Afl - 2010

[FFB1]

FWIW i reckon Adelaide (whilst being a chance) are under the odds @ 8/1. They haven't performed well in finals & of the top 4 teams only beat coll in 1st game (lost twice to coll as well), got belted by WBD & StK (twice) belted by geel at home....

Vince is a very good player, i reckon shop around a bit more & try to get about 70-80/1 then i think its decent value.

.

Adelaide play Freo and Melbourne in the first three weeks?

If you've got a Betfair Account load up on them for the flag and Vince for the Brownlow, hope they smash both of them and Vince stars and trade some back when both their odds come in.

 

[jonesy86]

Obviously a long shot, but the odds were too good not to have a nibble.

I've got $5 on Ben Reid to win the Rising Star @ $126

Reid was a top 10 draft pick and spent last season transforming into a defender. Towards the end of last season he was regularly picking up 20+ possesions at CHB and setting up attacking plays in the VFL.

So far in the intra-club games he has been racking up the kicks at CHB being the go-to player to bring the ball out of defense with his raking left boot.

I only got on him now because if he is given a good run in the NAB cup his odds will be trimmed to at least $51 possibly lower if he can reproduce form from the VFL season late last year.

 

[The Big Woofer]

Adelaide play Freo and Melbourne in the first three weeks?

If you've got a Betfair Account load up on them for the flag and Vince for the Brownlow, hope they smash both of them and Vince stars and trade some back when both their odds come in.

That freo game in round 1 is no gimme, adl have a few guys underdone or with niggling injuries & freo look like they may have a full list to choose from.....one would expect an Adl win but if guys like Bock & Van Berlo don't play it could go the other way.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Adelaide - Premiers - $9.00

Ok. The crows are now out to 11.00 on sportsbet. Does anyone think there is an opportunity to get them at even juicier odds before the season starts, or ulikely to be a change due to being knocked out of the NAB cup?

 

[Dr Awkward]

Im considering these bets but will probably wait to closer to the season starts to put them on (ie. after nab cup). Has anyone else done any futures betting yet this year, or considering doing bets on the premiers/rising star/brownlow/coleman.... Feel free to post your thoughts/tips here. Here are mine:

Adelaide - Premiers - $9.00
Carlton - MISS 8 - $2.00
Sydney - MAKE 8 - $3.00
West Coast - MAKE 8 - $3.50
Bernie Vince - Brownlow - $51/$17.50

odds from sportsbet.com.au

Thoughts???

You need to get on Betfair, those odds are not very good.

Adelaide have had a shocking pre-season they are unders for the flag and even though I really rated them last year I think they may only finish between 10th and 6th.

West Coast to make the 8 should be about $7 IMO.

Carlton might stuggle this year also.

i think St Kilda will win premiership. Or at least finish on top after home and away.

 

[The Big Woofer]

Ok. The crows are now out to 11.00 on sportsbet. Does anyone think there is an opportunity to get them at even juicier odds before the season starts, or ulikely to be a change due to being knocked out of the NAB cup?

i'd be careful about getting on Adl early, they have a lot of injury concerns right now:

Knights is gone for 6-8, Van Berlo has a serious injury, Bock still has problems & is underdone, Porplyzia has had an interupted preseason, Otten is out for the season i really don't think these guys have had the ideal prep, their odds certainly can't come in before round 1 & that game vs freo will be tough for Adl.

 

[Jammer]

The Hawks at $9.00 for the flag for me......
I know it was a pre season game v Richmond but they were still up by 100
at 3/4 time with a fair bit of cream to come back into that side....
Think they will trade a lot shorter during the season.

 

[Subaru Impreza]

West Coast $3 to Make Top 8
Fremantle $5 to Make Top 8


confident 1 of those 2, if not , both will make top 8 this season.

 

[TheNextBigThing]

West Coast $3 to Make Top 8
Fremantle $5 to Make Top 8


confident 1 of those 2, if not , both will make top 8 this season.

Shop around, you can get better than $3 for West Coast to make the 8 surely.

 

[presidentofauz]

alot of you might remember brjafi?

well im him, changed the name because really what name is brjafi?

im back and so is my site, get my h2h -- lines/margin bets for afl this year and nba and tennis......www.puntersweb.com

 

[Jan Juc]

In trying to put together a couple of season-long multi's, I've had a brief look at the AFL Top 8 market (will quote TAB Sportsbet odds for no reason other than ease):

* there are eight teams under $2.00, leaving of course eight teams over $2.00.
* the market is at 108.8% which for them isn't the worst they could do.
* eighth in line of betting is Carlton at $1.80.

Now, if you're like me and don't rate Carlton at all, and given the other "top 7" teams are identified/priced there or thereabouts, surely the next bracket of teams provide great value to take Carlton's (what I feel is no chance) spot in the eight.

ESS - $3.00
SYD - $3.00
WCE - $3.50
PA - $3.50
KANG - $4.50
RICH - $5.50
FREM - $6.00
MELB - $6.50

Given that you can back Carlton to make it at $1.80, or back them to miss it at $1.90 (not overly attractive), surely the value lies somewhere in the bolded?

Thoughts...

 

[AhSteveSteve27]

The Swans will make the 8 IMO Jan Juc, prefer them over the other three.

Round 1 prices are up on sportsbet.

These caught my eye:
Carlton 1.63 to beat the Tigers
Pies 2.15 to beat the Dogs
Swans 2.75 to beat the Saints
Dockers 2.00 to beat Crows

 

[GoodesStuff]

The Swans will make the 8 IMO Jan Juc, prefer them over the other three.

Round 1 prices are up on sportsbet.

These caught my eye:
Carlton 1.63 to beat the Tigers
The blues should win, but I would avoid and sit and watch how they go without Fev and Judd
Pies 2.15 to beat the Dogs
I think the pies fans will make this one closer as they usually do by throwing their money on Collingwood, and think that the doggies will be good value
Swans 2.75 to beat the Saints
I remember taking the 6 goal line last year when we were at home to the Saints last year- EASY MONEY. I will probably like them with anything more than a 2 goal head start this time though
Dockers 2.00 to beat Crows
I would have thought the Crows would get the 4 points here, but am now not so sure after a few injuries. Wouldnt be taking Freo though

My thoughts bolded

 

[mattys123]

Round 1 prices are up on sportsbet.

These caught my eye:
Carlton 1.63 to beat the Tigers
Pies 2.15 to beat the Dogs
Swans 2.75 to beat the Saints
Dockers 2.00 to beat Crows

Lol, I'm almost the exact opposite, these games caught my eye;

Geelong (1.31) vs Essendon (3.35), Love the cats, no chance of losing this.
Brisbane (1.4) vs West Coast (2.90) Lions will win, if I can get 1.40 closer to game time I'd take it.
Port Adelaide (1.53) vs North Melbourne (2.45), I'll make some money off port early on in the year, they won't lose this one at home.

Games I won't touch;

Collingwood vs Bulldogs; This will be a nailbiter, like the only real game between them last year. Dogs pre season form has been good, but sides coming of NAB Cup GF don't have great records. Would take the pies at the line if you made me bet.

Fremantle vs ANYONE; Not betting on a FREO game all year, they will win when least expected, and lose when most expected.

Melbourne vs Hawthorn; Hawks too short (1.20), although both teams are shot with injuries.

My bets will be on the first 4 games I assessed. (this may change due to injuries or other factors before round 1).

 

[GoodesStuff]

Lol, I'm almost the exact opposite, these games caught my eye;

Geelong (1.31) vs Essendon (3.35), Love the cats, no chance of losing this.
Brisbane (1.4) vs West Coast (2.90) Lions will win, if I can get 1.40 closer to game time I'd take it.
Port Adelaide (1.53) vs North Melbourne (2.45), I'll make some money off port early on in the year, they won't lose this one at home.

Games I won't touch;

Collingwood vs Bulldogs; This will be a nailbiter, like the only real game between them last year. Dogs pre season form has been good, but sides coming of NAB Cup GF don't have great records. Would take the pies at the line if you made me bet.

Fremantle vs ANYONE; Not betting on a FREO game all year, they will win when least expected, and lose when most expected.

Melbourne vs Hawthorn; Hawks too short (1.20), although both teams are shot with injuries.

My bets will be on the first 4 games I assessed. (this may change due to injuries or other factors before round 1).

I agree with the Cats, will be my last man standing tip for sure. The lions SHOULD win but I am tipping this to be a lot closer than a lot would expect. I only really see one real upset and that could be the Roos over Port- beat them twice last year and have a decent record over at AAMI.

As Ive already said I do like the doggies here, and think they can show that they are a force in 2010 with a decent win over the pies. The Freo game, yehhh may be a little hard to predict. I also agree with you with the Hawks.

 

[AhSteveSteve27]

I agree with the Cats and Lions especially. The four games I mentioned I just thought on first glance they all looked a little long. I especially rate the Pies and Swans to keep it close at least, if not pull off upset wins first up.

 

[Dr Awkward]

Multi Geelong into Brisbane looks tempting.

 

[COOL-A-ROO]

Yeah, agree that Geelong and Brisbane look like the two round 1 locks

 

[mattys123]

Yeah, agree that Geelong and Brisbane look like the two round 1 locks

Well you can add Hawthorn to that too, although they are too short to back outright.

 

[WCE fanatic]

I'd be very careful backing Brisbane in round 1. Eagles have caused some boilovers in Brisbane in the past and will have a pretty decent team on the park with only a couple of players underdone (Cox, Kerr, maybe Pridis). I wouldn't be betting on this game, after all Brisbane have hardly set the world on fire during pre season.

 

[GoodesStuff]

I'd be very careful backing Brisbane in round 1. Eagles have caused some boilovers in Brisbane in the past and will have a pretty decent team on the park with only a couple of players underdone (Cox, Kerr, maybe Pridis). I wouldn't be betting on this game, after all Brisbane have hardly set the world on fire during pre season.

As I have already said, this has the potential to be a lot closer than everyone would think and Brisbane have been overrated this year with after who they picked up in the draft, and their most prized recruit is dealing with off-field issues, AGAIN

 

[AhSteveSteve27]

Who has set the world on fire exactly? They haven't done that badly, lost narrowly to the Dogs in the wet and their last game was cancelled. Not a great position to judge, Geelong lost to the Roos round 1, I guess theyre in the same boat. The only thing in WC's favour is that they'll be fresh so travel shouldn't be such a factor. Lions will win comfortably. Don't rate the Eagles much at all.

 

[mike262]

As I have already said, this has the potential to be a lot closer than everyone would think and Brisbane have been overrated this year with after who they picked up in the draft, and their most prized recruit is dealing with off-field issues, AGAIN

Huh? is this referring to Rich, what happened? his in my DT!

 

[mike262]

Who has set the world on fire exactly? They haven't done that badly, lost narrowly to the Dogs in the wet and their last game was cancelled. Not a great position to judge, Geelong lost to the Roos round 1, I guess theyre in the same boat. The only thing in WC's favour is that they'll be fresh so travel shouldn't be such a factor. Lions will win comfortably. Don't rate the Eagles much at all.

Eagles should be one of the teams fighting for top 8 position this year along side essendon.

.................................................Hopefully.

 

[AndSmithMustScore]

Early bets for me are

Swans to make the 8
Ryan Griffen/Bryce Gibbs brownlow
Barry Hall coleman