AFL 2014 ROUND 4

[Keystone agony]

I have loaded up on the overs for montagna 109.5 supercoach. We have no taggers and our midfield sucks. He will run riot

You obviousily dont know who Kerridge is mate.

However dont think he will be going to Montagna, however always a possibility.

 

[GROTTO]

I was reading an article on the Herald Sun, about the possibility of Melbourne receiving the top 3 draft picks this year if they happen to finish 0-22.

Given the state that their Club is in, if there was ever the opportunity to tank a season and rebuild their club surely this would be it. Bottom line for a punter, I could not see a HH game this season that I am confident of them wanting to win (admittedly I dont think they could win in any case).

http://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/af...draft-selections/story-fndv8pdq-1226879331080

 

[Keystone agony]

Six day break thing still gets a run huh

Is there enough evidence to suggest that an extra 2 day break doesnt help?

 

[GROTTO]

No certainly not at the moment.

I will come across as a bias supporter but anyone that reads my post knows exactly the opposite.

Would you agree thought that an inherent bias can run both ways? That is you overestimate or underestimate your team.

I am 1-2 for the Crows this year and I am still not sure if they can win on Sunday (the only game that I am not confident on in predicting).

 

[Keystone agony]

Would you agree thought that an inherent bias can run both ways? That is you overestimate or underestimate your team.

I am 1-2 for the Crows this year and I am still not sure if they can win on Sunday (the only game that I am not confident on in predicting).

Thats the same for me this week though. Crows have been in the hunt each week.

I went Kangaroos over the dons in week one, after that ive got them right.

 

[GROTTO]

Is there enough evidence to suggest that an extra 2 day break doesnt help?

I wouldnt say it does just off the top of my head. But you have to remember the Dons do get a full 7 day break, if you are concerned about it.

Selwood from Geelong was interviewed recently on 360 saying it is harder for players to come up after just a 6 day break, but that doenst mean though that a team would lose a game because of it.

 

[Keystone agony]

I think there will be some good games to bet on for under points for this round as a total.

Melb vs Carl
Stk vs Adel
Syd vs North

 

[Lensen]

Is there enough evidence to suggest that an extra 2 day break doesnt help?

6 day vs 7-10 day since 2010. 122-120-1 SU, 131-111-1 ATS.

this isn't my stat, but it's accurate

 

[Lensen]

I wouldnt say it does just off the top of my head.

you don't have to answer every question posted in this thread. if you don't know you don't have to answer. when the question is about evidence "off the top of your head" is not what anyone is looking for

 

[banana_bus]

Ask Deledio about that last year. I was impressed and surprised with how well Cotch went last week with Wallis on him. Shows he may be back to his best i think Macaffer is slightly a better tagger though right now.

Cotch and Deledio are completely different players.

 

[Keystone agony]

Cotch and Deledio are completely different players.

You missed the point

Deledio was tagged most of last year, not Cotchin

 

[banana_bus]

You missed the point

Deledio was tagged most of last year, not Cotchin

Aha. Yeah I guess I did. Tags were split about 50/50 between the 2 of them though, if not Cotchin had the majority.

 

[Rise_up_Stiffy]

You obviousily dont know who Kerridge is mate.

However dont think he will be going to Montagna, however always a possibility.

I know that he isn't capable of tagging out montagna, and that his poke in the eye was so bad that he might not get up for this week.

 

[Keystone agony]

Aha. Yeah I guess I did. Tags were split about 50/50 between the 2 of them though, if not Cotchin had the majority.

From rounds 5-20 last year he got tagged every week except when he went head 2 head with Abltt vs GC a renowned team for not tagging.

 

[Keystone agony]

I know that he isn't capable of tagging out montagna, and that his poke in the eye was so bad that he might not get up for this week.

I feel teams dont tag Montagna because his 30 possession games still dont have much of an little influence on the game. Lacks kicking penetration, speed and gets alot of cheap stuff in the back half of the field.

Armiatage and Hayes seem to be copping it so far.

Kerridge has kept both Boak and Jack to 19 possessions each this year though, not bad by any stretch

 

[chrisdon16]

Carlton
Port
Geelong
Hawthorn

All straight win @ $2.07

 

[Aed0s]

Update: it's being reported that Glass will also miss West Coasts match against Geelong.

Geelong into 1.25 H2H now

 

[GROTTO]

Statistically speaking, the disadvantage of the short break is a football myth.

Record for 5 & 6-day breaks since 2000, where less than opponent's:

Dy Op   P   W   L  D  Win%
--------------------------
5  6   9   6   3  -  66.6
5  7   5   2   3  -  40.0
5  8   1   -   1  -    -
5  9   1   -   1  -    -
6  7 542 262 271  9  49.2
6  8 147  69  77  1  47.3
6  9  13   8   5  -  61.5
6 10   6   2   4  -  33.3
6 12   4   1   3  -  25.0
6 13   3   3   -  - 100.0
6 14   5   3   2  -  60.0
6 15   2   1   1  -  50.0
--------------------------
      738 357 371 10  49.1

Longer breaks:

Dy Op   P   W   L  D  Win%
--------------------------
7  8 438 218 214  6  50.5
7  9  89  48  40  1  54.5
7 10   4   3   1  -  75.0
7 11   2   1   1  -  50.0
7 12   8   2   6  -  25.0
7 13  10   3   7  -  30.0
7 14  13   7   6  -  53.8
7 15  14   5   9  -  35.7
8 9   83  41  41  1  50.0
8 10  11   6   5  -  54.5
8 11   2   1   1  -  50.0
8 13   4   2   2  -  50.0
8 14   7   4   3  -  57.1
8 15  10   5   5  -  50.0
8 16   3   1   2  -  33.3
9 10  11   7   4  -  63.6
9 11   1   -   1  -    -
9 14   2   2   -  - 100.0
9 15   2   2   -  - 100.0
9 16   1   -   1  -    -
10 11   1   -   1  -    -
11 12   3   -   3  -    -
11 13   1   1   -  - 100.0
12 13   5   2   3  -  40.0
12 14   5   4   1  -  80.0
13 14  12   6   6  -  50.0
13 15   3   1   2  -  33.3
14 15  13   6   7  -  46.2
14 16   3   3   -  - 100.0
15 16   5   3   2  -  60.0
--------------------------
      766 384 374  8  51.7

Perhaps the evenness of results is due to awareness and modified preparation off a shorter break, but I'd be more inclined to believe that most losing teams simply weren't good enough on the day.

Keystone agony I thought you may find this interesting its an analysis of the short day break - fact or myth.

Just note its from 2000 to 2012 only, but as I mentioned before I would be surprised if there was a deviation from this, just from my own personal observations about this issue.

If I am not mistaken the AFL since the introduction of the floating fixture in the final round has ensured that the minor premier has a guaranteed 7 day break between games. But that has more to do with rewarding the top team in its management of players.

 

[GROTTO]

Update: it's being reported that Glass will also miss West Coasts match against Geelong.

Geelong into 1.25 H2H now

Im shattered.

 

[chrisdon16]

Will the extra two days rest help Freo?

 

[Nothing]

Will the extra two days rest help Freo?

Nah but the 6 day break will hurt Essendon.

 

[GROTTO]

Noticed this week so far that there has been no generous promotions for losing bets with the bookies.

 

[banana_bus]

Will the extra two days rest help Freo?

Nah but the 6 day break will hurt Essendon.

I cant tell if you guys are serious or are taking the piss?

 

[GROTTO]

I cant tell if you guys are serious or are taking the piss?

LOL. One of the responses could be frightening.

 

[Parko31]

Brisbane +54 line enough?