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AFL 2014 ROUND 4

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banana_bus said:
Anybody got a reasonable line market for the Bombers?

Centrebet has the line @+6.5 and +24.5 @1.36.

Wouldnt mind a few more points.
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Sportsbet line is +4.5 at $1.92 and has +24.5 at $1.29

It depends what you intend doing, CB has a promotion of 4 legs or more paying 25% bonus compared to SB.
 

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banana_bus said:
Thats not bad, might hit up this multi;

Bombers +24.5 @1.36
Geelong @1.36
Carlton @1.14
*Insert losing 4th leg here*

Get 25% :)
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Just make sure to check the T&C;)

Or what is sometimes the favourite line in here is "The first 3 legs of my 4 leg mulit I have won, how do I hedge?":p

Carlton may help you out though and lose so you dont have to worry about your 4th leg.:p
 
I'm liking the Cats at -20.5.

Surprised there isn't much of a discussion on Essendon.

It is looking like there will be no Fyfe, Barlow, Walters and Mayne for Fremantle. Also Essendon won both their games at Subiaco last year.

Fletcher and Chapman may be out also but Essendon should have the depth.

At $2.15 they are looking very tasty.
 
Charlsy19 said:
I'm liking the Cats at -20.5.

Surprised there isn't much of a discussion on Essendon.

It is looking like there will be no Fyfe, Barlow, Walters and Mayne for Fremantle. Also Essendon won both their games at Subiaco last year.

Fletcher and Chapman may be out also but Essendon should have the depth.

At $2.15 they are looking very tasty.
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Pretty sure the only discussion in here has been for Essendon and Geelong.
 
I'm also liking the Collingwood line.

Richmond to be without: Hampson (1st ruck), (possibly) Deledio - missed out last weeks match vs. WB. Perhaps Foley may come back into the side. Were sluggish against the Bulldogs and just got over the line against Carlton the week before.

Collingwood to be without: Dwyer, Sinclair (both injured) - most likely inclusions J. Thomas and Kennedy (both B.O.G in last two VFL games respectively).

Current line I like: Collingwood (-7.5) - sportsbet. I reckon they'll clear this.
 
Okay the bookies have noticed my bets now & adjust their markets immediately after I take anything.

Took these 4 bets early this morning.

2U – Essendon SU @ $2.25 (Luxbet).
It was the longest H2H odds for ESS besides TAB. Within 10 minutes they down the market and now according to Sportspunter, they are the bookie paying the highest for Fremantle to win at $1.76. Could well be due to the injuries to Freo but even then they wouldn't be offering the highest odds for Freo of all bookies.

2U – Under WB/GWS 184.5 @ $1.88 (Sportsbet)

Bet365 had it at 182.5 & Sportsbet have adjusted it down to 182.5. It's a market not many people would be taking at all and normally Sportsbet don't mind leaving it a couple of points higher than Bet365.

1U – ESS +6.5 @ $1.91 (Bet365)

Down to +4.5 almost immediately afterwards.

2U – GEE HT/FT @ $1.73 (Sportsbet)

Immediately dropped to $1.68 after I took it now down to $1.60 but that is probably due to the weight of money on Cats ML.
 

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Aed0s said:
I'm also liking the Collingwood line.

Richmond to be without: Hampson (1st ruck), (possibly) Deledio - missed out last weeks match vs. WB. Perhaps Foley may come back into the side. Were sluggish against the Bulldogs and just got over the line against Carlton the week before.

Collingwood to be without: Dwyer, Sinclair (both injured) - most likely inclusions J. Thomas and Kennedy (both B.O.G in last two VFL games respectively).

Current line I like: Collingwood (-7.5) - sportsbet. I reckon they'll clear this.
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coming from a richmond supporter this will be easily cleared. out of touch and form with players missing and david atsbury potentially playing on travis cloke = horror show.
 
Agree on the Collingwood line. Apart from Round 1 they have been pretty good. A good hard fought win over Sydney and they only just fell short against the Cats. Compared to Richmond who have lost to GC and WB and only just scraped over the line against a pretty average Carlton team. Not that it means a whole lot given the teams positions in recent years but Richmond haven't beaten Collingwood since 2007. Certainly might play on Richmond's mind.

2U - Collingwood -7.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet)

Also going to add 1U on Essendon as well. Think this game is going to be very close with both teams missing a few. Doubt Chappy or Fletch will be risked over in the west but Ryder is a big in. Lot of key outs for Freo but they will bounce back after last weeks effort against the Hawks. Pearce and Sylvia will be welcome ins for them. Reckon $2.15 is overs for Essendon still so will take them at that.

1U - Essendon SU @ $2.15 (Sportsbet)

Liking Geelong at home against WC. Whilst I rate WC very highly, LeCras, Masten, Shuey are all confirmed outs with Ellis, Wellingham, Selwood and Nic Nat all pulling up sore with Selwood in the most doubt. Not 100% confident of the Geelong line at this stage but feel that if Geelong bring their A game it could blow out a bit. Will be a wet game by all reports so that will keep the scoring down. Sportinbet line enough for me at this stage to chuck a unit on.

1U - Geelong -20.5 @ $1.91 (Sportingbet)
 
Willzzz said:
2U – GEE HT/FT @ $1.73 (Sportsbet)

Immediately dropped to $1.68 after I took it now down to $1.60 but that is probably due to the weight of money on Cats ML.
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I actually do believe the Cats will win HT/FT this weekend, however interestingly in their last three games at Geelong, they have only won HT/FT - once, which was against the Crows and had the Crows kicked straight and not missed the two set shots, it would have been tied at HT.
 
Any thoughts on this for an early multi?
Coll line into carl HT/FT into geel HT/FT into adel line @ about $7-something
 

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Am I crazy thinking Brisbane are value @ $6.25? They have a good record against Port and and only lost to them by 9 points at aami late last year. Will take the +37.5 for sure.
 
The latest analysis from AFLpredictions is up! We continued our stellar year in round 3, betting on the Hawks, Bulldogs and Kangas (and Adelaide...). We also piled up on line bets on the Saints, Kangas, Dogs and Hawks (among a few smaller line bets). This week, there's some value in the following games:

Richmond at $2.440 (Bet 16.0% of pot)
Gold Coast at $4.380 (Bet 9.0% of pot)
St Kilda at $2.260 (Bet 25.0% of pot)
Fremantle at $1.800 (Bet 30.0% of pot)

Odds taken from Pinnacle. Lines not posted yet.

Check out http://AFLpredictions.wordpress.com for more details and a few other stats of interest.

Also, @AFLpredictions is on Twitter!
 
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GROTTO said:
I noticed on Sportingbet you can bet if the final total is an odd or an even number paying $1.95, Im not sure what shocked me more the fact that you can bet on this or that the book is making clearly money on this event.:rolleyes:
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yeah pretty rude of them to not give $2.10 odds. what next, a casino throwing a number on a roulette wheel that's not black or red but still paying evens on either colour? :eek:
 

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AFL 2014 ROUND 4

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