, McKenna on the brink of leaving, as well as Merrett, Francis, Parish and McGrath who will be offered more to play elsewhere. Cameron alone is not the answer to Essendon's next flag. If he came in and the club continued to underperform, it would be a bloodbath.

 

[TheKITC]

I didn't say that. They definitely played full time mid in 2019 however.

Therefore I was comparing the stats of players over their 3 year careers who have played a mix of midfield and flank positions thus far? Sounds pretty appropriate, fair and reasonable and exactly what I was looking to do. And as I also said, they were able to break into far stronger midfields which speaks further volume to my point.

The stats files: What makes each Rising Star stand out?

Peter Ryan looks at the stat that sets each contender apart

www.afl.com.au

Andrew McGrath (Essendon)
The No.1 pick has the best defender rating of any player in the competition with at least six or more match-ups of 40 or more minutes. The defender rating is based on what you concede to your opponent compared to his average output.

Thanks for posting that. That is one debatably garnered stat that goes in his favour, I will admit. One against the numerous I have raised, but one none the less.

Blokes who play defence generally have low tackle numbers.

Firsly, we were talking about the defensive side of his game, of which tackling is 100% an important aspect of when judging someone on this. Secondly, where did you pull that from? Blicavs (KPD) 4.3 per game over his career. Jack Crisp - 4.1. Sam Petrevski-Seton - 4.4 (same draft as AM). Andrew McGrath? 2.7. Which is worse than Jordan Roughead and Patrick Ambrose to name 2 other defenders who happen to be a lot bigger than him. He would be ranked as a below average defender for tackles, I'm sorry to say.

You're showing you haven't watched enough him with these comments, McGrath is excellent at spoiling.

Am I really? The same McGrath that averages 1 whole spoil per game? This would have him ranked as poor even as a midfielder which he mostly hasn't been. C'mon....

MacMillan's stats are bolstered by taking kickouts. I would say a strength of Newman's is accumulating the footy. Mcgrath averages over 25 touches across the past 3 games. He knows how to find the footy.

I see you have chosen to ignore the other names I mentioned, how convenient for your argument as is cherry picking his last 3 games because it suits you.

Sorry, but I'm not really buying much of what you are saying. Am enjoying a reasonably cordial discussion on the matter though

 

[boncer34]

At least Plowman and Francis is a reasonable comparison

Sure is.

Which is why I made it.

And while I appreciate the time and effort you put into your long winded rambling reply about nothing I said it was irrelevant to my point.

Francis isn't far behind Plowman. Francis is a mile behind McGrath therefore this

It's also extremely debatable that McGrath is much better than Plowman if at all,

Is false.

 

[TheKITC]

Sure is.

Which is why I made it.

And while I appreciate the time and effort you put into your long winded rambling reply about nothing I said it was irrelevant to my point.

You can call it 'long winded rambling' all you like, I suspect you're doing so because I am saying things you do not like as an Essendon supporter and this is your attempt at discrediting my opinion.

I will reiterate though; the reason I brought Plowman into the conversation was because I think their careers (being his and McGrath's) will end up much the same from an output POV and how people view them (that they will be B grade, solid citizens etc) and they share some similarities in circumstance, not because they are similar players. Comparing them from a statistical perspective to prove one is better than other is disingenuous and shows no real grasp of contextuality, ie. they are different players who do not play the same role or position.

Francis isn't far behind Plowman. Francis is a mile behind McGrath therefore this...

Is false.

It is not false, I'm sorry to have to tell that your opinion does not equal factuality. Your premise is essentially "Well Freo who are 10th beat Geelong who are 7th, and they beat Brisbane who are 3rd, therefore Freo > Brisbane " Doesn't really work that way... at all.

 

[boncer34]

You can call it 'long winded rambling' all you like

I did because it was nonsensical like the rest of this post I've just quoted. Try posting something that is both on point and logical and I'll listen. Until then have a pleasant evening.

 

[TheKITC]

I did because it was nonsensical like the rest of this post. Try posting some thing that is both on point and logical and I'll listen. Until then have a pleasant evening.

Again, your poor attempts at discrediting my opinions and posting are, well... poor.

Your refusal to engage with whole portions of my post(s) says absolutely everything, everyone needs to know about this exchange. It says a lot more about your posting than it does about mine in case you were wondering. Either attempt to address and respond to what I've said fully or don't bother quoting me. Cheers.

 

[boncer34]

Have a lovely evening. I looked for something relevant and logical to my point but again, nothing.