List Mgmt. Adrian Dodoro

Here_we_come

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Better players play more games. But mexabillions’ point was that it’s easier to reach more games if you’re in a poor team - which is a very good point. Thus, while the analysis of games played is interesting, it is not very meaningful because results are skewed depending on the quality of each draftee’s peers.

I mean, does anyone actually believe players like Myers would have reached anywhere near as many games had he been drafted by Collingwood, hawthorn, or Geelong over the last decade?
 

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Lore

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Better players play more games. But mexabillions’ point was that it’s easier to reach more games if you’re in a poor team - which is a very good point. Thus, while the analysis of games played is interesting, it is not very meaningful because results are skewed depending on the quality of each draftee’s peers.

I mean, does anyone actually believe players like Myers would have reached anywhere near as many games had he been drafted by Collingwood, hawthorn, or Geelong over the last decade?
David Myers may not have played 123 games in the teams you named, but he probably still would have played at least 100 games over his career, probably at multiple clubs. It's not exactly a huge number.

What it is, however, is a solid number of games for pick 6 in the draft. I'd take that over 35 games from a highly talented pick 2 any day.
 

Here_we_come

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David Myers may not have played 123 games in the teams you named,
It's not exactly a huge number.

What it is, however, is a solid number of games for pick 6 in the draft. I'd take that over 35 games from a highly talented pick 2 any day.
David Myers may not have played 123 games in the teams you named, but he probably still would have played at least 100 games over his career, probably at multiple clubs. It's not exactly a huge number.

What it is, however, is a solid number of games for pick 6 in the draft. I'd take that over 35 games from a highly talented pick 2 any day.
Maybe we’ll have to agree to disagree, but should 100 very average games for even a single club be considered a successful high first round draft pick? Let alone multiple clubs? I’d actually be annoyed if the club viewed that as a successful pick. I’d be interested to see how many of the 123 games were in the single figures for possessions.
 

GUMBLETRON

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I mean, does anyone actually believe players like Myers would have reached anywhere near as many games had he been drafted by Collingwood, hawthorn, or Geelong over the last decade?
He probably wouldn't have crippled his career by repeatedly shredding his hamstrings early on and knocked out a fair few more.
 

GUMBLETRON

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I read a good analysis a few years back pointing out how historically-crap clubs had fewer F/S prospects coming through because they churned through players trying to get good and as such didn't get enough to 100 games.

I can't find it now but if that holds it's a sound counter-argument.
 

eth-dog

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Maybe we’ll have to agree to disagree, but should 100 very average games for even a single club be considered a successful high first round draft pick? Let alone multiple clubs? I’d actually be annoyed if the club viewed that as a successful pick. I’d be interested to see how many of the 123 games were in the single figures for possessions.
9, at least 2 of which were as the sub, and another 3 were in games where he got injured early on due to lack of gametime and extended time out.
 

boncer34

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9, at least 2 of which were as the sub, and another 3 were in games where he got injured early on due to lack of gametime and extended time out.
That's interesting. I read somewhere over half his games were sub 20 touches at the start of the year.

He had a massive amount in the 10 - 20 range going by that. Pretty much mediocre for a midfielder.
 

Lore

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Maybe we’ll have to agree to disagree, but should 100 very average games for even a single club be considered a successful high first round draft pick? Let alone multiple clubs? I’d actually be annoyed if the club viewed that as a successful pick. I’d be interested to see how many of the 123 games were in the single figures for possessions.
It's not so much agree to disagree, it's more that you've misrepresented the point that I was making with the career games and then started carving chunks out of it over one player who played a very average number of games for a top 10 pick, in an average sort of way, with average sort of stats resulting in mostly average sort of opinions about his performances. I'd give it a pass, but it's not magna cum laude in the drafting stakes, and to my knowledge no one has ever claimed that it was. It's also a pretty minor thing to get hung up about when you're looking at 734 draftees over a period of ten years.

Imo if we're doing something like league average then on a scale of 1 to "sack dodo" we'd be closer to "this draft strategy needs tweaking in a couple of key areas". David Myers, notwithstanding.

I read a good analysis a few years back pointing out how historically-crap clubs had fewer F/S prospects coming through because they churned through players trying to get good and as such didn't get enough to 100 games.

I can't find it now but if that holds it's a sound counter-argument.
Makes sense. Would also lead to entrenched inequality if the number and quality of father-sons is in any way significant. One in a blue moon isn't going to tank the equalisation policy but 3-4 solid players going to the same clubs every year would certainly make you wonder.

It's one of the interesting things about northern academies – I don't begrudge them having academies generally or increasing the pool of available talent, but we're currently in that awkward teenage growth stage where it's successful enough on the one hand to give them a great advantage in the draft every year (and a 20% increase in draft capital as a result), but not quite successful enough yet to overflow and increase the quality of players available to any of the other clubs in the competition.

A the current stage all it's really achieved on a competition level is counteract the drain on available resources that comes with adding additional teams when the talent pool wasn't really there to support it.
 

Here_we_come

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I wasn’t trying to misrepresent your point or get hung up on Myers for that matter. I was merely using him as an example of why you can’t just take quantity of games as an indication of success.
 

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Maxabillions

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It’s pretty hard to objectively judge the quality of recruiter when the player each recruiter drafts are developed in a different environment.

Seems easier to compare say the top 5 players of every team as these are generally very naturally talented players who would be good no matter where they where developed.

Maybe looking at first rounds picks vs coaches votes would be a good way to compare against other teams.
 

owen87

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I wasn’t trying to misrepresent your point or get hung up on Myers for that matter. I was merely using him as an example of why you can’t just take quantity of games as an indication of success.
Injuries tanked his career, but he was a fairly consensus selection for where he went from memory, performed at a level commensurate to where he was drafted, and likely would have played 200 games had injuries not destroyed him. Superstars are few and far between, so judging a selection because they don't turn out to be a Brownlow medallist is a misnomer.

It's a fairly decent metric for what Lore is using it for; better players tend to play more games, both due to talent and durability. As Lore said, Myers played a fairly average number of games for a top 10 selection, performing at a fairly average level. If anything, it suggests that we have an unrealistic expectation as to what the career of a top 10 selection draftee will be.
 

lenny2013

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Was there anyone that we could have drafted with the Joey level of skill, potential and ability to fill a critical role for us at pick 5?
Not even close
If he leaves next year as RFA we will be lucky to get pick 10 as compo.
Will we get someone with Joe's ability with pick 10 next year?
 

ant555

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I wasn’t trying to misrepresent your point or get hung up on Myers for that matter. I was merely using him as an example of why you can’t just take quantity of games as an indication of success.
In the end he is really a failed pick for a top ten but it was more to do with injury. If he has no injury issues he plays 200 games and his best would have been good although not in the super star class.
 

windyhill

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2 relatively new teams stretched a talent pool that was stretched to begin with. Many players have got careers by being list cloggers or not up to it, not just Essendon. And good luck to them as they dilute the product.
 

citizen-erased

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2 relatively new teams stretched a talent pool that was stretched to begin with. Many players have got careers by being list cloggers or not up to it, not just Essendon. And good luck to them as they dilute the product.
AFL really should have sent North and StKilda to the VFL to allow for GCS and GWS (not too late to rectify that either)

We had a list ready to go in 2013 and 2014. we shot ourselves in the foot with the flag tilt.
Can't really blame Dodoro for that.

The rebuild has been a little scattershot since then
Dev, Saad, Stringer, Shiel - all good pickups, but not in line with the drafting (i.e Parish and Merrett much like Dev in their role, McGrath very much like Shiel, etc).
 

eth-dog

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AFL really should have sent North and StKilda to the VFL to allow for GCS and GWS (not too late to rectify that either)

We had a list ready to go in 2013 and 2014. we shot ourselves in the foot with the flag tilt.
Can't really blame Dodoro for that.

The rebuild has been a little scattershot since then
Dev, Saad, Stringer, Shiel - all good pickups, but not in line with the drafting (i.e Parish and Merrett much like Dev in their role, McGrath very much like Shiel, etc).
St. Kilda were in the best 3 teams in the league at the time, would have been a terrible call.
 

TDay

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If he leaves next year as RFA we will be lucky to get pick 10 as compo.
Will we get someone with Joe's ability with pick 10 next year?
We will have had an extra year of Joey. That's worth a couple of wins.
The odds of a good pick turning into someone as valuable to the team as Joe are not as good as the odds of Joe deciding to stay.

A calculated risk. Worth it.

Plus the swans would trade for him if we match their offer.
 

yaco55

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We will have had an extra year of Joey. That's worth a couple of wins.
The odds of a good pick turning into someone as valuable to the team as Joe are not as good as the odds of Joe deciding to stay.

A calculated risk. Worth it.

Plus the swans would trade for him if we match their offer.
People need to look at the bigger picture - Once there is a consistent trend of clubs matching offers for RFA, the AFLPA will get rid of AFLPA - And the even bigger picture is the Daniher name is culturally important for EFC, so if JD leaves you want it to be on good terms.
 

Rebellya

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People need to look at the bigger picture - Once there is a consistent trend of clubs matching offers for RFA, the AFLPA will get rid of AFLPA - And the even bigger picture is the Daniher name is culturally important for EFC, so if JD leaves you want it to be on good terms.
I think you meant AFPA will get rid of RFA, rather than themselves? Either way in 2020 if it is an option for us to match, and EFCs interests are served by matching then trading, then it’s what we should do. joe-and-the-family and the Swans need to be aware that we could and would match, and deal with it accordingly. it’s a game. Ideally we want the swans to strengthen our position or weaken theirs.

That is as big as the picture needs to be for EFC on this. The argument that we shouldn’t invoke a rule so that the rule doesn’t get changed to stop us invoking it seems a little flimsy to me.
 
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Yoda_

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I wasn’t trying to misrepresent your point or get hung up on Myers for that matter. I was merely using him as an example of why you can’t just take quantity of games as an indication of success.
And to think that someone was trying to be a smart arse when I pointed out the same thing. Stats can be read any which way you want them to.
 

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