Competitions AFC Board Draft Game 2021/22 Main Competition Thread

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TubbsFarquhar

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Interesting to see the criticisms of drafting young players/rookies early.

I tend to look at point earning potential when making these decisions. JHF for example:

- is he best 22 and a chance to play every game if fit? Yes
- if he plays 22 games, is he a chance to make the Best 22 under 22? Definitely
- if he plays 22 games, is he a chance to make NM's B & F top 10? Maybe

The decision then becomes whether JHF is likely to earn more points than an older player who isn't playing for a flag contender and unlikely to be in the top 10 players at his club?

I think it's a calculated risk but one worth taking for the better players aged under 22.
I think it's more of the fact he hasn't played a game yet. Even if Serong went a tad early, at least he's established himself in the AFL and already has a top 5 B&F finish.
 
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Kenny Rogers Picks

"The Gamblers"

8) adelaidecrows - Patrick Cripps (Carlton) - will his body allow him to return to his best?

10) Pilchard_Adams - Joe Daniher (Essendon) - kicking boot on or off?

16) Geoffa32 - Rory Laird (Adelaide) - will he progress from an elite accumulator to an elite midfielder?

17) Golumless - Jarryd Lyons (Brisbane) - is he a genuine A Grade midfielder in his own right or a quality support act?

30) Scorpus - Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong) - best days behind him or still got some juice?

37) AdelaideFan14 - Bailey Smith (Western Bulldogs) - off field going to stifle his development?

47) I Lost My Keays - Travis Boak (Port Adelaide) - when does the cliff arrive?

51) Danger Zone - Dayne Zorko (Brisbane) - see Boak

52) Geoffa32 - Charlie Curnow (Carlton) - will his body hold up? What will his form be like after a two year lay-off?

56) Golumless - Reilly O'Brien (Adelaide) - will he remain our No 1 ruckman?

63) Pilchard_Adams - Jeremy McGovern (West Coast) - will he play 20+ games?

66) Scorpus - Charlie Dixon (Port Adelaide) - how long will "at least he provides a contest" cut it for Port's No 1 key forward?

78) Drugs Are Bad Mackay? - Jarrod Witts (Gold Coast) - Coming off ACL

80) adelaidecrows - Tom Doedee (Adelaide) - has anyone heard anything more about this mysterious ankle injury? Silence is deafening

87) Danger Zone - Lance Franklin (Sydney) - how will his "calf" hold up?

91) WeeBlake - Peter Ladhams (Sydney) - will he suck as much at Sydney as he did at Port? Swans have a pretty good track record at turning another team's bog average ruckman into a quality contributor to be fair

99) Pilchard_Adams - Toby Greene (GWS) - how long after he returns will he get suspended again?

103) Drugs Are Bad Mackay? - James Sicily (Hawthorn) - will his injury troubles continue?

113) 1990crow - Scott Lycett (Port Adelaide) - surely the Port selectors will eventually realise that he stinks

135) Pilchard_Adams - Jesse Hogan (GWS) - has been unreliable in every facet of the game for his whole career

137) adelaidecrows - Matt Rowell (Gold Coast) - have injuries stalled his career before it even really started?

139) Drugs Are Bad Mackay? - Riley Thilthorpe (Adelaide) - 2nd year blues or generational talent?

145) AdelaideFan14 - Taylor Walker (Adelaide) - where will he be mentally this season?

159) Danger Zone - David Mundy (Fremantle) - one year too many? As we've been asking for the last 5 years

162) WeeBlake - Harry Schoenberg (Adelaide) - will Adelaide stupidly punt him from our starting midfield to accommodate Sloane, Laird, Keays, Crouch?

165) Geoffa32 - Jason Horne-Francis (North Melbourne) - can the Great White Hope cope with the expectation?

174) Scorpus - Tom Jonas (Port Adelaide) - can he keep the wolves at bay?

175) Drugs Are Bad Mackay? - Jade Gresham (St Kilda) - snapped Achilles come back like brand new, right?

176) 1990crow - Darcy Fogarty (Adelaide) - this pick is in Darren Burgess' hands.
 

Jcpdragonx

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Best picks from 200-400 for mine

205) Donkey Magoo Mago - Justin McInerney (Sydney) - Should make U22 AA and play 22 games
235) WeeBlake - Lachie Ash (GWS) - Another one where I'd be shocked if he didnt make the U22 AA
268) Geoffa32 - Alex Neal-Bullen (Melbourne) - Solid role player, good chance to win a flag and another good BnF finish
284) 1990crow - Isaac Smith (Geelong) - Despite being old he looked great all year, think he should finish high in the BnF.
286) hendo8888 - Jack Bowes (Gold Coast) - Was about to take Bowes. Moving into his natural role as a mid now.
310) Danger Zone - George Hewett (Carlton) - Solid workman inside mid who wins a lot of contested ball, Horse done Tom Mitchell'd and Aliir'd him not playing him in position.
345) Geoffa32 - Jordan De Goey (Collingwood) - Worth the risk at this pick, expect him to get a minor suspension for the fight but who knows.
369) Mego Red - Brayden Fiorini (Gold Coast) - Had a strong finish to the year and finished in the best 22.
377) Golumless - Finlay Macrae (Collingwood) - I think he breaks out but can't be sure. Grown taller and looks bigger and fitter. Pies board see him as one of the stand outs in early Dec.
 
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Jcpdragonx

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Roast of the top 200. Poor durability = roasted

7) Scorpus - Tom Hawkins (Geelong) - He's the best KPF in the league but he'll be 34 and the cliff could be any day. Wouldnt use pick 7 on a pensioner.
8) adelaidecrows - Patrick Cripps (Carlton) - Look like he got rigor mortis. Not in my top 200, injuries are building and he sucks now.
10) Pilchard_Adams - Joe Daniher (Essendon) - Poor injury history although came good. Saw nothing to suggest he can break into the AA team.
14) Danger in Texas - Dustin Martin (Richmond) - Richmond's list sucks and hes too up and down in H&A season to be taken at 14.
25) Donkey Magoo - Jeremy Cameron (Geelong) - Hamstrings galor and hasnt been good since 2019. Too busy streaming fortnite.
43) Scorpus - Taylor Adams (Collingwood) - Has played over 20 games once in 10 years
52) Geoffa32 - Charlie Curnow (Carlton) - Not durable enough for pick 52
118) Pilchard_Adams - Matt Crouch (Adelaide) - Dodgy groins, would like to know if theyre playing round 1 for a pick this early
176) 1990crow - Darcy Fogarty (Adelaide) - Capable but speculative, cant make U22 AA team and injury history.
189) Mego Red - Luke Shuey (West Coast) - No hamstrings left on the bone



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Geoffa32

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Interesting to see the criticisms of drafting young players/rookies early.

I tend to look at point earning potential when making these decisions. JHF for example:

- is he best 22 and a chance to play every game if fit? Yes
- if he plays 22 games, is he a chance to make the Best 22 under 22? Definitely
- if he plays 22 games, is he a chance to make NM's B & F top 10? Maybe

The decision then becomes whether JHF is likely to earn more points than an older player who isn't playing for a flag contender and unlikely to be in the top 10 players at his club?

I think it's a calculated risk but one worth taking for the better players aged under 22.
That is the criteria I looked at in picking him so early.




Would not have picked JUH/Tilthorpe at the same stage last year.

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Golumless

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What's fascinating about these comments is the one player I was genuinely dumbfounded to see drafted where he was hasn't been mentioned yet in Chayce Jones at 188. I respect the gamble, especially if you rate the lad highly (and I do as well) but he's only had half a season of solid football in the role, and how limited the payoff is as he's not going to be an AFL player rating darling in 2022, as much as he is U22 eligible. Felt a 300-500 pick range to me.
 

Scorpus

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What's fascinating about these comments is the one player I was genuinely dumbfounded to see drafted where he was hasn't been mentioned yet in Chayce Jones at 188. I respect the gamble, especially if you rate the lad highly (and I do as well) but he's only had half a season of solid football in the role, and how limited the payoff is as he's not going to be an AFL player rating darling in 2022, as much as he is U22 eligible. Felt a 300-500 pick range to me.
Was surprised to see him taken before Brodie Smith who I got at 210
 

Scorpus

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Realistically, every crow went earlier than they should have

Excluding my own players I can make a case for Ben Keays, Lachie Sholl and Luke Brown being accurately ranked. A couple of Crows players shouldn't have been drafted at all
 

Golumless

A bigger deal out west.
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Realistically, every crow went earlier than they should have

If you're trying to make the best team possible, sure. If you're trying to maximise the amount of points in this game, I reckon the vast majority are on the money for their value, seeing a lot of crows (14/37) got picked up after the 22nd round which shows a team with a rather unstable best 22.
 

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Scorpus

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Since everyone is doing these.

People That Struck Gold Due to Inept Drafting of People Immediately Before Them in the Draft Order

158) Danger in Texas - Ed Langdon (Melbourne)

Premiership midfielder and best 22 placement taken after pick 150 is very good value. Annoyed he went here.

204) TubbsFarquhar - Jack Sinclair (St Kilda)

The pick of someone that does research, highly rated at St Kilda and one of those anonymous achievers. Also St Kilda's list sucks so it's easy to place in the B&F

222) Drugs Are Bad Mackay? - Brody Mihocek (Collingwood)

Some of the tall forwards taken before this guy include Darcy Fogarty, Callum Coleman-Jones, Mitch Lewis, Daniel McStay, and Peter Wright. That's just nuts to me, Mihocek is a consistently decent player and the number 1 forward target at Collingwood.

231) Danger Zone - Wil Powell (Gold Coast)

Gold Coast have like 4 good players and this guy is one of them. Young, had a breakout season and rated in the B&F very nicely.

288) AdelaideFan14 - James Rowbottom (Sydney)

Is basically a starting rotation midfielder at Sydney, or will be very soon with Josh Kennedy's body about to pack in. Every bit as worthy of a selection as Schoenberg who went over 100 picks earlier

321) Crow_68 - Tom Powell (North Melbourne)

Looked AFL quality from his first game basically, if he gets over his injury he'll be far better than an 18th round player and easily better than many other players taken this round

340) Geoffa32 - Griffin Logue (Fremantle)

I was filthy when he was taken, dwindling best 22 supplies in the 19th round and this guy is very much that at Fremantle, a much better defender than some of the guys taken before him.

357) Crow_68 - Sam Petrevski-Seton (West Coast)

Can't see him not being best 22 at West Coast, done very well to get him here and another player I wanted in this range of the draft. Should be more highly rated and used properly at West Coast vs Carlton

358) hendo8888 - Tom Atkins (Geelong)

If you're taking a clear best 22 player in the back half of round 20 you're doing very well. I guess people didn't research Geelong's list

365) 1990crow - Lachlan Sholl (Adelaide)

Taken after Brayden Cook, Josh Rachele, and Shane McAdam. Can't see why he slipped so far, had a very strong start of 2021 and should be more of a best 22 lock than many other Crows

445) TubbsFarquhar - Trent McKenzie (Port Adelaide)

I mean we all think Port sucks but have you seen their defensive stocks? There's a reason McKenzie gets games, and he was picked after Josh Worrell and several players that have never even played a game!

578) I Lost My Keays - Lachie Murphy (Adelaide)

Good job us for putting him in the raffle because I reckon he's more likely to score more points than about 100 players taken before him including at least 5 Crows players
 
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Scorpus

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And now for the shitty picks

People That Drafted Shit Players Far Too Early

91) WeeBlake - Peter Ladhams (Sydney)

I swear the only reason this guy is rated is because Dwayne Russell thinks Port Adelaide are the best team ever and talks up every single Port player. Top 100? Ooooooooooof

133) Donkey Magoo - Darcy Byrne-Jones (Port Adelaide)

This guy is the worst All Australian selection of all time, if the selectors actually watch AFL next year (tall order, I know) there is zero chance he will come close to nomination. Not a top 150 player in the AFL and only Ken Hinkley would think so (maybe will get some B&F points then I guess)

146) Jcpdragonx - Aaron Hall (North Melbourne)

He's 31 and played one or two good seasons ever in his entire career. Asking him to back it up is a seriously tough ask, nowhere near consistent enough to be picked in the top 250 players.

207) Pilchard_Adams - Lachie Plowman (Carlton)

Only Carlton rate him. No one else that's ever watched football would ever rate him. I can only assume this was a pick for positional quota reasons

275) Danger in Texas - Brennan Cox (Fremantle)

Played his good game against the Crows about 4 years ago, with the defensive depth at Fremantle now surely they don't play him. Like Plowman I can only assume this was a positional quota pick

304) Geoffa32 - Gary Rohan (Geelong)

I know he probably will score okay at this position in the draft but... duck me he is awful. Will anyone tell Chris Scott this guy is legitimately the worst finals player to ever play AFL? If that happens as it should, he won't play another game. Couldn't live with myself if he was on my team

331) Scorpus - Rhys Stanley (Geelong)

Whichever idiot drafted this spud inside the top 450 players surely only did it for positional requirements because he SUCKS

371) I Lost My Keays - Esava Ratugolea (Geelong)

The Billy Frampton of Geelong, can't ruck, can't play forward, can't play any position. Don't think he'll get games now they have Ceglar.

556) Geoffa32 - Lewis Taylor (Sydney)

Can't complain too much about picks beyond 500 but he's garbage and won't play AFL again unless Sydney are in dire straights. Taylor over Murphy? Ouch, poor Lachie.

Players I Took In Previous Years That Burned Me, I Vowed Not to Draft, and I Wish the Worst

63) Pilchard_Adams - Jeremy McGovern (West Coast)
169) Donkey Magoo - Rory Lobb (Fremantle)
192) Donkey Magoo - Stephen Coniglio (GWS)
206) I Lost My Keays - Dylan Shiel (Essendon)
 
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TubbsFarquhar

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I wouldn't classify any pick after round 28 to be shit, but I'm amazed Lewis Taylor is still on an AFL list.
 

Geoffa32

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Excluding my own players I can make a case for Ben Keays, Lachie Sholl and Luke Brown being accurately ranked. A couple of Crows players shouldn't have been drafted at all
I wanted Scholl and was going to pick him in the set of picks I head after you picked him.

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Geoffa32

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I wouldn't classify any pick after round 28 to be sh*t, but I'm amazed Lewis Taylor is still on an AFL list.
I was surprised too.

He has talent, but fragile. A bit like Andy Otten.


Bonus player. I didn't do much research past creating a pool beyond my pick 30.




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Geoffa32

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Ahum. I have Lachlan Sholl thank you very much.
You bustard, whoever it was, I was going to pick him around that spot.

I remember seeing him selected and regret not picking him beforehand.




I reckon he will really take off this year


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Geoffa32

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Picking Rohan was a bit of a joke
But he will play 22 games, bar unjury.

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adelaidecrows

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Excluding my own players I can make a case for Ben Keays, Lachie Sholl and Luke Brown being accurately ranked. A couple of Crows players shouldn't have been drafted at all
After Chayce Jones had a strong year I do think where I drafted him was about right. Late pick in the 100s. Butts is another in terms of specific Key defenders and where they rank and same with doedee.

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