AE AE18 Launch & Discussion thread

[11sjw]

Chose avoiding DZE elimination over going for a ND win. Given my shizen ND performance I had to do it!

 

[exe ex machina]

I have lost count of the amount heated discussions about this issue myself and Woodson have had in the last 5+ years on a Monday morning watching the NFL!

Seems to be no real solution and i have always played the card that a NON Tipster should NEVER be able to claim an ND win because a week of flukey road teams that salute giving them a win when they never even tipped. On the flipside then comes the issue of people getting gimme wins that are crucial to ND divisions results because they happen to be scheduled to play a bloke that has spat the dummy or gone AWOL by Week 8.

I did try to make a case for a NON tipper to get the average median score in a week that was not tipped -10. So if the average score for the week was 70odd for example that non tipster gets 60pts by the league average on the people that did tip and if you happened to play the NON tipper in an ND matchup you had to score more than 60 to beat him, which eliminates flukey road wins that can often see the non tipper win by pure fluke winning scenarios and the NFL is littered with them as all the time it was the non tipper getting MAX CR points on the road team during Monday night football ( last game of the week ) which is always mostly a 50/50 prime time game anyway!

When you make 1 decision regarding the non tipster rule it affects others no matter what you do leaving it nearly impossible to please everyone.

The most difficult thing about this comp and keeping it honest is working out what to do when blokes drop off and do not tip ******* everything with a knock on effect.

That's because you two never asked me how to fix it. A person with known registered IQ of 211. Maybe one day you two will ask me how.

 

[Chism]

That's because you two never asked me how to fix it. A person with known registered IQ of 211. Maybe one day you two will ask me how.

Horse has bolted and i will be VERY surprised if AE goes around again next season.

 

[BornAgainIdiot]

Horse has bolted and i will be VERY surprised if AE goes around again next season.

My recollection is AE was supposedly in doubt as far back as 2012 (#dogbox) yet here we all are. Just like a KISS retirement tour it’ll be back for “one last round”.

 

[Broken]

HOT STREAK UPDATE

The Week 11 leaderboard held strong this week, with those holding the 6 best active streaks coming in to this week only making 15 selections among them - and they went perfect.

The leaders are here to win it, and they're a bunch with a decent AE pedigree
Demonic Ascent , on an ND tear lately winning 6 of his last 7 matchups, started the week with an active streak of 23, took the joint lead with a correct selection of the Patriots to move to 24
pedge7, current ND #1 Schottenheimer ND seed, last years #1 Lamar Hunt ND seed, two time ND divisional winner and the Hot Streak leader from earlier this season, started the week with 20 and went large, adding the Cowboys, Saints, Ravens and Chargers to tie for the lead, then took the outright lead of 25 with a correct selection of the Colts in their nailbiter
AmericanCrow is no stranger to Hot Streak having claimed the inaugural title in 2015 and he moved from 16 to 18 to be within cooee (or the American equivalent) of the leaders.
TheGreatBarryB , the 2016 3XKO champion, added the Pats and Chargers wins to his streak to move to 17
mcgarnacle the 2015 HRS champ, added three teams (Bucs, Ravens and Chargers) to increase his total to 14
2011 3XKO champ shiny_on_top increased his total by 2 to move to 13 with the correct selections of the Saints and Chargers.

The rest of the competition went on a Hot Streak frenzy, tipping games left right and center to try and get some purchase from the remaining 95 games, some success stories were Moo jumping from 2 to 9 and crowman_23 capping off a good week by adding 8 to his total to also reach 9
nobbyiscool and simonoz leapt from 1 to 8 and were joined by Oscarman who went from naught to 8 in 15 games.

Will the leaders keep the pace up this week, or will we see a bolter charge from below?

 

[statsman74]

Disappointing that 'NO SHOWS' have impacted on two of four default results that have basically gifted Division titles

This kind of thing hasn't been a just this year happenstance.

I think we should seriously give thought next year to the following:

1) stripping no shows of all their victories and losses and either counting them as a "bye" for everyone on their schedule or stripping them of all victories and awarding win to everyone on their schedule. I understand the argument from those who would have beaten said player when they were actually live in the comp, but there is a much bigger picture here.

2) stripping no shows of any entrance into the high roller sweepstakes/hot streak/ any other events they remain live for. You should not be allowed to disappear for several weeks to appear in Week 17 to make picks nor should you be rewarded for an early hot streak.

Everyone knows my thoughts on the no shows even when it would work to my advantage. It simply is not right and not fair when there is $$ on the line.

At least the no-show debacle wasnt as bad as last year - scored highly myself relative to most, but it was an odd week for results and the default tips for the no-show actually gave them a score higher than mine. Was very dirty on that. Nearly over it.

 

[statsman74]

Horse has bolted and i will be VERY surprised if AE goes around again next season.

That would be a terrible shame. Its a fantastic comp, and if I had more time I'd do more. My solution to keep it going and make life easier is to remove the elements that take a lot of time relative to the benefit given back.

Might be an easier comp to run if we cut it back to (say) 32 or 48 teams based on history of being in the comp and not going AWOL at any time. That might mean it is harder for new people to get in (and I have a potential solution for that too) but at least you'd have a fixed fixture each year (in terms of structure - so no additional work each year) and far less chance of people going missing as they have a proven history.

As for newbies, if we needed to fill a few spots, you make them pay extra up front, and that extra is returned to them at the end of the year if they dont no-show. If they do, those funds get pooled and get shared between those most affected by that no-show.

 

[peterbuch74]

I've had an idea for the no-shows... it's a little controversial, and would need to be signed off at the start of the season and backed by the board mods...
But any no-shows are banned/red-carded from the NFL board for that week... and subsequent weeks if they continue to no-show.
It's great that they're paid up at the start, but the joy is taken out of it when they give up!

 

[exe ex machina]

Still.....10 years after AE was founded.....no one has asked the 211 IQ guy, "hey GG, how do we solve the no-shows problem?"

 

[peterbuch74]

Hey GG.exe, how do we solve the no-shows problem?

 

[peterbuch74]

Next Duel standings following the completion of week 12 in the NFL

 

[exe ex machina]

Hey GG.exe, how do we solve the no-shows problem?

I'll post the solution either tonight or another night.
It's worth waiting for.

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

It’s ND, based on a lot of luck. I’m somehow 8-4 and around 40th overall. Pure luck. Someone’s a no show it’s just bad luck.

People have paid to join, can’t ban them if they’re no shows. We’re over thinking this

 

[exe ex machina]

We’re over thinking this

You haven't seen "the solution" yet

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

You haven't seen "the solution" yet

Can only imagine from you...actually no I couldn’t imagine even if I tried

 

[exe ex machina]

Can only imagine from you...actually no I couldn’t imagine even if I tried

It's so simple, it's genius. But also it took a lot of brain cells to think of all the problems/arguments about the whole "no-show" dilemma, balance out all the permutations, and Solomon-like wisdom to make a judgment about what is "right".

THE SOLUTION by GG.exe
In the website, the week's fixtures are already pre-selected with a winner....based on whatever method one wants to use -- Vegas favorites, all home teams, whatever. But something sensible (Vegas favorites)....so that if someone is a no-show, they don't get a shit score.

Only the CR selections are pre-selected with winners tho. Because that is the main comp that also feeds Next Duel.

If people are no-shows, they just have to suffer the consequences in all the side-comps -- DZE, 3XKO, HS. Getting strikes, getting eliminated, and not registering a tally on HS.

But purely for the CR/ND comp, all weeks 1 thru to 17 are all pre-selected with winners. When you first join, and go to the site, log in, and go to the ENTER PICKS page, you'll see the games all listed from first to be played to last to be played, and all pre-selected with a winner.

It is therefore up to us to change these picks how we see fit. Move them around how we see fit.

For whatever reason, valid family/work, or invalid just couldn't be bothered, or forgot, at the very least a no-show will get a reasonable score in CR and his score in ND will count towards a W or L.

In one way, this method also MASKS the appearance of a no-show. So it'll always appear as tho everyone was a shower.

Secondly, it greatly reduces the manual load on Woodson/JeffDunne/PB/etc, who always have to chase Woodson or Woodson chase them, to fix scores manually for all the comps and in the website.

Instead, once JeffDunne codes the site so that all weeks are pre-selected with winners based on initial Vegas odds, that populate a few days before TNF, there is no need for any manual adjustments etc.

Thirdly, there are no complex formulas used for determining a score for a no-show.

It's just clean and simple.

The arguments that no-shows shouldn't be given ND wins....well, you could still apply this pre-selected winners method for CR, to ensure they still have a chance in the comp and not become total no-shows, WHILST, giving any no-show a LOSS in ND. Tho people again complain that these people are essentially a bye, so people who have them on their schedule are being advantaged. Again, the solution, the real solution, is to allow no-shows a W or L with their pre-selected no-show score. End of debate. That just has to be iterated to all participants that it's tough **** if they lose to a no-show.

 

[exe ex machina]

And....if there's a complaint from someone that they made changes but the site didn't save them. JD can look at the log and see if they're bullshitting or not and make a manual adjustment if there needs to be one. In case the site does have a bug in it.

The only thing to discuss is what method is used for pre-selections.

Vegas Favorites could hypothetically result in someone getting top scores every week and winning a comp whilst a no-show. Tho that's unlikely, as there are always upsets.

What commish could therefore do there is stipulate that if someone has been a no-show for "x" number of weeks out of the 17, that they are disqualified from winning prizemoney for ND/CR. The thing is, a person who has been awol a long time, no one gives a shit about anyway, they don't DESERVE to win money, have no right to complain they ought to receive money. It's about protecting the people who are always logging in and putting an effort in. So they will win all the prizemoney.

Just at the very least, during a whole NFL season, we are all going to have a week or two or three where we were a no-show....family reasons, work reasons, just forgot....but we did it only a few times all year. So that's ok. Also, we don't want early no-shows to SUFFER in CR ladder and completely give up....so a method like Vegas Favorites is legit, keeps them getting a good score, but not a high score, and provide stiff competition in ND to whomever faces them....and let's be honest here, if you put your picks in and got a shit score you don't really deserve to be awarded a win against a no-show who got an average score. You were so bad at picking, got such a low score, it's tough ****, you would've lost to a majority of people had you a different opponent that week.

NoShows for %50 of the season could be the line where they are disqualified from winning prizemoney. No right to complain really missing so much. No one tho will miss more than 3 or 4 weeks tops imo if they are mostly diligent about AE.

 

[Broken]

It’s ND, based on a lot of luck. I’m somehow 8-4 and around 40th overall. Pure luck. Someone’s a no show it’s just bad luck.

People have paid to join, can’t ban them if they’re no shows. We’re over thinking this

You're not wrong. Look at the Urlacher division, the best overall ranking is #38 by the player in 3rd place. Then you look at the Esiason division and the worst overall ranking is #26, the last place in that division is #14 overall!
There's a lot of quirks in this competition beyond no shows.

 

[exe ex machina]

Actually i think all HOME teams is the easiest method (for JD too). No need to wait for odds etc. JD can have the whole 17 weeks pre-selected before people even join. Plus, by my calculations, every week, you always get 8 home winners to 11 max. Mostly it's 9-7, 8-8, type stuff. The odd week you get 5 home winners or 11 home winners. But for like 13 of the 17 weeks of the NFL, there are about 8 or 9 home winners.

BUT....WHO those home winners are is never a certainty, as we see for ourselves each week, when home favorites lose.

But yeah.....for pre-selections method....having all 16 home teams selected....a no-show should get an average score, middle of the field. Keeps them interested early in the year if they no-show for a couple times, they wont quit. But they can't complain about DZE, HRS, 3XKO and HS if they no show. You heckin'g no-showed!

 

[exe ex machina]

And if you can't beat an "average" score in ND, then you don't really deserve a win simply because you bothered to make your picks. You sucked at picking! Tough shit. You couldn't beat an "average" no-show pre-selected score. No one can complain about someone getting multiple guaranteed ND bye wins either. People don't deserve a ND win simply for that really. It's not intrinsically fair in terms of the complex nature of a H2H type based competition....be it fantasy football or NFL picks. If you have a shit fantasy team and still lost to someone who forgot to change his starters around, but has a much better roster than you, then oh well, tough shit, get a better roster for yourself. Same applies in terms of making picks. If you suck at it that you lose to an "average" score, then that's your own damn fault for not being better at picking winners. And really, AE is all about who is the BEST at picking winners in all the various comps.

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

Can someone summarise GG’s War and Peace volumes I, II and III in succinct couple of lines?

 

[exe ex machina]

Can someone summarise GG’s War and Peace volumes I, II and III in succinct couple of lines?

Weeks 1 thru to 17 are already pre-selected with all HOME winners.
If a no-show happens, they'll still get an average score to keep them interested in the comp.
A no-show score still counts towards a W or L in Next Duel. Because if you can't beat an "average" score then you don't deserve a W simply for bothering.
All side-comps like HRS, DZE, 3XKO, HS...there are no pre-selections, so if you no-show, bad luck in those side comps.
This method also greatly reduces the load on all the managers of the comps, no need to chase each other around trying to manually adjust no-show scores and results, and having complex formulas for giving a no-show a score.

 

[exe ex machina]

and...

if you no-show for say %50 of the season, you are disqualified from winning any prizemoney in the unlikely event you do well in CR or ND.

 

[Rack Watts]

It’s ND, based on a lot of luck. I’m somehow 8-4 and around 40th overall. Pure luck. Someone’s a no show it’s just bad luck.

People have paid to join, can’t ban them if they’re no shows. We’re over thinking this

Haha meanwhile I lead the division in points and am eliminated already
You're right. A no show is just bad luck, there's nothing to be done. Not a bid deal. In order to win, you have to be good, and lucky.

 

[AmericanCrow]

I disagree strongly that no shows are not a big deal.

They directly impact a path to the playoffs in ND, which last time I checked, has several payouts.

"Bad luck" of my opponent getting a walkover should not prevent me from a fair chance to earn a spot. (Using me as a general example)

In the absence of an emergency, etc...a no show should be penalized and penalized harshly.

I could give a crap they paid money into AE comps, so did everyone else. Affording them better protection than a guy trying to earn a bid to ND playoffs is ridiculous in my opinion